Rumor: Jim Pohlad "Totally on Board" with re-signing Correa

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

No, that actually does not sound familiar. The Twins have been giving out big contracts the last several years and any contract Correa would get wouldn't put the Twins over any self-imposed salary cap. I highly doubt ownership cares HOW the front office spends that salary space. A deal for Correa wouldn't put the team over budget so what would it matter to ownership? In fact, one Carlos Correa surely brings in more revenue than four bargain basement free agents.

If a deal for Correa, one of the other shortstops, Rodon or any other big budget free agent doesn't come to pass, it'll be because either the player wants to be elsewhere, or because the front office shied away from committing X% of the payroll to a single individual player or committing X amount of years to a player. No deal most likely means that someone in the front office is too scared to tie their future employment to one deal that can be easily pointed at as being a mistake.

 

The quoted post sounds more like the Terry Ryan era than the Falvine era, but Correa’s contract could be still in the Falvine threshold but beyond DSP’s and/or JP’s. We don’t exactly know what the parameters are for individual contracts of any of the head honchos at 1 Twins Way.

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I could reasonably see it being beyond $300M. There's an element of one upmanship and pride in these negotiations. The .1 in $35.1M wasn't coincidence -- it allowed him to top Rendon in AAV among infielders. With that in mind, I think it will take either some years at >$35M or at $300M in total, since that's a nice round number. Perhaps both.

So here's the idea that I've floated elsewhere...

8 years at $270M. The first four years at $36M, followed by two at $33M and two at $30M, with opt outs after four and six years.

Correa gets...

• A raise for the first four years and in the neighborhood of some of the biggies that have happened. 
• The ability to opt out if he thinks he can beat 4 years for $126M at age 31 or 2 years for $60M at age 33.
• A slightly front-loaded contract, which is beneficial for investment purposes. 

The Twins get...

• A bit of salary relief after four and six years if he opts in.
• A lot of salary relief after four or six years if he opts out.
• The ability for Lewis to play 3B for several years, flip-flopping with Correa at the appropriate time (think ARod moving to 3B). 

Is that close? I'm not sure it's enough, but I'm also not sure I'd go much further. 

 

This is a good offer.  If the Twins offer this and do not sign him, I would be fine with that.  

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Pohlad's businesses are not emotional ventures. The goal is to maximize the asset, which many would argue (why not?) is the point of business. Carl and sons are not baseball people or fans. That's ok for many businesses but baseball does require some level of risk via spending that may be more difficult than many normal businesses. The alternative is to be superior at scouting, drafting, and developing. A combination of financial risk and an eye for player talent works best. The Twins are currently in a rough spot. Jim Pohlad repeats the same lines spoken decades in the past by his father because he has hired people to run his (the family) baseball business and does not have a vision for the Minnesota Twins beyond the expected financial return, and that is his right. Twins fans haven't seen their team among the highest in MLB payrolls since the heydays of Calvin Griffith's 1960 teams. San Diego has a smaller market but has spent big. Whatever the answer is, spend $140-180 million for 2023 or cut back to $90-110 million, I just hope the Twins are interesting in 2023 because their 2022 product was horrid and I followed them to the end just like a fanatic. 

The size of the Twins market vs others is a little skewed by the fact that Minneapolis is the smallest market with every single sports franchise.  Hockey, NBA, WNBA, Soccer, NFL and MLB.  and independent baseball league if its still up and running.  so the Twins are also competing with these franchises and college teams for sponsorship and corporate money.  This hinders our revenues some too.

[bunsen82]

I will say 30% chance.  
 

The Yankees will spend their money on resigning Judge, Where I think this falls is on the Dodgers and Trea Turner. I think the Dodgers are willing to resign Turner and can outspend any other team.  So does Trea Turner want to go back to a team on the East coast or resign, I say he will resign.  
 

So then it really opens up.  Cubs and Atlanta could outspend. I think the Twins feel comfortable with Correa. They may be willing to do a bigger contract now that he has been in the system for a year.  7 years 245 million-250 million is the end game.  
 

If the Twins are serious which I think they are, and the two major bidders are out of the equation, the Twins have a punchers shot.  

[TopGunn#22]

I like the salary structure Indiana has laid out.  The Twins have some young potential SS talent coming up their pipeline.  They don't know if any of them could cut it at the Major League level.  BUT...they could, and not just cut it, but a Lewis or Lee could turn out to be outstanding SS's.

Front load the deal.  Give Correa opt outs at 4 years and 6 years.  You insure you would have Correa for 3 productive years. You give yourself time to see how Lewis, Lee and Miller develop.  You're not wasting time on has-beens like Iglesias or Andrus.  You're building for the "now" with an eye on the future.  

[jmlease1]

18 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I could reasonably see it being beyond $300M. There's an element of one upmanship and pride in these negotiations. The .1 in $35.1M wasn't coincidence -- it allowed him to top Rendon in AAV among infielders. With that in mind, I think it will take either some years at >$35M or at $300M in total, since that's a nice round number. Perhaps both.

So here's the idea that I've floated elsewhere...

8 years at $270M. The first four years at $36M, followed by two at $33M and two at $30M, with opt outs after four and six years.

Correa gets...

• A raise for the first four years and in the neighborhood of some of the biggies that have happened. 
• The ability to opt out if he thinks he can beat 4 years for $126M at age 31 or 2 years for $60M at age 33.
• A slightly front-loaded contract, which is beneficial for investment purposes. 

The Twins get...

• A bit of salary relief after four and six years if he opts in.
• A lot of salary relief after four or six years if he opts out.
• The ability for Lewis to play 3B for several years, flip-flopping with Correa at the appropriate time (think ARod moving to 3B). 

Is that close? I'm not sure it's enough, but I'm also not sure I'd go much further. 

 

I'd love for this to be the deal, but I don't think this comes very close to getting it done. 8 years might be sufficient, but the AAV falls short of what I expect Correa to be asking for and frankly what I think the league will see as his value. As you've noted, the $35.1M wasn't a coincidence and pride matters to both players and agents, so an expectation that Correa will now take less salary in AAV than he made this season in his next contract feels very unrealistic to me.

I would expect any deal for Correa to need to break the $300M barrier, even at 8 years. That shouldn't be an insurmountable task for the Twins, and Correa's skill set suggests that even if he needs to move off of SS down to 3B that he has the ability to continue to perform at a high level throughout the duration of the contract.

Will anyone offer 10 years and $400M? I suspect that's probably outside the Twins willingness to go. But they should have the ability to punch up to $40M in AAV if they want to and Correa is the sort of player that I would be willing to make that investment.

[USAFChief]

22 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

... can we please not judge the entire offseason on one transaction that does or doesn't happen, can we please not make "we didn't even try" assertions on every free agent that we're not linked to, and and can we please wait until Opening Day to put a grade on the offseason?

 

  

 

I'm totally on board with this. Come spring, I'll be able to say "I tried."

[MoyBoy74]

Make the 9 for 324 million to Correa. He can play great SS for 5-6 more years. Then move to 3B. Then start signing core of young players to long term semi team friendly years like the Braves. We could build a good team for years to come. GoTwins!

[MoyBoy74]

2 minutes ago, MoyBoy74 said:

Make the 9 for 324 million to Correa. He can play great SS for 5-6 more years. Then move to 3B. Then start signing core of young players to long term semi team friendly years like the Braves. We could build a good team for years to come. GoTwins!

Maybe give opt outs at 3, 5, and 7 in this contract. Will also probably need no trade clause to get it done.

[Craig Arko]

Answer is simple: pony up the big contract and then trade him to the Yankees when it becomes a millstone.

[Steve71]

I would try something like 4 years, $150M for Correa.  I am leery of long-term deal, so willing to boost AAV to make up for that.

I would offer Rondon something along the lines of 3/$75M for the same reasons.

We need a good catcher, too.  No idea where that will come from as I expect Contreras will have multiple suitors.....

[Doctor Gast]

Jim Pohlad doesn't speak very often but when he does something happens. When Buxton extention talk was going on with Flavine, things were going south. Many pundits were already picking teams where Buxton was landing and many fans from TD had written him off (I was very frustrated). The way it was going w/ Flavine it wasn't going to happen. But then Pohlad spoke and then it happened. Buxton always wanted to stay so nothing change there except Pohlad spoke.

No way IMO that NYY, LAD or any other big shot will pursue Correa, contrary to rumor. #1 the cheating scandal that effected them. #2 All of them are going to make Judge their #1 priority. #3 they have other routes that they could take before signing Correa.

Besides competing w/ Judge for available FA $, he also has Turner, Bogeart & Swanson to compete against for the SS position. IMO he's not going get close to what he wants, my guess would be 9yrs./ 240M. IMO Pohlad has an idea what Correa could get & figures he has a shot of getting him. So I say we have better than 50/50 chance of landing him. If Inglesia or Andrus is our option of short term we better try harder to get Correa.

[Whitey333]

Yes we've heard that comment about the pohlads never turning us down, many, many, times over the years.  Yes they could afford to sign Correa.  But should they?  Allotting that much money and years to one position, under the Pohlads budget, probably wouldn't allow monies for some of the good players we already have.  Also wouldn't allow team to sign anyone else to fill some of the big holes in this Team.  I don't think they will sign Correa, not should they.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Yes we've heard that comment about the pohlads never turning us down, many, many, times over the years.  Yes they could afford to sign Correa.  But should they?  Allotting that much money and years to one position, under the Pohlads budget, probably wouldn't allow monies for some of the good players we already have.  Also wouldn't allow team to sign anyone else to fill some of the big holes in this Team.  I don't think they will sign Correa, not should they.

Which is why i'm against it.  I'd like to have Correa back but not at the money it's likely to take.  It will tie their hands effectively.  This team needs a decent catcher and at least one good starter.  I'd rather see them take a real shot at Willson Contreras and Carlos Rodon to start.  Correa makes that difficult in my opinion unless Jim opens the flood gates and dumps a bunch of money into the team and i don't see that happening.

[jctwins]

To think Jim Pohlad has any working knowledge of how things work with player negotiations is beyond generous.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, jctwins said:

To think Jim Pohlad has any working knowledge of how things work with player negotiations is beyond generous.

For starters, how would you have any idea what Jim Pohlad knows about player negotiations.  He certainly has far greater access to that information than any of us.  I guess the whole management is stupid scenario makes people feel better about themselves but it's the cry of ignorance.  Pohlad runs a large business and has much more experience negotiating contracts than 99% of the people here and to think he does not discuss the largest expenditures and those negotiations with the FO are fanatical rants and nothing more.

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, jctwins said:

To think Jim Pohlad has any working knowledge of how things work with player negotiations is beyond generous.

Does he need to have knowledge of how they work? I figure all he needs to do is tell his employees they should start.

[nicksaviking]

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Jim Pohlad doesn't speak very often but when he does something happens. When Buxton extention talk was going on with Flavine, things were going south. Many pundits were already picking teams where Buxton was landing and many fans from TD had written him off (I was very frustrated). The way it was going w/ Flavine it wasn't going to happen. But then Pohlad spoke and then it happened. Buxton always wanted to stay so nothing change there except Pohlad spoke.

Yeah, I kind of forgot about this, even though at the time, I'm pretty sure I posted that it sure sounded like extending Buxton was something Pohlad nudged Lavine to do, if not flat out told him to do. It was a week and a half before the extension when Pohlad, who doesn't do a ton of interviews regarding on-field activities, told Dan Hayes he didn't want the Twins to trade Buxton:

https://theathletic.com/2958689/2021/11/16/byron-buxtons-future-with-the-twins-remains-in-limbo-as-team-gauges-trade-interest-potential-extension-offers/?source=emp_shared_article

This situation doesn't sound too dissimilar. 

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, jctwins said:

To think Jim Pohlad has any working knowledge of how things work with player negotiations is beyond generous.

Pohlad is aloof... Rocco is an idiot. 

These type of statements used to express disappointment over 78-84 record is such a complete waste of time and space. 

[Loosey]

On 11/2/2022 at 11:28 AM, nicksaviking said:

 The biggest problem is that Falvey or Lavine (whos responsibility is this really?)

I was wondering this same thing recently.  I'm also wondering if this season doesn't work out well maybe they let one of them go.  Falvey was the guy they brought in to essentially change the culture, thought process and develop a pitching pipeline in the organization and it worked early on. They are now using analytics and changed the structure of the org.  Lavine seems to be the business/baseball guy.  I would like to see how things worked out if Lavine was the THE guy at some point to see if he goes in and doesn't try to outsmart himself while still using the tools they have now. 

[IndianaTwin]

On 11/3/2022 at 10:54 AM, jmlease1 said:

I'd love for this to be the deal, but I don't think this comes very close to getting it done. 8 years might be sufficient, but the AAV falls short of what I expect Correa to be asking for and frankly what I think the league will see as his value. As you've noted, the $35.1M wasn't a coincidence and pride matters to both players and agents, so an expectation that Correa will now take less salary in AAV than he made this season in his next contract feels very unrealistic to me.

I would expect any deal for Correa to need to break the $300M barrier, even at 8 years. That shouldn't be an insurmountable task for the Twins, and Correa's skill set suggests that even if he needs to move off of SS down to 3B that he has the ability to continue to perform at a high level throughout the duration of the contract.

Will anyone offer 10 years and $400M? I suspect that's probably outside the Twins willingness to go. But they should have the ability to punch up to $40M in AAV if they want to and Correa is the sort of player that I would be willing to make that investment.

I'm not sure either whether this would get it done -- I'm just not sure I'd want to go much further. My thought was that if he could only get three years of $35.1M AAV last year, it's going to be hard for him to get more years at that level this year. This gets him an additional two years at that level, plus another four years at close to that level. 

After adding up my numbers to get eight years at $270M, I realized that adding a ninth year at the $30M level would get him to that $300M number. But I'd be cautious about eight years, let alone a ninth.

And my take on the front office is that they are more cautious about committing length than they are about committing AAV. Plus, in the industry, there seems to be a move toward opt-outs. I don't know if my numbers are right, but I could see a team using a structure along the lines of what I suggested.

"Creativity and flexibility" in contract structure also seems to fit both the Boras and the Twins MO, so I see that as a potential advantage for the Twins over other teams in negotiations. Boras has already found that the Twins will listen to creative ideas. 

 

 

[dxpavelka]

On 11/2/2022 at 7:14 PM, Linus said:

Only a fool listens to Jim Pohlad. 

I, for one, wish that YOU would pony up and buy the team.  Then I could just get rich buying stock in World Series parades.

[dxpavelka]

On 11/3/2022 at 12:01 PM, Steve71 said:

I would try something like 4 years, $150M for Correa.  I am leery of long-term deal, so willing to boost AAV to make up for that.

I would offer Rondon something along the lines of 3/$75M for the same reasons.

We need a good catcher, too.  No idea where that will come from as I expect Contreras will have multiple suitors.....

I was thinking 5 years $190.  Fairly long deal but not too long.  Allows him to cash in one one more similar length deal afterwards maybe at an even higher number.  $38 million AAV. 

[dxpavelka]

On 11/2/2022 at 8:05 PM, Brandon said:

The size of the Twins market vs others is a little skewed by the fact that Minneapolis is the smallest market with every single sports franchise.  Hockey, NBA, WNBA, Soccer, NFL and MLB.  and independent baseball league if its still up and running.  so the Twins are also competing with these franchises and college teams for sponsorship and corporate money.  This hinders our revenues some too.

And I bet that every team in every one of those bigger markets has a bigger cable deal than the Twins do.  Which I bet leads to higher customer costs for cable in those markets.  So, if we as fans would be willing to help subsidize it, by increasing our cable bills by 50 to 75% we'd probably be able to compete with those other markets.  C'mon, let's go.  Let's do our part.  It's on us.  Rah, rah, rah.

[dxpavelka]

On 11/2/2022 at 11:28 AM, nicksaviking said:

The biggest problem is that Falvey or Lavine (whos responsibility is this really? we SHOULD know that as fans)

What do you mean you don't know who is responsible?  Have you not been paying attention.  Or paying attention to the Vikings also for the last 10 months.  It's EVERYONE'S responsibility.  Cooperation, Collaboration, Communication.  Duckies & Bunnies.  Peace, Love, Dope. 

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And I bet that every team in every one of those bigger markets has a bigger cable deal than the Twins do.  Which I bet leads to higher customer costs for cable in those markets.  So, if we as fans would be willing to help subsidize it, by increasing our cable bills by 50 to 75% we'd probably be able to compete with those other markets.  C'mon, let's go.  Let's do our part.  It's on us.  Rah, rah, rah.

The Twins do get less revenue from cable and radio deals.  that would help if they could get an extra 15-20 million extra per season from this.  and if we could somehow get attendance up to the 2.5 million range, that would also add to the ability to spend.  I wonder how much more revenue is in an extra 400,000 - 600,000 more fans at games.  If the average fan spends 60 - 80 for the ticket and food and stuff thats an extra 24 million to 48 million in revenue.  So lets pay more for cable and lets all go to more games.  That could theoretically add an extra 25 to 40 million for payroll with more money still going to the Twins.  

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

What do you mean you don't know who is responsible?  Have you not been paying attention.  Or paying attention to the Vikings also for the last 10 months.  It's EVERYONE'S responsibility.  Cooperation, Collaboration, Communication.  Duckies & Bunnies.  Peace, Love, Dope. 

Unfortunately for me, I’ve never worked for a company where everyone was as equally good and bad at their jobs.

Hypothetically, if some parties happened to not be pulling their weight, I’d hate to put my job on the line with them.

 

[MABB1959]

Fun article.  So wish we had a FO that knew how to build a WS caliber team.  They throw us a bone occasionally but those bones stay with the team a year or two (Correa, NCruz, Donaldson). 
 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34902054/world-series-2022-houston-astros-shortstop-jeremy-pena?platform=amp

[dex8425]

On 11/2/2022 at 3:14 PM, IndianaTwin said:

I could reasonably see it being beyond $300M. There's an element of one upmanship and pride in these negotiations. The .1 in $35.1M wasn't coincidence -- it allowed him to top Rendon in AAV among infielders. With that in mind, I think it will take either some years at >$35M or at $300M in total, since that's a nice round number. Perhaps both.

So here's the idea that I've floated elsewhere...

8 years at $270M. The first four years at $36M, followed by two at $33M and two at $30M, with opt outs after four and six years.

Correa gets...

• A raise for the first four years and in the neighborhood of some of the biggies that have happened. 
• The ability to opt out if he thinks he can beat 4 years for $126M at age 31 or 2 years for $60M at age 33.
• A slightly front-loaded contract, which is beneficial for investment purposes. 

The Twins get...

• A bit of salary relief after four and six years if he opts in.
• A lot of salary relief after four or six years if he opts out.
• The ability for Lewis to play 3B for several years, flip-flopping with Correa at the appropriate time (think ARod moving to 3B). 

Is that close? I'm not sure it's enough, but I'm also not sure I'd go much further. 

 

Yeah, I think it's close but I think he will get a 300 million plus offer from at least one team. It might be a lower AAV though, so it's possible Correa takes a frontloaded contract with player opt outs?

[dex8425]

On 11/2/2022 at 8:24 PM, bunsen82 said:

I will say 30% chance.  
 

The Yankees will spend their money on resigning Judge, Where I think this falls is on the Dodgers and Trea Turner. I think the Dodgers are willing to resign Turner and can outspend any other team.  So does Trea Turner want to go back to a team on the East coast or resign, I say he will resign.  
 

So then it really opens up.  Cubs and Atlanta could outspend. I think the Twins feel comfortable with Correa. They may be willing to do a bigger contract now that he has been in the system for a year.  7 years 245 million-250 million is the end game.  
 

If the Twins are serious which I think they are, and the two major bidders are out of the equation, the Twins have a punchers shot.  

The Dodgers would need to beat the Twins offer because of CA income tax. Big reason why Seager signed with Texas instead of LAD. I still agree with you that Turner re-signs with LAD, and if he doesn't, the Twins will be outbid by some other team not named the dodgers. Because the Cubs stink, they'd have to beat the Twins offer by quite a bit. Perhaps Atlanta, maybe the Orioles? Cardinals?