Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco

[LA VIkes Fan]

2 hours ago, roger said:

No one, Cody, other than the guys running the front office know whether or not Polo is a trade candidate.  Yes, you state many reasons why it could make sense.  The fact is, this young man has been a huge part of much of the Twins recent success and I for one would be heartbroken should they trade him.  And no, I don't believe they need to trade Polo, or anyone, for another top pitcher as I am comfortable with their current staff.

Another reason why he will probably stay is they just may view him as their starting shortstop early next season until Lewis or Lee is ready to take the position.  Of the players currently on their roster, he is the most likely candidate for that role. 

This take makes sense to me. I think Polanco is the Plan B at SS if we can't re-sign Correa. If we did trade him, I think Gordon is the replacement if his hitting last year wasn't a flash in the pan. Arraez is not a great replacement given his defensive and injury issues and both Martin and Julien are at least a year away. Plus, Polanco is one of our 3-4 best hitters so there's a real offensive downgrade with replacing him. I doubt if we trade him. 

There is one scenario where I do think trading Polanco makes sense - if we re-sign Correa and want to free up money to also add a quality starting pitcher, everyday RH hitting OF, LH hitting catcher, or back end bullpen piece. We need a SS, higher end starter, LH hitting catcher, and a closer (if we put Duran in the rotation). I could see them re-signing Correa, trading Polanco to free up $$ in a package him with someone like Larnach and a prospect for a good starter and good BP guy, RH OF or catcher,  and using the $$ to fill one of the other holes. Gordon starts out at 2B with some Arraez there also, and Lewis becomes the 2B at mid-season. Easier transition for him. This is probably more than the FO is willing to consider but does offer a way to fill some holes. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

I would submit that his trade value is the highest it might be right now.  He turns 30 next July, and the older he gets the less valuable he is.  And he has 3 years of control now, and the less control as time goes by also decreases his value in a trade.  Coming off an injury is never ideal, but at 29 (currently), a team friendly contract, and 3 years of team control pretty much maximizes his trade value; the longer we wait that only decreases.  Waiting for him to be healthy and bring his stats back to normal might make him look better to the eye, but teams today look at the above when considering giving something up in trade.  Or so I am told every day on TD.    

I understand my friend. But this is the lowest it has ever been. Yes it could be lower next year depending what kind of year he might have & the # of years on his contract but it could be a little higher. But this isn't the main reason my main reason is my 2nd reason.

2nd reason is we have no one capable to replace him right now. The 2 you mention are terrible, the shift helped to hide some of their warts. But now with the shift banned and possible lost of Correa, our INF will become a laughing stock & extreme embarassment to the team & fans, not to mention a deep hole we'll be in, Until they throw untested prospects in there and it'll be '21 all over again.

Last year would have been a better year because he had a great year in '21 and his trade value was close to what he was worth. And we had Royce Lewis on the cusp to enter MLB and we had Correa to take up any gap.

Reading Twins News today, I get the feeling that Correa is gone. I don't care about any hype that people spin, Arraez & Gordon are terrible at 2B. Any combo of them & throw in unready prospects will be disasterous like it was in '21.

I get the feeling that management hasn't learned anything from the last couple of years. And this season will be another wasted season.

[MTV]

Don’t trade Polanco. He’s been one of the best players in the upper half of the Twin’s lineup and usually plays most of the season out. On top of that, Gordon doesn’t look the part for second, Arraez is better suited for first and Martin and Julien won’t be ready until the second half. Even in the depth options Polanco brings power and consistency that the rest won’t bring. Hold onto him, at least until Lewis/Lee/Martin are ready.

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I concur on quite a bit.  I have lobbied to keep Urshella for a while now, and still want to.  And, while I don't think Arraez would be a 140 game a year 2nd baseman, he could spell 1st and DH often enough to keep him from that.  Or maybe give Gordon a shot with Arraez as his back up.  But right now I see a roster with a lot of outfielders, and a lot of infielders who play 2nd and 3rd and fill in at 1st.  But we didn't have a true 1st baseman much of last year, and we aren't going to bring back Sano, so do we keep the converts there and hope for the best, or find a first baseman?  And we surely need another catcher (one that can throw out runners?), we have to sign a SS of some length and ability, and I see a need for a couple of stud BP guys.  And that is assuming we are going to go with the starters we have now.  If we buy those needs with all that cash everyone thinks we are going to have (I am not holding my breath on that), then aren't we just clogging our 40 man even more?  We have a lot of assets and a lot of holes.  Back in the day ( i know how much everyone hates it when I say that), we would trade one to fill the other.  Right now the proven major leaguer that has a fairly decent contract and 3 years of control is an asset that, coupled with a prospect or two, might bring something to fill one of those needs.  No one wants to pull that trigger, but it just might be the best bullet we have.  

I think Miranda and Arraez make a perfectly fine 1B, and AK is better there than the OF, so I wouldn't be looking to make any sort of splash at 1B. So I'm just seeing catcher, SS, and BP guys (I'd also like a Rodon type signing, but not holding my breath). That's 4 guys. And I think they have easily 4 spots on the 40 they can clear. I don't create a hole at 2B (and that's what I think would happen if you trade Polo) to fill another hole. I just don't see trading Jorge being a ticket to upgrading the team overall so I wouldn't want to trade one of their few established above average players.

[Rosterman]

Yes. Probably close to the msot valuable trade chip for a team looking for an economic second baeman.

None of us want Gordon or Arraez as the fulltime second baseman, but there could be hopes that names like Lewis, Lee, Martin and Julien could fill the bill at second and short by mid-season.

Would we have to add a prospect name (who?) to tantalize for a frontline starter? Probably, yes.

[Johnny Ringo]

All players should be trade candidates always. It is simply a matter of what you can get for them. In Polanco's case, given his injury history, that won't be much. Some teams (not ours of course) care about that sort of thing. Perhaps he would fetch a couple of good(ish) prospects, a middle reliever; something like that.  Polanco as the 2023 shortstop should be plan Z. 

Kepler should be moved if for nothing more than salary relief to sign a viable shortstop or (heaven forbid) a top of the rotation starter.  We have more corner outfielders than Bonnes has favorite brew pubs. Middle infield continues to be a staffing challenge for the Twins.

If someone is in love with Arraez's batting average, I would move him too. I love the guy but he is essentially a singles hitting DH. That does not age well.  

The Twins need to shake the tree or next year will be grim. You lose a 6 WAR shortstop and a bottom feeding schedule and suddenly the world is a cruel place. Though listening to Gleeman's season post mortem with Falvey and it seems like more of the same this off-season. It's discouraging. 

But all players should be trade candidates always. Forever and ever. Amen. 

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Arraez & Gordon are terrible at 2B

Polanco was terrible at 2B in 2022. UZR/150 of -9.2 which was the second worst (to Gavin Lux). Second worst in Outs Above Average (-9) to Nolan Gorman. Below average in every defensive rating system and one of the worst fielding 2B in baseball in some of them. Carlos Correa's defensive numbers at SS started to climb at the end of the season when Polanco's injury kept him out of the lineup. This is the biggest reason why it would be difficult to trade Polanco. Nobody wants to downgrade their 2B defense that much. If Polanco is really this bad defensively then the Twins should trade him now before he becomes unplayable. 

Arraez and Gordon both graded out as average at 2B - Arraez slightly above and Gordon slightly below.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Kepler should be moved if for nothing more than salary relief to sign a viable shortstop or (heaven forbid) a top of the rotation starter.  We have more corner outfielders than Bonnes has favorite brew pubs. Middle infield continues to be a staffing challenge for the Twins.

If someone is in love with Arraez's batting average, I would move him too. I love the guy but he is essentially a singles hitting DH. That does not age well.  

They don't need salary relief to sign a SS or SP. They have plenty of room in the budget for the next several seasons.

Arraez might win the gold glove at 1B. He's not a terrible fielder.

Love the line about Bonnes.

[Doctor Gast]

36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Polanco was terrible at 2B in 2022. UZR/150 of -9.2 which was the second worst (to Gavin Lux). Second worst in Outs Above Average (-9) to Nolan Gorman. Below average in every defensive rating system and one of the worst fielding 2B in baseball in some of them. Carlos Correa's defensive numbers at SS started to climb at the end of the season when Polanco's injury kept him out of the lineup. This is the biggest reason why it would be difficult to trade Polanco. Nobody wants to downgrade their 2B defense that much. If Polanco is really this bad defensively then the Twins should trade him now before he becomes unplayable. 

Arraez and Gordon both graded out as average at 2B - Arraez slightly above and Gordon slightly below.

Polanco was playing hurt for at least half the season, that's not on him that on management for not addressing the problem. All that was needed a couple of days off, at most a short stay on the IL. But they let it go until he was out for the season. He'll be good as new come spring training, you make it look that he's washed up (not true).

I don't trust any defensive stats that grades Arraez & Gordon as average. Heaven help us if we depend on these stats. Yes Arraez can field a GB when it's hit right at him when he's in shallow RF but he has no range. If you have no range you have no business at 2B.

If Lux was so bad at 2B, why is it rumored that Lux might be promoted to SS? I trust LAD judgement & developement than any defensive stat or even GG

[DJL44]

40 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Arraez can field a GB when it's hit right at him when he's in shallow RF but he has no range.

You have just described the average 2B in 2022.

[gman]

Currently Polanco bats 3rd or 4th in next years lineup. If not, then who? Do we really want Gordon batting in any of the 3-5 spots again. Arreaz can bat leadoff or 2nd or 3rd, but not all 3 in the same game. Although that might be nice. We all hope that Kirilloff, Larnach and Miranda find spots in the middle of the order but they all have some proving to do yet. Later in the year maybe Lewis, Martin, Julien, Wallner and Lee are someplace in the lineup. Buxton, on occasion at the top of the lineup, but hitting 6th might truly be better.

I can't see starting next year without Polanco in the lineup, whatever position he plays. He not only hits better an drives in needed runs, but needs to be around to take pressure off the other guys. Remember this could be the first full year at the major league level for at least half the lineup.

[weitz41]

I don't think I would trade Polanco. If I had to trade one of the Twins 2nd basemen Arreaz would make more sense to me. He may be at his peak trade value. They both have their injury concerns. Plus I think Polanco is a far better player in the field. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not sure why he would be a trade candidate.  He epitomizes everything the Twins want:

- productive
- cost controlled
- not a cancer

Considering there is no immediate backup in the wings (Arraez was at first to protect his knees, Gordon is still a huge question) this would be pretty foolish.  There is no way they would receive plus value on a trade here.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

You have just described the average 2B in 2022.

The average MLB player doesn't steal, doesn't bunt, doesn't take an extra base, doesn't play defense and strikes out a lot. This isn't the standard that makes a competitive team. You'll end up forfeiting much more runs than you make. The shift ban will magnify this problem with a horrible mid INF, I don't care how many runs they may score. If we want to win we have to scrap the norm.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The shift ban will magnify this problem with a horrible mid INF

It is a little scary to think about that. Polanco was horrible even with a very limited range to cover at 2B. With shifting reduced next season he will need to cover more ground or he will be unplayable. It makes you wonder how much of the shifting the Twins did last season was to cover up for their terrible second base defense.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, gman said:

Currently Polanco bats 3rd or 4th in next years lineup. If not, then who?

They have to find someone who can take that spot in the lineup. If not they would need to trade Polanco as part of a rebuild.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

If I had to trade one of the Twins 2nd basemen Arreaz would make more sense to me.

Last year I wanted the Twins to make a decision on Polanco and Arraez at 2B and sell high on the one they didn’t choose. Still feel that way this offseason. As entertaining Arraez is, I lean towards trading him over Polanco. 

The story no Twins fan wants to talk about is how empty Arraez’s 2nd half numbers were at the plate. I know he was hobbling around playing through injury. However, without any power ability, he’s got to be producing like the 1st half all the time. Otherwise an empty .275 BA is no better than Jason Tyner. 

[Doctor Gast]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It is a little scary to think about that. Polanco was horrible even with a very limited range to cover at 2B. With shifting reduced next season he will need to cover more ground or he will be unplayable. It makes you wonder how much of the shifting the Twins did last season was to cover up for their terrible second base defense.

Polanco isn't the one to worry about unless you are thinking SS with his ankles & arm problem. Who we need to worry about is a 2nd rate SS that gets a HR here & there, that this FO might pick up and Arraez at 2B. To quote you "Correa defensive #s increased in the 2nd half after Polanco was hurt". Meaning when Polanco was healthy Correa didn't have to pick up any slack. Polanco will be 100% by the time the seasons starts & give us his above average defense at 2B, so you don't have to worry about that.

My opinion the shift with Correa at SS & Polanco at 2B was a waste of Correa's ability and was counter productive.

[Canton Clark]

Wrote an article advocating for this last year with hope the Mariners would be willing deal for him.

Wanted Matt Brash + .. Now, not sure they'd even be willing to do Brash now. If they are, would be all over it. Was dominant as a reliever. Posted a 2.13 era over his last 30 games once he was moved to the bullpen. Still has a shot at starting one day as well.

Would be a great 1-2 punch with Duran the next 5 years.

 

 

[bustedstuff88]

8 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Will never understand why we they want to trade away the better players?  

Because you need to give something to get something, and to keep him would A) clog up a second base spot that could go to other (cheaper) prospects, and b) because his value has likely peaked, so its a sell high type situation. 

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Last year I wanted the Twins to make a decision on Polanco and Arraez at 2B and sell high on the one they didn’t choose. Still feel that way this offseason. As entertaining Arraez is, I lean towards trading him over Polanco. 

The story no Twins fan wants to talk about is how empty Arraez’s 2nd half numbers were at the plate. I know he was hobbling around playing through injury. However, without any power ability, he’s got to be producing like the 1st half all the time. Otherwise an empty .275 BA is no better than Jason Tyner. 

Arraez is no longer a 2B. That's my problem with all of this "trade Polanco" talk. The Twins don't currently have a logjam at 2B. They have 1 major league quality 2B in the org right now and his name is Jorge Polanco. Arraez can't play a full season there, especially without the shift where his lack of range would be killer. Arraez is a DH/1B/3B in that order. I don't see him as part of this conversation at all, and I'd bet the team doesn't either.

As for the prospects, that's all they are. Julien and Martin are fun to think about right now cuz they're tearing up the AFL, but Julien is not a good defender, and Martin has to hit for more than 3 weeks before he's any part of the major league equation. I don't see any player anywhere in the org that is at all capable of being the opening day 2B outside of Polanco.

Why would we trade one of the few above average players we have left on the roster? Nobody is pushing Jorge out right now. Trading him would be a self inflicted wound that I think is completely unnecessary. They can spend to fill every hole they have. Why create a hole at 2B to attempt to fill a hole that can be filled simply by spending?

[mnfireman]

The "best" trade candidates would be Arraez and Gordon, if the organization feels Lewis, Martin and Julien are close to being ready. 

[Vanimal46]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Arraez is no longer a 2B.

Haven’t heard or read any statement that he is no longer a 2B. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Polanco isn't the one to worry about unless you are thinking SS with his ankles & arm problem. Who we need to worry about is a 2nd rate SS that gets a HR here & there, that this FO might pick up and Arraez at 2B. To quote you "Correa defensive #s increased in the 2nd half after Polanco was hurt". Meaning when Polanco was healthy Correa didn't have to pick up any slack. Polanco will be 100% by the time the seasons starts & give us his above average defense at 2B, so you don't have to worry about that.

My opinion the shift with Correa at SS & Polanco at 2B was a waste of Correa's ability and was counter productive.

No, I mean when Polanco was playing he was producing awful results AND dragging down Correa's numbers. When Polanco was out of the lineup due to injury he was replaced by Gordon and Arraez and the 2B and SS defense BOTH improved. Polanco was a giant black hole of suck in 2022 that made the entire infield defense worse. I hope it was just due to injury and not a permanent drop in his performance.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Haven’t heard or read any statement that he is no longer a 2B. 

I'm making the statement on my own. I don't think he's even remotely good enough defensively to be an everyday 2B (especially without the shift), and I think if his knees couldn't hold up for the entire season playing 72% of his games at 1B and DH this season they really couldn't hold up for an entire season if he was an everyday 2B. And the Twins wouldn't move Polanco back to SS because they didn't want his ankles dealing with the extra stress there so I'm not sure why we'd think they'd move Arraez off 1B to 2B with the shift disappearing where his knees would be under significantly greater stress.

My belief is that Arraez vs Polanco is not an apples to apples comparison. Polanco is an everyday 2B, Arraez is not. They're not a 1 for 1 proposition.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

My belief is that Arraez vs Polanco is not an apples to apples comparison. Polanco is an everyday 2B, Arraez is not

Based on the defensive stats posted here, neither should be an every day 2B. If Polanco is one of the worst in UZR  and Outs Above Average then Arraez can’t do much worse. Choose one and flip the other. If Arraez is indeed just a DH or 1B then it’s imperative to move him before he becomes an empty .280 hitter like Jason Tyner. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Based on the defensive stats posted here, neither should be an every day 2B. If Polanco is one of the worst in UZR  and Outs Above Average then Arraez can’t do much worse. Choose one and flip the other. If Arraez is indeed just a DH or 1B then it’s imperative to move him before he becomes an empty .280 hitter like Jason Tyner. 

1. Defensive metrics are trash. 2. If you've decided Arraez's 2nd half stats mean he's on his way to being an empty .280 hitter soon I'm pretty sure major league teams have figured that out as well and he's got 0 trade value already.

What realistic trade do you think they can get for either of them that improves the 2023 MN Twins as a whole? They're both top 4 hitters in the lineup, do you think a team is trading a different top 4 bat for one of them? You'd need a perfect situation to find a team that has a 2B hole that they think can be filled by one of those guys and they also have a top 4 bat at C, SS, or RH cOF that they'd be willing to ship out for one of those 2. I can't think of any team with multiple top 4 bats at either C or SS so can't fill either of those holes by trading one of those 2, and a RH cOF is super easy to fill without having to trade away one of your top 4 hitters.

Nobody is trading frontline starting pitching for either of those guys. Not even in a package, because no team thinks they have so much frontline starting pitching that they can compete in 2023 even after trading some away for a 2B and some prospects. You could get some prospect arms back for a package built around one of these guys, but the Twins don't need that, they need current MLB players that can improve their major league team. So the only option left is trading them for bullpen help. I personally wouldn't trade either of them for a bullpen piece, but you may feel different on that, which is completely fine.

[RpR]

At Baseball Ref. Arraez has better defense numbers but Polanco has the better bat.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I get the feeling that management hasn't learned anything from the last couple of years. And this season will be another wasted season.

The offseason is usually all about optimism and positive vibes that crescendo in Spring Training. It's a ritual for all baseball fans.

Your concern is one I share, yet I cling to the ideal that people do not need to repeat their past mistakes because learning is an option. We shall see how things play out. Hopefully.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What realistic trade do you think they can get for either of them that improves the 2023 MN Twins as a whole?

This is the magical question. The ideas that get thrown out can be ridiculous but we just don't know what another team values or is willing to give up in return.

Would Toronto part with Jansen (C) for Arraez and Gray?

Would Miami surrender P. Lopez and Cabrera for Larnach, Mahle, Jeffers, and N. Miller?

I have no idea what other teams value but a couple of trades along with maybe two or three additions via signing free agents seems like a way to improve the roster for 2023.