Time to move Buxton out of CF?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1) Just to be clear, I am not definitively saying they need to move him from CF.  I agree with many of the posts in in that moving him from CF reduces his value.  That being said (similar to Mauer), the contract is sunk money, so his current "value" is somewhat irrelevant.

2) I think CF is a higher risk not because of the wall crashing, but because they are the general out there.  They are expected to catch everything and make the calls on tough outfield plays.  I think that inherently puts them at a higher risk.  Is the risk so much higher that they should move him?  That I do not know.

3) I am assuming Kepler will be here next year.  As much as the fans are down on him at the moment, he brings (at worst) overall average value for his position, with a reasonable expectation his offensive numbers will go up some next year.  There are bigger issues the Twins need to deal with for 2023.  I would tell Kepler that his value (and next contract) would rise if if he played CF more.  Make it work.

4) The Bill James quote was speaking in abstracts.  Remember Soul Patrol from the early 2000's.  Jones and Hunter covered about 90% of the outfield themselves, Cuddyer just had to stand there, look like a linebacker, and throw runners out.  Putting Buxton in RF (or even LF) with a quality defensive CF is a devastating defensive alignment.

 

To me, the interesting piece would be if a quality CF were to fall in their lap.  How would they proceed?

[Game7-91]

Buck has been hurt stretching for 1B, sliding into 2nd, rounding 3rd, in the batters box, anywhere in proximity of the dugout, sliding in left, diving in right, crashing in center, putting his underwear on in the morning, shaving, stepping out of his car, and reading in his recliner. Doesnt matter what position, he's getting hurt.

Twins have to plan on Buck going down 80 games per year. Ergo, they need a platoon plan for CF. Somebody, not Kepler, is CF 1B. Buck is 1A, until he's hurt. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Just looking at the Kepler aspect of this, Max is resistant to playing CF for whatever reason. It's part of the reason (of many reasons) why I'm ready to move on from Kepler and hope he is traded. He'd be a much more valuable asset as a tweener that plays CF but he won't do it. Given the other flaws in his game, I'm done with him.

And in extremely microscopic sample size, he doesn’t any longer seem to be very good in CF either.

2020 -1 OAA 8 attempts 

2021 0 OAA 50 attempts

2022 -1 OAA 5 attempts

Maybe chalk that up to rust or small samples or just throw it out as noise, but I see that as another data point as a reason to move on.

his RF fielding is excellent, and can’t hit near well enough for that fielding to be an asset. Combined with not wanting or capable to play CF, he’s a defensive substitute without a position to meaningfully provide defensive upgrade.

[Squirrel]

You move Buxton now, then you have created a bigger hole to fill, imo. 

[mnfireman]

Buxton on one leg is still faster than 92% of MLB...... I believe earlier in the season his sprint speed was higher (closer to or right at 30ft/sec) and there were only a couple players higher. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

1) Just to be clear, I am not definitively saying they need to move him from CF.  I agree with many of the posts in in that moving him from CF reduces his value.  That being said (similar to Mauer), the contract is sunk money, so his current "value" is somewhat irrelevant.

The money isn't relevant to what I meant by value either.  I'm talking about the bat and glove.  The value in terms of wins and losses.

Buxton's bat is good in terms of other major leaguers, but not elite.  As a DH, he's kind of run of the mill.  As a corner outfielder, or wherever you'd place him instead of CF, the bat's maybe a bit above average. 

By contrast, the value he brings when he plays CF is twofold - 1) the defense is elite, not just in terms of speed but also the routes he takes and the infrequency of mistakes once he hauls in the ball, and 2) if he's in CF then you don't have to force a bat like Celestino's* in the lineup, and you can put an actual good bat at DH instead.

My aim for a contending club is that when you compare the lineup against your day's opponent, you have an advantage at as many spots as possible, and at least parity at the others.  With Buxton at DH, the opponent probably fields someone just as dangerous.  With Buxton at CF, we have an edge against pretty much every team at that spot.

If Buxton's unavailable due to injury, that edge is missing.  So I want to keep him healthy.  But if keeping him healthy means giving up the edge against the competition, have you really accomplished anything?

 

* I actually think Celestino still has time to develop as a hitter.  I'm talking about the 2022 version we saw.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

The money isn't relevant to what I meant by value either.  I'm talking about the bat and glove.  The value in terms of wins and losses.

Buxton's bat is good in terms of other major leaguers, but not elite.  As a DH, he's kind of run of the mill.  As a corner outfielder, or wherever you'd place him instead of CF, he's maybe a bit above average.  By contrast, the value he brings when he plays CF is twofold - 1) he's way above average, not just in terms of speed but also the routes he takes and the infrequency of mistakes once he hauls in the ball, and 2) if he's in CF then you don't have to force a bat like Celestino's* in the lineup, and you can put an actual good bat at DH instead.

 

* I actually think Celestino still has time to develop as a hitter.  I'm talking about the 2022 version we saw.

Agree 100%,  The best option for all parties is for Buxton to play CF.

Let's try asking this another way:  Would you rather have Buxton in CF for 95 games, or Buxton in RF for 130 games?  It is basically a cost-benefit analysis.  If the Twins believe that moving him out of CF would reduce his injury risk, this would be the decision they have to make.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You make it sound like most CFers are slow, plodding runners who have no chance to run into someone or the wall at high speed. That simply isn't true. And here's a chart that proves it. Buxton is at 29.1 ft/s, by the way. So he's not even at the elite end of that chart separating himself from the pack. He was the 25th fastest CFer in baseball this year.

I didn't say anything remotely about CFers being slow, I'm sorry that you took it that way. Basicly what I said is Buxton is elite, not all CFers are elite. Elite goes beyond speed, it's getting a good jump, route patterns and have that determination of catching the ball no matter what.

I have a news flash for you, in '22 Buxton was hurt most of the season. Most of his time in CF he was playing at much less than 100% (I'm totally against playing him this way). Again you can't take all stats at face value, you have to look at under-lying conditions. Why can't you get beyond stats?

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Let's try asking this another way:  Would you rather have Buxton in CF for 95 games, or Buxton in RF for 130 games?

The former. 

Of course, that's a pretty coarse-grain analysis to offer.  Given that his injuries were not mainly incurred on defense in 2022, I don't know if RF really increases the number of expected games that much.  And it matters which 95 games in CF - if it was like this year and he's lost to the team by August then I'm not as enthusiastic about the 95, but if in another year he's off and on but ready to go in the post-season, then it's a good tradeoff.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I didn't say anything remotely about CFers being slow, I'm sorry that you took it that way. Basicly what I said is Buxton is elite, not all CFers are elite. Elite goes beyond speed, it's getting a good jump, route patterns and have that determination of catching the ball no matter what.

I have a news flash for you, in '22 Buxton was hurt most of the season. Most of his time in CF he was playing at much less than 100%. Again you can't take all stats at face value, you have to look at under-lying conditions. Why can't you get beyond stats?

I mean you're not explaining anything that has anything at all to do with players getting hurt more by playing CF. Why does Buxton getting a better jump than Siri make him more likely to run into something? Why does Buxton having a more efficient route pattern than Straw make him more likely to run into something? If Buxton is hurting himself because he refuses to not catch a ball (he's not, by the way, since he's not getting hurt by running into things) he needs to be smarter about not running into things and allowing a single or double by letting the ball hit the wall. 

Buxton being elite in CF doesn't lead to injuries. There's no reason to think it does. Especially since he isn't getting hurt playing CF! Like you're connecting injuries he suffered away from CF to playing CF. I understand your news flash, but it doesn't disprove the point. The fact that Buxton was hurt all year by injuries that didn't take place in CF doesn't help your point. In fact it directly refutes it. I can get beyond stats. The problem I have is that you're not using any sort of real stat or information. You're just saying "I think CF is dangerous!" That's not convincing. First you said Lewis was in more danger in CF than he'd be in the IF. I showed you that the numbers said that wasn't true. Then you said there's not enough CFers like Lewis and Buxton (Lewis isn't elite by the way so that kind of shoots your own point down right from the start) and I showed you that there's plenty of uber athletic CFers in the game. So now you've changed your story to Buxton getting too good of jumps and having too good of route patterns and that is why he gets hurt.

I don't see the logic in that in any way, shape, or form. "He's too good at center field so he's always hurt" isn't an argument. Why wasn't Hunter always hurt? He was elite. Why wasn't Andruw Jones always hurt? He was maybe the best CFer ever. Kirby? Jim Edmonds? Willie Mays? Kenny Lofton? Steve Finley? Bernie Williams? Griffey (before he turned 31)? Why weren't those guys all hurt all the time? They were pretty elite CFers. Torii got great jumps and ran super efficient routes and ran into the wall all the time. He just wasn't fast enough?

[Cris E]

We had far too many CF and 2B injuries last year, but we had pretty good stability at 3B. So I think for 2023 we should play a lot more guys at 3B and reduce playing so many games CF/2B.  This goes double for pitchers, they get hurt at a crazy rate so we should play all of them at 3B as well. 

Ahem. Some guys get hurt, others don't. Maybe it's a body type (skinny fast guys placing huge strains on slender frames vs monster slow moving masses on heavy frames) or maybe it's personality (Jimmy Piersal hitting the wall every year because he never gave up on any ball) or maybe it's luck or stupidity or Aztec curses. Doesn't matter, you teach broad skills to all your guys to avoid getting hit by pitches, not run into walls, improve flexibility to make baserunning safer, etc. Then you talk to them individually about how to mitigate problem behaviors like wearing better pads if you want to hang in the strike zone like that, or playing deeper to make it less likely you run into the wall, or move to DH if you can't stay safe in the field.

Worrying about injury prevention is a bigger deal for some guys than others. I honestly believe it's a skill that some guys master and others don't. Cal Ripken wasn't lucky he never got hit in the hand, he got hit just like everyone else. But he took pains to not get injured when it happened. You do that by identifying pitches earlier, not standing in when things look dangerous, and keeping your hands, arms, face, etc hidden behind your back and shoulder. Same with not running into walls or other guys, same with sliding into bases: situational awareness is something to develop and weigh into your choices on the field. But like strike zone discipline, it's easier to say than do sometimes.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

50 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The former. 

Of course, that's a pretty coarse-grain analysis to offer.  Given that his injuries were not mainly incurred on defense in 2022, I don't know if RF really increases the number of expected games that much.  And it matters which 95 games in CF - if it was like this year and he's lost to the team by August then I'm not as enthusiastic about the 95, but if in another year he's off and on but ready to go in the post-season, then it's a good tradeoff.

Very course analysis.  No sureties here. Just another way I think the Twins could look at it.  My research is sparse, I freely admit that.  On the other hand, the Twins should be researching and analyzing this to death. 

If the Twins believe a move to the corner would have a greater chance of keeping Buxton healthy all year, then I think they would need to consider it.  How strongly to consider depends on what the actuaries say...  

[Trov]

The only reason I would think about supporting this idea, is that we always need a backup for Buck, because we know he is likely to miss half the games anyways.  So if we can get a good CF moving Buck to RF, then I would support it.  However, if we are just looking to swap Kepler with Buck next year in hopes of giving more games to Buck, I would not support that. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean you're not explaining anything that has anything at all to do with players getting hurt more by playing CF. Why does Buxton getting a better jump than Siri make him more likely to run into something? Why does Buxton having a more efficient route pattern than Straw make him more likely to run into something? If Buxton is hurting himself because he refuses to not catch a ball (he's not, by the way, since he's not getting hurt by running into things) he needs to be smarter about not running into things and allowing a single or double by letting the ball hit the wall. 

Buxton being elite in CF doesn't lead to injuries. There's no reason to think it does. Especially since he isn't getting hurt playing CF! Like you're connecting injuries he suffered away from CF to playing CF. I understand your news flash, but it doesn't disprove the point. The fact that Buxton was hurt all year by injuries that didn't take place in CF doesn't help your point. In fact it directly refutes it. I can get beyond stats. The problem I have is that you're not using any sort of real stat or information. You're just saying "I think CF is dangerous!" That's not convincing. First you said Lewis was in more danger in CF than he'd be in the IF. I showed you that the numbers said that wasn't true. Then you said there's not enough CFers like Lewis and Buxton (Lewis isn't elite by the way so that kind of shoots your own point down right from the start) and I showed you that there's plenty of uber athletic CFers in the game. So now you've changed your story to Buxton getting too good of jumps and having too good of route patterns and that is why he gets hurt.

I don't see the logic in that in any way, shape, or form. "He's too good at center field so he's always hurt" isn't an argument. Why wasn't Hunter always hurt? He was elite. Why wasn't Andruw Jones always hurt? He was maybe the best CFer ever. Kirby? Jim Edmonds? Willie Mays? Kenny Lofton? Steve Finley? Bernie Williams? Griffey (before he turned 31)? Why weren't those guys all hurt all the time? They were pretty elite CFers. Torii got great jumps and ran super efficient routes and ran into the wall all the time. He just wasn't fast enough?

I'm sorry I used the word elite & defined it. My intent wasn't to equate elite CFers with injuries. But my point was that a CFer, especially those who recently been hurt that goes full bore and run into the fence are more apt to get  hurt than those who do not . Why tell Buxton or Lewis to tone it down if it isn't dangerous? You can put Lewis in CF & say to him "Tone it down" & hope he resists but I'd rather keep him in the INF and play full bore.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm sorry I used the word elite & defined it. My intent wasn't to equate elite CFers with injuries. But my point was that a CFer, especially those who recently been hurt that goes full bore and run into the fence are more apt to get  hurt than those who do not . Why tell Buxton or Lewis to tone it down if it isn't dangerous? You can say to Lewis "Tone it down" but I'd rather keep him in the INF and play full bore.

But playing in the IF doesn't save him from injury. That's the point. Just as many injuries happen to IFers as they do to OFers. That's the entire point here that you're simply ignoring. 3B going full bore had 1 fewer injuries in that study than CFers going full bore. You can say "context" all you want, but that's a full season's worth of data. It includes all your context. SS had 10 fewer injuries in a full season. My point is you have no basis or data or anything to support the idea that putting Lewis in the IF will keep him from being hurt. Pretty sure Lewis going "full bore" into the hole to backhand a ball and plant that recently injured right knee, put almost all his weight on it, and then twist it to throw back across the field puts just as much strain on that knee as he got jumping into the wall.

And, for the record, I'm not suggesting them tell Buxton or Lewis to tone it down. And the Twins didn't tell Buxton to tone it down. They lined him up deeper in CF and taught him how to go into the wall safer. And now he's not getting hurt running into the wall. Or playing CF. Another fact you're ignoring. I'm more than willing to listen to reasoning when it comes to moving Buxton to a corner or Lewis to the IF. It's why my very first comment was a question asking if there was data showing it was safer. There wasn't. So why would we move guys off more important defensive positions when there's no reason to believe they're more likely to get hurt playing CF?

The data we've been provided has a ton of gaps and isn't really that good. 86 CFers going on the IL doesn't mean anything if you don't know how the injuries occur. But you haven't provided any reason to believe playing CF is more dangerous. You're convinced it is and that's fine. I'd like a team to have actual info before they talk about moving Buxton out of center. I'd love to see any studies you can provide that suggest CFers are more apt to get hurt, though. I know, I know, me and my silly need for actual data and not just feelings.

[MoyBoy74]

On 11/2/2022 at 6:22 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed with others, shouldn’t move him until his speed deteriorated.

Also, having lesser alternatives to Buxton shouldn’t be a reason to move him. It should be a reason not to.

Maybe in a few years, we have a few good minor league CF from what I have read online.

[saviking]

Another good topic! You guys are on a roll today.

But no. Buxton's injury prone no matter where you put him in the outfield. Aren't there walls in left and right field as well. His greatest asset is speed. Let him use it in centerfield until he get's hurt cuz, no know he's going to ...

[darin617]

DH

[Linus]

This is a dumb idea. You don’t take the best defensive CF on the planet and move him to a less important position on the idea that he might get hurt less. Besides he gets hurt batting and running the bases. 

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

This is a dumb idea. You don’t take the best defensive CF on the planet and move him to a less important position on the idea that he might get hurt less. Besides he gets hurt batting and running the bases. 

Paranoia is running wild in the mind's of some fans.

[Riverbrian]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:52 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Very course analysis.  No sureties here. Just another way I think the Twins could look at it.  My research is sparse, I freely admit that.  On the other hand, the Twins should be researching and analyzing this to death. 

If the Twins believe a move to the corner would have a greater chance of keeping Buxton healthy all year, then I think they would need to consider it.  How strongly to consider depends on what the actuaries say...  

Thanks for the topic. I appreciate this as a thought exercise. It's been a fun read. I love out of the box thinking. You are a talented poster in my opinion. 

The data doesn't look like it supports the idea enough.

Does that data from 2017 repeat in 2018 and 2019 etc. etc. ?

Even if it does repeat. Lots of performers throwing data into a pot at every position. Is the risk increase or decrease for a single individual miniscule or massive? 

But perhaps most importantly... How does anyone write Max Kepler's name into a starting spot and say covered? ? ?

[wsnydes]

To me, this discussion is akin to the DH discussion for him.  He's been hurt hitting, running and fielding.  The only way to avoid injury appears to be to move him to coach.  Moving him to a place where there's an extra wall to worry about seems antithetical to the solution.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:47 PM, Cris E said:

We had far too many CF and 2B injuries last year, but we had pretty good stability at 3B. So I think for 2023 we should play a lot more guys at 3B and reduce playing so many games CF/2B.  This goes double for pitchers, they get hurt at a crazy rate so we should play all of them at 3B as well. 

Ahem. Some guys get hurt, others don't. Maybe it's a body type (skinny fast guys placing huge strains on slender frames vs monster slow moving masses on heavy frames) or maybe it's personality (Jimmy Piersal hitting the wall every year because he never gave up on any ball) or maybe it's luck or stupidity or Aztec curses. Doesn't matter, you teach broad skills to all your guys to avoid getting hit by pitches, not run into walls, improve flexibility to make baserunning safer, etc. Then you talk to them individually about how to mitigate problem behaviors like wearing better pads if you want to hang in the strike zone like that, or playing deeper to make it less likely you run into the wall, or move to DH if you can't stay safe in the field.

Worrying about injury prevention is a bigger deal for some guys than others. I honestly believe it's a skill that some guys master and others don't. Cal Ripken wasn't lucky he never got hit in the hand, he got hit just like everyone else. But he took pains to not get injured when it happened. You do that by identifying pitches earlier, not standing in when things look dangerous, and keeping your hands, arms, face, etc hidden behind your back and shoulder. Same with not running into walls or other guys, same with sliding into bases: situational awareness is something to develop and weigh into your choices on the field. But like strike zone discipline, it's easier to say than do sometimes.  

Agreed, there’s things players can do to mitigate risk. Things happen sometimes. A guy is injury prone until he isn’t. A guy is an iron man until he isn’t. Cal Ripken was lucky to an extent, as well as employed tactics to mitigate risk, and probably had a higher pain tolerance too. Cal is a very bad example as MLB record holder. Comparing anyone to that lofty standard will surely result in failure.

also, I found your exaggerated “play everyone at 3rd” quite amusing. I think the shift ban would make that illegal