Why have the Twins been dumping so much salary and players the last couple years?

[ThePuck]

Are we required to believe what he says is right?

 

I'd amend that to: Are we required to believe what he says is the truth?

[TheLeviathan]

I'd amend that to: Are we required to believe what he says is the truth?

 

Nothing says truth like: What Businesses largely in the Public Eye say to the Media!

 

Lie or bend the truth?!? Never. I'm aghast at the thought.

[cmathewson]

No one is under that assumption. It is the opposite that some people are having problems grasping. Some are under the impression that a rebuild REQUIRES cutting payroll.

 

It comes down to this:

 

Player A costs $100 and has a 60% chance of being a useful player for you this year.

Player B costs $50 and has a 30% chance of being a useful player for you this year.

 

If money is supposedly not a factor, why would you not chose player A?

 

You wouldn't. That's where the evaluations of the odds of being a useful players differ between the Twins and the pundits on this site. Let's take two examples:

 

Player A = Brandon McCarthy (2 yrs/$15.5M)

Player B = Kevin Correia (2 yrs/$10M)

 

I believed that Player A had a 40% chance of being a useful player. I believed that Player B had a 25% chance of being a useful player. According to published reports (LENII), the Twins thought the opposite. To me, the odds were close enough that it wasn't worth getting too worked up about, especially since I didn't have access to a lot of information, like medical reports. According to LENIII, the Twins, they liked Correia's track record with innings vs. McCarthy's

 

I'm sure money was a consideration. Was it the primary consideration? I doubt it.

[Willihammer]

Just because Terry Ryan says something doesn't automatically mean it's wrong.

 

Jim I was trying to tap out there but if you want to go another round we can.

 

How do you reconcile this argument:

Or a lack of good free agent options this offseason.

with this fact:

- the clearly robust free agent pitching market that included one top of the rotation guy, one decent 2-3 type, a 3-4 type or two

[Oxtung]

I stand corrected - the clearly robust free agent pitching market that included one top of the rotation guy, one decent 2-3 type, a 3-4 type or two and a bunch of backend guys. Huge depth there.

 

Just because Terry Ryan says something doesn't automatically mean it's wrong.

 

I didn't realize that "above average" had become synonymous with "back end" of the rotation. They really should send text's out letting us all know about these definition changes.

[Oxtung]

Still not getting it. They all were going to regress significantly, Correia and Pelfrey included. None of them would be able to help the team win. In the final analysis, it didn't really matter whom they signed, as long as they could get some innings. That is what I have been saying.

 

If all that mattered was getting innings then why sign anybody? The Twins had plenty of pitchers in the minors who would have been ecstatic about playing MLB.

 

If this team is so doomed that talent doesn't matter why do we still have Willingham, Mauer, Morneau?

 

Or if we take your idea to the ultimate end....why play the games at all? Why not just forfeit and have our players work on their skills so that at some point in the future when we have that perfect roster we can go attempt to win the World Series again?

[drjim]

Jim I was trying to tap out there but if you want to go another round we can.

 

How do you reconcile this argument:

 

with this fact:

 

I would argue that 3-4 total guys above backend status represents a lack of good options. There are 30 teams in baseball, including many that would be more desirable than teams coming of consecutive 90 loss seasons.

[drjim]

I didn't realize that "above average" had become synonymous with "back end" of the rotation. They really should send text's out letting us all know about these definition changes.

 

I'm not following. I don't agree with many of the definitions people have used to describe the Twins signings.

[drjim]

I'd amend that to: Are we required to believe what he says is the truth?

 

I suppose on the issue in question (the depth of the free agent starting pitcher last offseason and his description of it as thin) it is quite easy to examine the list and come to your own conclusion. I agree with his assessment.

[Oxtung]

I'm not following. I don't agree with many of the definitions people have used to describe the Twins signings.

 

There were at least 15 starters available this off season that had been average or better over the last 3 years. You claim there were only 3-4 starters that weren't "back end status".

 

So "back end" must now include >average starters.

[ThePuck]

I suppose on the issue in question (the depth of the free agent starting pitcher last offseason and his description of it as thin) it is quite easy to examine the list and come to your own conclusion. I agree with his assessment.

 

So it's a pick and choose buffet when it comes to standing by what Ryan says?

 

If he knows more about baseball than everyone else, shouldn't everyone just agree with everything he says and does? Should cut down on the debates here, that's for sure. Then we can move on to how Gardy knows more about baseball and remove all debates about things related to his job too.

 

And so on, and so on...

[Willihammer]

I would argue that 3-4 total guys above backend status represents a lack of good options. There are 30 teams in baseball, including many that would be more desirable than teams coming of consecutive 90 loss seasons.

But those 3-4 guys are worth pursuing, yes? Especially when starting pitching is your biggest need?

[cmathewson]

If all that mattered was getting innings then why sign anybody? The Twins had plenty of pitchers in the minors who would have been ecstatic about playing MLB.

 

If this team is so doomed that talent doesn't matter why do we still have Willingham, Mauer, Morneau?

 

Or if we take your idea to the ultimate end....why play the games at all? Why not just forfeit and have our players work on their skills so that at some point in the future when we have that perfect roster we can go attempt to win the World Series again?

 

Great slippery slope there.

 

The odds are pretty low that any of the guys basically discarded by their teams were going to be "above average". The odds were pretty good that some of them would be serviceable: give us 175-200 innings with an era in the mid 4's. If a team did its homework, it could find a couple of guys to do that.

 

If you want above-average pitchers, you have to either develop them or acquire them before they have any major league experience. That's what the Twins did. The acquired front-of-the-rotation arms (Meyer, May) to complement their in-house guys (Gibson, Berrios). The ultimate goal is to build a rotation that can win a World Series.

 

Until those guys are ready, they got a few guys who can eat innings, and keep us in enough games to be respectable. Why is that so hard for you to understand?

[drjim]

So it's a pick and choose buffet when it comes to standing by what Ryan says?

 

If he knows more about baseball than everyone else, shouldn't everyone just agree with everything he says and does? Should cut down on the debates here, that's for sure. Then we can move on to how Gardy knows more about baseball and remove all debates about things related to his job too.

 

And so on, and so on...

 

Yes pick and choose. I don't agree with everything Ryan says or does that would be silly. I respect the man and think he is a damn good GM but I'm not a robot.

[drjim]

But those 3-4 guys are worth pursuing, yes? Especially when starting pitching is your biggest need?

 

Sure, but it doesn't mean you'll get them or that the contract is wise or that they even would want to come here.

[drjim]

There were at least 15 starters available this off season that had been average or better over the last 3 years. You claim there were only 3-4 starters that weren't "back end status".

 

So "back end" must now include >average starters.

 

Fair enough but I also come from the school of thought that there are only 10-15 or so top of the rotation guys. So in that sense you can be above average and still be a backend type.

[The Wise One]

And yet, other clubs had bad years and got right back up on their horses and went about retooling/reloading/rebuilding in one offseason and not cutting payroll. Furthermore, FA prices will be going up in the future, especially with the $25M infusion from the TV deal. These other clubs read the writing on the wall, why NOT the Twins?

 

By contrast, the conspiracy of cutting payroll by the Twins is right there in front of us, for all to see. And we're only in Year Two of the payroll-cutting. I was practically tarred and feathered all last year for saying the Twins were going to do what they actually had been doing, and then continued to do in the offseason, and appear more than happy to repeat next offseason. Can you find me the quote again from management about the "50% commitment" to the loyal and faithful fans for building them TF?

 

The Cubs loaded up on pitchers, how is that working?

Toronto took in half of the Miami Marlins. How is that working out?

How are the Dodgers doing?

[The Wise One]

There were at least 15 starters available this off season that had been average or better over the last 3 years. You claim there were only 3-4 starters that weren't "back end status".

 

So "back end" must now include >average starters.

15 that would be average or better? That opens a can of worms. Is average whatever you want it to mean? Of the uninjured I would count 7 on the list. Scott Baker, MIN *

Erik Bedard, PIT

Joe Blanton, LAD

Aaron Cook, BOS

Kevin Correia, PIT

Ryan Dempster, TEX

Scott Feldman, TEX *

Jeff Francis, COL

Freddy Garcia, NYY

Zack Greinke, LAA

Jeremy Guthrie, KC

Rich Harden, OAK

Dan Haren, LAA *

Edwin Jackson, WAS

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY

Francisco Liriano, CWS

Kyle Lohse, STL

Derek Lowe, NYY

Shaun Marcum, MIL

Jason Marquis, SD

Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS

Brandon McCarthy, OAK

Kevin Millwood, SEA

Roy Oswalt, TEX

Carl Pavano, MIN

Anibal Sanchez, DET

Jonathan Sanchez, COL

Joe Saunders, BAL

Carlos Villanueva, TOR

Chien-Ming Wang, WAS

Kip Wells, SD

Randy Wolf, BAL

Chris Young, NYM

Carlos Zambrano, MIA

 

I am still waiting on the slick fielding free agent shortstop that can hit you said the Twins should sign.

[The Wise One]

No one is under that assumption. It is the opposite that some people are having problems grasping. Some are under the impression that a rebuild REQUIRES cutting payroll.

 

It comes down to this:

 

Player A costs $100 and has a 60% chance of being a useful player for you this year.

Player B costs $50 and has a 30% chance of being a useful player for you this year.

 

If money is supposedly not a factor, why would you not chose player A?

 

Mythical player game. Mythical players must be what you are paying the ringers for a beer league team.

Mythical player B has a higher upside in that there is the 60% chance of turning into a more than useful player. Player A is on the downside of their career. Gee, do we build for the future or do we hope someone doesn't crap out? Building a team is for the longer haul, not one year at a time.

[Mike Sixel]

What's more risky, signing a very good to great player to a long term deal, or going with nothing? Somehow it is better to have no good pitchers for a couple of years, than to take the risk that at the end of a contract a guy might not be good?

 

I keep typing numbers to refute that Greinke would not have hurt their future salary structure, and not one person on the other side refutes the actual details of the analysis, they keep typing "it would hurt their future ability to sign players" without even looking at the salary structure at that point.

 

The Twins are cheap. They have plenty of money, and will not spend it. They get $25MM in free revenue next year, and lost every player but 1 that makes more than $4MM a year within 2 years. And people worry they could not sign Greinke or Sanchez. I don't get it.

[Mike Sixel]

Did anyone read the ESPN story this week about how bad the FA market will be next year? Don't worry, there are plenty of bargain basement bad players.....so the Twins will be active.....

[TheLeviathan]

Gee, do we build for the future or do we hope someone doesn't crap out? Building a team is for the longer haul, not one year at a time.

 

The thing about only building for the future is that it utterly ignores the present. (Some of which, mind you, is part of the future and it sure wouldn't hurt to have them winning now for any number of reasons)

 

And if the future never comes, for whatever reason, that just leaves you more present to ignore.

[TheLeviathan]

Did anyone read the ESPN story this week about how bad the FA market will be next year? Don't worry, there are plenty of bargain basement bad players.....so the Twins will be active.....

 

What, you didn't hear? Last year was historically awful and next year it will literally rain aces on teams for cheap three years with no risks at all.

[ThePuck]

Yes pick and choose. I don't agree with everything Ryan says or does that would be silly. I respect the man and think he is a damn good GM but I'm not a robot.

 

So if you're having a debate with someone and you agree with Ryan, you can flash that statement because it backs up your stance, but what happens if you disagree with Ryan and someone flashes that card at you?

 

And how is it that you can even disagree with him if, by what you said, he knows more about baseball than anyone here?

[Oxtung]

15 that would be average or better? That opens a can of worms. Is average whatever you want it to mean? Of the uninjured I would count 7 on the list. Scott Baker, MIN *

Erik Bedard, PIT

Joe Blanton, LAD

Aaron Cook, BOS

Kevin Correia, PIT

Ryan Dempster, TEX

Scott Feldman, TEX *

Jeff Francis, COL

Freddy Garcia, NYY

Zack Greinke, LAA

Jeremy Guthrie, KC

Rich Harden, OAK

Dan Haren, LAA *

Edwin Jackson, WAS

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY

Francisco Liriano, CWS

Kyle Lohse, STL

Derek Lowe, NYY

Shaun Marcum, MIL

Jason Marquis, SD

Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS

Brandon McCarthy, OAK

Kevin Millwood, SEA

Roy Oswalt, TEX

Carl Pavano, MIN

Anibal Sanchez, DET

Jonathan Sanchez, COL

Joe Saunders, BAL

Carlos Villanueva, TOR

Chien-Ming Wang, WAS

Kip Wells, SD

Randy Wolf, BAL

Chris Young, NYM

Carlos Zambrano, MIA

 

I am still waiting on the slick fielding free agent shortstop that can hit you said the Twins should sign.

 

Here we go with the eye test again. Well if you had read this thread you would know I was using ERA+. So yes, there actually were 15 above average pitchers this offseason; it would help if you posted a complete list of pitchers that were signed.

 

Your shortstop comment would have some merit if I had ever said that. However I do stand by this comment:

 

...we had huge holes at SS and 2 pitchers where we had no prospects showing they were ready to contribute. The Twins, instead of using their available payroll to find average or better replacements, decided to find pretty much the worst pitchers available this last off season and just pocket the cash.

 

As you can see nothing about gold glove winning, Cabrera-lite hitting shortstops mentioned; only pointed out we had a hole there and the Twins chose to sign 2 below average pitchers.

[drjim]

So if you're having a debate with someone and you agree with Ryan, you can flash that statement because it backs up your stance, but what happens if you disagree with Ryan and someone flashes that card at you?

 

And how is it that you can even disagree with him if, by what you said, he knows more about baseball than anyone here?

 

What are you talking about? I never appealed to Ryan to back up my position. I just said he is probably right more often than any of us, including me. And that was in response to someone asking if we should believe him - not necessarily in response to anything specific about my point.

[Oxtung]

The odds are pretty low that any of the guys basically discarded by their teams were going to be "above average".

So I decided to look into this a bit. In the last 2 off seasons (not counting 2013) there have been 12 pitchers that had posted an ERA+ >100 average for 3 seasons before becoming FA's. 8 of those 12 posted an ERA+ of >100 after signing FA contracts with a ninth posting a 96. Seems like not all FA pitchers fall off the proverbial cliff because they put pen to paper.

 

If you want above-average pitchers, you have to either develop them or acquire them before they have any major league experience.

 

Or sign them in free agency of course.

 

Until those guys are ready, they got a few guys who can eat innings, and keep us in enough games to be respectable. Why is that so hard for you to understand?

 

What's hard to understand is your insistence that signing good pitchers doesn't matter. What's hard to understand is the idea that you think Correia and Pelfrey coming off surgery are close enough to the "average pitcher" catagory to be nearly equivalent to actual average (or better) pitchers. What's hard to understand is the idea that the Twins should just automatically punt the season before it's begun because we think the Twins won't be any good.

[drjim]

What's more risky, signing a very good to great player to a long term deal, or going with nothing? Somehow it is better to have no good pitchers for a couple of years, than to take the risk that at the end of a contract a guy might not be good?

 

I keep typing numbers to refute that Greinke would not have hurt their future salary structure, and not one person on the other side refutes the actual details of the analysis, they keep typing "it would hurt their future ability to sign players" without even looking at the salary structure at that point.

 

The Twins are cheap. They have plenty of money, and will not spend it. They get $25MM in free revenue next year, and lost every player but 1 that makes more than $4MM a year within 2 years. And people worry they could not sign Greinke or Sanchez. I don't get it.

 

I'm not sure anyone disputes that you could fit his salary into the payroll structure going forward, more that it would eliminate the possibility of a similar signing in the future.

 

The more relevant questions are:

A. Would he actually want to sign here? Doubtful, as he basically forced the hand of Kansas City when there were suffering through similar futility as the Twins have the past two year. The promise of great prospects coming up did nothing to change his mind.

 

B. Would the Dodgers not match whatever top offer the Twin made? Doubtful as well, as they seem to have no limit to the amount of money they are willing to spend. Do you honestly believe the Twins would outbid the Dodgers, much less the Angels, Rangers, and other teams that were bidding? That is not realistic with the current revenue streams of the Twins compared to those franchises.

[Riverbrian]

That's cherry picking bad teams from the high payroll ranks. We could do the same with the bottom payroll teams which the Twins are one of. Looks like the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Cardinals, Nationals and Reds didn't make your list of teams spending over $100 million. The Cubs by the way have the 14th highest payroll and only 10 teams make the playoffs.

 

Say the Twins did sign Anibal Sanchez instead of Mike Pelfrey, and to get him away from Detroit, they gave him an extra $2 million a year, they still wouldn't be in the top 14. Or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18 or 19.

 

I fully admit to cherry picking. Listing the successful high payroll teams would not have fit my point. My point was... Here are a list of teams who spent and are gulping thus far in 2013. We can make another list from 2012 and 2011 and so forth.

 

I simply continue to care very little about payroll. I care to a point but can easily walk away from it because the Angels brought in Pujols... everyone predicted them to win it all and they didn't come close. This year they bring in Hamilton... Everyone predicted them to win it all and they are now talking about the end of Scioscia.

 

I think using the payroll argument is overly simplistic. That's all.

[old nurse]

 

Your shortstop comment would have some merit if I had ever said that. However I do stand by this comment:

 

.we had huge holes at SS and 2 pitchers where we had no prospects showing they were ready to contribute. The Twins, instead of using their available payroll to find average or better replacements, decided to find pretty much the worst pitchers available this last off season and just pocket the cash.

 

As you can see nothing about gold glove winning, Cabrera-lite hitting shortstops mentioned; only pointed out we had a hole there and the Twins chose to sign 2 below average pitchers.

 

I would read your comment as strongly saying the Twins should have signed a shortstop. As there were more holes this winter that needed to be filled than 2 starting pitchers and a SS I would have thought you thought the shortstop position should have been filled.

 

Your list of ERA+ leaders would have included Oswalt who is semi retired, Liriano,. Using three year data overlooks the downward trend of players.