More questions than Catcher and SS

[stringer bell]

Miranda was a key contributor while the Twins were holding first place, but did fade quite a bit late along with most of the team. I think his body of work will get him on the team to start the season no matter what. If he were to struggle in April, he could be sent down. 
 

Miranda’s defense wasn’t good this year, but there is no reason he can’t be adequate at either corner. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Well over at Baseball Ref. his Player-value Batting is:

oWAR 1.7  --   Urshela 2.8

dWAR -1.2  -- Urshels  0.7 

oRAR 17  --   Urshela 27

He is not a, sure in, by any means; spring training will be very important for him. (DH may  be his place)

You missed the entire point of that post. We're talking about an up and coming top young hitter who had a brutal start to his career as he adjusted to the league, but after he was recalled he was the 3rd best hitter on the team. I know you hate prospects so I'm just going to end this back and forth right here because I know your stance on young players playing.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I can play the selective endpoints game too.

Last 28 games

Miranda .250/.318/.350

Urshela .381/.451/.485

Arraez .329/.365/.405

Miranda had a hot June and July, the league adjusted to him and he went cold. We will see if he can make the next adjustment.

Urshela didn't really do anything out of the ordinary last season. He should be able to repeat. I hope Miranda out-hits him because considering his lousy fielding he will need to if he wants to contribute.

There's a difference between going off when a rookie is recalled and just picking a random chunk of games.

Gio is going to be 31 years old next year and has 1 other full season in his entire career where he was a fulltime major league regular. He's played on 4 major league teams. He's a veteran journeyman with 1 other full season of being a regular and having an OPS+ over 100. The Yankees didn't trade him for Josh Donaldson because a 121 OPS+ isn't "out of the ordinary" for him. Nobody was expecting him to do that because he's not that type of player. And his defense isn't even significantly better than Miranda's. People just fell in love with him when he had a few highlight plays in a short period of time. He's a decent defender, but nothing amazing.

I want Urshela on the team and think he's a useful player. But there's a 50/50 chance he's nontendered and isn't even on the Twins in 2023. He's not blocking Miranda, or any other top young player, from being a starter in 2023.

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You missed the entire point of that post. We're talking about an up and coming top young hitter who had a brutal start to his career as he adjusted to the league, but after he was recalled he was the 3rd best hitter on the team. I know you hate prospects so I'm just going to end this back and forth right here because I know your stance on young players playing.

Do not hate them,  but sure as heck do not talk about them like they will be the second coming as so, so many here do,  Chimeras are not reality.

There are a lot of  - up and coming  -  that never come up or show they do not belong, I treat them all that way until they prove other wise.

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Gio is going to be 31 years old next year and has 1 other full season in his entire career where he was a fulltime major league regular.

His age is correct but the rest of that is false. Urshela was the starting 3B for the Yankees 2019-21. In those seasons he had OPS+ of 133, 137 and 91. 2021 was a down year but he bounced back nicely in 2022 at 121 OPS+ which is right in line with his average production over the last 4 years. A simple Marcel projection for 2023 would have him basically repeating 2022.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have some holes. I think they have a fair start at filling their relief issues with an expected positive return from both Jorge Alcala and Kenta Maeda. I also think the younger guys like Josh Winder and Ronnie Henriquez could surprise in the bullpen. They could overspend on a RH OF bat by picking up Mitch Haniger, although that bidding may go higher than the Twins preference. The struggle to lure a top shortstop may be rough but I'm one to be good with Elvis Andrus for $8M even if he may choose another team. Austin Martin or Brooks Lee are worth a shot as fallbacks. Of course, Correa solves the position best of all. This leaves catcher and starting pitching. One solid option is to sign a pitcher for once, but it sure looks like a trade or two will be needed to fill the other needs. Kirilloff isn't worth much right now, but the Twins could part with just about anyone else in the right deal. Deals for any of Sean Murphy, Danny Jansen, Pablo Lopez, Edward Cabrera, Brandon Woodruff, or others may be tough discussions but let's hope there are conversations from teams that have a high interest in some of our guys.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I can play the selective endpoints game too.

Last 28 games

Miranda .250/.318/.350

Urshela .381/.451/.485

Arraez .329/.365/.405

Miranda had a hot June and July, the league adjusted to him and he went cold. We will see if he can make the next adjustment.

Urshela didn't really do anything out of the ordinary last season. He should be able to repeat. I hope Miranda out-hits him because considering his lousy fielding he will need to if he wants to contribute.

Urshela accumulated 2.4 fWAR last year his career fWAR since 2015 is 5.8. That’s 41% of “value” over 7 seasons.

he’s done it once before, but also had several seasons of 0 and negative.

I wouldn’t expect Gio to put up another 2 WAR season in ‘23

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

His age is correct but the rest of that is false. Urshela was the starting 3B for the Yankees 2019-21. In those seasons he had OPS+ of 133, 137 and 91. 2021 was a down year but he bounced back nicely in 2022 at 121 OPS+ which is right in line with his average production over the last 4 years. A simple Marcel projection for 2023 would have him basically repeating 2022.

"Full year" was a pretty important part of my post. Sorry I'm not sold by his 43 games in 2020. Shoot, you were mad I cut off the first 19 games of Miranda's career and now you're selling barely twice that as some sort of significant game total. And, again, the Yankees didn't trade him and take on Donaldson's entire contract because they thought he was good enough to be their starting 3B in 2022. Or did they just really, really want Rortvedt or IKF? He's got a career OPS+ of 104. Career wRC+ of 104. He's a league average hitter career journeyman. That's a useful player worthy of a roster spot, but let's quit pretending he's some sort of above average player. He's not. I wouldn't bet on him being nontendered, but also wouldn't be shocked if they did nontender him. There's a real chance they let him walk.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"Full year" was a pretty important part of my post. Sorry I'm not sold by his 43 games in 2020. Shoot, you were mad I cut off the first 19 games of Miranda's career and now you're selling barely twice that as some sort of significant game total. 

2020 was a 60 game season. Perhaps you were unaware but there was a global pandemic in 2020 that shortened the season. 43 games played is a full season, minus one stint on the 10 day IL. He also played in all 7 playoff games for the Yankees that season.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Urshela accumulated 2.4 fWAR last year his career fWAR since 2015 is 5.8. That’s 41% of “value” over 7 seasons.

he’s done it once before, but also had several seasons of 0 and negative.

I wouldn’t expect Gio to put up another 2 WAR season in ‘23

Gio was pretty terrible 2015-2018.  He accumulated -1,2 fWAR for Cleveland and Toronto.  He fulfilled his potential when he joined the Yankees, and from 2019 onward his fWAR has been 2.8, 1.1 (short season in 2020), 0.7 and 2.4.  I'm inclined to discard those early years for forecasting purposes, and extrapolate to a full season for 2020, and say that 3 of the past 4 seasons he's performed at a 2.0 WAR clip, and use that for my 2023 projection.   He's been injury prone for a couple years before we acquired him, so maybe add "when healthy" to that forecast.

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

2020 was a 60 game season. Perhaps you were unaware but there was a global pandemic in 2020 that shortened the season. 43 games played is a full season, minus one stint on the 10 day IL. He also played in all 7 playoff games for the Yankees that season.

I am aware. I am stating that no stats from 2020 mean anything to me when the season was moved back months and shortened to 60 games. Not just for Urshela, but for any player. That's not a sample size I'd use in any measure of player abilities. His career OPS+ and wRC+ are 104. So, yes, 121 and 119 are out of his career norm.