Offensive overload of Ace Articles and discussion

[Riverbrian]

I understand the Value of a so-called "Ace" and I understand why these articles are written. However, Let's compare the OPS AND ERA Post All-Star Break while the wheels were coming off.  

Post All Star Break - Looking at 16 Hitters and 16 Pitchers -- The ones who we went to battle with during a pennant chase.  

Above Average Hitters 5 - Above Average Pitchers 9 

Average Hitters 2 - Average Pitchers 2

Below Average Hitters 9 - Below Average Pitchers 5 

 

Post All-Star Break this is the Twins OPS production at the plate. (49 AB's to Qualify)

Above 2022 League Average: 

Buxton - .866 (Often Injured)

Correa - .866 (Gone)

Urshela - .829

Gordon - .780

Miranda - .760

2022 League Average:

Arraez - .715

Wallner - .709

Below 2022 League Average:

Polanco - .657

Cave - .644 (Gone)

Sanchez - .620 (Gone)

Celestino - .582

Garlick - .522

Leon - .502 

Contreras - .482

Jeffers - .477

Kepler - .468

Palacios - .382 (Gone)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post All-Star Break on the Mound: 

We had 9 who were above 2022 League Average ERA. (Over 21 IP to Qualify):

Above 2022 League Average:

Duran - 1.05

Thielbar - 1.50

Ober - 2.01

Gray - 2:38

Moran - 3.27

Pagan - 3.56 (Yeah I know - But his post all-star break numbers are his numbers)

Jax - 3.62

Fulmer - 3.70 (Gone)

Varland - 3.81

2022 League Average:

Ryan - 4.14

Lopez - 4.37

Below 2022 League Average:

Aaron Sanchez - 4.71 (Gone)

Dylan Bundy - 5.13 (Most Likely Gone)

Chris Archer - 6.63 (Gone)

Josh Winder - 6.65

Trevor Megill - 6.84

 

With all of these Ace Articles and Subsequent Ace Discussions - Are we focused on the right section of the roster? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EGFTShaw]

as a former member of your 'Hood, (EGF), I think some of the misconception around an Ace is permeated into this discussions.
 

• First pitching was not the only problem for the Twins
• Hitting took a nosedive after the break as well.
• I think people feel hitting will come around (overlook the Sano data point please), vs any of the pitchers stepping it up to be an Ace.

Personally, I like most of our team and the construction.

I agree with about 60-70% AGleeman's post about our needs.

SS - even if we lose him, which the Odds and the Force may insure, I would like to see a highly competitive off to C4.  After that I would like TT only because he is the coolest slider in baseball today.

SP #1.  I want someone who when he pitches can shut down the other team.  I want them to go for someone here.  Given what I seem to see in MLB you need depth which i feel the Twins have.  But at the moment there is not one guy who you can call on to Stop the other team whether it is for 5 innings or 8 innings.  I think Ryan has the mentality only time will tell.  Very nervous about Rodon but I think we have the depth to deal with it assuming we don't hemorrhage injuries like we did last year.  Someone mentioned a trade with the BrewCrew but I don't know enough about the guys mentioned.

RHRP - we need some more depth.

RHOF - it would be nice to mix a RH OF with the all the lefties.  

Catcher - dear god I wish Jeffers could hit.  

but yes, it was not only the pitching the sunk after the Break.

 

[Squirrel]

I think I've made myself clear in every ace discussion ... I have a very narrow opinion of what an ace is. We aren't going to pay for one and developing one is a crap shoot, imo. So, work toward a quality starting rotation of 2's and 3's, and get off this 'we need an ace' mindset. (Berríos, imo, is a good #2 starting pitcher. While he may have been the best pitcher on the team, and earned him the moniker 'staff ace', he is NOT an ace pitcher by my definition.) It's not that I think we are focussed on the wrong part of the team, I think we are making the discussion impossibly and irrevocably muddied with everyone's various opinions of what is an ace, so the discussion is lost before it even begins. We need quality starters, and then we need a GREAT bp. And yes, we need our hitting to come through. We have proven hitters, but we have very poor consistency, so maybe we don't have proven hitters? In my humblest of opinions, you cannot focus on any one part. You have to focus on them all and find the parts that make the whole work. I personally think we need to move away from Kepler ... but he needs to be replaced with someone who has RECENT established consistency ... not a once-upon-a-time consistent hitter/fielder. I think we need another starter of the Rodon level. I think we need another relief pitcher or two who can be relied upon. Hitting ... I'd throw a ton of money at Rowson to get him back. There is something in the process that isn't working, not in the talent or ability, imo. I think we have some very good pieces, but I think we need a few more ... in balance. I'm not sure I subscribe to this point, but most here think ... good pitching beats good hitting ... great pitching beats about everything. Which is why I think people are pitching focussed.

[Cris E]

Your point is valid, but you should be providing a little more context. Flag them if they have less than a full year of experience, and then show how far last year deviated from their career baseline.  There were some like MIranda, Ober and Ryan that were revelations, others like Winder, Contreras and Garlic that were just young, and others like Correa, Grey and Leon just doing their thing for good or ill.  But several important members of your Below guys were injured last year and it trashed their production. Polanco, Jeffers and Kepler in particular (plus a bunch of guys that are missing completely like Lewis, AK and Larnach) were broken and tried playing through things that (in retrospect) should have been treated. 

We do need to improve our offense (and glovework) but we should expect better from at least three players at important positions next spring.  Replacing Gary Sanchez is important.  Retaining or replacing Correa is important. But 2B and 3B and at least one OF corner should be better. We need two or three fixes, not five. 

[Vanimal46]

30 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

but most here think ... good pitching beats good hitting ... great pitching beats about everything. Which is why I think people are pitching focussed.

Shameless plug… we had a debate about that! I still think a strong offense is more important in the grand scheme of things. 

[Squirrel]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Shameless plug… we had a debate about that! I still think a strong offense is more important in the grand scheme of things. 

Yeah ... I think my implication was ... it wasn't necessarily my subscription ... but why I think the discussions become so pitching (ace) focussed because many do subscribe to it. I still think a balance is needed and fully laid out what I think we needed? My mind is a million different places these days, so probably not clear in what I was trying to say.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

With all of these Ace Articles and Subsequent Ace Discussions - Are we focused on the right section of the roster? 

Thanks for pointing this out. I agree that there’s been a lot of talk recently about aces and spending $30 million a year for Rodon. 

Frankly, the offense never held up their end of the bargain in 2022. The Twins caught fire early on in the season by winning 1 run games and the pitching staff over performing. If we didn’t get that early season surge, this would have been a 90+ loss team. 

It was expected the pitching staff would cool off, and the offense to heat up in the summer months. That never happened. The pitching staff, minus the infamous Pagan blow ups, held their own and prevented an even worse season from happening.

IMO something has stunk with the long term core position players for a few years now. There were too many times to count over the season when an inning got off to a good start, runners in scoring position, only to strand them. If we lose a top of the order hitter in Correa, and replace him with a bottom of the order hitter like Iglesias, Mondesi, etc. it’s going to be disastrous. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

35 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Your point is valid, but you should be providing a little more context. Flag them if they have less than a full year of experience, and then show how far last year deviated from their career baseline.  There were some like MIranda, Ober and Ryan that were revelations, others like Winder, Contreras and Garlic that were just young, and others like Correa, Grey and Leon just doing their thing for good or ill.  But several important members of your Below guys were injured last year and it trashed their production. Polanco, Jeffers and Kepler in particular (plus a bunch of guys that are missing completely like Lewis, AK and Larnach) were broken and tried playing through things that (in retrospect) should have been treated. 

We do need to improve our offense (and glovework) but we should expect better from at least three players at important positions next spring.  Replacing Gary Sanchez is important.  Retaining or replacing Correa is important. But 2B and 3B and at least one OF corner should be better. We need two or three fixes, not five. 

Kyle Garlick is 30, Mark Contreras is 27, Josh Winder is 26.

those three are not “young”. 
 

Carlos Correa is 28.

Garlick and Contreras should not be major league players, Winder needs to take a step up, or move to the bullpen quick, or he’ll be in the same boat.

 

2b, 3b, SS, C and Corner outfield is 5. Corner OF, I’d rely on Wallner to step up over a free agent, but I would not complain at all if they went external at all. Plus really need to improve 4th OF too, someone right handed who can field CF and knows which end of the bat is the handle.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

I think I've made myself clear in every ace discussion ... I have a very narrow opinion of what an ace is. We aren't going to pay for one and developing one is a crap shoot, imo. So, work toward a quality starting rotation of 2's and 3's, and get off this 'we need an ace' mindset. (Berríos, imo, is a good #2 starting pitcher. While he may have been the best pitcher on the team, and earned him the moniker 'staff ace', he is NOT an ace pitcher by my definition.) It's not that I think we are focussed on the wrong part of the team, I think we are making the discussion impossibly and irrevocably muddied with everyone's various opinions of what is an ace, so the discussion is lost before it even begins. We need quality starters, and then we need a GREAT bp. And yes, we need our hitting to come through. We have proven hitters, but we have very poor consistency, so maybe we don't have proven hitters? In my humblest of opinions, you cannot focus on any one part. You have to focus on them all and find the parts that make the whole work. I personally think we need to move away from Kepler ... but he needs to be replaced with someone who has RECENT established consistency ... not a once-upon-a-time consistent hitter/fielder. I think we need another starter of the Rodon level. I think we need another relief pitcher or two who can be relied upon. Hitting ... I'd throw a ton of money at Rowson to get him back. There is something in the process that isn't working, not in the talent or ability, imo. I think we have some very good pieces, but I think we need a few more ... in balance. I'm not sure I subscribe to this point, but most here think ... good pitching beats good hitting ... great pitching beats about everything. Which is why I think people are pitching focussed.

Great point about trying to get Rowson back. Make Rowson an offer he can't refuse. I also agree about the need for getting the best bullpen in the major leagues. We have a start with Duran. We need two others like him and we will be the best in the majors. Except for Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Ober, SWR, Winder, and Varland, put the remaining pitchers into  relief situations  in the majors and in the minors and see who can do 1-2 innings of shut down, no walks, pitching consistently.  Put them in the majors as relief pitchers. We need a smart, pitcher-orientated,  catcher , who can throw out base-stealers (look at Houston),. A good catcher makes the pitchers better. Find a team orientated, good fielding, level headed, vaccinated SS, either from within or from without the organization. Trade Kep for young flame throwing prospects. Sign Rodon. 

[weitz41]

An Ace is a luxury item that few of us have seen. Which probably plays a part in it. Most of us want a Range Rover SUV but we will be driving a Ford or Chevy on our way home from work. Spending on bats is this FO's MO so I expect that's where they're focused. 

[Squirrel]

2 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

An Ace is a luxury item that few of us have seen. Which probably plays a part in it. Most of us want a Range Rover SUV but we will be driving a Ford or Chevy on our way home from work. Spending on bats is this FO's MO so I expect that's where they're focused. 

I don't have a problem with that with one caveat ... they still absolutely have to have a high end BP. Will the pieces we have stay healthy and be what we need? I'd like to get one or two more. And I'd like Correa. And a hitter in RF. And a different hitting coach. That's not too much to ask for, is it?

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah ... I think my implication was ... it wasn't necessarily my subscription ... but why I think the discussions become so pitching (ace) focussed because many do subscribe to it. I still think a balance is needed and fully laid out what I think we needed? My mind is a million different places these days, so probably not clear in what I was trying to say.

Anything out of Frostbite Falls is a bonus.

Hey Rocky, watch me pull an Ace out of my hat.

Uh oh, time to get a new hat.

[TwinsDr2021]

27 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

vaccinated SS

Is that the new legal PED?

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I think I've made myself clear in every ace discussion ... I have a very narrow opinion of what an ace is. We aren't going to pay for one and developing one is a crap shoot, imo. So, work toward a quality starting rotation of 2's and 3's, and get off this 'we need an ace' mindset. (Berríos, imo, is a good #2 starting pitcher. While he may have been the best pitcher on the team, and earned him the moniker 'staff ace', he is NOT an ace pitcher by my definition.) It's not that I think we are focussed on the wrong part of the team, I think we are making the discussion impossibly and irrevocably muddied with everyone's various opinions of what is an ace, so the discussion is lost before it even begins. We need quality starters, and then we need a GREAT bp. And yes, we need our hitting to come through. We have proven hitters, but we have very poor consistency, so maybe we don't have proven hitters? In my humblest of opinions, you cannot focus on any one part. You have to focus on them all and find the parts that make the whole work. I personally think we need to move away from Kepler ... but he needs to be replaced with someone who has RECENT established consistency ... not a once-upon-a-time consistent hitter/fielder. I think we need another starter of the Rodon level. I think we need another relief pitcher or two who can be relied upon. Hitting ... I'd throw a ton of money at Rowson to get him back. There is something in the process that isn't working, not in the talent or ability, imo. I think we have some very good pieces, but I think we need a few more ... in balance. I'm not sure I subscribe to this point, but most here think ... good pitching beats good hitting ... great pitching beats about everything. Which is why I think people are pitching focussed.

I agree... Teams should be improved from stem to stern.

Ace, #2, #3, #4, #5 designations for starters seems to be popular with the kids these days but I just don't do them. I hear people say Ryan is a 4... I don't know what that means. I think he can help us win. 4 makes it sound like there are 3 levels better. 

If I were to use the same type of designations with our hitters. We have way too many 5's I guess. We could use some Aces at that plate.  ?

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

as a former member of your 'Hood, (EGF), I think some of the misconception around an Ace is permeated into this discussions.
 

• First pitching was not the only problem for the Twins
• Hitting took a nosedive after the break as well.
• I think people feel hitting will come around (overlook the Sano data point please), vs any of the pitchers stepping it up to be an Ace.

Personally, I like most of our team and the construction.

I agree with about 60-70% AGleeman's post about our needs.

SS - even if we lose him, which the Odds and the Force may insure, I would like to see a highly competitive off to C4.  After that I would like TT only because he is the coolest slider in baseball today.

SP #1.  I want someone who when he pitches can shut down the other team.  I want them to go for someone here.  Given what I seem to see in MLB you need depth which i feel the Twins have.  But at the moment there is not one guy who you can call on to Stop the other team whether it is for 5 innings or 8 innings.  I think Ryan has the mentality only time will tell.  Very nervous about Rodon but I think we have the depth to deal with it assuming we don't hemorrhage injuries like we did last year.  Someone mentioned a trade with the BrewCrew but I don't know enough about the guys mentioned.

RHRP - we need some more depth.

RHOF - it would be nice to mix a RH OF with the all the lefties.  

Catcher - dear god I wish Jeffers could hit.  

but yes, it was not only the pitching the sunk after the Break.

 

I've already decided that I'm going to be optimistic again next year. I think the Twins are headed in the right direction. Kind of like the Green Wave Hockey Team. 

I just think if we are prioritizing under the assumption that we can't get everything. Offense should be the top priority. Correa is gone... Buxton is often hurt. Arraez, Urshela, Gordon are the ones who performed when the chips were down. Everyone else didn't. Asking Larnach and Kirilloff to overcome what we didn't have in the last half is too big or at least too risky of an ask of them.  

[Squirrel]

24 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree... Teams should be improved from stem to stern.

Ace, #2, #3, #4, #5 designations for starters seems to be popular with the kids these days but I just don't do them. I hear people say Ryan is a 4... I don't know what that means. I think he can help us win. 4 makes it sound like there are 3 levels better. 

If I were to use the same type of designations with our hitters. We have way too many 5's I guess. We could use some Aces at that plate.  ?

There is no other way for me to describe the quality of starter I want. It’s not so much a designation of order but the level of performance. I equated Berríos as 2, so there’s what I’m looking for. A couple of that quality and the rest a notch below. I don’t care where they pitch in the rotation or for how many innings, that’s the quality I want. If that’s too complicated for you to understand, school is available to anyone of any age. And I don’t subscribe to ‘just have 12-13 good pitchers and pitch then wherever, however, whenever’ as you do. I think that complete lack of rigidity is just as bad.

And now your own response to a part of post has driven this to become a pitcher discussion, what you are offended by

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

Your point is valid, but you should be providing a little more context. Flag them if they have less than a full year of experience, and then show how far last year deviated from their career baseline.  There were some like MIranda, Ober and Ryan that were revelations, others like Winder, Contreras and Garlic that were just young, and others like Correa, Grey and Leon just doing their thing for good or ill.  But several important members of your Below guys were injured last year and it trashed their production. Polanco, Jeffers and Kepler in particular (plus a bunch of guys that are missing completely like Lewis, AK and Larnach) were broken and tried playing through things that (in retrospect) should have been treated. 

We do need to improve our offense (and glovework) but we should expect better from at least three players at important positions next spring.  Replacing Gary Sanchez is important.  Retaining or replacing Correa is important. But 2B and 3B and at least one OF corner should be better. We need two or three fixes, not five. 

Good Post

I never know if poor performance is injury related or not. 

I just have these opinions that if injury is indeed causing poor performance they shouldn't be on the field. 

Someone hitting .200 because they are hurt is the same performance as the guy who hits .200 when healthy... both need to be played less.. if at all.   

I have hope that Polanco will rebound back to what we hope Polanco can be. I even have hope that Kepler can rise from the 2 years of ashes but if they don't we are back to where we were in August and September and we better add some hitting in case they don't.  

 

[DocBauer]

I think this is a very salient OP. Every team in baseball wants to have an ACE, Cy Young candidate to lead their staff. But there's only a few of them that really qualify as such. Period. And they aren't on the shelf waiting for a team to come along and drop them in their cart. And how often are they traded? And if you look at history, most every ACE you can name was just a good pitcher at first and then developed in to ACE caliber. So the "we need to go get an ACE" argument just falls on deaf ears to me. 

But you DO need quality pitchers. And you need depth. Right now, healthy, the Twins staff looks pretty good and offers some young depth as well. Unfortunately, there are enough question marks that....and here I go saying it again...I'd be looking to add someone as good as Gray or Mahle, if I can't find someone better. I want to begin 2023 with too much pitching, and move guys to the pen or down to AAA with an option, rather than have too little. And personally, I think there's a handful of guys out there that could be solid additions in FA that would only cost $.

I totally agree we need a much better pen as well. But when you look at the current candidates, as opposed to the beginning of 2022, it's very different. Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, a healthy Alcala, a young Moran looking pretty good, long and middle relief options available, things don't look too bad there. I'd be in full favor of bringing back Fulmer, who's been really solid since transitioning to the pen. But I also really like brining Hand "home" to add a strong veteran LH to the pen. 

But the gist of Brian's article is pretty spot on: the offense, for a variety of reasons, simply didn't come through often enough in 2022. Injuries had a lot to do with that, of course. Polanco was one of the Twins top performers the 1st half. Kepler just isn't as bad as he was the second half when hobbled. Larnach and AK have a ton of potential, but also need to be on the field and able to play. Etc, etc.

The Twins were one of the very best teams in all of MLB at getting a runner in from 3B, but near the bottom in advancing or scoring a runner from 2B. Where is the disconnect there? I don't know if the issue is horrible luck, a poor approach by the players or what. And you can't just clean house and turn over the entire team. 

Better health will help. But better roster construction will help. Sanchez's bat keeps regressing? Well, he's gone, so add one of the solid veterans out there to team with Jeffers. Garlick just isn't an every day option when pressed in to extended play? Then get a better RH hitting OF who is and can be. I don't think the player side of the roster is bad at all. There's a lot of solid players there. But different pieces make up a different puzzle. And I think they need do need to add and remove a couple of pieces for a different combination. 

 

[weitz41]

51 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I don't have a problem with that with one caveat ... they still absolutely have to have a high end BP. Will the pieces we have stay healthy and be what we need? I'd like to get one or two more. And I'd like Correa. And a hitter in RF. And a different hitting coach. That's not too much to ask for, is it?

For a team which I seen a lot of people say doesn't have many holes it sure seems like they have a lot to do to be better than the 22 version. Yes, please bring back Correa. I think it may be time to move on from Kepler. I wish the FO would invest in the pen especially with the two times through the order plan for starters. Hitting coach, it was his 1st season in the position and I'm not ready to move on just yet. He could have played a big part in Miranda, Gordon and possibly Arreaz's good seasons.

Do I think the FO will invest in the BP..No probably not, which is frustrating. Resign Correa..I expect it will come down to years and they are aways light on years. I doubt they'll go past 6-7 years and Correas going to want 8-10. Kepler getting moved IDK. Maybe they can find an expensive BP arm that they can trade him for. Josh Hader would work (kidding)

[Riverbrian]

43 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

There is no bother way for me to describe the quality of starter I want. It’s not so much a designation of order but the level of performance. I equated Berríos as 2, so there’s what I’m looking for. A couple of that quality and the rest a notch below. I don’t care where they pitch in the rotation or for how many innings, that’s the quality I want. If that’s too complicated for you to understand, school is available to anyone of any age. And I don’t subscribe to ‘just have 12-13 good pitchers and pitch then wherever, however, whenever’ as you do. 

First off, there a lot of people using Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5 to describe starters so the comment wasn't directed at your use of the system so sorry if I gave offense of some sort.

I'm saying, that I don't do it. It's not too complicated for me to understand. You say Berrios is a 2. You think he is better than a 3 4 and 5 but not quite a 1... the concept isn't hard.

Berrios had a 5.32 ERA in 2022. Jose's best years were in the 3.50 ERA range. Joe Ryan has been called a 4 by many (not necessarily you) with a 3.55 ERA in 2022. This is why I don't use it. It's subjective and not clear on if it's reporting or projecting.

Others can use it if they want but I'm not going to concern myself with the "Is Rodon an Ace" discussion. I thought he was one of the top starters in the league last year. If others don't feel he is an ace. OK. Whatever that means.  

As for the discussion I started awhile back about your BETTER PITCHERS THROWING MORE INNINGS for discussion purposes. Not many are going to subscribe to that, Even, I don't think the execution is possible but I am trying to break the shackles of that 5 man rotation that requires below average pitching to keep chugging along. 

If the alternative is 5 plus ERA innings eaters tossing the bulk of your innings just to hold a rotation intact. I'd rather they don't.    

 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Thanks for pointing this out. I agree that there’s been a lot of talk recently about aces and spending $30 million a year for Rodon. 

Frankly, the offense never held up their end of the bargain in 2022. The Twins caught fire early on in the season by winning 1 run games and the pitching staff over performing. If we didn’t get that early season surge, this would have been a 90+ loss team. 

It was expected the pitching staff would cool off, and the offense to heat up in the summer months. That never happened. The pitching staff, minus the infamous Pagan blow ups, held their own and prevented an even worse season from happening.

IMO something has stunk with the long term core position players for a few years now. There were too many times to count over the season when an inning got off to a good start, runners in scoring position, only to strand them. If we lose a top of the order hitter in Correa, and replace him with a bottom of the order hitter like Iglesias, Mondesi, etc. it’s going to be disastrous. 

I agree.

With all of the injuries... the only place the depth held was on the mound. Yeah we took some hits but those young arms gave our offense a chance to win games. 5-9 in the order was well below average when we needed them to be at least average... if not better than average. Now our best bat after the all-star break is gone and we get article after article about needing an ACE. 

I agree with you.   

[mk]

Agree the Twins offense also let them down in 2022. Losing 84 games is a team effort. I hope most of that was due to injury. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 minutes ago, mk said:

Agree the Twins offense also let them down in 2022. Losing 84 games is a team effort. I hope most of that was due to injury. 

 

hope is not a solution or strategy.

[roger]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I think I've made myself clear in every ace discussion ... I have a very narrow opinion of what an ace is. We aren't going to pay for one and developing one is a crap shoot, imo. So, work toward a quality starting rotation of 2's and 3's, and get off this 'we need an ace' mindset. (Berríos, imo, is a good #2 starting pitcher. While he may have been the best pitcher on the team, and earned him the moniker 'staff ace', he is NOT an ace pitcher by my definition.) It's not that I think we are focussed on the wrong part of the team, I think we are making the discussion impossibly and irrevocably muddied with everyone's various opinions of what is an ace, so the discussion is lost before it even begins. We need quality starters, and then we need a GREAT bp. And yes, we need our hitting to come through. We have proven hitters, but we have very poor consistency, so maybe we don't have proven hitters? In my humblest of opinions, you cannot focus on any one part. You have to focus on them all and find the parts that make the whole work. I personally think we need to move away from Kepler ... but he needs to be replaced with someone who has RECENT established consistency ... not a once-upon-a-time consistent hitter/fielder. I think we need another starter of the Rodon level. I think we need another relief pitcher or two who can be relied upon. Hitting ... I'd throw a ton of money at Rowson to get him back. There is something in the process that isn't working, not in the talent or ability, imo. I think we have some very good pieces, but I think we need a few more ... in balance. I'm not sure I subscribe to this point, but most here think ... good pitching beats good hitting ... great pitching beats about everything. Which is why I think people are pitching focussed.

This comment is written so bloody well I want to go out and celebrate.  Thanks Squirrel.

 

[roger]

Yes, much of this is about the hitters.  I for one am of the opinion that we need a better catcher and a shortstop to hold the spot until Lewis or Lee takes over come August.  I expect AK, Polo, Larnach and Kepler will be the hitters we expect in 2023.

I also believe that the Twins already have that pitcher everyone is talking about on their roster.  He may not pitch 200 innings and won't be considered an ACE, but I believe that Maeda will be our top starter in 2023.  There has always been something about the guys professionalism that puts him a step ahead of everyone else.  I look for him to be back where he was in 2020 when he did get some Cy Young votes, didn't he?

[Doctor Gast]

Why are we only looking at 2nd half #s? and why are we looking at ERA? What good is ERA if many aren't giving us enough innings? A lot of our pitchers were injured most of the season. What I dislike is people spinning stats to fit their scenerio with out looking at under-lying conditions.

One reason our offense was bad was that Buxton, Polanco & Arraez (our main offense) were hurt all the 2nd half. All this could have been resolved if they had remove them the line up from the beginning & get them to 100% not keep playing them well below 100%, keep agrivating the injury until they can't any longer play. If we want accurate Polanco stats look at Polo's healthy '21 2nd half #s.

What could have compounded that was that there was no motivation. Why? I am assuming maybe all games we were winning that the BP lost. It's hard to get motivated when that happened so often. Because of the bad short relief the rotation really was over stretched. Resulting in the injuries & ineffeciency.

I agree that we can get by with what have if they change their "no long relief" policy but where we stand right now we can hopefully expect some respectable innings from Ryan, Gray & Mahle. But the rest I don't expect much, so we have to look outside for an "ace" to give  us a lot of quality innings to compete.

It's easy to blame the offense, blame the pitching,  blame the medical trainer. blame the injuries. Yes the injuries were a big set back but I blame most of the injuries & poor performance on poor management. We had a great team (if you don't count the catching & early BP), again I don't blame them. We really do need catching, that and SS should be our priority.

[TwinsDr2021]

54 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

BETTER PITCHERS THROWING MORE INNINGS for discussion purposes. Not many are going to subscribe to that,

Everybody subscribes to this, I can't imagine anybody saying hey let the lesser pitchers pitch more.

The issue with this is reality. Some guys are as successful as they are because they are limited to one inning some two. Look at Jax (and maybe Sands) when asked to do less they actually could do more. Some guys are really good pitching 4 or 5 innings full effort but have nothing left for the 6th and on. Some guys are building arm strength because of injuries or what not.

You may not realize it but the Twins pretty much did this year what you are wanting. They felt Archer was better than anybody else they had for 4 innings (they tried for 5 and he didn't have it) they though Bundy was the best guy they had for 5 innings,

With that said, I agree a right handed outfielder should be number 1 priority.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

First off, there a lot of people using Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5 to describe starters so the comment wasn't directed at your use of the system so sorry if I gave offense of some sort.

I'm saying, that I don't do it. It's not too complicated for me to understand. You say Berrios is a 2. You think he is better than a 3 4 and 5 but not quite a 1... the concept isn't hard.

Berrios had a 5.32 ERA in 2022. Jose's best years were in the 3.50 ERA range. Joe Ryan has been called a 4 by many (not necessarily you) with a 3.55 ERA in 2022. This is why I don't use it. It's subjective and not clear on if it's reporting or projecting.

Others can use it if they want but I'm not going to concern myself with the "Is Rodon an Ace" discussion. I thought he was one of the top starters in the league last year. If others don't feel he is an ace. OK. Whatever that means.  

As for the discussion I started awhile back about your BETTER PITCHERS THROWING MORE INNINGS for discussion purposes. Not many are going to subscribe to that, Even, I don't think the execution is possible but I am trying to break the shackles of that 5 man rotation that requires below average pitching to keep chugging along. 

If the alternative is 5 plus ERA innings eaters tossing the bulk of your innings just to hold a rotation intact. I'd rather they don't.    

 

I get that, and don't necessarily disagree. So, skip the numbers, but still use Berríos as a benchmark ... career Berríos, not last season Berríos. If we can get one better, great, if we can get more the same, great, if we can a few just a notch below, good. But I don't want to sink too far. I want more pitchers rostered who can get us to 6 innings, not 4 or 5. If I have to settle for one or two pitchers that give a quality 4 or 5 innings, okay ... I don't want to get greedy. But then we need to have a BP that is quite outstanding, imo. That's the point. Ace? To me that describes a very specific pitcher, of which there aren't many, and no one the Twins will pay for. Can we identify the potential to be that or almost as good for a season or two? Let's hope. But ...

Anyway, back to your post, and it's a rather simplistic point I'm making ... we need to focus on all parts and get them to work together. But I think there is a philosophy among many here, and why I believe pitching and ace talk, tend to get a lot of attention ... good pitching beats good hitting. And it's not necessarily something I subscribe to ... I think a team needs a balance of parts (which should never be confused with a mediocrity of parts). Focussing on getting great pitching while neglecting hitting won't get us far, imo; and focussing on great hitting, neglecting pitching won't get us far, either. The focus can't be on any singular part.

[Doctor Gast]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Everybody subscribes to this, I can't imagine anybody saying hey let the lesser pitchers pitch more.

The issue with this is reality. Some guys are as successful as they are because they are limited to one inning some two. Look at Jax (and maybe Sands) when asked to do less they actually could do more. Some guys are really good pitching 4 or 5 innings full effort but have nothing left for the 6th and on. Some guys are building arm strength because of injuries or what not.

You may not realize it but the Twins pretty much did this year what you are wanting. They felt Archer was better than anybody else they had for 4 innings (they tried for 5 and he didn't have it) they though Bundy was the best guy they had for 5 innings,

With that said, I agree a right handed outfielder should be number 1 priority.

Well said TwinsDr2021, although I agree that a RH  hitting OF would be nice, I wouldn't rate it priority.

[chpettit19]

Interesting discussion topic, thanks for starting it.

To me, even as an analytics nerd, it's really simple to know where your weakness is (scoring vs preventing runs): how do you compare against the league as a whole when it comes to how many runs you score and how many runs you allow. Simple and easy. Runs scored/game and runs allowed/game.

Year- Runs per game/League Avg/% better or worse - runs allowed per game/league avg/% better or worse
2016- 4.46/4.47/<1% worse - 5.49/4.47/23% worse
2017- 5.03/4.65/8% better - 4.86/4.64/5% worse
2018- 4.55/4.45/2% better - 4.78/4.45/3% worse
2019- 5.80/4.83/20% better - 4.65/4.83/4% better
2020- 4.48/4.64/3% worse - 3.58/4.64/23% better
2021- 4.50/4.53/1% worse - 5.15/4.53/14% worse
2022- 4.30/4.28/<1% better - 4.22/4.28/1% better

Make what you will of that info. Things that stand out to me are that while the offense was obviously great in 2019, the pitching wasn't brutal by any means. 2020 would be a fun pitching line to have more often. Did Rowson have some sort of special connection with Twins players? His years (17-19) were the best they had, but his Marlins teams have been brutally bad offensively. 2021 was such a disaster. 2022 was basically a league average team on both sides of the ball with the pitching actually being slightly better than the offense. But both sides of the ball clearly need to improve.