Joe Ryan Has Another Level

[Cody Pirkl]

Joe Ryan had as good of a season as we could have reasonably asked for, but it somehow feels like he left some meat on the bones. Is it possible that one of the Twins most consistent pitchers has another step they can take in 2023?

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Rays were likely willing to part with Joe Ryan because of his pitch mix concerns, as he dominated every stop in the minors by using a unique fastball almost exclusively. The pitch was deceptive and unhittable, as his low arm slot made it hard for hitters to anticipate where the ball is going to end up. No fastball is good enough to sustainably dominate the majors, however, and Ryan is set to work on diversifying his pitch mix in 2022.

He threw his fastball 60% of the time in 2022, down about 5% from 2021 as he began mixing sliders 20% of the time while also throwing an occasional changeup or curveball. His final line of a 3.55 ERA across 147 innings points to this pitch mix change being a massive success, although there is some context to consider.

Ryan had a few months that prevented him from putting up some eye-popping numbers in his rookie season. In June, he posted a 5.74 ERA, followed by a 5.06 mark in July and a 4.13 in August. At the time the explanation was the difficulties he was having returning from COVID, which likely did carry some weight. Still, almost every bit of failure Ryan had in 2022 stemmed from his offspeed offerings.

Ryan’s slider allowed a .245/.330/.497 line, his changeup .277/.492/.355, and his curveball .286/.333/.393. For comparison sake, his fastball allowed a .145/.263/.300 mark. It seemed like every home run he allowed was on an offspeed pitch. After plenty of scouting reports saying Ryan was a reliever because of his pitch mix, the floor that many worried about showed itself for several months. Even with his solid final numbers, the questions that were raised about Joe Ryan being able to navigate top-tier lineups remain. Moving forward there’s reason to be optimistic.

The biggest issue of Ryan’s game is clearly the success of his offspeed pitches, and the final numbers on them certainly validate those concerns. Ryan got incredibly unlucky according to his expected numbers for the entire season. His slider accounted for 40% of the home runs he gave up despite throwing it just 40% of the time. The pitch allowed a .245 BA but had a .221 expected batting average. While getting clubbed to the tune of a .497 SLG, the pitch had an expected SLG of just .354, an even better mark than his highly touted fastball. This is true of both his changeup and curve as well, as all of his secondaries' actual numbers were on the wrong side of the expected stats.

This is no call to reward Ryan for what Statcast says his pitches “should” be. There are a lot of factors that go into expected numbers. It is odd however that in a season where the ball was assumedly changed to negatively impact offense that Ryan would underperform so consistently. There’s no telling how these pitches will look in 2023, but it's safe to assume that Ryan and the Twins will continue to refine these offspeed pitches, and the deep numbers say they have a surprisingly strong base to build off of. His slider in particular appears to have a chance at being his best pitch based on the expected stats and the near 30% whiff rate.

Things often went wrong when Joe Ryan turned to his secondary pitches in 2022. It confirmed many of the predictions that were made about the fastball first right-hander and likely still leaves a few concerned about his future as a starter. Still, Ryan put up dominant stretches despite these struggles, and the final numbers say that his pitch mix isn’t nearly the disaster some thought. In 2023, Ryan’s goal will surely be to establish one more reliable offering to pair with his fastball. Doing so opens a whole new ceiling for a pitcher that already helped anchor the rotation in 2022. The best part is, Joe Ryan is closer than we think.

 

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[Karbo]

This was his 1st full year in majors. There are plenty of pitchers around the league that showed huge improvements after year 1. IMO that is what will happen with Ryan. 1 year is just the start.

[jmlease1]

I think how he locates the offspeed pitches this year will be the key for Ryan. He did a pretty good job of keeping the slider diving at and out of the edge of the zone much of the time, but you can see on his heat map at Baseball Savant that he also had too many where he hung it up high in the zone, and I suspect that's where he got hammered with it. If he can locate those pitches more consistently (the curve was pretty scattershot, which probably helped him avoid getting launched on it, but also added to his walks since player could just lay off it) I think he'll have more success and probably bring his expected values closer to actual.

I'm a Joe Ryan fan. He works fast and pitches unafraid, and I love the different look his fastball presents.

[The Mad King]

I'm still high on this kid. Clearly his middle season numbers coinsided with his covid and return. It lingers. A good changeup could do him wonders, try to get away from the curve he likes to keep hanging. 

[Blyleven2011]

Don't know what to say about his projected numbers but by the eye test ,  I do like his confidence on the mound  ...

Give him the ball and he will give you everything he's got on that particular day  ...

[mikelink45]

Ryan is not the pitcher I worry about. Give him the ball and work on our other rookies. 

[Trov]

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like everything about Joe Ryan.  I do have concerns that eventually batters will figure out his fastball and with the lack of high velocity it may start to get hit.  Hence, I fully agree that he needs to focus on his off speed pitches.  I would love to see him incorporate a change up as with the FB and off speed pitches it could be devastating for hitters especially if used less frequently.

[Doctor Gast]

Joe Ryan is a very good pitcher he has a fantastic 4-seam FB and he's working on his slider that he credits Archer for getting it started. I think stamina is the key, after your rookie season you are building stamina. It's easy to miss your location or hang a pitch if you're tired. I think covid did effect his stamina so having covid & his rookie season behind him, he has a great foundation to work from. So I expect more quality innings from him in '23.  

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

Agreed.  The thing that they try to fix leads to more problems then before the fix.  Leave him alone.

[weitz41]

It's a completely different era of baseball. BUT Joe Ryans age 26 stats are similar to Brad Radke's in a few ways. Innings are not even close but that's due to the 2 times through the order metrics. Quite a few of the others are similar. FIP, WHIP, BB/9 H/9. Maybe we're lucky enough to see another Brad Radke. Off speed pitches will likely improve over time. Berrios got shelled his rookie season. He was vastly improved over the next few seasons. Ryan has been better so far. Not every stud pitcher throws 99mph. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Trov said:

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

He does throw the fastball "more and more," it's his only plus pitch, he throws it 60% of the time, and that usage isn't a secret. Pushing Ryan to develop at least one other respectable off speed pitch isn't about fixing what isn't broken, or forcing him away from using his FB; it's about trying to raise his ceiling from fringy back end guy to solid middle of the rotation guy. Better teams were quick to make the adjustment this year; Ryan's numbers against playoff teams were awful. 

[weitz41]

6 hours ago, Trov said:

To me, Joe Ryan is the fix it before it is broken kind of approach.  He has dominated on his fastball his whole career.  All the 'experts' say, he will not dominate with his fastball at the MLB level so he needs to get better secondary pitches.  So he works on his secondary pitches, only to be dominated by his secondary pitches, and dominate with his fastball.  Hmmm, something seems odd here.  We say he cannot dominate with his fastball in the MLB level, despite he has done exactly that.  It is his secondary pitches that have not done well.  

I get that for most guys, you need to mix it up because if not they will tee off the fastball and lay off anything else, but it seems to me the approach against Joe has been the other way round for now. I hate the plan of predict failure so fix it before it happens, only to have it happen when you try to fix it, then point to I told you so.  

His fastball is not overpowering, but hard to barrel up, so why not throw it more and more, until teams start to sit on it, then mix in the off speed?  Hell, I think first time through rotation, he should almost throw it every pitch, unless teams start hitting it hard.  Then if they start to attack the first fastball and actually hit it hard, then look to throw some off-speed out of the zone, not waste pitches per se, but make sure not in a good place to hit. 

Pitching is all about keeping guys off balance for most part, but if you have a pitch they cannot hit well, why not throw it mainly until the hitters adjust?  Why adjust to their expected adjustments?  For example, for years Buxton was known to chase sliders off the plate.  He would get one after another, and more and more on 2 strikes.  He would chase over and over, but then some times a pitcher would get cute and throw him a fastball, only to see it get crushed.  He never showed he would lay off the pitch, nor that he would square it up, unless it got hung, so why throw anything else?  Until the hitter shows they will actually hit a pitch, why make it easy for them? 

Let Joe throw the fastball, then worry about him when teams actually hit it.  I remember when pitchers started pitching up the zone, and everyone said they need to not do that or they will get crushed, now many experts point out that pitching up in the zone is very effective it is the top of the zone.  

I am not saying he does not need to work on the off-speed pitches, mainly for that time there is the adjustment.  But until that time comes, stop telling him he needs to throw more off-speed to be effective, when that appears to be a main reason he has not been. 

The Lance Lynn approach to pitching. I agree. Throw it till they hit it then add in your slider/curveball/change up.

[Monkeypaws]

Joe Ryan did Joe Ryan stuff as a rookie.

More innings pitched than hits allowed: his ratio was ridiculous in the minors, such as 2019 as he ascended from low A to AA. 123 IP vs 73 hits allowed is crazy. Well last year with the Twins he put up 147 IP to 115 hits. For a rookie?

More strikeouts that innings pitched: he did this routinely in the minors, all about the same ratio, but again 2019, 123 IP vs 183 Ks. His 2022 numbers were 147 IP and 151 K, not bad for a rookie. All that while going through COVID.

BBs to Ks: Ryan doesn't have a problem with control. He had a career high full season total of 47 walks last season, with a career high 147 IP, less than a third of his Ks. His entire number of walks over 3 minor leagues seasons was 53, as opposed to 326 ks, in 225 innings.

Next year will be key: will he get scouted out and suffer the sophomore slump, or keep doing Joe Ryan stuff? I like the latter.

[roger]

16 hours ago, weitz41 said:

It's a completely different era of baseball. BUT Joe Ryans age 26 stats are similar to Brad Radke's in a few ways. Innings are not even close but that's due to the 2 times through the order metrics. Quite a few of the others are similar. FIP, WHIP, BB/9 H/9. Maybe we're lucky enough to see another Brad Radke. Off speed pitches will likely improve over time. Berrios got shelled his rookie season. He was vastly improved over the next few seasons. Ryan has been better so far. Not every stud pitcher throws 99mph. 

Great comparison.  Could the Twins be so fortunate to get 10+ years of Radke type success from Ryan?

[Seansy]

Joe Ryan has already made the Cruz deal look amazing but I agree he can unlock another level with some further development of his offspeed pitches. Given how good his FB is with the deception it has I think his floor is probably a low # 3 starter but if he unlocks more he could easily be a very good #2 pitcher.