Jhoan Duran - Starter or Reliever?

[EGFTShaw]

20 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

With the deemphasis on starting pitching and the extra burden that puts on the bullpen, how much does that add to the equation?  

Good question.

I think, this is just IMHO, that we have swung a little too far in yanking the SPs simply after 2 times through the order.  It is a good point to take into account, but it shouldn't be automatic.

Twins/Rocco had some very "interesting" pitching issues to deal with this year, so I am not solely putting any blame here on them.

But Duran so far has proved himself to be unique. 

So, let's take a look at what he can do and how do we maximize his potential regardless of SP or RP position.

But your point about how pitching has changed definitely needs to be in the equation.

[wsnydes]

24 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

Good question.

I think, this is just IMHO, that we have swung a little too far in yanking the SPs simply after 2 times through the order.  It is a good point to take into account, but it shouldn't be automatic.

Twins/Rocco had some very "interesting" pitching issues to deal with this year, so I am not solely putting any blame here on them.

But Duran so far has proved himself to be unique. 

So, let's take a look at what he can do and how do we maximize his potential regardless of SP or RP position.

But your point about how pitching has changed definitely needs to be in the equation.

I look at it this way, it's easier to find a guy that can get through the order twice than it is to find a lights out reliever.  And with the shorter starts, the more relievers you need.  You only need one starter a day.

I do see the appeal to try him as a starter, but given his injury history and his elite effectiveness as a reliever, I'm not in the camp that would mess with success.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

We’re talking about a guy who had mediocre success as a starter with arm problems. He was highly effective as a reliever in a set-up role generally. His WAR, I assume, was higher than any of our starters. He should be moved to closer this year & he’ll have even more value. He’s used to seal wins as a reliever and as a starter, he may pitch well and with potential spotty support as a starter he may go 11-13 like Nola did this year.

Biggest deal, in my opinion, is keeping a valuable asset healthy & productive……..,just like DHing Buxton to keep him in the line-up.

Biggest deal, in my opinion, is keeping a valuable asset healthy & productive……..,just like DHing Buxton to keep him in the line-up.

I understand this thinking. However... it doesn't seem to be working. We all want healthy and productive and I'd be willing to bet that the Twins front office wants healthy and productive. None of us can stand here and say that the methods used to keep players healthy is working. I doubt the front office can say that the methods are working. It didn't work for Buxton. 

His WAR, I assume, was higher than any of our starters. He should be moved to closer this year & he’ll have even more value.

Closer will increase his value in the eyes of the arbitrators, yet still not to the level of a starter. Full Disclosure: I don't care if he is a starter or not... I don't care if he is closer or not,..  Games are won and lost at any point, high leverage occurs in any inning. I just want more innings out of him period and less innings out of an innings eater starter like Dylan Bundy. To me it's all about innings... there are a little over 1400 innings to cover during the course of a season. How many innings zeros can be hung by the best pitchers that you have. I'm willing to bet that the number is over 60 or 70.  

 

[TopGunn#22]

I've raised the possibility that the Twins could look at Duran as a starter in other threads.  The "prevailing" logic is that he would pitch more innings as a starter and more "quality" innings are better than fewer.  I still think the F.O. will consider this as an option.

However, when it comes down to what I would do I'm pretty firm where I stand on this issue.  Many of my thoughts have already been mentioned:

His history is that as a starter he tends to wear down and get hurt.

He's REALLY good as a closer or a late inning/high leverage guy.  I want a guy like him that can shut down a potential game losing situation.

Our starting rotation was always thin, with guys like Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy and Archer being counted on for major innings and effectiveness.  Our starting rotation hasn't boasted this much depth in awhile.  And if a trade (Woodruff, Pablo Lopez) or F.A. signing (Rodon, Senga) happens it further cements that the Twins will leave Duran in the BP.  

The next guy that falls into this kind of discussion is Matt Canterino.  Tremendous Stuff !  Tremendous upside.  Can he stay healthy as a SP or just to get some usage out of him, does he need to transition to a BP role.  Nobody is any good to you if they are not available.  For the Twins, they need to determine at what role is Matt Canterino "available."  I think they already know about Duran.  

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I look at it this way, it's easier to find a guy that can get through the order twice than it is to find a lights out reliever.  And with the shorter starts, the more relievers you need.  You only need one starter a day.

This is just objectively wrong. It's a lot harder to find someone who can give you five good innings than someone who can pitch effectively for one inning. Just look at Griffin Jax for example. He was terrible in the rotation but he was able to increase velocity and lean more on his slider in the bullpen. The vast majority of starting pitchers in baseball would be "lights out" relievers. That's where they find the relievers - guys who couldn't hack it in the starting rotation like Jax, Lopez, and Tyler Duffey (just to name players who were on the Twins in 2022).

Duran is different because he never really got a chance to fail in the rotation. His injuries and lack of innings in recent seasons meant he was going to be limited in innings in 2022. His performance pretty much demanded he play in the big leagues. They compromised by putting him the bullpen. I don't see a reason to limit his innings in 2023, in fact I think he might be better served by not pitching with maximum effort every pitch.

[wsnydes]

49 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is just objectively wrong. It's a lot harder to find someone who can give you five good innings than someone who can pitch effectively for one inning. Just look at Griffin Jax for example. He was terrible in the rotation but he was able to increase velocity and lean more on his slider in the bullpen. The vast majority of starting pitchers in baseball would be "lights out" relievers. That's where they find the relievers - guys who couldn't hack it in the starting rotation like Jax, Lopez, and Tyler Duffey (just to name players who were on the Twins in 2022).

Duran is different because he never really got a chance to fail in the rotation. His injuries and lack of innings in recent seasons meant he was going to be limited in innings in 2022. His performance pretty much demanded he play in the big leagues. They compromised by putting him the bullpen. I don't see a reason to limit his innings in 2023, in fact I think he might be better served by not pitching with maximum effort every pitch.

I said lights out reliever for a reason.  Jax isn't a lights out reliever.  He's not even a dominant reliever.  Can he pitch one inning effectively?  Sure.  And I can trust him to do that more times than not.  Many guys can, as you noted.  But I'm not trusting those guys in the stickiest of situations like I would an elite reliever.  I would Duran.  Jax is not anywhere near Duran's level.  Duffey was never at Duran's level.  I might give you Lopez, though he wasn't at the end of this season.  I can find more Jax's more easily than I can find a Duran.  And you just illustrated that.

I'm not worried about giving a player a chance to fail when he's already succeeding well in his current role.  I'm not going to mess with what is working.  Especially with someone as effective as he is.  And since this team has a need in both the rotation and the bullpen, weakening one to strengthen the other doesn't make much sense to me.  Plus, I don't believe the potential gains in the rotation are offset at all by the hole it creates in the bullpen.

 

[baul0010]

On 11/2/2022 at 11:23 AM, Vanimal46 said:

Counterpoint: 140 Duran innings is better for the team than 70 Duran innings.  

That's if you can get 140 innings out of him as a starter.  Just because Ranger Suarez was a great reliever turned starter doesn't mean that will be the fate of Duran.  Relievers like Duran don't grow on trees.  As we have seen with Twins starters, it appears injured starting pitchers do grow on trees.  

CounterCounterpoint:  Isn't 70 Duran innings better than 41 Duran starter innings?  

[jorgenswest]

Just a wonder…

Are starters more likely to be injured than a reliever? Given that they throw more pitches I think that would increase the opportunity for injury. This study suggests it is 2.4 times more likely. The risk of shoulder injury in a starter is greater. I have read there is a correlation between velocity and injury.

I don’t think it is possible for the Twins to protect Duran from injury be keeping him in the relief role. He faces future arm injury either way. Until then how does he help the Twins more? Can he be an elite starter? That would be hard to pass up. The cost of an elite starter is enormous. The only realistic way we see an elite starter with the Twins is to develop one. 

[h2oface]

56 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

That's if you can get 140 innings out of him as a starter.  Just because Ranger Suarez was a great reliever turned starter doesn't mean that will be the fate of Duran.  Relievers like Duran don't grow on trees.  As we have seen with Twins starters, it appears injured starting pitchers do grow on trees.  

CounterCounterpoint:  Isn't 70 Duran innings better than 41 Duran starter innings?  

The Braves “turned” Spencer Strider this year, too. ?‍♂️

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

The Braves “turned” Spencer Strider this year, too. ?‍♂️

I'll believe it when I see it.  The Twins aren't the Braves or Astros.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The only realistic way we see an elite starter with the Twins is to develop one. 

And the only candidates they have to develop one are Jhoan Duran and Connor Prielipp. Prielipp is at least 3 years away.

[SwainZag]

On 11/4/2022 at 11:17 AM, h2oface said:

The Braves “turned” Spencer Strider this year, too. ?‍♂️

Not really.  Strider was a very effective starter his entire minor league career.  Yes, he got 13 total appearances in the pen between 2021-2022, but they didn't turn him from a great reliever to a starter.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Strider was a very effective starter his entire minor league career.

His entire 1 year minor league career.

Spencer Strider minor league ERA - 3.64 in 94 innings. Described as a very effective starter 

Jhoan Duran ERA 2018-2019 - 3.75 in 100 and 115 innings. Described in this thread as a mediocre starter (not by you). I don’t even think Duran’s minor league stats are relevant anymore because he’s clearly a better pitcher now. I’m simply pointing out the irony. 

Duran could have the same path as Strider, Suarez, and countless St Louis Cardinals pitchers who started their career in the pen and transitioned to a starter. 

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

His entire 1 year minor league career.

Spencer Strider minor league ERA - 3.64 in 94 innings. Described as a very effective starter 

Jhoan Duran ERA 2018-2019 - 3.75 in 100 and 115 innings. Described in this thread as a mediocre starter (not by you). I don’t even think Duran’s minor league stats are relevant anymore because he’s clearly a better pitcher now. I’m simply pointing out the irony. 

Duran could have the same path as Strider, Suarez, and countless St Louis Cardinals pitchers who started their career in the pen and transitioned to a starter. 

Great post. Thanks for the focused summary. Sure looks like Duran was the more prolific starter of the two to me. By over 100%! It really is insignificant, though. Their careers will not be about the year or two spent in the minors.

All in all, it is really about what Duran wants. It is his life and career. He should have a shot, if he wants, for the big big money, and that comes from being a premier starter. He would help this team, and any team he bails for if he feels he is not being treated fairly, as a premier pitcher from the pen or as a starter. And the pen will always be there. Any pitcher can have an injury at anytime. That should not be part of the decision.

Last season, coming off injury, the goal was to limit innings and the best way to utilize him and let him progress was in the pen. Should he be "punished" and limited in his personal career goals because he excelled in the pen? As he could also excel in his progression as a starter? The plan was successful. He excelled, and built arm strength, and now ready for more innings. Perfect. Perfect time to continue a progression to his potential...... if that is what he wants.

[Jham]

The cynic in me thinks the Twins want to keep him from starting and accumulating saves to protect negotiation and arbitration decisions. Duran already stated he wants to start.

This is a no-brainer. Stop being clever. More innings of Duran, 2 to 3x as many...  That's a risk worth taking. We are never going to sign a starter with his stuff. Ever. 

I'm sure Verlander would have been a sick fireman last season. Stupid Astros didn't protect his 38yo arm and cost him a reliever of the year award.

He's our best pitcher period. He needs to start.