Jhoan Duran - Starter or Reliever?

[Vanimal46]

In our pursuit for the mythical ace, Jhoan Duran should continue to pop up in discussions. There is no doubt he has the stuff and mental makeup to fill any role on the pitching staff. 

2022 postseason hero Ranger Suarez is an inspiring example of what we could do with Duran. In 2020/2021 Suarez was a shut down reliever, and transitioned back to the rotation. He’s been a successful player in their rotation for 1.5 seasons now. 

What do you think? Do you mess with greatness and move Duran to the rotation?

[cHawk]

He was one of the best closers in baseball in his ROOKIE SEASON

Keep him there

[Nine of twelve]

Given this team's philosophy regarding pulling starters after two trips through the batting order the bullpen is as important as the starting rotation, maybe more so. We need shutdown relievers and Duran is elite. Keep him in the bullpen.

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, cHawk said:

He was one of the best closers in baseball in his ROOKIE SEASON

Keep him there

Counterpoint: 140 Duran innings is better for the team than 70 Duran innings.  

[Nine of twelve]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Counterpoint: 140 Duran innings is better for the team than 70 Duran innings.  

I don't think it's that simple. 70 innings of relief in close-and-late situations is probably more valuable to the team than 140 innings as a starter.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Given this team's philosophy regarding pulling starters after two trips through the batting order the bullpen is as important as the starting rotation, maybe more so. We need shutdown relievers and Duran is elite. Keep him in the bullpen.

That wasn't their philosophy when they had good, healthy, pitchers. I'm not sure it will be next year, we just don't know 

I'd roll the dice and try him at starter, completely changing my mind from last year.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't think it's that simple. 70 innings of relief in close-and-late situations is probably more valuable to the team than 140 innings as a starter.

Leverage is a powerful thing, I agree. 

[Doctor Gast]

I touched on this in my blog "Profiling pitching".  I'm sure Duran would want to be a SP but would the FO let him? I don't think so. If we had a couple of pitchers to take his place maybe. I thought the same about Alcala when he developed his 3rd pitch. Now I have my doubts.

But let's say we do have a couple pitchers who could take his place. Duran with his stuff & demeanor he could be a fantastic SP. But with his injury history his transition period would have to be long. You have see where he's at as far his pitch count limit is at, it could be 3, 4 or 5 innings at the most and slowly go from there. If you go too fast you'll lose him to the IL. Do you have the patience for that? If you think it'll be something automatic IMO you'll be wrong.We don't have anyone to take his place so I'm afraid he's stuck in the BP.  Right now the FO looks like they're geniuses so they aren't going to take a chance on looking stupid.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Counterpoint: 140 Duran innings is better for the team than 70 Duran innings.  

While that's true, I don't think anyone thinks they are getting the same Duran for 140 innings as we did for those 70 innings.  I leave him in the pen, maybe try to up his usage to 85-90 innings.  He is such a weapon there with his velocity and allowing the team to pick to face the top/middle of orders late in games that I think it would be silly to move him.  

 

[GNess]

Starter! He has top of the rotation stuff and make up. SP is more important than BP generally speaking. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Option E:

outgetter

 

agreed, 140 innings of Duran is better than 70 innings of Duran plus 70 innings of someone else. Realistically it’s more likely 100 innings to 110 at most (plus 30-40 innings of someone else) is better.

start, piggy-back, relief, whatever. Just Get outs

[EGFTShaw]

I think it has to be explored.

With his stuff I believe you are not doing your due diligence if you don't explore it.

Fall back is you have ONE hell of a reliever.

[Vanimal46]

54 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

While that's true, I don't think anyone thinks they are getting the same Duran for 140 innings as we did for those 70 innings.  I leave him in the pen, maybe try to up his usage to 85-90 innings.  He is such a weapon there with his velocity and allowing the team to pick to face the top/middle of orders late in games that I think it would be silly to move him.  

 

Using Ranger Suarez as the example, his velocity and stuff remained the same moving from the bullpen back to the rotation. If Duran’s stuff remained the same increasing from 70 to 140 innings, why wouldn’t we want him starting every 5th game? IMO he put the injury concerns to bed this season by pitching all year with no decrease in velocity or bite on his breaking stuff. 

[SwainZag]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Using Ranger Suarez as the example, his velocity and stuff remained the same moving from the bullpen back to the rotation. If Duran’s stuff remained the same increasing from 70 to 140 innings, why wouldn’t we want him starting every 5th game? IMO he put the injury concerns to bed this season by pitching all year with no decrease in velocity or bite on his breaking stuff. 

I would argue that Suarez is a different kind of pitcher than Duran is though. Suarez has an arsenal of 4 pitches and throws the sinker more than anything, while his fastball averages out at 93.3 MPH.  Duran throws 3 pitches with a fastball he throws 50% of hte time that averages at 100.9 MPH.  If we really think that Duran can keep that kind of velocity over 100+ pitches, sure you might have something, but his velocity, not only on the fastball, but on his other pitches is his strength.  No pitcher in baseball is throwing splitter as hard as Duran.  To just assume he can keep that velocity is a stretch, IMO.  I think you are just asking for not only an injury concern, but a big step back in production. 

Suarez's numbers took a decent step back moving full time to the rotation.  His K's were down, walks were up and homers given up more than doubles.  Suarez's season this year was very reminiscent of Joe Ryan's season this year. 

[Cris E]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Counterpoint: 140 Duran innings is better for the team than 70 Duran innings.  

Counter-counterpoint: 210 innings would be even better. Maybe 280 innings like it's 1974.

Realistic point: 70 Duran relief innings or 70 starting Duran innings and then the 60 Day until winter.

He was a starter, his fastball wasn't this big, his supporting stuff wasn't good enough and he got hurt.  He blossomed outside the rotation, don't screw around with it.

 

[Vanimal46]

27 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I would argue that Suarez is a different kind of pitcher than Duran is though. Suarez has an arsenal of 4 pitches and throws the sinker more than anything, while his fastball averages out at 93.3 MPH.  Duran throws 3 pitches with a fastball he throws 50% of hte time that averages at 100.9 MPH.  If we really think that Duran can keep that kind of velocity over 100+ pitches, sure you might have something, but his velocity, not only on the fastball, but on his other pitches is his strength.  No pitcher in baseball is throwing splitter as hard as Duran.  To just assume he can keep that velocity is a stretch, IMO.  I think you are just asking for not only an injury concern, but a big step back in production. 

Suarez's numbers took a decent step back moving full time to the rotation.  His K's were down, walks were up and homers given up more than doubles.  Suarez's season this year was very reminiscent of Joe Ryan's season this year. 

Duran didn’t have an issue maintaining 98-100 MPH as a starter in the minors. He’ll be plenty effective even if he loses a tick on the FB and splinker. 

[Vanimal46]

26 minutes ago, Cris E said:

He was a starter, his fastball wasn't this big, his supporting stuff wasn't good enough and he got hurt.  He blossomed outside the rotation, don't screw around with it.

His FB was this big as a starter. Here’s a video @Tom Froemmingmade from Duran’s 2019 season. He’s clearly bulked up over the last 3 seasons and his throwing motion is effortless. Now that he’s gained confidence with his secondary offerings, he can be even more valuable in a starting role. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I would argue that Suarez is a different kind of pitcher than Duran is though. Suarez has an arsenal of 4 pitches and throws the sinker more than anything, while his fastball averages out at 93.3 MPH.  Duran throws 3 pitches with a fastball he throws 50% of hte time that averages at 100.9 MPH.  If we really think that Duran can keep that kind of velocity over 100+ pitches, sure you might have something, but his velocity, not only on the fastball, but on his other pitches is his strength.  No pitcher in baseball is throwing splitter as hard as Duran.  To just assume he can keep that velocity is a stretch, IMO.  I think you are just asking for not only an injury concern, but a big step back in production. 

Suarez's numbers took a decent step back moving full time to the rotation.  His K's were down, walks were up and homers given up more than doubles.  Suarez's season this year was very reminiscent of Joe Ryan's season this year. 

100+ pitches? No one does that anymore......

[SwainZag]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Duran didn’t have an issue maintaining 98-100 MPH as a starter in the minors. He’ll be plenty effective even if he loses a tick on the FB and splinker. 

He was never this effective as a starter in the minors and his two previous career high in innings are 100 in 2018 and 115 in 2019.  The 67 innings he threw this year is the 3rd highest in his career.  Maybe I'm being pessimistic and speculative, but it seems like it's playing with fire putting him back into the rotation....especially with elbow issues in the past.  What's a realistic goal for 2023 if that happens.  120 innings?  He was one the best weapons in the game this past season, why mess with it?  

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Anybody clamoring for Duran to be a starter REALLY needs to go back and look at his minor league stats.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=duran-000jho

[Vanimal46]

34 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Anybody clamoring for Duran to be a starter REALLY needs to go back and look at his minor league stats.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=duran-000jho

His last meaningful minor league stats are from 2019. What relevance does that have for the 2023 season? He’s clearly bulked up since that time and improved his command/secondary pitches. 

[GKuehl]

I'm strongly in the "Leave Duran in the Pen Camp." He just showed that he can be an ELITE reliever over the course of an entire season. Why mess with greatness? How many games would we have lost had he not been in the bullpen? 8-10, maybe more? We simply don't have enough other high-quality relievers to replace his 70 late-game innings when he is pitching at the most crucial points of close games against the heart of our opponents' lineups.

At this moment, we also seem to have some solid depth in our rotation (Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Paddack, and potentially FAs) that is severely lacking in the bullpen. 

[CRF]

It's just my opinion, and I know I'm in the minority here, but I still believe in the role of a "closer". I think there are still teams and managers that do too. For me, he's far more valuable in the closer/late inning role, than as a starter. I'd like him to stay in the pen. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, GKuehl said:

I'm strongly in the "Leave Duran in the Pen Camp." He just showed that he can be an ELITE reliever over the course of an entire season. Why mess with greatness? How many games would we have lost had he not been in the bullpen? 8-10, maybe more? We simply don't have enough other high-quality relievers to replace his 70 late-game innings when he is pitching at the most crucial points of close games against the heart of our opponents' lineups.

At this moment, we also seem to have some solid depth in our rotation (Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Paddack, and potentially FAs) that is severely lacking in the bullpen. 

Find 2 more minor league starters and see if Duran's success and Jax's success as s relievers can be duplicated.

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Find 2 more minor league starters and see if Duran's success and Jax's success as s relievers can be duplicated.

Found them. Cole Sands and Matt Canterino. 

[Seth Stohs]

100% reliever... 

If he didn't have such an injury history (specifically elbow) over the past few years, I'd be fine with starting. That said, as a starter, he wouldn't be airing it out as much and hitting 101-103. He's found a role and he could dominate for years. Or, it's not natural to throw that hard and who knows how long it will last. I'd like to enjoy it. 

[tony&rodney]

The injury thing was real for Duran. Of course, we would all love Duran being as effective for 7 innings every five days as he was last season pitching an inning every two to three days. It would be quite a gamble considering Duran's struggles to stay active before last season. The Twins would need a couple of good relievers if Duran went back into the rotation. Who would they sign, trade for, or promote to fill the void? It would be interesting though. I do think that the Twins need starters to throw 100-110 pitches when they are throwing well.

[wabene]

16 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Given this team's philosophy regarding pulling starters after two trips through the batting order the bullpen is as important as the starting rotation, maybe more so. We need shutdown relievers and Duran is elite. Keep him in the bullpen.

 

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That wasn't their philosophy when they had good, healthy, pitchers. I'm not sure it will be next year, we just don't know 

Yes let's see what they do next year before setting this in stone as their pitching philosophy.

For those thinking of Duran as a closer last year that just wasn't the case. He was a fireman type facing the other team's best every time out and thus giving us the most value possible from the pen. The inning he pitched was secondary. 

At the beginning of last year Duran was quoted saying he liked his new role saying he felt great and didn't miss being sore all the time like he was as a starter. Since then he has changed his tune a little probably because he knows how much more money is available to starters. I'm glad I don't have to make this decision because the worst case scenario of moving him to starter is he blows out his elbow. Certain roles do suit certain people better. However he could be that elusive Ace® we've been searching for. I'll decline from saying what I'd do since I don't have all the info that the team does. 

[rwilfong86]

I say he stays in the pen, having a reliever with his stuff who can pitch multiple innings is the biggest asset the Twins have.

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, Cris E said:

Counter-counterpoint: 210 innings would be even better. Maybe 280 innings like it's 1974.

Realistic point: 70 Duran relief innings or 70 starting Duran innings and then the 60 Day until winter.

He was a starter, his fastball wasn't this big, his supporting stuff wasn't good enough and he got hurt.  He blossomed outside the rotation, don't screw around with it.

 

Counter - Counter - Counterpoint: 

There is a lot of space in between the North and South poles. ?

These discussions shouldn't be either or but they are. 

Option A - He throws 5 and then rests 5

Option B - He Throws 1 and then rests 1

Option C - There is no option C... There is nothing in between... Nothing else is possible. Go Back and look at Option A and Option B and decide between the two... There is no option C. I can't believe you even looked for an option C after reading option A and B. 

Option D - Get Duran more innings. Maybe 20 more... Let's see how he does.  ?