Ohtani Contract, what would it look like?

[Trov]

I know he is not a FA yet, but set to be one after his next season, so many teams are looking to maybe trade for and extend him.  He will be entering his 29 age season when his new contract is coming.  Now, in a normal player, you can look at a lot of comps as to what his contract could look like.  However, he is not a normal player, and not since Babe Ruth have we seen a pitcher be a hitter as well.  Ruth stopped doing both when he was sold to the Yankees after 1919, except for a few games here or there or later in his career.  Of course we cannot compare those contracts.

Now, if we looked just at pitching, I think Gerrit Cole could be a decent comparison, Cole had better strike outs and more innings the years prior, but still a top tier pitcher Cy Young candidate who was entering year 29.  Cole got 9 years, averaging 36 mil a year.  I think if Ohtani was just a pitcher we would see something a little less than this, but not much.  I normally would never sign a pitcher to that long of a deal, let alone at age 29.  He will be 38 when it is done, and expect a bit of drop off, and high chance of injuries. Ohtani did pitch less games over last couple years than Cole and has had some injury issues, which is why I would expect less years and less money, but Ohtani would still be looking about 7 years at around 30 mil, just as a pitcher I would bet.

However, Ohtani, can hit like an MVP as well.  He has a career slash .267/.354/.532 with an OPS+ of 139.  He only DH's, to help save any arm injuries, but he could play OF most likely.  There are many hitters entering age 29 season FA that we could compare, but none that are just a DH, so you do need to take that into account.  However, just as a bat, I looked at a few recent signings around age 29.  George Springer signed at age 31 season, got 6 years at 25 a year.  He was mixing between CF and RF at this time, and slashed close to Ohtani with less HR overall.  Kris Bryant signed entering age 30 season, and mostly as a bat at this point. He signed 7 years 27 a year.  He slashed close again, with less HR overall to Ohtani.  Corey Seager entering his age 28 season, signed 10 years at 35 a year.  Now he does play SS, but expected to move to 3b at some point, but still considered average defender, so not a true comparison to a bat only kind of guy, but trying to get cross section of age and offense.  Seager slashed with higher average on OBP, but lower slugging and much less HR, hitting less than 100 entering contract year, Ohtani has 127 and still 1 more year until contract year. 

Again, it is impossible to compare truly a value for Ohtani as there is no one to fully compare to.  If we look just at WAR, the average cost per WAR in a FA is around 8.5 to 9 mil.  Lets say 9.  If  team paid for Ohtani full WAR value, they would be paying close to 81 million, as he has got a 9 WAR the last 2 seasons.  Of course he will not get 81 million over a single season.  If we compare WAR, Mike Trout would be the closest, but he signed his contract at age 26 season, so length is not going to be as long, but annual value may be close.  Trout contract is 35 mil average.  It was signed 5 years ago though. 

So what does an Ohtani contract look like?  I would be willing to bet it will be around a 9 year deal, around 40 mil a year, if not 45 a year.  Why do I say that?  I would say because what he does both pitching and hitting, he will continue to put up high WAR numbers as he has, for the next several years.  He has shown even when he has a pitching injury, he can still hit, so less risk of losing him for time even with a pitching injury.  Also, the cost of contracts are going up.  Look at Seager, he got same annual value as Trout, but never had a WAR close to Trout, never having a WAR more than 5.2.  Trout had WAR of average of like 9 a year.  Really, he got hosed on his deal if you look at true WAR.  His value has decreased due to injuries mainly, when healthy Trout still putting up crazy numbers. 

So with no true comparison, what do you think an Ohtani contract will look like?   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I know he is not a FA yet, but set to be one after his next season, so many teams are looking to maybe trade for and extend him.  He will be entering his 29 age season when his new contract is coming.  Now, in a normal player, you can look at a lot of comps as to what his contract could look like.  However, he is not a normal player, and not since Babe Ruth have we seen a pitcher be a hitter as well.  Ruth stopped doing both when he was sold to the Yankees after 1919, except for a few games here or there or later in his career.  Of course we cannot compare those contracts.

Now, if we looked just at pitching, I think Gerrit Cole could be a decent comparison, Cole had better strike outs and more innings the years prior, but still a top tier pitcher Cy Young candidate who was entering year 29.  Cole got 9 years, averaging 36 mil a year.  I think if Ohtani was just a pitcher we would see something a little less than this, but not much.  I normally would never sign a pitcher to that long of a deal, let alone at age 29.  He will be 38 when it is done, and expect a bit of drop off, and high chance of injuries. Ohtani did pitch less games over last couple years than Cole and has had some injury issues, which is why I would expect less years and less money, but Ohtani would still be looking about 7 years at around 30 mil, just as a pitcher I would bet.

However, Ohtani, can hit like an MVP as well.  He has a career slash .267/.354/.532 with an OPS+ of 139.  He only DH's, to help save any arm injuries, but he could play OF most likely.  There are many hitters entering age 29 season FA that we could compare, but none that are just a DH, so you do need to take that into account.  However, just as a bat, I looked at a few recent signings around age 29.  George Springer signed at age 31 season, got 6 years at 25 a year.  He was mixing between CF and RF at this time, and slashed close to Ohtani with less HR overall.  Kris Bryant signed entering age 30 season, and mostly as a bat at this point. He signed 7 years 27 a year.  He slashed close again, with less HR overall to Ohtani.  Corey Seager entering his age 28 season, signed 10 years at 35 a year.  Now he does play SS, but expected to move to 3b at some point, but still considered average defender, so not a true comparison to a bat only kind of guy, but trying to get cross section of age and offense.  Seager slashed with higher average on OBP, but lower slugging and much less HR, hitting less than 100 entering contract year, Ohtani has 127 and still 1 more year until contract year. 

Again, it is impossible to compare truly a value for Ohtani as there is no one to fully compare to.  If we look just at WAR, the average cost per WAR in a FA is around 8.5 to 9 mil.  Lets say 9.  If  team paid for Ohtani full WAR value, they would be paying close to 81 million, as he has got a 9 WAR the last 2 seasons.  Of course he will not get 81 million over a single season.  If we compare WAR, Mike Trout would be the closest, but he signed his contract at age 26 season, so length is not going to be as long, but annual value may be close.  Trout contract is 35 mil average.  It was signed 5 years ago though. 

So what does an Ohtani contract look like?  I would be willing to bet it will be around a 9 year deal, around 40 mil a year, if not 45 a year.  Why do I say that?  I would say because what he does both pitching and hitting, he will continue to put up high WAR numbers as he has, for the next several years.  He has shown even when he has a pitching injury, he can still hit, so less risk of losing him for time even with a pitching injury.  Also, the cost of contracts are going up.  Look at Seager, he got same annual value as Trout, but never had a WAR close to Trout, never having a WAR more than 5.2.  Trout had WAR of average of like 9 a year.  Really, he got hosed on his deal if you look at true WAR.  His value has decreased due to injuries mainly, when healthy Trout still putting up crazy numbers. 

So with no true comparison, what do you think an Ohtani contract will look like?   

Ohtani played part time outfield for the Fighters. 
 

He’s still 28, he’ll turn 30 during the first year of his new contract.

$300m seems light. $400m seems heavy, probably in the 7-8 year length, maybe 9 just to spread the money out.

OTH maybe he gets paid like a pitcher, incentivized like a hitter?

7 years $275m plus big bonuses for MVP and Cy Young awards?

[Rosterman]

It would be an epic sining for the Twins, if they didn't have to trade for him instead. The Twins would have to give up waaaaaay too much to pry him away from the Angels.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

As I have said elsewhere, probably the one player in baseball truly worth whatever he gets.

- His on field accomplishments really have no comp.  Above average hitter and pitcher.
- His laid back personality and likeability.
- The Japanese market he brings along with him.

I really don't think you can overpay here.  I would trade our top 3 prospects plus players for him (with an extension).  $350m/7 years should do it.  The Twins would make that back in spades.  Think Ichiro with the Mariners.

Now... The Twins would never do this.  But I think any team would and should.

[Shobae]

I think with Ohtani the biggest question is how long he will be able to stay a two way player. From what he's said in interviews he doesn't want to give up doing both any time soon as well as saying that he thinks doing both complements the other skill. So it's possible he'd go back to off days (like in 18) if needed to keep up the performance.
That being said would teams prefer a shorter term high AAV deal where it's likely he will be a TWP or will he be looking for a long term deal but then there would be a question what happens if he's unable to be a TWP during the contract. For a short term deal I think he gets at least 50 million AAV so something like 200/4 or 250/5 seems plausible. For a longer term deal perhaps you could structure it like 20 million base salary, then for 60 IP he gets 5 mil and at 120 IP he gets 10 mil. Then for hitter 300 PA gets him 5 and for 502 PA he gets 10. So that means if he's a healthy TWP he gets 50 mil but if he goes to being a position player/pitcher he would get 35 mil, which seems fair to me. I agree that 7-8 years would probably be what you'd be looking at for that kind of a deal so it'd be between 160/8 or 400/8.
The thing to keep in mind with Ohtani though is everyone who's bet against him so far have been made to look like fools. So if he's still doing this at 35 I can't say I would be entirely shocked. He just plays a different game from the rest of the best players in the world.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

1 hour ago, Shobae said:

I think with Ohtani the biggest question is how long he will be able to stay a two way player. From what he's said in interviews he doesn't want to give up doing both any time soon as well as saying that he thinks doing both complements the other skill. So it's possible he'd go back to off days (like in 18) if needed to keep up the performance.
That being said would teams prefer a shorter term high AAV deal where it's likely he will be a TWP or will he be looking for a long term deal but then there would be a question what happens if he's unable to be a TWP during the contract. For a short term deal I think he gets at least 50 million AAV so something like 200/4 or 250/5 seems plausible. For a longer term deal perhaps you could structure it like 20 million base salary, then for 60 IP he gets 5 mil and at 120 IP he gets 10 mil. Then for hitter 300 PA gets him 5 and for 502 PA he gets 10. So that means if he's a healthy TWP he gets 50 mil but if he goes to being a position player/pitcher he would get 35 mil, which seems fair to me. I agree that 7-8 years would probably be what you'd be looking at for that kind of a deal so it'd be between 160/8 or 400/8.
The thing to keep in mind with Ohtani though is everyone who's bet against him so far have been made to look like fools. So if he's still doing this at 35 I can't say I would be entirely shocked. He just plays a different game from the rest of the best players in the world.

I also like the incentive laden contract to protect against paying too much AAV during the one way player if that should occur.

[JD-TWINS]

On 10/31/2022 at 11:27 AM, Trov said:

I know he is not a FA yet, but set to be one after his next season, so many teams are looking to maybe trade for and extend him.  He will be entering his 29 age season when his new contract is coming.  Now, in a normal player, you can look at a lot of comps as to what his contract could look like.  However, he is not a normal player, and not since Babe Ruth have we seen a pitcher be a hitter as well.  Ruth stopped doing both when he was sold to the Yankees after 1919, except for a few games here or there or later in his career.  Of course we cannot compare those contracts.

Now, if we looked just at pitching, I think Gerrit Cole could be a decent comparison, Cole had better strike outs and more innings the years prior, but still a top tier pitcher Cy Young candidate who was entering year 29.  Cole got 9 years, averaging 36 mil a year.  I think if Ohtani was just a pitcher we would see something a little less than this, but not much.  I normally would never sign a pitcher to that long of a deal, let alone at age 29.  He will be 38 when it is done, and expect a bit of drop off, and high chance of injuries. Ohtani did pitch less games over last couple years than Cole and has had some injury issues, which is why I would expect less years and less money, but Ohtani would still be looking about 7 years at around 30 mil, just as a pitcher I would bet.

However, Ohtani, can hit like an MVP as well.  He has a career slash .267/.354/.532 with an OPS+ of 139.  He only DH's, to help save any arm injuries, but he could play OF most likely.  There are many hitters entering age 29 season FA that we could compare, but none that are just a DH, so you do need to take that into account.  However, just as a bat, I looked at a few recent signings around age 29.  George Springer signed at age 31 season, got 6 years at 25 a year.  He was mixing between CF and RF at this time, and slashed close to Ohtani with less HR overall.  Kris Bryant signed entering age 30 season, and mostly as a bat at this point. He signed 7 years 27 a year.  He slashed close again, with less HR overall to Ohtani.  Corey Seager entering his age 28 season, signed 10 years at 35 a year.  Now he does play SS, but expected to move to 3b at some point, but still considered average defender, so not a true comparison to a bat only kind of guy, but trying to get cross section of age and offense.  Seager slashed with higher average on OBP, but lower slugging and much less HR, hitting less than 100 entering contract year, Ohtani has 127 and still 1 more year until contract year. 

Again, it is impossible to compare truly a value for Ohtani as there is no one to fully compare to.  If we look just at WAR, the average cost per WAR in a FA is around 8.5 to 9 mil.  Lets say 9.  If  team paid for Ohtani full WAR value, they would be paying close to 81 million, as he has got a 9 WAR the last 2 seasons.  Of course he will not get 81 million over a single season.  If we compare WAR, Mike Trout would be the closest, but he signed his contract at age 26 season, so length is not going to be as long, but annual value may be close.  Trout contract is 35 mil average.  It was signed 5 years ago though. 

So what does an Ohtani contract look like?  I would be willing to bet it will be around a 9 year deal, around 40 mil a year, if not 45 a year.  Why do I say that?  I would say because what he does both pitching and hitting, he will continue to put up high WAR numbers as he has, for the next several years.  He has shown even when he has a pitching injury, he can still hit, so less risk of losing him for time even with a pitching injury.  Also, the cost of contracts are going up.  Look at Seager, he got same annual value as Trout, but never had a WAR close to Trout, never having a WAR more than 5.2.  Trout had WAR of average of like 9 a year.  Really, he got hosed on his deal if you look at true WAR.  His value has decreased due to injuries mainly, when healthy Trout still putting up crazy numbers. 

So with no true comparison, what do you think an Ohtani contract will look like?   

He’s really valuable. The risk of injury as a pitcher or a decline as a pitcher makes me want to go shorter with years but still be respectful/competitive - 8 years. 2.66 ERA this year and one of the best average hitting power guys in the game! If he gets hurt pitching it likely slows him offensively. Surgery takes him out of offense as well as off the mound.

That said…..$44million for 8 years feels like a great Team deal and it’s a competitive “big contract” totaling $352 million. Probably signs for more than this. I’m old school with funds and attitude toward me players and I think $352 is not enough for his value.

[Trov]

22 hours ago, Shobae said:

I think with Ohtani the biggest question is how long he will be able to stay a two way player. From what he's said in interviews he doesn't want to give up doing both any time soon as well as saying that he thinks doing both complements the other skill. So it's possible he'd go back to off days (like in 18) if needed to keep up the performance.
That being said would teams prefer a shorter term high AAV deal where it's likely he will be a TWP or will he be looking for a long term deal but then there would be a question what happens if he's unable to be a TWP during the contract. For a short term deal I think he gets at least 50 million AAV so something like 200/4 or 250/5 seems plausible. For a longer term deal perhaps you could structure it like 20 million base salary, then for 60 IP he gets 5 mil and at 120 IP he gets 10 mil. Then for hitter 300 PA gets him 5 and for 502 PA he gets 10. So that means if he's a healthy TWP he gets 50 mil but if he goes to being a position player/pitcher he would get 35 mil, which seems fair to me. I agree that 7-8 years would probably be what you'd be looking at for that kind of a deal so it'd be between 160/8 or 400/8.
The thing to keep in mind with Ohtani though is everyone who's bet against him so far have been made to look like fools. So if he's still doing this at 35 I can't say I would be entirely shocked. He just plays a different game from the rest of the best players in the world.

I am personally a big fan of incentive contracts, but players are not.  They do it, in cases like Buxton, when there are many questions as to long term risk.  I do not see a ton of long term risk in Ohtani, at least not at both sides.  You do make a valid point that if the signing team does not want to continue the two way thing for long term, just as in the Ruth situation, Yankees did not want to do that, despite Ruth being a great pitcher.  However, I think Ohtani does not sign with any team if he thinks they will try to move him out of it.  I also think the resting he got back in 2018, was in part this was all new to MLB, and they did not know how he could play full time DH when not pitching.  The last 2 years he has done that, so no reason to think he will shift back soon.  2018 was his rookie year, no player had ever been full time pitcher and hitter.  

I also think even if he loses some as a starting pitcher, and you want to shift him to pen guy, he could then DH every game, and if needed to go into pen late in game you do that.  Sure would be interesting to see. 

[Shobae]

9 hours ago, Trov said:

I am personally a big fan of incentive contracts, but players are not.  They do it, in cases like Buxton, when there are many questions as to long term risk.  I do not see a ton of long term risk in Ohtani, at least not at both sides.  You do make a valid point that if the signing team does not want to continue the two way thing for long term, just as in the Ruth situation, Yankees did not want to do that, despite Ruth being a great pitcher.  However, I think Ohtani does not sign with any team if he thinks they will try to move him out of it.  I also think the resting he got back in 2018, was in part this was all new to MLB, and they did not know how he could play full time DH when not pitching.  The last 2 years he has done that, so no reason to think he will shift back soon.  2018 was his rookie year, no player had ever been full time pitcher and hitter.  

I also think even if he loses some as a starting pitcher, and you want to shift him to pen guy, he could then DH every game, and if needed to go into pen late in game you do that.  Sure would be interesting to see. 

It's not that a team will move him out of being a TWP, rather that he will be physically unable to keep it up anymore for it to be worth it. I mean every year Ohtani continues is unprecedented but for example many shortstops or catcher eventually move off their position because they aren't able to handle it, I think the same is realistically going to happen to Ohtani at some point. The question is that at 32 or 37? But it'd probably be true that Ohtani wouldn't want to take that kind of a deal.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Can he catch?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Can he catch?

Then he could pitch the baseball to himself at catcher.

[ashbury]

41 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Then he could pitch the baseball to himself at catcher.

/ obligatory

[Craig Arko]

I imagine it would have several pages of legal jargon, some numbers, and a few signatures.

[Trov]

17 hours ago, Shobae said:

It's not that a team will move him out of being a TWP, rather that he will be physically unable to keep it up anymore for it to be worth it. I mean every year Ohtani continues is unprecedented but for example many shortstops or catcher eventually move off their position because they aren't able to handle it, I think the same is realistically going to happen to Ohtani at some point. The question is that at 32 or 37? But it'd probably be true that Ohtani wouldn't want to take that kind of a deal.

I get that CF or SS move off their positions because they age and can no longer play there on defense, but the only reason he could stop doing both pitching and hitting is if he regresses in his ability of one or the other.  I mean they do not move pitchers off the mound to another position as they age because they cannot defend it, they either move them from starter to pen or just say you are done pitching.  Same with hitting, they only stop putting a DH in line up when they stop being productive at it.  

Of course that will happen one day to all players, but I do not think they will ask Ohtani to stop doing either until his ability reduces, not because he cannot defend the position anymore, like a CF or SS.  Those guys, provided they can still hit, will generally get moved to 3b or corner OF because they do not need as much speed and range, which is lost as they age.  

Maybe he gets moved to pen, which could complicate things, as he would start games at DH then be asked to come into game to pitch, giving up the DH, but if you plan to always use him late inning, that would not be too much to deal with.