Twins AFL Report (Week 4): Edouard Julien is HIM

[Steve Lein]

After a scorching hot start to the AFL season for Austin Martin, Edouard Julien has taken over the stud mantle, and then some, when it comes to Minnesota Twins prospects playing in the desert. He followed up a big Week 3 with an even better Week 4 and finds himself as the class of AFL hitters heading into Week 5. Another hitter also had a breakout week, and a pitcher had perhaps the best start of his professional career after dealing with tons of adversity to this point.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Edouard Julien)

 

Game Results:
Monday, 10/24 | Scottsdale 12, Glendale 14
Tuesday, 10/125 | Glendale 3, Surprise 9
Wednesday, 10/26 | Peoria 5, Glendale 5
Thursday, 10/27 | Salt River 9, Glendale 6
Friday, 10/28 | Surprise 1, Glendale 11
Saturday, 10/29 | Mesa 10, Glendale 3

The Glendale Desert Dogs continued to play around .500 baseball in Week 4, winning two games and losing three, along with ending their sixth game in another tie. Despite that, the good competition in the AFL has them just two games back of first place in the standings, well within striking distance of an appearance in the title game heading into the season’s penultimate week.

Edouard Julien came on strong in Week 3 of the AFL season, how did he and the rest of the Minnesota Twins prospects perform for the Desert Dogs in Week 4?

IF Austin Martin
Week: 4-for-22, 5 R, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, SB (5 games)
Overall: .349/.447/.460 (.907 OPS)

Martin cooled off a bit in Week 3 after having a blazing start to his Arizona Fall League campaign. Despite that, he played in five of six games, all from atop the lineup for the Desert Dogs, and still managed to score five runs on the week.

He made three starts at shortstop, one in center field, and was also the designated hitter for one game.

His best game of the week came in Monday’s 14-12 win over Scottsdale, in which he was 3-for-5 with a double and scored three runs. In Saturday’s 10-3 loss to Mesa, he chipped in another double, drew a walk, scored two runs, and stole his eighth base of the season.

IF Edouard Julien
Week: 7-for-18, 6 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K, 3 SB (5 games)
Overall: .373/.536/.706 (1.242 OPS)

Julien ended his Week 3 with a monster performance, that he incredibly matched with his first game of Week 4. For the second consecutive game, he launched two home runs, finishing 4-for-5 with four RBI in Monday’s win over the Scorpions. He also added a double and scored three runs.

He reached base at least once in each of his five games on the week, playing second base in four games and serving as the designated hitter in the other. He added another double in Wednesday’s tie with Peoria, and also stole three bases on the week.

Heading into Week 5, Julien leads the AFL in runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. He also ranks Top 3 in home runs, batting average, and walks. 

This is an MVP-level performance from another Twins prospect in the league if he keeps this up after Royce Lewis took home that honor in 2019, and Matt Wallner was worthy of consideration in 2021.

C/1B Alex Isola
Week: 5-for-11, R, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K (3 games)
Overall: .229/.357/.314 (.671 OPS)

Isola had a breakout Week 4 performance, improving his numbers across the board with hits in each of his three games. He played first base in two of those games, and another at catcher to close out his week on Friday.

He especially made his mark in Wednesday’s tie against Peoria, collecting three hits in four at-bats, including two doubles and two RBI. He also drew a walk in each of his appearances on the week to raise his on-base percentage during the AFL season to .357.

RHP Jon Olsen
Week: W, 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 K (1 start)
Overall: 1-1, 5.91 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, .300 BAA, 8 BB, 13 K (10 2/3 IP)

Olson got the start in Friday’s 11-1 win over Surprise and was dominant in his four innings to pick up the win. He faced the minimum number of hitters, allowing just one single that was erased on a strike-’em-out-throw-’em-out double play in the second inning with teammate Alex Isola.

Of his 52 pitches in the game, 35 went for strikes (67%) and the outing was a tremendous boost of confidence for a pitcher who has had the kitchen sink thrown at him since being drafted in 2018.  

LHP Denny Bentley
Week: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 7 BB, 4 K (2 appearances)
Overall: 1-0, 3.48 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, .182 BAA, 14 BB, 8 K (10 2/3 IP)

While Bentley continued to struggle with his command, walking seven hitters in two appearances on the week, he has been able to limit the damage by not allowing any big hits.

In Thursday’s 9-6 loss to Salt River, he pitched the fourth and fifth innings, walking four but also punching out four as he proves to be an enigma for opposing AFL hitters.

RHP Ryan Shreve
Week: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 4 K (2 appearances)
Overall: 1-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .194 BAA, 6 BB, 9 K (11 IP)

Shreve made two perfect appearances on the week, picking up the win with two hitless innings against Scottsdale on Monday, and a one-two-three ninth inning in the tie with Peoria on Wednesday. He struck out two hitters in each outing and has been one of the top performers for the Desert Dogs out of their bullpen thus far.

In the game on Monday, Shreve was summoned after six straight hitters had reached base, culminating with a grand slam that gave Scottsdale a 7-5 lead, but his offense answered with nine runs of their own over the next three innings to put him in line for the win.

RHP Francis Peguero
Week: 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R (2 earned), 1 BB, 3 K (3 appearances)
Overall: 1-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .225 BAA, 7 BB, 8 K (10 IP)

Peguero finally ran into some trouble in Week 4, giving up a run in each of his three outings after not allowing any prior. Of his five runs allowed on the week, just two were earned as his defense let him down in Thursday’s loss to Salt River as a two-out, three-run homer came after a throwing error to start off the inning.

Please feel free to ask questions and discuss the prospects playing in the AFL this week!

In things I find interesting for Major League Baseball’s future, the AFL was experimenting with a “challenge” system for balls and strikes in some games during the season, and the results sound promising and fun for both fans and players! It is similar to the system that was used at times in the Florida State League this season. 

 

 

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[RJA]

I can't wait to see Julien at Target Field this summer.  I know he is not an accomplished defensive player as yet, but my oh my the bat and the eye at the plate are special.  With he, Lee, and (hopefully) Martin on the cusp of making the bigs, along with Larnach, Kirilloff (hopefully healthy), Lewis (hopefully healthy), Miranda, and Wallner, there is the making of a pretty good core, especially when you throw in Buck and Arraez.  Ah, hope spring eternal in the off season :).

[terrydactyls]

What team would be willing to trade a decent, young, controllable pitcher for Polanco and a low level wild card pitcher?

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

What team would be willing to trade a decent, young, controllable pitcher for Polanco and a low level wild card pitcher?

Possibly Seattle, Philadelphia

[mac098]

Seemed to be a pretty good week for ALL of the Twins' minor leaguers that were sent to the AFL. Yes, Martin has cooled off, but that is the nature of baseball. Julien is keeping it hot like he did all summer with the bat. His command of the strike zone has really helped him out. Only swinging at pitches he believes he has a high chance of putting in play. That is a great approach to the game (Now if only we could get some of that approach to leak onto other players in the majors). Isola seemed to finally be able to notice and hit the ball. He seems to have a good eye at the plate, as evidenced by his OBP. Now if he can show his bat to ball skills, I think we have a decent C/1B backup on our hands. 

The pitching has finally seemed to start working. Olsen is finding his stride and proving that he deserves the invite to the AFL and potentially a non-roster invite to ST. Shreve is looking like a guy that is solid in clutch situations or at the very least, can quell the bleeding as it's happening. Maybe he'll earn a non-roster invite this year. Now Bentley, has everyone head scratching. He is "wildly" effective. Clearly he on the game plan of "If I don't know where the ball is going, neither do the batters" philosophy. This can only work for so long. Maybe another winter with the mechanics coach and he can dial it in? Peguero seemed to have an off week compared to the previous 2. He needs to right the ship before anything else. Allowed too many hits, but he kept the walks down to a minimum. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thank you for this good report Steve. Very hope-filled. 

[mikelink45]

I do not know the answer, but I wonder how many of these players will be on the Twins Roster in 2023 (at some point - not necessarily out of ST)?  Julien breaking out reminds me of Miranda the year before.  I hope all the young players are healthy this year and we get a real chance to see who the Twins are.

[jmlease1]

12 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I do not know the answer, but I wonder how many of these players will be on the Twins Roster in 2023 (at some point - not necessarily out of ST)?  Julien breaking out reminds me of Miranda the year before.  I hope all the young players are healthy this year and we get a real chance to see who the Twins are.

It's really hard to know with the pitchers, but I suspect they are unlikely to debut in 2023. I think we will see Martin & Julien in 2023 (Martin solves depth issues at multiple positions and Julien seems poised to hit his way on to the club.

I get they might have Isola playing some 1B in the AFL, but is he can't stick at catcher, then I don't think we ever see him in MLB. He doesn't hit enough to play 1B even if he's actually amazing at it. He's a really interesting prospect to watch next year to see where our catching depth is, though.

Julien is a terrific draft story for the Twins. 18th round pick! You could write off his 2021 if you wanted to as him being a little older for the level, but he crushed it on 2022 at AA as well and was pretty well in line for that level of competition. His understanding of the strike zone is awesome and he's doing a great job of taking his pitch and punishing it. Really looking forward to seeing how he does in AAA and if/how his power production develops. Right now he's an on-base machine who can do some damage, but if he continues to grow and becomes at 25+ HR guy without losing his current levels of contact? that's very exciting.

developing these late round picks into legit MLB players is really important for the franchise. It insures you against a high pick busting, give you more prospect capital to make trades, keeps the prospect pipeline flowing, and keeps the system strong. Julien won't do much to move the needle on prospect system rankings (he's going to get dinged for not being a high pick, for not having "elite tools", for being older and less projectable, etc) but his emergence is part of what made it ok to deal Steer & CES last season.

[Doctor Gast]

It's great that Isola is doing well and hope he's progress at catcher. And Julien is doing so well and being a stud. You can't help but think he's got a shot at MVP. Martin has put up some good #s but he has cooled off some from his blazing start. I'm concerned about him since he got HBP, I think he's hurting and thrown off his game. Do you know anything about that Steve?

Pitchers are doing better than expected and happy about Olson's outing.  Hope it's a turn around for him he deserves it.

[nicksaviking]

Still seems nuts that Julien never got a promotion last year. He was way too good for AA.

[FlyingFinn]

26 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Still seems nuts that Julien never got a promotion last year. He was way too good for AA.

They rarely take AAA players in the AFL. I'm thinking the Twins wanted him here and thus didn't move him to AAA in September.

Isola - I agree with jmlease. He catches so few games in the minors and in the AFL, that I don't even consider him anything more than an emergency catcher. If he's a 1B, his hitting has to be on Julien's level or he's just another good body in the minors, not worthy of getting to MLB.

[ashbury]

I had the distinct pleasure of watching the Thursday and Friday games with @USAFChief, plus I stuck around for the morning game on Saturday.  Here are some observations, going from memory since I didn't maintain my commitment to run a scoresheet for more than about two innings - I'd never earn a living as an advance scout, with too many instances I have to sheepishly mark WW on the scorecard ("wasn't watching").  Maybe Chief will speak up to correct any misinformation I offer here.

It was fantastic to have Martin and Julien play two games each, and especially so when the game they overlapped had them manning the double play combo.  Martin played CF on Thursday and I don't recall him being really tested in that game.  I think there was one play where a throw home would have been an option but he took the arguably smarter play of throwing to second to prevent the batter from taking a free base.  There were two or three base hits that dropped in, where my reaction was "Buxton would have had that"™, and that is partly joke and partly impossibly high standards due to being spoiled.  I'd certainly prefer my center fielder to play within himself rather than dive and miss and give up the four-bagger (*cough* Jake Cave *cough*).  All in all my general impression was that Martin will not be more than "adequate" there in CF, but he was okay.

Julien at second base on Friday likewise didn't really get tested as far as I recall.  I see the box score lists him for what must have been a strike 'em out throw 'em out double play, so good for him to complete that.

Isola.  He played catcher on Friday, and as I just mentioned he did nail a runner going to second.  But he has this annoying habit of usually lobbing the throw back to the pitcher.   Makes me wonder if his arm is less than 100% and he's favoring it unless he has to put something on the throw, while Chief is of the opinion they wouldn't put him out there in that case so it must be the Yips and is just a mental thing.  Since the AFL is all about instruction, I can't believe the coaches are just watching him do that, on throw after throw (even with men on base), this late in the fall season.  As it is, I consider Isola to be Not A Prospect at catcher, unless and until this is corrected - in the majors I imagine other teams exploiting the flaw every game or so.  And if he's not going to be a catcher in the majors, the bar is set pretty high for how good his bat needs to become.

Bentley.  As the story above tells, he had a pretty rowdy couple of innings on Thursday.  Live arms that lack command are kind of a commodity in the minors and at age 24 he's not exactly young so he needs to harness this pretty soon.

Peguero.  I also didn't see a lot to like about the guy we acquired along with Sonny Gray.  Sorry, but I'll be surprised to see him reach the majors, and nothing in his two appearances made me think different than that assessment.

Olsen.  Wow, I did not know the back story on him.  I'll be rooting for him, for sure, just on a personal level, and the game he had on Friday was pretty nice.  Still, I didn't see something about him that stood out as being a future major leaguer, although that afternoon Chief and I were more interested in finding shade on the first base side of the ballpark and so our vantage point wasn't really the best for looking at pitch movement, as he's no fireballer.  Good luck to Jon and if he reaches the majors then I'll remember that "I saw him when".

Oh, and that Saturday game.  I was hoping for some difficult chances at second or short, to get a feel for what to expect from our possible DP combo of the future.  Well, again there weren't any challenging plays that I noticed, to see how their range is or how their throws are when the going gets tough.  However, there was a "room service double play ball" hit to Martin, who fielded it cleanly and ... threw wide to second.  Julien got credit for the putout of the runner, which I thought might have been a gift from the umpire but give Julien credit for staying with it.  But my impression of Martin in that game was, again, he's stretched to be anything more than "adequate" at shortstop.  He's going to have to hit like he's done in the AFL, if he's going to be an asset while not playing an up the middle position.

Finally, Julien disappointed the Friday home crowd, because In-N-Out Burger has a promotion where occasionally a player is named before the game that if he hits a double then everyone in the crowd gets a coupon for a free burger (the legendary Double Double, I don't know).  Edouard hit a single that game but that wasn't good enough so Chief and I departed burgerless.  In the game on Saturday our DP combo led off the game so they accounted for the team's first run when Martin doubled and Julien immediately drove him in.  In N Out picked the wrong Twin and the wrong game, those jerks.

[Squirrel]

16 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I had the distinct pleasure of watching the Thursday and Friday games with @USAFChief, plus I stuck around for the morning game on Saturday.  Here are some observations, going from memory since I didn't maintain my commitment to run a scoresheet for more than about two innings - I'd never earn a living as an advance scout, with too many instances I have to sheepishly mark WW on the scorecard ("wasn't watching").  Maybe Chief will speak up to correct any misinformation I offer here.

It was fantastic to have Martin and Julien play two games each, and especially so when the game they overlapped had them manning the double play combo.  Martin played CF on Thursday and I don't recall him being really tested in that game.  I think there was one play where a throw home would have been an option but he took the arguably smarter play of throwing to second to prevent the batter from taking a free base.  There were two or three base hits that dropped in, where my reaction was "Buxton would have had that"™, and that is partly joke and partly impossibly high standards due to being spoiled.  I'd certainly prefer my center fielder to play within himself rather than dive and miss and give up the four-bagger (*cough* Jake Cave *cough*).  All in all my general impression was that Martin will not be more than "adequate" there in CF, but he was okay.

Julien at second base on Friday likewise didn't really get tested as far as I recall.  I see the box score lists him for what must have been a strike 'em out throw 'em out double play, so good for him to complete that.

Isola.  He played catcher on Friday, and as I just mentioned he did nail a runner going to second.  But he has this annoying habit of usually lobbing the throw back to the pitcher.   Makes me wonder if his arm is less than 100% and he's favoring it unless he has to put something on the throw, while Chief is of the opinion they wouldn't put him out there in that case so it must be the Yips and is just a mental thing.  Since the AFL is all about instruction, I can't believe the coaches are just watching him do that, on throw after throw (even with men on base), this late in the fall season.  As it is, I consider Isola to be Not A Prospect at catcher, unless and until this is corrected - in the majors I imagine other teams exploiting the flaw every game or so.  And if he's not going to be a catcher in the majors, the bar is set pretty high for how good his bat needs to become.

Bentley.  As the story above tells, he had a pretty rowdy couple of innings on Thursday.  Live arms that lack command are kind of a commodity in the minors and at age 24 he's not exactly young so he needs to harness this pretty soon.

Peguero.  I also didn't see a lot to like about the guy we acquired along with Sonny Gray.  Sorry, but I'll be surprised to see him reach the majors, and nothing in his two appearances made me think different than that assessment.

Olsen.  Wow, I did not know the back story on him.  I'll be rooting for him, for sure, just on a personal level, and the game he had on Friday was pretty nice.  Still, I didn't see something about him that stood out as being a future major leaguer, although that afternoon Chief and I were more interested in finding shade on the first base side of the ballpark and so our vantage point wasn't really the best for looking at pitch movement, as he's no fireballer.  Good luck to Jon and if he reaches the majors then I'll remember that "I saw him when".

Oh, and that Saturday game.  I was hoping for some difficult chances at second or short, to get a feel for what to expect from our possible DP combo of the future.  Well, again there weren't any challenging plays that I noticed, to see how their range is or how their throws are when the going gets tough.  However, there was a "room service double play ball" hit to Martin, who fielded it cleanly and ... threw wide to second.  Julien got credit for the putout of the runner, which I thought might have been a gift from the umpire but give Julien credit for staying with it.  But my impression of Martin in that game was, again, he's stretched to be anything more than "adequate" at shortstop.  He's going to have to hit like he's done in the AFL, if he's going to be an asset while not playing an up the middle position.

Finally, Julien disappointed the home crowd, because In N Out Burger has a promotion where occasionally a player is named before the game that if he hits a double then everyone in the crowd gets a coupon for a free burger (the legendary Double Double, I don't know).  Edouard hit a single that game but that wasn't good enough so Chief and I departed burgerless.  In the game on Saturday our DP combo led off the game so they accounted for the team's first run when Martin doubled and Julien immediately drove him in.  In N Out picked the wrong Twin and the wrong game, those jerks.

Nice write up ... thanks for giving us the 'in person' report. To where do you and Chief want the bail money sent?

[Rosterman]

It's gonna mean that the Twins will have to add him to the 40-man. He had a chance of not being added, because he was still at A-ball. But now, showing he can compete against higher level intense pitching......

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

To where do you and Chief want the bail money sent?

Turns out throwing water balloons is a capital crime in Maricopa County, wasting water dontchaknow, so just send a memorial donation to our widows.

[USAFChief]

I don't know if the "Isola lobbing popups back to the pitcher thing" is disqualifying, but it's ANNOYING AS HELL!!

 

Who was the catcher (white sox?) that used to triple clutch and then soft toss back to the pitcher every time? I CANT WATCH THAT!

 

Anywho, Martin is fast and Julien looks very hitterish. 

 

The pitchers....we had to send SOMEbody, I guess.

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't know if the "Isola lobbing popups back to the pitcher thing" is disqualifying, but it's ANNOYING AS HELL!!

 

Who was the catcher (white sox?) that used to triple clutch and then soft toss back to the pitcher every time? I CANT WATCH THAT!

 

Anywho, Martin is fast and Julien looks very hitterish. 

 

The pitchers....we had to send SOMEbody, I guess.

It certainly sounds concerning if isola has that as some kind of tic! Sometimes throwing quirks like that...grow. Twins probably need to be looking at investing draft capital in the catcher spot.

Is Martin Royce Lewis fast? Byron Buxton fast? I was definitely pleased with his number of steals last season and his efficiency, and I'm assuming his speed is one of the reasons the team isn't worried about his ability to slide into the OF if an infield spot doesn't work out. Speed guys can be awfully fun, and the triple is still the most consistently exciting play in baseball (seems like most inside the park HRs are the result of a catastrophically bad play in the OF, which is less fun). Would love to see Martin blazing around the bases for triples!