Jhoan Duran - Starter or Reliever?

[Dave The Dastardly]

Split the difference: a two-inning "closer" role, which for the way Rocco handles starters would make Duran a half-starter.

[mac098]

18 hours ago, SwainZag said:

I would argue that Suarez is a different kind of pitcher than Duran is though. Suarez has an arsenal of 4 pitches and throws the sinker more than anything, while his fastball averages out at 93.3 MPH.  Duran throws 3 pitches with a fastball he throws 50% of hte time that averages at 100.9 MPH.  If we really think that Duran can keep that kind of velocity over 100+ pitches, sure you might have something, but his velocity, not only on the fastball, but on his other pitches is his strength.  No pitcher in baseball is throwing splitter as hard as Duran.  To just assume he can keep that velocity is a stretch, IMO.  I think you are just asking for not only an injury concern, but a big step back in production. 

Suarez's numbers took a decent step back moving full time to the rotation.  His K's were down, walks were up and homers given up more than doubles.  Suarez's season this year was very reminiscent of Joe Ryan's season this year. 

You have to look at it like this. If you have a pitcher throwing 100+mph fastball 50% of time, eventually the other team is going to catch up to the fastball after a few batters. Now if he comes into the game out of the bullpen, the players don't get the chance to speed their bats up because he will be in for 1 inning, then switch pitchers. Also, him knowing that he wasn't going to be a starter probably helped him this past season. He knew he could air it out, reach back and throw, or let if fly (whatever metaphor you want to use in this situation) because he knew he wasn't going to throw every 5 days at 70-100 pitches. When in reality he was more than likely used 3/4 times per week at 20ish pitches. Yes the number come out to be about the same, but he had more rest time in-between those pitches. So I think the bullpen is a great spot for him to stay. 

 

21 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Given this team's philosophy regarding pulling starters after two trips through the batting order the bullpen is as important as the starting rotation, maybe more so. We need shutdown relievers and Duran is elite. Keep him in the bullpen.

I agree with you. Could you imagine how the fans would react if he was shutting down the opposing team every 5th day and Rocco decides to pull him after 5/6 innings. There would be an uproar. 

[jorgenswest]

Reading the discussion I am not solidly in one camp. It did cause me to wonder about high leverage. I compared his high leverage opportunities with Joe Ryan who was pretty healthy last year.

Duran faced 124 batter is high leverage last year and held batters to a .489 OPS in those situations. Ryan faced 100 batters in high leverage situations. Duran and Ryan were first and second in WPA for Twins pitchers. Duran’s WPA was the best among all AL pitchers at 4.59. Joe Ryan was 1.26.

Duran was very valuable last year. Putting him in the rotation seems like a risk that might not be worthwhile. The major league leader in WPA last year was a starter in Alcantara at 5.08. There might be more value here.

Is there enough potential gain as a starter to take the risk of moving Duran to that role? I am leaning toward no but listening.

 

 

[chpettit19]

I voted for Fireman Reliever, but my real answer is in the middle. I'd use him for multiple innings and stretch his innings number out with the idea of possibly putting him into the 2024 rotation when Gray and/or Mahle are gone. I'd tell him to watch every Verlander start for the last 10 years and get really comfortable in his mind with the idea of starting the game throwing 93-94 and ending the 7th throwing 100. But now that we're getting some new medical people in the building I'd also have them do the deepest of dives into his previous medicals and see what they think about it all. Duran runs the risk of getting injured in the pen, too. Let's not pretend he's safe throwing 103 out of the pen and still isn't risking a blown out UCL every time he unleashes a ball towards the plate.

[USAFChief]

I can't even believe people want to change the role of the Twins only highly successful pitcher.

 

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Doesn't this depend a little on who else we have and who we can get? Duran has shown himself to be an elite reliever. We don't know if he can replicate that as a SP or if he can remain healthy in that role. Yet, I think many of us would agree that the biggest, hardest to fill hole on the Twins (as on most teams) is a true #1 starter.  Second toughest? A true shutdown closer. Duran has the talent to be either guy and we don't really have anyone else close unless SWR can be that #1 starter. It would probably take 2 seasons for Duran to make the transition to a full time starter and he's arguably already the shut down closer or close.  I do think it's pretty clear that a #1 starter has more value and is harder to buy than a shut down closer.  

If we can get a Robertson type closer, I say give Duran a shot at starting. If we can get a Rodon type starter, keep him in the pen. If we don't sign either, on balance I would leave him where he is although to me it's a very close call. The injury risk tips the scale for me.  My take: let's see what else we have after FA before deciding. 

[Squirrel]

I think injury concerns are real for Duran, especially given his history and the heat he throws. I don't think he will ever have a starting role, but I do think they could stretch him out to throw a few more innings.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't think it's that simple. 70 innings of relief in close-and-late situations is probably more valuable to the team than 140 innings as a starter.

CORRECT! I mentioned the other day the 60-75 high leverage innings brings a lot more value than wasting starter innings. (26 starts vs. 60 relief appearances………what contributes to more WINS?) He’s had an arm problem throwing starter innings & most valuable pitcher on staff as a late reliever!! If we are behind or even tied over the course of first 6 innings with Duran starting in a game OR having 6 good innings and a lead only to lose it because we can’t hold late inning leads is an absolute killer. i.e. Pagan - Lopez amongst others in ‘22.

We need to keep Duran in the back end as well as add another guy to compliment the back end (i.e. Robertson of Phillies - $8-$10 million) Unfortunately, can’t assume Lopez gets better, regardless of player control - cost. If he improves he’s a bonus for 7th inning with Jax!!

NEED a solid bull pen to be competitive.

There’s no ACE on the Phillies & they are even after 4 games in the Series. Need a $24 million inning eater that has a career winning record. “Front end starter.” This guy paired with current options gives us a solid staff.

[DJL44]

23 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't think it's that simple. 70 innings of relief in close-and-late situations is probably more valuable to the team than 140 innings as a starter.

It is rare to get a leverage index of 2 for any inning, let alone 70 of them. This is probably not possible. His leverage was 1.6 last season.

Would you rather hand the bullpen a lead 30 times a year or try to find 60 games where Duran holds the lead.

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins would need a couple of good relievers if Duran went back into the rotation. Who would they sign, trade for, or promote to fill the void?

Kenta Maeda is coming off surgery which will limit his innings. He's been successful as a reliever in the past and is actually cheaper if they use him in the bullpen.

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Let's not pretend he's safe throwing 103 out of the pen and still isn't risking a blown out UCL every time he unleashes a ball towards the plate.

Or throwing the hardest split finger fastball in the history of baseball. Look at how many arms Roger Craig shredded with the splitter.

I don't know if it's the max effort that causes injuries or the fatigue from pitching multiple innings, or both, or neither. If he's in the bullpen he's pitching max effort every pitch.

Jhoan Duran wants to start. If the Twins won't let him he's not likely to sign a contract extension. Then you're looking at trading him in a couple seasons.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

There’s no ACE on the Phillies & they are even after 4 games in the Series.

Nola and Wheeler have both pitched like All-Stars the past few seasons. Nola has two top 10 finishes in Cy Young voting. Wheeler got MVP votes last year. If they aren't "aces" then there aren't any in MLB.

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

There’s no ACE on the Phillies & they are even after 4 games in the Series. Need a $24 million inning eater that has a career winning record. “Front end starter.” This guy paired with current options gives us a solid staff.

Aaron Nola probably wants to talk to you. Depending on your definition of ace there's some question as to whether or not he is one, but he sure pitched like one this year. 3.25 ERA with 235 Ks in 205 innings is awfully ace like. 

Zack Wheeler isn't as amped to talk to you because he missed some time and only got in 153 innings over 26 starts, but he feels as if his 163 Ks to go along with a 2.82 ERA say he was pretty ace like this year as well.

[Rosterman]

I want to see at least one more season in The Closer role. He seems to have developed enough of a "I Can Get Them Out" attitude to be dominant, as long as his throwing hard will hold up.

As a starter, the question is can he throw that hard for 5-6-7 inings, and what is his mix to keep him in that role.

Yes, 15+ wins as a rotation arm can be as valuable as 30+ saves. Saves usually happen if you are already winning the game. 

 

 

[KBJ1]

This is a conundrum.  The Bullpen has been the Twins biggest problem for years. Duran was never effective as a starter. He throws two very good pitched and an occasional 3rd pitch. Most Ace starters throw 4.

Then again Christian Javier just started &  threw 6 plus innings of the Astros 2nd combined no hitter this year - with 70 fastballs & 27 sliders??

Javier fastball sits at 93, so who knows?

Duran's ability to shut down opponents in high leverage situations is an extremely valuable asset, one the Twins haven't had since Joe Nathan. I'd leave him there.

Alcala hasnt shown that kind of ability and would be a better option to explore as a starter going forward. 

A strong Bullpen wins games, a 5 inning starter does not.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

This is a conundrum.  The Bullpen has been the Twins biggest problem for years. Duran was never effective as a starter. He throws two very good pitched and an occasional 3rd pitch. Most Ace starters throw 4.

Then again Christian Javier just started &  threw 6 plus innings of the Astros 2nd combined no hitter this year - with 70 fastballs & 27 sliders??

Javier fastball sits at 93, so who knows?

Duran's ability to shut down opponents in high leverage situations is an extremely valuable asset, one the Twins haven't had since Joe Nathan. I'd leave him there.

Alcala hasnt shown that kind of ability and would be a better option to explore as a starter going forward. 

A strong Bullpen wins games, a 5 inning starter does not.

Just for the sake of information here are the usage percentage of pitches for Duran compared to the big name starters and ERA leaders in baseball from 2022:

Duran: FB 50%, curve 31%, splinker 16%, slider 3% 
Verlander: FB 51, slider 28, curve 19, change 2
Scherzer: FB 45, slider 23, change, 12, curve 9, cutter 9
Kershaw: Slider 42, FB, 40, curve 16
deGrom: FB 48, slider 39, change 8, curve 4
Cole: FB 51, slider 23, curve 12, change 8, cutter 6
Alcantara: FB 50, change 28, slider 22
Urias: Fb 49, curve 34, change 17
Cease: slider 43, FB 41, curve 14, change 2
Manoah: FB 61, slider 27, change 11
Ohtani: slider 39, FB 31, change 12, cutter 9, curve 8

 

[saviking]

Great topic! 

Duran has excelled as a closer and his 40 innings were critical innings. He was also able to go all year without serious injury. He's dominating because he doesn't have to save anything for later. 

I have no doubt Duran would be a great starter but we have a lot of depth now in our starting pitchers. I'm not saying it should be a consideration but before you can convince me I would have to first have to be comfortable we can replace him as a closer. Maybe that's where we should spend millions in the off season to free up Duran.

[nicksaviking]

How is he at shortstop?

Otherwise I'd stick with him in relief.

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/2/2022 at 2:02 PM, GNess said:

Starter! He has top of the rotation stuff and make up. SP is more important than BP generally speaking. 

“……generally speaking”. True. Supplanting one of the best in the game from the pen, not true.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Aaron Nola probably wants to talk to you. Depending on your definition of ace there's some question as to whether or not he is one, but he sure pitched like one this year. 3.25 ERA with 235 Ks in 205 innings is awfully ace like. 

Zack Wheeler isn't as amped to talk to you because he missed some time and only got in 153 innings over 26 starts, but he feels as if his 163 Ks to go along with a 2.82 ERA say he was pretty ace like this year as well.

There is a gray line and it can move year to year……….usually, an ACE is a guy most fans have heard of due to top end numbers for YEARS - otherwise, you’re a good front end starter. A team’s best pitcher isn’t an ACE…..I think most would agree. Verlander - Kershaw - Bieber - Strasburg - Scherzer - deGrom - Cole - Framber Valdez. ……....the top 10-12 guys in the game. ACE pitchers are stoppers with HOF stuff……maybe don’t all achieve that status of HOF due playing for poor teams or injury.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

There is a gray line and it can move year to year……….usually, an ACE is a guy most fans have heard of due to top end numbers for YEARS - otherwise, you’re a good front end starter. A team’s best pitcher isn’t an ACE…..I think most would agree. Verlander - Kershaw - Bieber - Strasburg - Scherzer - deGrom - Cole - Framber Valdez. ……....the top 10-12 guys in the game. ACE pitchers are stoppers with HOF stuff……maybe don’t all achieve that status of HOF due playing for poor teams or injury.

We have debates on what constitutes an ace on this site all the time. Not interested in rehashing that here. That's your definition of an ace and it's all good. But Aaron Nola's career includes seasons of 27 starts 3.54 ERA, 33 starts 2.37 (3rd in Cy Young), 12 starts 3.28 ERA (2020 so not so many starts), and 3.25 ERA over 32 starts this year. Has averaged over 10 Ks per 9 for 4 straight seasons. Whether you want to call him an ace or not doesn't really matter to me, but he's far more than "inning eater," and so is Wheeler. 

Wheeler's ERA's the last 3 seasons are all under 3 (2.92, 2.78, 2.82). He was 2nd in the Cy Young last year. He's only had 1 season with an ERA over 4 in 8 seasons. I think you're underselling these 2 dramatically.

I don't think the Twins need an ace and Verlander getting his butt kicked all postseason is a great example why. I'm just saying that suggesting the Phillies don't have 2 guys that would fit in the Framber Valdez tier of pitchers is inaccurate. Nola and Wheeler are absolute studs. I mean, outside of 2020, Framber Valdez has never even averaged 9 SO/9 for a season. If he's an ace Nola and Wheeler are unquestionably aces. I mean Framber Valdez has only been a fulltime major league starter for 3 years. And in those 3 years Wheeler has made more starts, with a lower ERA, lower FIP, lower WHIP, higher SO/9, and lower BB/9. Nola has made significantly more starts in those 3 years, does have a higher ERA, but beats Valdez in FIP, WHIP, and destroys him in both BB/9 and SO/9, more than doubling Valdez's SO/W ratio.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

CORRECT! I mentioned the other day the 60-75 high leverage innings brings a lot more value than wasting starter innings. (26 starts vs. 60 relief appearances………what contributes to more WINS?)

 

It sounds terrible when you phrase it "wasting starter innings" But, for my own clarity. What exactly are "wasting starter innings? 

Also... If 60 relief appearances contribute to more wins than 26 starts. Contracts would reflect that. 

To my knowledge the current top Closer deal in baseball belongs to Raisel Iglasias who signed for 4 years/58 million. Zach Wheeler the non-ace signed at 5 years/118 million. Only 9 relievers made more money than Dylan Bundy last year. 

If 60 relief appearances contribute to more wins than 26 starts. The Arbitrators, Agents and Front offices are collectively off in la-la land. ?

[h2oface]

I think you ask him and let him decide. It’s his young life. At this point, the Twins are paying him a comparative pittance for his value. He has far more earning potential as a starter than even a top closer. It should be his decision. He can always go somewhere else eventually if he wants and is not allowed to give starting a shot at the MLB level. He can always go back to relief, if he doesn’t like starting, or is not successful in that role, too.

Good thing Johan Santana didn’t get trapped in a pen. 

[dxpavelka]

Been saying all year:  The ace we seek could be right under our noses.  We did a similar thing with Trevor May eight years ago.  Gave him 25 big league starts and then decided he was a reliever.  If we leave Duran in the pen we'll always wonder "what if."

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

We have debates on what constitutes an ace on this site all the time. Not interested in rehashing that here. That's your definition of an ace and it's all good. But Aaron Nola's career includes seasons of 27 starts 3.54 ERA, 33 starts 2.37 (3rd in Cy Young), 12 starts 3.28 ERA (2020 so not so many starts), and 3.25 ERA over 32 starts this year. Has averaged over 10 Ks per 9 for 4 straight seasons. Whether you want to call him an ace or not doesn't really matter to me, but he's far more than "inning eater," and so is Wheeler. 

Wheeler's ERA's the last 3 seasons are all under 3 (2.92, 2.78, 2.82). He was 2nd in the Cy Young last year. He's only had 1 season with an ERA over 4 in 8 seasons. I think you're underselling these 2 dramatically.

I don't think the Twins need an ace and Verlander getting his butt kicked all postseason is a great example why. I'm just saying that suggesting the Phillies don't have 2 guys that would fit in the Framber Valdez tier of pitchers is inaccurate. Nola and Wheeler are absolute studs. I mean, outside of 2020, Framber Valdez has never even averaged 9 SO/9 for a season. If he's an ace Nola and Wheeler are unquestionably aces. I mean Framber Valdez has only been a fulltime major league starter for 3 years. And in those 3 years Wheeler has made more starts, with a lower ERA, lower FIP, lower WHIP, higher SO/9, and lower BB/9. Nola has made significantly more starts in those 3 years, does have a higher ERA, but beats Valdez in FIP, WHIP, and destroys him in both BB/9 and SO/9, more than doubling Valdez's SO/W ratio.

Debating who’s better is opinion based on some level for sure……Valdez is 4 years younger than Wheeler, so in my opinion he has a better upside. Valdez had like 20 quality starts or more this year. I’d love to have Nola or Wheeler in MN, I just don’t view them like I view Cole or some others mentioned. The root here was should Duran start or relieve and in my opinion he’s more valuable, with much less health risk out of the pen. Better value in each appearance out of pen/chance to seal a win and probably 15 more appearances out of pen vs. starter. Team better served from pen than trying to create an ACE due to exceptional stuff.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It sounds terrible when you phrase it "wasting starter innings" But, for my own clarity. What exactly are "wasting starter innings? 

Also... If 60 relief appearances contribute to more wins than 26 starts. Contracts would reflect that. 

To my knowledge the current top Closer deal in baseball belongs to Raisel Iglasias who signed for 4 years/58 million. Zach Wheeler the non-ace signed at 5 years/118 million. Only 9 relievers made more money than Dylan Bundy last year. 

If 60 relief appearances contribute to more wins than 26 starts. The Arbitrators, Agents and Front offices are collectively off in la-la land. ?

We’re talking about a guy who had mediocre success as a starter with arm problems. He was highly effective as a reliever in a set-up role generally. His WAR, I assume, was higher than any of our starters. He should be moved to closer this year & he’ll have even more value. He’s used to seal wins as a reliever and as a starter, he may pitch well and with potential spotty support as a starter he may go 11-13 like Nola did this year.

Biggest deal, in my opinion, is keeping a valuable asset healthy & productive……..,just like DHing Buxton to keep him in the line-up.

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/2/2022 at 2:29 PM, EGFTShaw said:

I think it has to be explored.

With his stuff I believe you are not doing your due diligence if you don't explore it.

Fall back is you have ONE hell of a reliever.

He’s 24 & this was his first year as a reliever. They have fallen back and it worked out as well as anyone could imagine in his rookie year in the SHOW!!

They moved him for health reasons - he stayed strong. Opportunity to be one of top 5 relievers in the game for next 10 plus years.

[EGFTShaw]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s 24 & this was his first year as a reliever. They have fallen back and it worked out as well as anyone could imagine in his rookie year in the SHOW!!

They moved him for health reasons - he stayed strong. Opportunity to be one of top 5 relievers in the game for next 10 plus years.

Don't disagree he could easily be one of the top 5 relievers for the next ten years.

But as a team, you need to do your due diligence.  We don't have a guy with this kind of stuff as a SP, it has to be at least looked at.

I'd be happy if they left him as a RP but I would also be happy and understand if they tried him as a starter.  It is not going to change overnight that is for sure.  16 innings in 2021 due to an elbow strain.  RP innings this year.  It would be quite a leap to SP in 2023.
 

[wsnydes]

He needs to be reliever.  That's the greater immediate need for the team and he's an incredible asset there.  I'm not convinced that he'd be nearly as effective as a starter.

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

Don't disagree he could easily be one of the top 5 relievers for the next ten years.

But as a team, you need to do your due diligence.  We don't have a guy with this kind of stuff as a SP, it has to be at least looked at.

I'd be happy if they left him as a RP but I would also be happy and understand if they tried him as a starter.  It is not going to change overnight that is for sure.  16 innings in 2021 due to an elbow strain.  RP innings this year.  It would be quite a leap to SP in 2023.
 

With the deemphasis on starting pitching and the extra burden that puts on the bullpen, how much does that add to the equation?