In First Move of Off Season, Twins Pick Up Sonny Gray's Option

[Peter Labuza]

Only hours after the end of the World Series, the Twins have made the first off season news by keeping Sonny Gray.

Monday Update: The Twins made the Gray decision official. They also announced that they have declined the 2023 options for RHPs Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, and infielder Miguel Sano. 

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins have made their first move of the offseason, one that should come as a surprise to no one, by picking up an option on Sonny Gray’s 2023 contract for $12.5 million. Unless a long-term deal is reached before then, Gray will become a free agent at the end of 2023 season. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the scoop. If the Twins do not plan on signing any free agent starters (which should not - and will not - be the case), Gray will almost certainly be considered for the top slot of the rotation for 2023. 

There was little thought within stories from the front office or the Twins community at large that the Twins would part ways with the pitcher. Gray made 24 starts over the 2022 season, pitching just shy of 120 innings. His 3.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP were the best since 2019. Although his strikeout rate was down, Gray managed to keep his walks to the minimum and generally got out of a number of dangerous jams this season that made him one of the more reliable pitchers on the mound. Of his 24 attempts, Gray posted nine quality starts, defined as six completed innings with three or less runs. He remains particularly strong against left-handed batters, holding them to a .202 BA this season. 

The question remains whether the Twins may attempt a long-term extension with the pitcher or keep his option open as a trade deadline candidate if the season runs away from the Twins as it did in 2021. Gray’s 119 2/3 innings was the lowest since 2017 in Oakland, dealing with multiple IL stints this season due to lower back soreness. However, the Twins new athletic trainer Nick Paparesta worked with Gray during his time in Oakland. Questions about injuries and recoveries will hang over Gray as much as the entire rotation and thus may play a role in whether such extensions are offered. 

The Minnesota Twins traded for Gray right after the end of Major League Baseball’s lockout on the players during negotiations for a Collective Bargaining Agreement, giving away their 2021 first-round draft pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds. Between his strong stuff and age, Gray has formed something of a veteran leader among a pitching staff to likely be dependent on rookies. Although no one could expect otherwise, Twins fans should welcome another year of the ace on the mound.

With the World Series now complete, impending free agents are now free agents. Gray is one of several Twins players with a club option for 2023. It is certain that the Twins will not pick up Miguel Sano's option for 2023. And Carlos Correa will formally announce his decision to opt-out of his contract soon too. 

The news became official on Monday when the Twins announced that Gray's option was picked up. Also, the Twins declined the options on Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Miguel Sano. 

 

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[CRF]

Makes sense. No surprise that they did. 

[roger]

Will second CRF’s comment.

 I remain hopeful that they get more games out of him next season as he really is capable of being a solid #1.  Expect they would wait to extend him, if he is interested ?, until they see how healthy he is and how well Louie and SWR do in 2023.

[Cris E]

28 minutes ago, roger said:

Will second CRF’s comment.

 I remain hopeful that they get more games out of him next season as he really is capable of being a solid #1.  Expect they would wait to extend him, if he is interested ?, until they see how healthy he is and how well Louie and SWR do in 2023.

Ever since his first injury in 2016 he's had only one year where he's been healthy and taken the ball every start (2019 31 GS, 175 IP.)  Other than that he hit 162 IP one time and then it seems you're only going to get about 130-135 IP in a couple dozens starts, much like this past season. They are pretty good starts, so that's great  production if you price in the fact that he's going to miss 20% or more of a full season. The Falvine were able to get that type of contract with Buxton, and they should extend Sonny as well if he's willing to meet them out there in the middle, land of Games Started incentives.

[gman]

Gray turns 33 tomorrow, if he waits until he is a free agent after next season to sign a long term contract he will be entering that agreement at age 34. Which I think will make it difficult for anyone to offer him a deal past 3 years, if that long. I think the Twins could lock him up for a total of 4 years at a fairly reasonable price around $75 mil.

[Old fox]

The Twins are off to a great start to the off season! 

[Mike Sixel]

Good decision 

[Mark G]

"Twins fans should welcome another year of the ace on the mound."

As much as I like Gray, and as happy as I am that they picked up the option, I have to ask myself:  how far has baseball fallen when someone with 120 innings and only 9 quality starts is talked about as an "ace"?  

I must be getting old.  ?
:

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, roger said:

Will second CRF’s comment.

 I remain hopeful that they get more games out of him next season as he really is capable of being a solid #1.  Expect they would wait to extend him, if he is interested ?, until they see how healthy he is and how well Louie and SWR do in 2023.

That makes a lot of sense.  They need to come up with two SPs to replace Mahle / Gray between Varland / SWR / Winder / Paddack and perhaps Sands or Dobnak could surprise us.  If they have that depth, they can easily afford to go out and get a true front of the rotation guy in free agency that is at least as good as Gray and Younger.  

[tony&rodney]

Gray getting his option picked up was a no brainer. I wouldn't extend him though.

[Steve71]

I would not do 4/$75M for Gray, and I like him.  Just over $21M per year for his age 34-36 seasons seems like a massive overpay, especially given his injury history.  Backs are tricky things, and never seem to get better with age.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Hopefully Gray has a better year next season than Petty has.

[Vanimal46]

No brainer. There’s also no reason to extend him until we find out more about the pitching prospects after 2023. 

[beckmt]

I also don't think you should extend him.  If he has a good year make him a QO for 2024, then move on.  Some pitchers can pitch well from 35 - 40, most don't. 

[mikelink45]

It was never in question, but has he talked to Rocco about how he wants to be handled?

[Whitey333]

Yes I too am happy and totally unsurprised by this common sense move.  I agree with a previous poster about how low the standards have become for starting pitchers.  It's so sad to see the continued demise of the once great game.

[Otaknam]

They should extend Gray but not for four years at $75 million. That would be ridiculous! Another year or two extension at $12 million per year for a pitcher with a long injury history seems fair to me. Rocco’s myopic handling of starters just might actually be what Gray needs: five inning starts and 130 innings factoring in the IL that always happens with him. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

It was never in question, but has he talked to Rocco about how he wants to be handled?

?

[Karbo]

I can't help but wonder what his stats would look like if he was handled by a better coaching staff.

[jorgenswest]

Sonny Gray was placed on the IL in April, May and September. I think most teams would have been cautious with his use after those two early season injuries. 

[Blyleven2011]

Well we now move into stage 2 of the sonny gray prediction  ...

Now that the FO office has extended sonny Gray's option and he is a twins pitcher currently for them in the 2023 season  ...

Now we will wait and see in the next week or so if sonny gray will request or demand a trade  ...

It's 50 / 50 now ...

I'm still predicting sonny gray will  request a trade and though we wouldn't get a petty type pitcher in return  we would get some good prospects  as every team needs or wants pitching ...

I love my twins but if I was considered an ace I would not play for the twins  plan of the FO and manager  ... 

I'm just having alittle fun here so don't take it seriously , but I could be right and he has every right to request a trade   ...

It's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I have zero concerns about a Sonny Gray "trade demand".  This isnt the NBA or the NFL.

A follow up question:   Other than his one comment to the media about pitching longer into games mid-season, has there been any news about him not wanting to pitch in MInnesota?  I do not recall seeing or hearing anything other than that comment.

Assuming he would want to come back, I would look at an incentive laden contract extension.  Something along the lines of 2/$24 with 3rd year option and incentives based on starts made.  If they are paying him $15-18 per year, he is probably earning it.

[chpettit19]

53 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Well we now move into stage 2 of the sonny gray prediction  ...

Now that the FO office has extended sonny Gray's option and he is a twins pitcher currently for them in the 2023 season  ...

Now we will wait and see in the next week or so if sonny gray will request or demand a trade  ...

It's 50 / 50 now ...

I'm still predicting sonny gray will  request a trade and though we wouldn't get a petty type pitcher in return  we would get some good prospects  as every team needs or wants pitching ...

I love my twins but if I was considered an ace I would not play for the twins  plan of the FO and manager  ... 

I'm just having alittle fun here so don't take it seriously , but I could be right and he has every right to request a trade   ...

It's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

Sonny Gray isn't considered an ace, though. 

Sonny Gray hasn't averaged 6 innings a start since 2017. He became a fulltime starter in 2014 and in his 9 seasons he's averaged 6 innings a start 3 times. His first 2 seasons he averaged 6.6 and 6.7 innings per start. Since then he's gone 5.3, 6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.1, 5.2, and finally 5 with the Twins last year. He's been with 4 teams now, and other than his first 2 seasons he's been used basically the same way with all 4 of them. We need to quit with this talk that the Twins were doing something crazy with Gray last year and he is super mad about it. Were there starts that he was pulled before he should have been? Absolutely. Did that likely upset him? Absolutely. But his overall body of work was pretty much right in line with who he's been for years now. And it produced his 2nd best ERA since 2015.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I have enjoyed watching Sonny Gray pitch for the Twins this past year. I hope 2023 will be a huge success for him with the Twins. I think it will be. (cough -petty-cough).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Sonny Gray isn't considered an ace, though. 

Sonny Gray hasn't averaged 6 innings a start since 2017. He became a fulltime starter in 2014 and in his 9 seasons he's averaged 6 innings a start 3 times. His first 2 seasons he averaged 6.6 and 6.7 innings per start. Since then he's gone 5.3, 6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.1, 5.2, and finally 5 with the Twins last year. He's been with 4 teams now, and other than his first 2 seasons he's been used basically the same way with all 4 of them. We need to quit with this talk that the Twins were doing something crazy with Gray last year and he is super mad about it. Were there starts that he was pulled before he should have been? Absolutely. Did that likely upset him? Absolutely. But his overall body of work was pretty much right in line with who he's been for years now. And it produced his 2nd best ERA since 2015.

Well... this post makes complete sense and should put an end to the assumptions/rumors/questioning when the Twins pulled Gray. But I still have a nagging thought where I wonder how Gray would pitch, if the Twins let him pitch an inning or even two innings deeper into his games. Just saying. 

[DJL44]

Don't be surprised if you see free agent prices rise dramatically this offseason. There are a lot of teams with money to spend and lots of certainty due to the signed CBA. The Edwin Diaz contract (5 years, $102M for a reliever) is just the start.

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Sonny Gray isn't considered an ace, though. 

Sonny Gray hasn't averaged 6 innings a start since 2017. He became a fulltime starter in 2014 and in his 9 seasons he's averaged 6 innings a start 3 times. His first 2 seasons he averaged 6.6 and 6.7 innings per start. Since then he's gone 5.3, 6, 5.6, 5.6, 5.1, 5.2, and finally 5 with the Twins last year. He's been with 4 teams now, and other than his first 2 seasons he's been used basically the same way with all 4 of them. We need to quit with this talk that the Twins were doing something crazy with Gray last year and he is super mad about it. Were there starts that he was pulled before he should have been? Absolutely. Did that likely upset him? Absolutely. But his overall body of work was pretty much right in line with who he's been for years now. And it produced his 2nd best ERA since 2015.

You say this like it is true, average innings per start isn't really a good start unless you dig into way it is what it is. Maybe average start based on earned runs would be better. Because his average start where he game up 3 or less runs was much higher in the past than it was with the Twins (I left out 18 because he had so many relief games but is was pretty much give up less than 3 runs and start the 6th)

In 17 he started 27 games and in 21 of those he started the 6th inning, 19 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5.

In 19 he started 31 games and in 20 of those he started the 6th inning, 17 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5.

In 20 he started 11 games and in 7 of those he started the 6th, 5 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5.

In 21 he started 26 games and 10 of those he started the 6th, 9 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5.

In 22 he stared 24 games and in 9 of those he started and completed the 6th. 5 games he went 5.

His problem is the past is there has been too many games he just wasn't good, In 17 the only games he didn't go at least 5 where games he gave up more than 4 runs and there was only 1 game where he didn't complete 5 giving up less than 3 earned runs and he went 5 2/3. In 19 there was only two games where he had given up 2 runs or less that he didn't finish the 6th. In 20 there was only two games he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 21 there were 3 games where he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 22 there were 9 games (more than a 1/3 of his starts) where he gave up 2 or less earned runs that he didn't start the 6th.

I am not saying they did something crazy or even wrong with Gray last year, just pointing out that what you are saying isn't exactly accurate.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

If Gray can make it through the early season without trips to the IL I think we will see him go beyond 100 pitches. If he makes two trips to the IL in the first two months like last year it would seem wise to take opportunities to limit his innings.

Gray was upset being pulled from an August game against the Royals where dominated the first 6 innings and his pitch count was 92. Joe Ryan later in the season had almost the same performance after 6 innings (94 pitches) against the Royals. He was given a 7th inning and finished at 106 pitches. It was the 7th time Ryan went over 100 pitches, Gray never reached that threshold.

I expect Gray will go longer in games in 2023 as long as he is pitching effectively and staying healthy. 

[chpettit19]

58 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Well... this post makes complete sense and should put an end to the assumptions/rumors/questioning when the Twins pulled Gray. But I still have a nagging thought where I wonder how Gray would pitch, if the Twins let him pitch an inning or even two innings deeper into his games. Just saying. 

There were times they pulled him when they certainly could've let him go longer, but there were also a number of short starts that bring his inning per start numbers down because he either got rocked and didn't make it that deep or he got hurt and that shortened things. Sonny Gray is not a workhorse starter. He hasn't been for years. There's definitely some games where I wished they'd have let him go longer, but he's also someone who's proven for most of his career that he's not going to throw 160+ (only topped it 4 times in his whole career) innings, let alone 200. I think the Twins were trying to get a higher number of starts out of him than having him go deeper in a smaller number of starts. He's just not the workhorse people want him to be. Hasn't been for a long time. It's why he's make 12.5 mil and not 20+.

[chpettit19]

52 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You say this like it is true, average innings per start isn't really a good start unless you dig into way it is what it is. Maybe average start based on earned runs would be better. Because his average start where he game up 3 or less runs was much higher in the past than it was with the Twins (I left out 18 because he had so many relief games but is was pretty much give up less than 3 runs and start the 6th)

In 17 he started 27 games and in 21 of those he started the 6th inning, 19 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5.

In 19 he started 31 games and in 20 of those he started the 6th inning, 17 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5.

In 20 he started 11 games and in 7 of those he started the 6th, 5 of those he completed the 6th. 2 games he went 5.

In 21 he started 26 games and 10 of those he started the 6th, 9 of those he completed the 6th. 6 games he went 5.

In 22 he stared 24 games and in 9 of those he started and completed the 6th. 5 games he went 5.

His problem is the past is there has been too many games he just wasn't good, In 17 the only games he didn't go at least 5 where games he gave up more than 4 runs and there was only 1 game where he didn't complete 5 giving up less than 3 earned runs and he went 5 2/3. In 19 there was only two games where he had given up 2 runs or less that he didn't finish the 6th. In 20 there was only two games he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 21 there were 3 games where he gave up 2 runs or less and didn't start the 6th. In 22 there were 9 games (more than a 1/3 of his starts) where he gave up 2 or less earned runs that he didn't start the 6th.

I am not saying they did something crazy or even wrong with Gray last year, just pointing out that what you are saying isn't exactly accurate.

 

 

In 2 extra starts in 2021 he had 1 more start where he went into the 6th, 0 extra starts where he completed the 6th, and 1 more start that he completed the 5th. I acknowledged that there were games they pulled him too early, but those numbers aren't that impressive. The obvious argument is that 2021 was coming off the shortened season so they were being careful with him. My argument is that that's what the Twins were doing in 2022 based on in season injuries.

When you look at the starts he had in 2022 where he was pulled after 5 without giving up 3 runs you see the starts on May 7 and June 15th were both his first start back after an injury, and within 2 starts he was up to 6+ inning starts in both cases. In fact after the 4 innings, 0 earned start on May 7th he went 4.1 and 2 earned on May 13, then went 6 innings, 7 innings, 6 innings on May 18, 24, and 29 before hurting his pec in that start on the 29th and missing more time. So I'd say they were letting him build back up into more innings after a shortened spring training that saw him start even later than the rest of the league due to the trade. It was early in the year so they gave him 2 games to work back up to 6 innings. After 3 starts of 6+ innings he was hurt again.

He came back and went 5 innings, 4 innings (3 earned, 4 total allowed), then 7 innings. He followed that up with 3 ok, to really bad starts then was at 6 innings again before finishing the year with a bunch of 5 or 6 inning starts before going on the IL again. Sonny Gray isn't a workhorse. I think they had very good reason to pull him early a couple times in May/June after he had hit the IL after just 2 starts to begin the year. There was some load management for him, and I think they were too conservative with him a few times when they were still in the hunt, but when you go game by game through it there was good reason for why his numbers look the way they did.