The Deal and Non-Deal From 2018 That Influenced the 2022 World Series

[Matt Braun]

Do you remember where you were on July 27th, 2018? The Twins played the Boston Red Sox in a 4-3 extra innings loss—future former old friend Tyler Thornburg netted the win—and the Twins fanbase was up in arms when Matt Belisle pitched the deciding 10th frame, not Ryan Pressly. Belisle was in a rapid, soon-to-be career-ending decline, while Pressly—always frustrating but still nasty—represented the Twins’ best shot at continuing the game. Mookie Betts crushed a solo homer to win. How could Paul Molitor bungle his bullpen moves so severely?

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

As it turns out, there are reasons behind decisions like these, as Ryan Pressly soon became a Houston Astro. Shortly after the game, news broke that the well-tattooed righty would re-locate to his home state, signaling the first shoe to drop in an eventful trade deadline for the Twins, one that reverberates into the 2022 World Series.

Pressly’s path following the deal is well-known by Twins fans; Houston sprinkled their magic pitching dust over him, eliminating the blow-up outings that plagued his early career while transforming him into one of the more consistent relievers in baseball. Two All-Star games called his name and, without a transition period, Pressly became the final boss in an always-talented Astro bullpen, closing important games with ease as his fastball knocked batters to the ground and his curveball brought them to their knees. So it goes. The Twins are still counting on Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala—the return package in the deal—to embrace their potential.

Since 2019, only the Dodgers, Rays, and Guardians have a lower bullpen ERA than Houston’s 3.66 mark; Liam Hendriks is the sole reliever to provide more fWAR than Pressly over that span. 

The 2018 Twins also shied away from trading away another important player: Kyle Gibson remained on the team following a significant courting process from multiple interested franchises. The Twins front office has never feared holding on to a player if the deal isn’t right—there’s a reason why José De León stayed with the Dodgers during the Great Brian Dozier trade talks of 2016—so Gibson’s staticity wasn’t entirely shocking. That choice seems significant now.

Gibson’s path to his current team, the Phillies, is less straightforward; the former first round pick pitched his way out of Minnesota after a brutal sickness-cursed 2019 season before signing a pact with the Texas Rangers. Amid a surprise All-Star campaign in 2021, Texas sent Gibson to Philadelphia in a hearty trade for three players, including top prospect Spencer Howard. 

The Phillies, so blessed with excellent starting pitching, now utilize Gibson as a tertiary arm, only calling his name once this postseason for a four-out appearance against the Padres in Game 2 of the NLCS. He’s far from a game-changing presence, but Gibson gobbled up nearly 170 innings in the regular season, and one can easily imagine that his veteran status has positively influenced the Phillies clubhouse.

What if the Twins trade him at the deadline? Perhaps he nestles in with his new squad long-term, eliminating his future with the Phillies. Maybe the team whiffs on a separate starter, thinning their ranks enough to hold them back from playoff contention in 2022.

Although, maybe that doesn’t happen, and baseball continues to be weird and often illogical. 

These two strings connect to a broad baseball web spun by influential deals and non-deals. The Astros will always be a powerhouse, but precisely how strong would they be without an ace, veteran reliever like Pressly? The Phillies walked a tightrope to make it this far; was Gibson enough of a force to push them into contention? We can only apply conjecture to these questions, but, unquestionably, the Twins' 2018 trade deadline subtlety influenced the upcoming World Series matchup.

View full article

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting take, Matt. Phillies snucked into the wild card game through the play-off change & any thing that Gibson had done was a deciding factor to help them there. Also the extra games PHL had to play to get to the World Series, shows real roster depth. 

HOU is there because they are good at cheating. 

[mikelink45]

I like the Houston team - need to say it since there is still so much hate.  Since the Twins were willing to take on Correa the talk of cheating should be in the past - I have great respect for Dusty Baker and hope he gets the series.  But if he does Pressly will play a very significant role.  Interesting that two top closers in the article are both former Twins.  

The most impactful trade is not in the article - it was the trade of raging cancer called Donaldson who let the Yankees down, created his normal level of frustration by behavior and mouth and not enough with his bat to make it acceptable. Character does matter.

Gibson did not pitch well enough to really be a contributor - his 5.05 ERA takes him back to his Twins days and we are fine to be rid of him.  

[Vanimal46]

Pressly would have looked good in a Twins uniform for the last 4 seasons. It’s still one of my least favorite trades in Falvey and Levine’s tenure. 

[Vanimal46]

47 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

it was the trade of raging cancer called Donaldson who let the Yankees down, created his normal level of frustration by behavior and mouth and not enough with his bat to make it acceptable. Character does matter.

Yes. My previous post was negative about the Pressly deal. The Donaldson trade is one of my favorites in the Falvey/Levine tenure. I commend them for getting out of the last 2 years (and option in 2024) of the contract without eating any of the money. And getting 2 decent contributors on short term contracts. 

[Blyleven2011]

I never understood why the twins  signed Donaldson after the bomba squad of 2019  ...

We needed quality pitching for 2020 and each year we go to the playoffs  it is proven  ...

Yes was glad to see donalson traded and urshela played 3rd base adequately  but produced better at the plate in 2022 than donalson  , I like urshela  and if they tender him a contract that woukd be all right  ...

Every team needs quality pitching  but FO seems to always trade our best pitchers in trades and not replaced with major league caliber arms , prospects take time to develop in trades and Acala if healthy may be a contributor  from the pressley trade ...

Yes pressley has been going strong for Houston  and they found talent and tapped into that talent and made him better , something I have been questioning of our coaches , do the Twins coaches have the ability with a talented player to tap into that talent and make them better  ....

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I never understood why the twins  signed Donaldson after the bomba squad of 2019  ...

We needed quality pitching for 2020 and each year we go to the playoffs  it is proven  ...

 I have been questioning of our coaches , do the Twins coaches have the ability with a talented player to tap into that talent and make them better  ....

Sano at third base probably had a big influence; what hurt was letting C.J. Cron and Schoop go. Schoop on who saved most runs above average , at Baseball Ref. was number one this year, and Cron , this year, made any Twins First Baseman look inadequate.

Without a top rank infield, the best pitching will just be frustrating .