Swiper, No Swiping: Will Bigger Bases Alter Offseason Planning?

[Seth Stohs]

In recent years, Minor League Baseball has been the testing grounds for several potential rule changes designed to improve pace of play and encourage more action on the field. One of the rule changes that will go into effect for the 2023 season is larger bases, partially in an attempt to encourage more base-stealing. 

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

In 2022, the Minnesota Twins went 38-for-55 in stolen base attempts. Those numbers are, by far, the lowest in Major League Baseball. In the AL Central, the Tigers had 47 steals, the third-lowest in MLB, but they were caught 24 times. The White Sox ranked 24th with 58 steals, but they were only caught 10 times. 

On the other side of the spectrum, the Cleveland Guardians ranked third in baseball with 119 steals, and the Kansas City Royals tied for sixth with 104 steals. 

The question now becomes, how will the new rules – specifically the larger bases – alter how the Twins manage the running game, if at all? Will the team suddenly start attempting a lot of stolen bases? Could they steal more, but remain behind other organizations that already incorporated a running game into their strategy? 

There are several reasons that the Twins don’t run a lot. First and foremost, their 2022 roster did not include much speed or certainly many base stealers. While Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon have tremendous speed, they also don’t run a lot. The two were tied for the team lead with... six stolen bases. The idea is that they can score from first base on a double, so why risk getting thrown out on a stolen base attempt? Buxton has stolen bases at a high percentage over his career. However, with his leg issues in 2022, it made little sense for him to run. And now, with his recent arthroscopic knee surgery, it’s hard to imagine that he will do a ton of running moving forward. 

What happened in the Twins minor leagues, where the larger bases have already been utilized? Here is a quick look at where the Twins affiliate ranks relative to their minor-league level: 

    Low-A: Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels - 179 SB, 67 CS (Ranked 13th of 30 teams) 
    High-A: Cedar Rapids Kernels - 143 SB, 44 CS (Ranked 15th of 30 teams) 
    Double-A: Wichita Wind Surge - 170 SB, 50 CS (Ranked 7th of 30 teams) 
    Triple-A: St. Paul Saints - 136 SB, 29 CS. (Ranked 15th of 30 teams) 
    MLB: Minnesota Twins - 38 SB, 17 CS. (Ranked 30th of 30 teams) 

So as you can see, the Twins affiliates all attempted a lot of stolen bases throughout the year. So was that just a player or two on each affiliate that accounted for a big chunk of his team’s steals? Let’s take a look at the organizational leaders in stolen bases, noting which leagues they played in during the course of the year. 

•     Mikey Perez 48/55 (Ft. Myers, St. Paul, Cedar Rapids)
•     DaShawn Keirsey 42/49 (Wichita)
•     Michael Helman 40/45 (Wichita, St. Paul)
•     Austin Martin 35/41 (Wichita)
•     Will Holland 32/38 (Cedar Rapids, Wichita)
•     Yasser Mercedes 30/35 (DSL Twins)
•     Mark Contreras 23/25 (St. Paul)
•     Noah Miller 23/30 (Ft. Myers)
•     Anthony Prato 22/28 (Cedar Rapids, Wichita)
•     Luis Baez 20/23 (Ft. Myers)
•     Daniel Ozoria 20/25 (all over)
•     Edouard Julien 19/26 (Wichita)
•     Jake Rucker 19/31 (Ft. Myers, Cedar Rapids, St. Paul)
•     Alerick Soularie 18/23 (Cedar Rapids)
•     Willie Joe Garry 17/21 (Cedar Rapids) 

It is noteworthy that three individuals stole 40 or more bases. Three others had 30 or more, including Yasser Mercedes who stole 30 bags in just 41 games in the Dominican Summer League. A total of 11 players had 20 or more steals on the season. Whether it was simply situational or if it was an intentional effort to better understand the effect of larger bases, the Twins had a lot of players running often in the minors. 

It certainly appears that organizationally the Twins aren’t against stealing bases. It’s really just clear that the big-league club was made up of players that didn’t really work to be a running team. Over time, as the composition of the roster changes, they certainly could run more. 

As a rookie in 2003, Rocco Baldelli stole 27 bases and was caught ten times. The following year, he went 17-for-21 in stolen base attempts. 

Jon Berti of the Marlins led baseball with 41 stolen bases. Jorge Mateo led the American League with 35 steals, one more than his Orioles teammate Cedric Mullins. Trea Turner stole 27 bases for the Dodgers this year, the most by an impending free agent. 

On the other side, Twins catchers did not have a very good year in terms of throwing out would-be base stealers. The Twins allowed 92 stolen bases and threw out just 23 runners. Their 20% caught stealing was tied for 26th in the league. That certainly is not a good number, but it is important to note that the league average was just 25% 

Did teams run against the Twins more than average? Technically, yes. There were 115 stolen base attempts against the Twins in 2022. The average was 110, so negligible. 

As the Twins look for a catcher, the ability to throw out base stealers should be one consideration, but it shouldn’t be among the top considerations. It can be worked on, to some degree (footwork, transition, release time, pop times), but it is just as important, and I might argue more important, for the Twins to have their pitchers focus a little bit more on trying to give their catchers a chance (change pitch timing, slide steps, etc.). Of those 92 stolen bases, how many times were we able to say “The catcher didn’t have a chance.” 

 

So as the offseason approaches, how do you think that the larger bases will factor into decisions? Will the team add some speed to the roster in an attempt to steal more bases? As they look for a #2 catcher, how important will (or should) their ability to throw out would-be base stealers? Share your thoughts below, and make sure to check out our Offseason Handbook content to identify targets who could improve the team's overall speed and base-stealing proficiency.

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[mikelink45]

I hope the SB is back, but please not Buxton - he could be our best, but he could also be hurt - again.

[Karbo]

I can agree that a part of the problem is pitchers not being able to hold runners better, and now the rules are changing to make it even harder for some pitchers to hold runners. That is why teams are going to need to have catchers that can throw. IMO the "pitch framing" ability should be no more important than throwing.

[RJA]

Great article.  Three thoughts.  First, I think you make a great point about the need for a comprehensive strategy to stop the run game.  No matter how strong of an arm a catcher has, if pitchers don't hold the runners on, and are slow to the plate, good base runners are going to take a base.  I don't see the Twins working on that much, but most teams haven't as base stealing has been an afterthought for the past few years.  Second, the Twins do need to step up their run game.  Yes, fast runners can score from first on a double, but can they score from first on a single?  Plus, when a pitcher knows a team runs, and he has a good baserunner on first, it creates one more thing for him to think about, and tends to affect how many fastballs the player at the plate gets.  The running game or lack thereof affects the game in subtle ways.  Finally, like in all sports, strategies change over time in baseball.  It is likely that with a limit on shifts and bigger bases, the running game may become a much bigger part of the game.  With the Twins having players like Julien, Martin, Lee and others with great OBP's on the cusp of the majors, I think it likely we will see more running in the next year or so.  I, for one, look forward to that.  

[mac098]

I mean could you imagine how many SB Ricky Henderson would've had if he has larger bases? But I do agree that with the larger bases, the throw over limit, and the pitch clock starting, I think teams are going to start utilizing more defensive catchers first. Soon enough their bats aren't going to carry them to a MLB team, unless they plan on switching positions. And as I stated in a previous article, I would honestly prefer the catcher to be more of a defensive specialist behind the plate. 

[Doctor Gast]

We need to work on all aspects against base stealing 1st we need a catcher that can throw out a runner & pitchers. & teach players how to steal a base (a lost art), a base stealer really shakes up a pitcher. With a deader ball we need to take every advantage.

IMO a stolen base helps rally a team. So yes crank up the base stealing machine & learn to shut down the competitor. Baseball is back.

[chpettit19]

Will be interesting to see how this changes the game and team over the next few years. I wouldn't expect the Twins to go out and reshape a bunch of the roster this offseason for these changes, but over the next few years it wouldn't be surprising to see a balancing of the roster to include more guys who can take a base here and there.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I can agree that a part of the problem is pitchers not being able to hold runners better, and now the rules are changing to make it even harder for some pitchers to hold runners. That is why teams are going to need to have catchers that can throw. IMO the "pitch framing" ability should be no more important than throwing.

There are less than one steal attempts per game. Maye next year, that jumps up to 2 per game. How many pitches in a game get framed? 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I think that the biggest component to base running next year will be the limit on the number  of times that the pitcher can throw to first base.  Once they exhaust that limit, the base runner can take a much larger lead and only has to worry about the catcher picking them off after the pitch.

Those larger leads, along with the larger bases, will cause more stolen bases next year IMO.

[DocBauer]

It sure looks like the Twins have been looking for more speed and using it more in the minors. For the most part, their affiliates rank in the middle of their respective level. That indicates, IMO, a willingness to adopt a SB strategy without selling out toward that strategy. I think that's wise.

Limiting pitchers ability to throw to 1B might have a greater impact on SB league wide rather than the larger bases. I get that a SB attempt is often a bang-bang type of play. But we're only talking a total of 3" less between the bases. And then, the covering infielder is is 1 1/2" closer to tag the runner, we're  talking about a very small difference overall. I'm not convinced yet that the larger bases are going to have a profound affect. 

[mickster]

The pitcher can go over a 3rd time, but an unsuccessful attempt results in a basically a balk as the runner gets bumped

 

[Trov]

I expect stolen bases to go up some, but not just because bases are larger, but that should help a little, I mean how often does it come down to just an inch or two?  Where I think the rule changes will be the step offs and pitch count will increase base stealing more than anything.  Mainly from pure strategy stuff. 

I am personally looking forward to hopefully more running.  I still doubt the Twins will do a ton, unless they get some better base runners up.  They operate under the risk reward factor is too low to risk it.  I personally, miss the hit and run game, the stolen bases setting up and manufacturing runs.  I could go on about how I feel the analytics cloud people's minds to cause them to stop doing certain things in the game.  Not saying no analytics, but think people see the data and draw conclusions and forget it is still a situational game and we are not playing on paper or rolling dice. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

The pitcher can go over a 3rd time, but an unsuccessful attempt results in a basically a balk as the runner gets bumped

 

Hence the pitcher will never throw a third time because in essence they would not at least make the base runner earn it.

[jorgenswest]

In AAA teams ran more often with a greater success rate than in 2021. There will be more stolen bases and there is reason to be concerned about Jeffers. Catching the same pitching staff Sanchez was much more successful throwing out runners at 28% vs 18% for Jeffers. If Sanchez is at best average then Jeffers has significant work to do to get there.

[Cris E]

I don't think it's going to suddenly be 1985 any time soon. Most teams are still going to demand a 75% success rate even if running conditions are improved. And most players today are not taking a real lead and drawing throws over to first, much less getting to second with only 2.5 inches to spare.   You may see more action from the Base Stealers but I'm not sure it'll spread to many others.

 

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

There are less than one steal attempts per game. Maye next year, that jumps up to 2 per game. How many pitches in a game get framed? 

How many need to be framed?  If the pitcher is hitting the zone we do not need to fool the umpire.  And I hope the teams start running wild. 

[tony&rodney]

It is interesting to see both Harper and Schwarber running. The good teams are not afraid to run.

The Twins weren't just poor at stealing bases, they were not good at running the bases anywhere as a team. The Twins did not score on doubles from first base very often nor even on singles with two out. While I have no idea why the team was a collective turtle, those of us who watched enough games can attest to the lack of base-running acumen from our Twins squad.

Buxton should run. It is a part of his skill set. If everyone is too worried about injuries we are looking at a unique player being held hostage as a DH. If he can't run, he might get hurt in the outfield too.

I'm hopeful for a change in ideas for the Twins in 2023. That hope includes improved fundamentals on the bases and behind the plate as well as in the field.

[Blyleven2011]

I think the manager needs to start managing and implement the running game more ...

Other teams are going to attempt more chances  and with so many bang bang plays with bases 90 feet  , with just a few inches of difference in distance the bang bang play might just go away  and less review challenges  ...

 

I'm looking forward to a running game that should bring some excitement  , being last in rankings of 30 teams on stolen bases really just sucks  , I hate being last  so time for manager and coaches to get the boys in tip top condition and steal the show away from the other team ...

Our pitchers / catchers are going to have their work cut out for them on the new rules and closer bases , we need the defense at catcher to improve ...

We need defense improved throughout  ...

Go twins  ...

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it ...

[Linus]

Well I can assure you that Jeffers sitting on his butt will not discourage Twins opponents from running. 

[wsnydes]

This squad isn't built for the stolen base, so that they came in last in MLB is not surprising.  And I would expect that trend to continue unless they reshape active roster construction considerably.  Buxton and Gordon are only going to steal so many bases.  I don't see larger bases making a dramatic change to this team's game to game strategy.

All that said, I'd absolutely love to see it.  I miss that aspect of the game a lot!  And a baserunning threat complicates the shift.  Less so now with the restrictions, but it can still be a problem for defenses.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I don't think shortening the basepaths 4.5" (which is what the bigger bases will do) is going to have any affect on stealing bases.  What is going to affect base stealing is limiting the throws over to first.

The issues with this rule change won't pop up next year, but in 4-5 years I think we are going to see a slew of unintended consequences.  An increase in pitchouts, intentional walks with runners on first, managers looking for ways to circumvent the letter of the law,

These types of micro-managing rules always seem to backfire at some point.  I am not a huge fan of these changes.  All they really need to do is enforce the rules in place:

- Call the balks on all left-handers that step home and throw to first (the Buerhle rule)
- Call the balks on all the pitchers that do not come to a demonstrable set
- Call all of the blocking/hindering attempts by the 1B on pickoff attempts 

Stop giving the pitchers all of the advantages.  Call the rules in place.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm with tony&rodney on this one.  We are a team who's manager still manages like it's 2019.  Sorry Rocco, the Twins ain't hittin' 310 HR's in a season anytime soon.  Tony&rodney correctly pointed out that we are in fact, a poor "baserunning" team.  Our 3B coach sent MANY runners who were pegged out at the plate.  As a team the Twins have players who could run:  Buxton, Gordon, Kepler.  But even SLOW runners can steal a base if you're aggressive enough and they're coached properly.  

I "rec" a lot of stuff mikelink writes, but I disagree with the "don't let Buxton run, he might get hurt" line of thinking.  It's long past time to stop trying to "manage" Byron into better health.  Let's just take the shackles off and let him play...and what comes will come.  "FREE BYRON!!!"  :)  

[stringer bell]

Coaching is part of the base running problem, but personnel is even more of a problem. Whatever position players the Twins add should be good base runners and expert base stealers. 
 

In addition base running needs to be emphasized more than in the past. On the defensive side, both the pitchers and catchers will need to work to limit steals. I think the preponderance of right handed pitchers makes a difference in stolen bases allowed, so unless there is more turnover in the pitching staff, the Twins will be at a disadvantage allowing SBs.