Handbook Preview: 3 RP Reunions the Twins Should Consider

[Nick Nelson]

When the Twins have looked outside for late-inning relief help, it hasn't generally gone so well. (See: Emilio Pagán, Alex Colomé, Addison Reed.) 

This year's free agent market presents some opportunities to reconnect with a few former Twins who represent some of the brightest moments for bullpens of years past.

Image courtesy of Thomas Shea and David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

In our latest chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Scouring Free Agency for Late-Inning Relief Help," we zoomed in on a dozen different options from this year's class who could help relieve Jhoan Durán's burden in crunch time.

Among them are three former Twins relievers who will be available on the open market, and could be strong fits at the right price. Caretakers can read about all 12 targets in the full chapter – now available along with our previously released Handbook installments – but here are the blurbs on three familiar names:

Michael Fulmer, RHP
Age: 29 (DOB: 3/15/93)
Former Team: Twins
Career fWAR: 10.1

An appealing target for several reasons, beginning with the fact that he pitched (well) for the Twins in the second half and has some familiarity here. Fulmer was the most low-profile of Minnesota's three deadline pitcher acquisitions, but the only one that panned out. While not at the dominance level of the above pitchers, he's been consistently good since transitioning from starter to reliever, and as a 29-year-old coming off his first full-time relief campaign, he still might have room for growth. I'd consider him a worthy top bullpen pickup. 

• Estimated Contract: 2 years, $14 million

Taylor Rogers, LHP
Age: 31 (DOB: 12/17/90)
Former Team: Brewers
Career fWAR: 8.1

Now here's an interesting case. It's essentially an opportunity to reverse the trade from last spring, swapping Rogers back in for Emilio Pagán. That might not sound terribly enticing given that Rogers actually had a worse ERA (4.76) than Pagán (4.43) in 2022, but Rogers' secondary numbers painted a much brighter picture: 11.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.32 FIP. Granted, Twins fans have heard that story before, but the lefty's finger seems fine and his down year could create the opportunity to bring him back at a bargain. 

• Estimated Contract: 2 years, $12 million

Trevor May, RHP
Age: 33 (DOB: 9/23/89)
Former Team: Mets
Career fWAR: 5.5

May's two-year, $15 million deal with the Mets yielded 87.2 IP, a 4.00 ERA, and 14 home runs allowed. Not too impressive. It also yielded a 3.78 FIP and 11.6 K/9 rate as he continued to pump gas in the upper 90s. Injuries ravaged his 2022 campaign – a familiar story, as Twins fans know – so he might be had at a bargain. May's absence in Minnesota's bullpen the past two years has been noticeable; they miss his fire, his energy, his premium stuff. If he's open to returning, the hard-throwing righty would offer some nice López insurance. 

• Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million

Which of these reunions appeals most to you? Share your thoughts, and make sure to grab the full Handbook chapter and research all of the best available options. From there, you can build your own offseason blueprint.

View full article

[Mark G]

While I wouldn't exactly send hate mail to the FO if they signed any of the 3, none of the 3 excite me all that much.  Fulmer might have the lead in this extremely humble observer's opinion, but I would still look long and hard for an upgrade from the past, rather than a stroll down memory lane.  

[dxpavelka]

I love it.  Bring back May.  Make Duran the ace starter so desperately needed and avoid the same mistake we made by not giving May a shot to be a starter eight years ago.  This team hasn't listened to my advice for 30 years.  And they have NOTHING to show for it.  Bout time they start.

[tony&rodney]

Last season was somewhat unusual in the usage of starting pitchers, which put a strain on the bullpen. If that strategy is the new norm or even repeated in 2023, then the Twins will likely need to use finances for relief pitchers that should be allocated elsewhere. A decent starting staff stretched out means the current options only need to be buttressed with a number of guys picked up for minimum dollars.

Duran and Lopez are fair options on the back end of a bullpen. Jax and Thielbar will be joined by a healthy return from Jorge Alcala and Kenta Maeda, who I believe will be best in a relief role especially early in the year. Jovani Moran is ready for important innings and Guys like Ronnie Henriquez and Josh Winder will be useful in the bullpen too. We might see an effective return of Cody Stashak as well. I'm pretty optimistic about the current arms in the Twins system slated for roles in a bullpen.

A few guys out there, like David Robertson, Matt Moore, and Rafael Montero, look interesting but I'm more keen to see improvements at catcher (Murphy) and starting pitcher along with a right handed bat like Haniger.

[DJL44]

Is this the Charley Walters strategy?

[Doctor Gast]

I like both Fulmer & Rogers, Here at MN we know that Rogers is an excellent RP when not pitched on consecutive days. So when SD didn't pitch him that way and is no wonder that after his early success he crashed. Brewers are interested in signing him. Rogers has always been a great fit here.

Fulmer pitched well here and fits well here, I'd pursue him but there should be a lot of competition for him. Hopefully he liked it here enough to stay.

[jorgenswest]

I wouldn’t want Rogers in a closer role but I think he can be very effective late inning pitcher strategically used to face more left handed hitters. Take a look at the splits from last year or his career. I think he has the best upside of the three.

[mnfireman]

Fulmer - maybe

Rogers - no

May - no

Pagan pitched as well (???) as any of the 3 listed above and gets no love, his secondary/rate numbers are the best of the 3. He will get about $3.5M in arbitration, but he is from another organization (outsider). 

I am NOT saying Pagan is the answer, but his late season numbers (after accepting coaching??), salary and rate numbers say he is as good or better of an option than the 3 former Twins suggested.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

26 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Fulmer - maybe

Rogers - no

May - no

Pagan pitched as well (???) as any of the 3 listed above and gets no love, his secondary/rate numbers are the best of the 3. He will get about $3.5M in arbitration, but he is from another organization (outsider). 

I am NOT saying Pagan is the answer, but his late season numbers (after accepting coaching??), salary and rate numbers say he is as good or better of an option than the 3 former Twins suggested.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo !

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Maybe yes to Fullmer and Rogers. No to May. 

[mikelink45]

". The base rate for relievers is that they don’t last — when viewed over four-year periods, they either get hurt, lose effectiveness or both."  Law on the Athletic talking about the Diaz contract, but it is something we need to consider.  We signed Pagan thinking we could fix him, we traded for Lopez because he was hot and we hoped it would continue.  RP are an issue.  In this era we overuse them and a good year is often follow by a bad one.  

We do better to develop a RP (we have a lot of minor leaguers who will not be in the rotation) and avoid the veteran trap and I think that is true of going backward for relievers we have had in the past.  Move on. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I think they will bring Fullmer back, but at a slightly lesser rate.  Something like 2/$10 would be fine.

I like Rogers on a semi make-good contract.  Bring him back to where he had success.  Something like 1/$5 with a team option of 1/$10 on the back.

I like May as well on another make good contract.  1/$4 with appearances incentives that could push it to $6.

We aren't necessarily looking for top end guys here, we need upper middle depth.  These three could easily provide that   

[LA VIkes Fan]

I like these ideas. None of these 3 are likely to be lights out back end guys but each could provide some critical mid level depth. I would like to see them re-sign Fullmer for 2 years like you have it, and would actually give Rogers a little more if necessary, maybe 1/$7 with an option at 1/$9. He is left handed and breathing with some track record so he may be popular. May is a bigger risk so I would only sign him to the kind of incentive based deal that you mention.   

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

All three of these guys can pitch multiple innings on alternate days.  That is exactly what we need to get away from the 1 RP per inning strategy.

Fulmer - Yes

Rogers - Yes

May - Maybe, depending on the cost

Any of these could be signed to two-year contracts with a mutual option after the first year for flexibility.

[Mike Sixel]

Not a fan, but I wouldn't hate it either....but I don't see any of them as difference makers (so how are they better than what they have?).

[miller761]

I would not give up on Pagan. If wrong he has only cost you 2.5 million. His stuff and late season performance warrant another look. Many a relief pitcher has put up good to great numbers after a terrible or mediocre season. Of course many have fallen after a good or great season. The point is this: bullpen arms are very volatile in terms of results. Pagan is worth the chance again considering his stuff.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

All three of these guys can pitch multiple innings on alternate days.  That is exactly what we need to get away from the 1 RP per inning strategy.

Fulmer - Yes

Rogers - Yes

May - Maybe, depending on the cost

Any of these could be signed to two-year contracts with a mutual option after the first year for flexibility.

Neither May nor Rogers are remotely close to multi-inning pitchers, especially Rogers who I recall being awful in his 4th hitter faced, and worse in back to back games.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, miller761 said:

I would not give up on Pagan. If wrong he has only cost you 2.5 million. His stuff and late season performance warrant another look. Many a relief pitcher has put up good to great numbers after a terrible or mediocre season. Of course many have fallen after a good or great season. The point is this: bullpen arms are very volatile in terms of results. Pagan is worth the chance again considering his stuff.

He’s had 3 bad seasons in a row. I’m begging the Twins. Please give up on him. 

[roger]

Not interested in these three.  I want to see the Twins get quality over quantity.  They are gonna have an extra $35M from Correa alone, not counting all the dollars from the rest of the guys released.  Go out and get the best damn reliever on the market.  Added to Lopez and Duran at the back end of games, that would be the Royales from when they were champs.  There are lots of other solid guys to fill out the earlier innings already in the organization, get a third stud to close out games.

[Game7-91]

Rogers is interesting, he's so specialized and limited, but we have seen how effective he potentially is within those limits. Fulmer acquitted himself well here, he would be a fine addition, hard no on May at this point....   I'm with Roger:

44 minutes ago, roger said:

I want to see the Twins get quality over quantity.

My hope and heart says they take a serious run at Montero, but my head says we will be picking through some bargain bin leftovers and hoping some of the current roster develops. 

[DocBauer]

My personal 2023 bullpen is based on 3 things. 

1] Talent on hand.

2] Needs.

3] Health.

Duran is a STUD. Lopez has tremendous stuff. Did anyone expect him to do what he did in his first year as a reliever and continue to do it? I didn't.  I seldom if ever expect a player to just continue to be amazing during a transition time and movement between franchises. But he has some wicked stuff. Unless the Twins mess him up, they have a great arm to work with and make him an important part of 2023. I believe in Jax. I believe Thielbar still has the stuff. Moran has done nothing at the ML level to say he isn't about ready to take on a serious role. A healthy Alcala could make a huge difference. He's got the stuff and really flashed late in 2021. 

There is a base for an excellent pen in 2023 based on what is on hand. But it needs more. I'm OK with Rogers, healthy and ready to go. But maybe Hand is the better option. And, IMO, whoever is added should be Fulmer quality or better. Fulmer has been pretty damn good since his conversion a year and a half ago. He's NOT been a "lights out" guy so far, but he's been a solid 6-7th inning guy.. 

I love Rogers. But if hand comes at the same price, or slightly above, I'm probably in on Hand. But I'm not going to be disappointed on Fulmer back again.

The biggest question is the guys who fill the middle relief role.

[beckmt]

Fullmer is the only one of the three I am interested in.  Alcala will be back (hopefully) and we have others we can look at. There should be plenty of options better than Rodgers, May and Pagan. 

[CRF]

I'd be mostly ok with Fulmer, and maybe Rogers depending on the deal. Don't want May back at all. 

[rv78]

No, No, and No. If a Championship is the goal the Twins have to stop aiming low. Interestingly there is another article here on Twins Daily about a pitcher called Pressly. None of these 3 are anywhere close to his caliber, which is the ONLY type of pitcher they should be looking to acquire. When you always settle for 2nd best or less you will always be 2nd best or less. Go big or go home. Pitching wins Championships.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

14 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Neither May nor Rogers are remotely close to multi-inning pitchers, especially Rogers who I recall being awful in his 4th hitter faced, and worse in back to back games.

That's precisely why I said alternate days which should make Rogers fresher on the days he does pitch.

[Andy Brodie]

Will there be a single-file version of the complete Offseason Handbook? Thanks!

[nicksaviking]

After his misadventures backpacking through San Diego and Milwaukee, I presume Taylor Rodgers is camped outside Target Field begging to have his old room back.

[Craig Arko]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

After his misadventures backpacking through San Diego and Milwaukee, I presume Taylor Rodgers is camped outside Target Field begging to have his old room back.

And with a load split with Duran and Lopez, I hope he gets it.

[ashbury]

On 11/8/2022 at 6:52 AM, Andy Brodie said:

Will there be a single-file version of the complete Offseason Handbook? Thanks!