Handbook Preview: Framing the Catcher Market

[Nick Nelson]

In terms of existential "needs" on the Twins roster, catcher ranks behind only shortstop on the offseason priority list. 

In determining the plan going forward, Minnesota's decision makers need to ask themselves a series of questions, with the answers pointing to various different sets of options. 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

There are several different ways to view the catcher position, and they largely hinge on your opinion of Ryan Jeffers. Has he shown enough to remain entrenched as the 1A fixture behind the plate, or have his injuries and middling performance created the need to find a new catching cornerstone?

In our new chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Framing the Catcher Market," we explore these two scenarios and everything in between, unpacking four questions and where they lead:

Do you view Ryan Jeffers as your catcher of the future, and a viable primary starter in 2023?

If the Twins want to more or less run back the same plan from 2022, while hoping Jeffers can stay healthier and take a step forward, there are a number of low-cost targets available in free agency, including the option to literally run it back with Gary Sánchez or Sandy León.

Do you want to sign the top free agent catcher on the market and make him your new cornerstone behind the plate?

The top name in this year's catching market, without question, is Willson Contreras, a three-time All-Star who gained notoriety with the Cubs. At age 30, coming off a season where he posted a career-high 128 OPS+, Contreras would satisfy the needs for both a primary catcher and a middle-of-the-order bat. (Plus, he could DH a fair amount and keep Jeffers solidly in the mix.)

As I wrote in the Handbook, "If you're looking for a place the Twins could flex their ample spending flexibility if they miss out on the shortstop and pitching markets, this is the obvious answer."

He'll be in high demand and certainly has his downsides, which are also explored in the chapter. So maybe you want to set your gaze slightly lower:

Do you want to gamble on a free agent who could be your #1 primary catcher, but also could blow up entirely?

Mike Zunino, Christian Vázquez, and Omar Narváez are examples of former standout – even star-caliber – catchers who are coming off down years. You'd be buying low on any of them and taking on a considerable amount of risk. But they'll also bring real upside while requiring short-term commitments. 

If none of the free agent options in these three categories are appealing, there's only one option remaining.

You want to trade for a new primary catcher.

Several intriguing options could be in play, with Sean Murphy of the Athletics being the most exciting. The Twins would need to pony up big-time in order to acquire a controllable catcher, but you can certainly make an argument it's justified given how heavily their organizational talent is distributed at other positions. 

If you're a Twins Daily Caretaker, you can download the full chapter and explore these questions more deeply. If you're not subscribed yet, you can sign up as a supporter of our community for as little as $6/month and get access to this plus all other Offseason Handbook content as it drops. 

Which of the four routes laid out above is most appealing to you when it comes to approaching the catcher market?

 

View full article

[stringer bell]

I’m mostly a Jeffers believer. He obviously has some flaws (low BA, throwing), but he seems to be a really good receiver and has potential at the plate. I think the wise and prudent thing to do is to sign a complementary catcher—someone who has platoon advantages against RH pitching with a good rep for throwing out base stealers. In my mind that player is Narváez. 
Both catchers will see plenty of time, even a clear #1 catcher would be behind the plate no more than 2/3 of the time. I don’t know if anyone in the Twins’ system is ready to be a third catcher ready to shuttle back and forth from St. Paul to Minneapolis, but that role also needs to be filled. 

[SF Twins Fan]

Go get Sean Murphy!  Jeffers has only ever shown flashes of being good in the MLB but nothing sustained. 

[DJL44]

The more I look into Vazquez the more I like him. 

[Blyleven2011]

The FO traded away catcher last off season and put all their eggs in 1 basket with jeffers  , not a smart move ...

Again the FO has decimated a position believing they had it covered , again they did not ...

See rosaries replacements in left field , we are still trying to find a permanent replacement in left field the past 2 seasons ... 

Jeffers has not proven to be a number 1 catcher , he can't throw out runners , to many pitches get by as wild pitches or passed balls ( not a good blocker ) and he hasn't proven anything yet as a hitter ...

It takes 3 year to evaluate what a player capabilities will be , this will be his 4th ( 2020 was a SSS ) and last year  to prove he belongs as our primary catcher ...

Is he a leader we want , last year to prove it , Good luck jeffers we need you to really step it up ...

 

[DJL44]

Gary Sanchez was actually pretty good this season. I have no idea what he would expect for a contract. 2 years $18M?

[mikelink45]

Jeffers has disappointed since his rookie season and we need to see something change before he can be considered a starting catcher.  I like Murphy, but the A's do not give their players away. 

[strumdatjag]

If the price is right, signing or trading for a stud catcher makes more sense than signing a stud shortstop or stud starter.  The Twins have an abundance of talent at the other positions.  Patience from the fans will bring a more than competent young shortstop prospect to our big league club.  Maybe there isn’t an ace, but the Twins have enough starting talent to field a decent rotation.   At the very least, the Twins need to sign a legitimate backup at catcher.  

[DJL44]

One thing that has been made clear in the playoffs is having the best catcher in baseball is quite helpful. During the regular season you can't play your catcher every day but you can in the postseason. JT Realmuto has made a difference this October.

[Vanimal46]

I don’t think Falvey and Levine view Jeffers as a primary catcher moving forward. He does well against LH pitching, but there’s not enough pop against RH pitching. 

Pursuing Contreras is plan C (no pun inteaded) for me. If we strike out signing any of the top 4 FA SS or Rodon, then go for it. Ideally, the Twins indeed sign one of the 4 top FA SS, and they dedicate less money to a C option like Omar Narvaez or Roberto Perez. 

[weitz41]

I'm not convinced Jeffers is a 1A so I'd prefer Contreras. But I think that's very unlikely.

So give me someone who can catch 100 games. Gary Sanchez or Christian Vazquez would be good with me.

[beckmt]

IF you are not going to sign Contreras, then Narvaez won't break the bank and would work for me.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Is John Ryan Murphy available?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

If the price is right, signing or trading for a stud catcher makes more sense than signing a stud shortstop or stud starter.  The Twins have an abundance of talent at the other positions.  Patience from the fans will bring a more than competent young shortstop prospect to our big league club.  Maybe there isn’t an ace, but the Twins have enough starting talent to field a decent rotation.   At the very least, the Twins need to sign a legitimate backup at catcher.  

Good points.

[Nick Nelson]

39 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Is John Ryan Murphy available?

I know it's Halloween but there's no need to frighten the children 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO Jeffers in my book was never to be our primary catcher. FA I like both Contreras & Narvaez the best. 

Trade- Murphy? Maybe if you don't mind giving up high prospects (I'd prefer not). TOR has 3 quality catchers, Jansen is most likely available, this my 1st choice.

Plan A - Do a 3 way trade TOR/MIA/MN. Trade away Jeffers to MIA and receive Jansen from TOR. Sign Narvaez as back up.

Plan B- sign Contreras & Jeffers as 2nd

Plan C- sign Narvaez  

Plan D- is much more difficult ,( trade for Jansen) because TOR wants frontline pitching (we don't have).

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The FO traded away catcher last off season and put all their eggs in 1 basket with jeffers  , not a smart move ...

Again the FO has decimated a position believing they had it covered , again they did not ...

See rosaries replacements in left field , we are still trying to find a permanent replacement in left field the past 2 seasons ... 

Jeffers has not proven to be a number 1 catcher , he can't throw out runners , to many pitches get by as wild pitches or passed balls ( not a good blocker ) and he hasn't proven anything yet as a hitter ...

It takes 3 year to evaluate what a player capabilities will be , this will be his 4th ( 2020 was a SSS ) and last year  to prove he belongs as our primary catcher ...

Is he a leader we want , last year to prove it , Good luck jeffers we need you to really step it up ...

 

Your interpretation of what happened ignores the facts.  Sanchez was better than Garver and he was available / more durable.  Where Rosario is concerned he was literally one of the very worst corner outfielders in the entire league.  The stats show very clearly that the various people that replaced Rosario were all better than him.  Your version of the truth follows none of the facts. 

[RpR]

Plan A - Bye, bye Jeffers.

[Mike Sixel]

There just aren't that many good catchers in the league......I'd spend resources elsewhere for sure. It is very unlikely they can be much better than any other team at catcher....but there are great players at other positions they can get/develop/sign....

[Stew]

There is one more route. Find a catcher who is either a trade or free agent who would be a better backup than Leon or Hamilton. And get someone then for 3 to 5 million. That would save more money for a more bold move. However I'm in favor of getting Wilson and making jeffers a backup for the time being. Besides catchers have quite a few injuries.

[Kevin Urdahl]

I'd go for Contreras and Rodon this off season.

Skip the expensive mega-year contract at SS, go for internal or cheap short-term option at SS and wait for Lewis/Martin/Lee. Don't block their paths. Money better spend elsewhere, where we don't have promising prospects.

 

[weitz41]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The FO traded away catcher last off season and put all their eggs in 1 basket with jeffers  , not a smart move ...

Again the FO has decimated a position believing they had it covered , again they did not ...

 

Not that I completely disagree but Garver and Rorveldt played less games then Jeffers last season

[jmlease1]

6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The FO traded away catcher last off season and put all their eggs in 1 basket with jeffers  , not a smart move ...

Again the FO has decimated a position believing they had it covered , again they did not ...

See rosaries replacements in left field , we are still trying to find a permanent replacement in left field the past 2 seasons ... 

Jeffers has not proven to be a number 1 catcher , he can't throw out runners , to many pitches get by as wild pitches or passed balls ( not a good blocker ) and he hasn't proven anything yet as a hitter ...

It takes 3 year to evaluate what a player capabilities will be , this will be his 4th ( 2020 was a SSS ) and last year  to prove he belongs as our primary catcher ...

Is he a leader we want , last year to prove it , Good luck jeffers we need you to really step it up ...

 

Jeffers, even with an injury, caught more games in MLB last season than Garver & Rortvedt combined. Plus, we traded off two catchers who could stay healthy and got one back in Sanchez who also produced more value in MLB than both Garver & Rortvedt combined, so...I think this one was actually a pretty smart move by the twins front office. If they had left things in place the way they were, we still would have been in trouble at catcher, since Garver wasn't healthy and Rortvedt wasn't healthy. 

Enough with the Rosario nonsense. He was awful in 2022, and awful for 2/3 of 2021. We got more value out of Trevor Larnach than Rosario has produced since leaving MN even with the injuries (which, BTW, Eddie has had enough of on his own). Nick Gordon wasn't just a better LF this past season than Rosario, he was substantially better. The Twins front office absolutely made the correct decision there, even with all of the injuries that wrecked our outfield. I still let Eddie move on (with thanks for the adventures) every single time. I would have done it even knowing that our top 5 OF were going get hurt.

In terms of Wild Pitches getting by, Jeffers did fairly well and the twins as a whole were 11th in MLB. they were worse on Passed Balls, but the difference between where the twins were and league average was exactly 4 passed balls. for the season. So he seems to have done fine in blocking the plate. He's not great a throwing out baserunners, and may have regressed a little there, but the running game is also less impactful than it ever has been in baseball.

Jeffers has been coming under a lot of fire on this board, and he does need a partner behind the plate so we're not relying on him quite as much (mostly because expecting any catcher to handle 140 games or so behind the plate seems like folly these days), but he was better than anything Chicago or Cleveland threw out there.

 

[DocBauer]

Narvaez at $6M is my #1 choice to work with Jeffers. Barndhart is my #2. Both have good reputations as backstops and can hit a little and display some pop/power. Both are LH batters. Both are coming off down seasons and should be good players at good prices.

I'm more worried about a quality RH OF, at least 1 BP arm, and figuring out the SS situation right now.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Kevin Urdahl said:

I'd go for Contreras and Rodon this off season.

Skip the expensive mega-year contract at SS, go for internal or cheap short-term option at SS and wait for Lewis/Martin/Lee. Don't block their paths. Money better spend elsewhere, where we don't have promising prospects.

 

Yes, and if they stink, wait for Larry, Moe and Curly.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Jeffers, even with an injury, caught more games in MLB last season than Garver & Rortvedt combined. Plus, we traded off two catchers who could stay healthy and got one back in Sanchez who also produced more value in MLB than both Garver & Rortvedt combined, so...I think this one was actually a pretty smart move by the twins front office. If they had left things in place the way they were, we still would have been in trouble at catcher, since Garver wasn't healthy and Rortvedt wasn't healthy. 

Enough with the Rosario nonsense. He was awful in 2022, and awful for 2/3 of 2021. We got more value out of Trevor Larnach than Rosario has produced since leaving MN even with the injuries (which, BTW, Eddie has had enough of on his own). Nick Gordon wasn't just a better LF this past season than Rosario, he was substantially better. The Twins front office absolutely made the correct decision there, even with all of the injuries that wrecked our outfield. I still let Eddie move on (with thanks for the adventures) every single time. I would have done it even knowing that our top 5 OF were going get hurt.

In terms of Wild Pitches getting by, Jeffers did fairly well and the twins as a whole were 11th in MLB. they were worse on Passed Balls, but the difference between where the twins were and league average was exactly 4 passed balls. for the season. So he seems to have done fine in blocking the plate. He's not great a throwing out baserunners, and may have regressed a little there, but the running game is also less impactful than it ever has been in baseball.

Jeffers has been coming under a lot of fire on this board, and he does need a partner behind the plate so we're not relying on him quite as much (mostly because expecting any catcher to handle 140 games or so behind the plate seems like folly these days), but he was better than anything Chicago or Cleveland threw out there.

 

I just wanted to add a little but to this. 

Jeffers had 55 AB's in the brief 2020 season. I think the numbers he posted, at least, show some of his potential, even with a down 2021 and 2022. With the short 2020 season and missed time this past year with his broken thumb, he's still accumulated only 591 PA and 534 AB. He's got power and while he's been streaky the past 2 years, the power is legitimate and he's shown flashes. He was actually on a nice upward trend when he got hurt last year. He's hit everywhere previously, is still only 25yo, and I think there's some untapped potential just waiting for greater consistency. 

Defensively, I'd like to see either his accuracy or release get better to help control the run game for sure. But his 22% CS in 2021 was only slightly below league average in 2021, though he dipped in 2022. How much of that was him vs the staff not holding runners I don't know. But, while I just can't recall the exact numbers, through the first couple of months last year, before things started to slide, the Twins had something like 16 games where they allowed 3 or fewer runs and he was behind the plate for like a dozen of those.

Throwing out runners, preventing passed balls, are important and I'd like to see improvement there. But he's not awful by any means. But I've always maintained that a catcher's primary function is to call a good game, set a good target, and just "handle" the staff and imbue confidence in/for them. And that's why I think the Twins like him, in addition to some untapped offensive potential.

I get why some look at the offensive numbers the past 2 years, (though I believe his 86OPS+ in 2022 was about league average for catchers), see a few passed balls and lack of a cannon of an arm, and want better. And nothing I'm going to say, or was written above by jmlease1, is going to directly change those opinions at this time. And that's fine. But I also remember a time when Garver was just "never going to be a regular catcher" and that turned out pretty good after a time. I want more, and frankly, I'm expecting more. And I think Jeffers does the important stuff pretty well. And I'm absolutely giving him all of 2023 to show what he can potentially do. 

But I DO want a good partner to pair him with. And I repeat, I think Narvaez, Barnhart as a second choice, are quality, experienced backstops with solid bats, despite each having a down 2022, who fit as great co-catcher options. I think it would be a huge mistake for the FO to sit around and wait for one to fall in their lap and hope. Be aggressive and go get the one you like and MAKE IT HAPPEN. This is too important a position to ignore and then hope.

I think Contreras is an excellent ballplayer. And I would circle back to him quickly if some things don't fall in to place. The Twins need at least 1, if not 2, quality RH bats for the lineup. One should be an OF. The other COULD BE at SS depending on how serious the FO, and ownership, are about a fair and real deal for Correa, etc. But even then, they could jump on Bell as a 1B/DH with Miranda taking over 3B. IMO, Contreras would be great. But why not a quality partner to team with Jeffers to stabilize and improve at catcher and look for RH bats who could/would/should play on a more daily basis to improve the lineup?

[RpR]

Keep Sanchez and if their is no other choice, Jeffers as a back-up.

[Riverbrian]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

One thing that has been made clear in the playoffs is having the best catcher in baseball is quite helpful. During the regular season you can't play your catcher every day but you can in the postseason. JT Realmuto has made a difference this October.

Having the best at any position is supposed to be helpful. 

Realmuto is good. 

In the other dugout... The Astros are finding other positions being helpful. 

[jmlease1]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Narvaez at $6M is my #1 choice to work with Jeffers. Barndhart is my #2. Both have good reputations as backstops and can hit a little and display some pop/power. Both are LH batters. Both are coming off down seasons and should be good players at good prices.

I'm more worried about a quality RH OF, at least 1 BP arm, and figuring out the SS situation right now.

Narvaez is interesting; he's got basically no power in his bat, but he can get you some singles and hop on base enough against righties that he'd be a good fit to play with Jeffers. I think Jeffers is better behind the plate, but Narvaez wouldn't be a detriment back there. He'd be a good fit, especially if the team still thinks there's more to be gotten out of Jeffers.

I'm more nervous about Barnhart, I'm afraid. He really struggled at the plate last year and his platoon splits collapsed on him; seeing how his OPS+ has steadily declined over the last five years, I'd be very concerned that he doesn't have much of a bounce-back left in him at this point. With his defense also on the decline, I'd be worried that he's just aging out as a catcher.

I think finding a RH bat for the OF shouldn't be too hard or too expensive, and I think it's reasonable to get another RH arm for the bullpen (following the "Sonny Gray or better" rule I think that benchmark has to be "Michael Fulmer or better") as insurance for if Alcala isn't healthy or can't stay healthy. But SS has to be the priority.

But I'd try to lock in a catching partner soon, because it's a real need and I don't see ready options in the minors. I like your Narvaez idea!

[Shobae]

I think the play here is to go sign Narvaez and platoon him with Jeffers. I think people are underrating Narvaez here because they're not looking at the numbers. Looking at Baseball Prospectus (who are the industry leaders in catching numbers) defensive catching metrics we can see that Narvaez has really transformed his defense (specifically framing) in the last 3 seasons. It should be noted this is only over a sample of 1852, which while good enough isn't the most reliable. Because Hank Conger was able to help Sanchez have a solid defensive year at the plate after 3 years of disastrous showings, I have faith he will be able to maintain the trend with Narvaez. The biggest problem with Narvaez is that his batting has noticeably declined since his days with the white sox and mariners. Hopefully platooning him and Jeffers would be able to mask both of their woes at offense to give us a slightly above league average catcher position.

As for Contreras I see him as a massive risk personally. While he may have had his best offensive season, that's very normal to happen at 30 because that is many players prime. In 2 years I wouldn't be surprised if he'd massively declined at the plate or if not playing as a backup catcher. I say this because his defense is below average and he only caught 72 games this season. I'd much rather spend that money on a shortstop or pitcher. 

As for Sanchez he's at best a slightly above average defensive catcher, who's many selling point his bat completely disappeared this season. To me he looks like a juiced ball merchant as his entire offensive game was centered around the home run and he struggled this season. So while on paper he's similar to narvaez I'd favor the latter given his handedness and defensive uptrend.