Twins Trade Candidate: Jorge Polanco

[Cody Christie]

Jorge Polanco was part of the same international signing class as Miguel Sano and Max Kepler. Will all three be out of the Twins lineup entering 2023?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. 

What Did He Do in 2022? 
Jorge Polanco has been one of the Twins' most valuable players recently. Since the start of 2019, Polanco has produced the team's second-most WAR behind Byron Buxton. The 2022 season saw Polanco miss significant time for the first time since 2018. He tried to play through a left knee injury, but his performance was still above average. In 104 games, he hit .235/.346/.405 (.751) with a 117 OPS+. One area significantly impacted by his injury was his defensive performance. He ranked in the 4th percentile according to Outs Above Average, and only three AL second basemen ranked lower than him in SDI. Like many Twins, injuries prevented him from having an even better season. 

Why is He a Trade Candidate?
There are multiple directions the Twins can go with lineup construction for the 2023 campaign. Luis Arraez and Nick Gordon can get more regular playing time at second base, or the Twins can look into the minors to fill the spot. Austin Martin and Edouard Julien are on pace to debut in 2023, especially with standout performances in the AFL. Martin is building off a strong September, while Julien has been an on-base machine. Both of these prospects have a chance to be the team's second baseman of the future, so the Twins may be willing to open the position for a younger player. 

What is His Trade Value?
Polanco is under team control for the next three seasons, which makes him one of the team's most valuable trade assets. He is under contract for $7.5 million in 2023, and he has a $10.5 million option for 2024 and a $12 million option for 2025. While missing time this season, FanGraphs pegged Polanco's value as $14.6 million. In 2021, he was worth over $33 million; in 2018, he was worth over $26 million. Polanco has significantly outperformed his contract, which might make other teams willing to trade for the second baseman. 

The current offseason might not be the optimal time to deal Polanco, but the front office needs to add some higher-level starting pitching options. Other prospects might not be ready until the second half, and the team might not want to hand over second base to Arraez or Gordon. Can Polanco be used to acquire starting pitchers that are MLB-ready? 

Do you think the Twins will trade Polanco? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
Gio Urshela
Emilio Pagan
Max Kepler

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[mikelink45]

He is our best candidate to move.  Better to  move veterans like Polanco than the younger prospects.  I think Polanco has peaked and he like so many Twins has too much injury history.  But most of all, there are a lot of replacements that are good quality.  

If we want something good we have to give up something good.  A position player like Polanco does not have the value to get a strong SP by himself, but in a package he can be the name that starts the discussion.  He represents more than Kepler who was discussed in another entry. 

[Mark G]

If one of the draws another team might be looking at is the amount of control left, and we have multiple options at 2nd if we were to move him, waiting until the trade deadline or even next year wouldn't make sense at all.  If you are going to move someone, you move him when his value is at its highest to get the maximum return.  I have lobbied for a while to move Jorge, as we need to make room for the younger guys, we have multiple options, and we can use the money saved to buy other immediate needs.  If we are going to move him, move him now so you know what you have to work with on those other needs, before those needs are snapped up elsewhere.  

[jmort]

They should call Seattle, the Mariners are looking for an upgrade at 2B. See if you can get a potential ace in Emerson Hancock, who could be ready later in 2023. 

This may be the best chance at acquiring an true number one pitcher. 

[sorney]

He is super valuable, and has a great contract.  Probably their best trade candidate.

As long as they don't trade him for another pitcher that "has had arm troubles in the past, but we checked him out and he is all good", they should flip him.

[MoyBoy74]

Think Seattle needs a 2nd baseman and they do have starting pitching they could deal. Could we get a young controllable starter for Polanco? I would do this trade. Bring back Urshela, play Miranda at 1B. Give Arraez one more shot at 2nd if Julien is not ready at start of season. Could also find minot leaguer to trade maybe Austin to Cleveland for Rosario to play SS. They won't pay him 9 million thru arbitration. Then we use Polanco money for SS. We have Correa money for number 1 starter. Since Twins won't do 300+ million for Correa anyway.

 

Thoughts?

[old nurse]

A Twins All Star 2B on the trading block?. Anybody got Dave’s number for the true scoop?

[Karbo]

I think too many people are focused on another starter. The only way I would go for another starter would be if he is an ace, and there aren't many of those, and the price would be much much more than Polo! I could see a trade for a strong RH hitting OFer, or even a good catcher. I would rather see them hold onto Polo for now and let him come back healthy. 

[Jeff D.]

Sano, no brainer, Kepler's time has come. IMO I would move Buxton, (if he agreed) and keep the steady clutch Polanco. He can play short, second or DH. Use Arraez and Gordon to keep the bats in the lineup. Shortstop is the question for the infield. 

Get some pitching!

Twins Geezer....out! 

[MABB1959]

Will never understand why we they want to trade away the better players?  

[Linus]

People do realize that chances are Julien and Martin will never match Jorge’s production right?  The guy is one of our best all around players on a great contract so let’s dump him?  Prospect love strikes again. 

[Nashvilletwin]

The previous “young core” - Sano, Polanco, Kepler, and Berrios - couldn’t get it done outside of one really fun, special year. I’ve truly enjoyed watching them so much over the past several years. Thanks gents.

The Twins moved on from Berrios obviously (and smartly) earlier, but it’s now time to transition away from the other three.  All are descending players with none having reached their true potential (Polanco being the closest). Their resignings were prescient, but the inability of the organization to continue to build upon their performance trajectory is what is most disappointing. For a mid-market team like the Twins, ongoing player development must become a source of differentiated competitive advantage.

Hopefully lessons were learned and we do better with the new “young core” of Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Jeffers, Miranda, Gordon, Arraez, Wallner, and even Celestino. Each of those players has a solid, if not very high, ceiling.

 

[umterp23]

Polanco, Kepler and Ober to Marlins for Lopez and a right handed OF bat.  

[Otaknam]

An interesting idea that makes sense for the right deal. It looks like Julien is an on base machine.

[roger]

No one, Cody, other than the guys running the front office know whether or not Polo is a trade candidate.  Yes, you state many reasons why it could make sense.  The fact is, this young man has been a huge part of much of the Twins recent success and I for one would be heartbroken should they trade him.  And no, I don't believe they need to trade Polo, or anyone, for another top pitcher as I am comfortable with their current staff.

Another reason why he will probably stay is they just may view him as their starting shortstop early next season until Lewis or Lee is ready to take the position.  Of the players currently on their roster, he is the most likely candidate for that role. 

[CRF]

I like Polanco, but I agree he's a pretty good trade chip. Just my opinion...I think I'd explore moving him for pitching, and put Arraez at 2nd, Miranda at 1st, and keep Urshela to play at 3rd. 

[DJL44]

Let's just be clear - Julien hasn't proven anything yet. Pitching in the Arizona Fall League is lousy this season. I would like to see a half season at AAA before he debuts.

They can afford to move Polanco because they have another All-Star 2B in Arraez on the roster as well as plenty of MLB caliber depth (Gordon, Lewis, Miranda) and several interesting prospects (Martin, Lee, Julien, Schobel, Miller and the surprising Dalton Shuffield) in the infield.

The upcoming free agent market is actually pretty lousy for 2B. Jean Segura and Brandon Drury are the top talent. Both are older and less desirable than Polanco.

I wouldn't even target anything in particular for Polanco. Get the best overall talent you can find. If that includes a catcher even better.

The reason NOT to move Polanco is he is coming off a down year with bad defense and time lost to injuries, If they can't find a good return he can absolutely help this team in 2023.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, CRF said:

I like Polanco, but I agree he's a pretty good trade chip. Just my opinion...I think I'd explore moving him for pitching, and put Arraez at 2nd, Miranda at 1st, and keep Urshela to play at 3rd. 

Unless SS has the name Correa or Turner, this could end up being the worst infield in the majors if things go array. If Arraez continues to hit and Miranda really, really improves and Gio is solid it could be one of the better.

 

I would trade Polanco if and only if I signed Turner or Correa. There is no chance I am going into next year with Buxton's injury questions, Larnach/Ak questions, Miranda questions, question at 2B and all the health questions with the pitchers. Because if things go wrong it could be the end of this FO.

[MGM4706]

For the people saying they are comfortable with Twins current staff - What team are you watching? Look at Playoffs. All the better teams had an Ace and strong #2. Twins have maybe 1 #2 and then 3'and 4's. And with Rocco only going 4-5 innings with starters they need all new middle relief. Without pitching changes they will again be .500. Simple as that  Profit remains the key. NOT winning 

[Shobae]

Personally I'm against trading Polanco, I think the thing people are forgetting here is that Arraez is arguably less durable than Polanco as well as a worse defensive second baseman (though both have inconclusive samples). With the shift ban I'd argue the position will become more difficult (though I don't think by a lot) which would make the gap in ability potentially even wider. So this could backfire not only defensively but also cost arraez health by playing a more demanding position than 1B/DH.
Then there's the topic of Nick Gordon who, while he had a good season, was offensively worse than Polanco and also only did this over 443 PA so it's a massive gamble to have him fill in and expect to be able to fill in the lost value of Polanco. Though not as big of a risk as relying on rookies and prospects to do so.
I would say keep Polanco because he is a proven major league level second baseman with proven MLB upside, if the twins are serious about competing again. If he ends up blocking someone that's a problem you'd like to have, instead of the opposite when you can't make up the production you traded away.

[saviking]

I'd move Polanco and Kepler for quality relivers and minor league talent. You're not going to get an ace starter for them so this would be ore productive. I think Julia will be our second baseman of the future or Martin. 

[Doctor Gast]

It's an absolute shame the way that mangement ran Polo to the ground. When he 1st shown signs of injury they should have started to give him a break on the IL to rest his knee besides the treatment they may have given him. 2 months of well below 100% production until he was lost for the season, is unexcuseable. The 2nd half is when he normally really turns it on when he's healthy.

1st reason why we shouldn't trade him now is. Besides the lost production he lost when we really needed it, he lost trade value. Too many people trade when their stock is down, that the exactly when not to sell. Polanco is well below his true trade value, so I wouldn't think about trading him. You trade someone when they are rated above their true value. I advocated to trade Maeda in the '20/'21 off season because his trade value was inflated, to trade for a bona fide ace.

2nd reason is we have no one capable to replace him right now. The 2 you mention are terrible, the shift helped to hide some of their warts. But now with the shift banned and possible lost of Correa, our INF will become a laughing stock & extreme embarassment to the team & fans, not to mention a deep hole we'll be in, Until they throw untested prospects in there and it'll be '21 all over again.

 Yes we have needs that we should trade for but our best bet is someone that has an inflated trade value & who's not essential defensively. I like Polo but when the prospects have gotten their feet wet & has shown that they are ready both defensively &  offensively & Polo's trade value is where it should be then we can think about trade. But not now! 

[Blyleven2011]

It's discouraging talking about trading this guy or that guy  right now  , the twins are not playing right now because the plan went south ...

The playoffs were played and there was some solid exciting performances to watch the way baseball should be played ...

The world series starts Friday  , I will be watching  ...

I live for opening day and the world series and everything in-between  ...

Yes , I wish it was the twins playing exciting baseball  in the fall ...

[Mark G]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's an absolute shame the way that mangement ran Polo to the ground. When he 1st shown signs of injury they should have started to give him a break on the IL to rest his knee besides the treatment they may have given him. 2 months of well below 100% production until he was lost for the season, is unexcuseable. The 2nd half is when he normally really turns it on when he's healthy.

1st reason why we shouldn't trade him now is. Besides the lost production he lost when we really needed it, he lost trade value. Too many people trade when their stock is down, that the exactly when not to sell. Polanco is well below his true trade value, so I wouldn't think about trading him. You trade someone when they are rated above their true value. I advocated to trade Maeda in the '20/'21 off season because his trade value was inflated, to trade for a bona fide ace.

2nd reason is we have no one capable to replace him right now. The 2 you mention are terrible, the shift helped to hide some of their warts. But now with the shift banned and possible lost of Correa, our INF will become a laughing stock & extreme embarassment to the team & fans, not to mention a deep hole we'll be in, Until they throw untested prospects in there and it'll be '21 all over again.

 Yes we have needs that we should trade for but our best bet is someone that has an inflated trade value & who's not essential defensively. I like Polo but when the prospects have gotten their feet wet & has shown that they are ready both defensively &  offensively & Polo's trade value is where it should be then we can think about trade. But not now! 

I would submit that his trade value is the highest it might be right now.  He turns 30 next July, and the older he gets the less valuable he is.  And he has 3 years of control now, and the less control as time goes by also decreases his value in a trade.  Coming off an injury is never ideal, but at 29 (currently), a team friendly contract, and 3 years of team control pretty much maximizes his trade value; the longer we wait that only decreases.  Waiting for him to be healthy and bring his stats back to normal might make him look better to the eye, but teams today look at the above when considering giving something up in trade.  Or so I am told every day on TD.    

[farmerguychris]

I see no reason to trade him.  We are nearly at the point of the season where we can acquire good starting pitching for nothing in trade, only money.  No reason to weaken our roster on the O side to get a pitcher when we can get them for only cash (which we have plenty of).

[Cris E]

32 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Unless SS has the name Correa or Turner, this could end up being the worst infield in the majors if things go array. If Arraez continues to hit and Miranda really, really improves and Gio is solid it could be one of the better.

 

I would trade Polanco if and only if I signed Turner or Correa. There is no chance I am going into next year with Buxton's injury questions, Larnach/Ak questions, Miranda questions, question at 2B and all the health questions with the pitchers. Because if things go wrong it could be the end of this FO.

Even with Correa the infield defense with Miranda and Arraez would not be good. Polanco may not be great at 2B, but he is better than Arraez. I would only trade Polanco for something specific and special (TOR catcher, FLA pitching) not just to avoid salary or a potential logjam at 2b. None of our prospects are so good that we need to get him out of their way, and we could have used his bat last year when everyone else went to pieces. He is valuable because he is good. Let's see where everyone else shakes out this spring before we start throwing good players over the side.  

Here's a thought: Gordon is coming into his own and plays a fair CF and 2B. What's his value right now? He may be worth almost as much given the thinness in the CF market. 

 

 

[chpettit19]

If they trade Polanco they should trade every veteran and start over. I don't see how you improve the team by trading him. Seattle is not giving up Hancock for Polanco. Nobody is giving up a pitcher better than Gray for Polanco. The only hope for a better team without Polanco than with Polanco is if you're trading him to clear money to sign Correa, Turner, and Rodon.

There are no prospects that deserve space on the MLB team be cleared for them. There's some solid guys that should get chances throughout 2023, but none have proven they can help the Twins win and deserve a spot out of ST for a winning club. If they're trying to win they need to keep Jorge Polanco. If they're starting over they need to trade Kepler, Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Gio, Lopez, and any other veteran I'm forgetting (Buxton has a no trade clause) and start over. Don't rearrange the deck chairs. Either sink the titanic and start over or go in and reinforce the hull so it can handle more iceberg damage and keep on truckin.

[Mark G]

3 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Even with Correa the infield defense with Miranda and Arraez would not be good. Polanco may not be great at 2B, but he is better than Arraez. I would only trade Polanco for something specific and special (TOR catcher, FLA pitching) not just to avoid salary or a potential logjam at 2b. None of our prospects are so good that we need to get him out of their way, and we could have used his bat last year when everyone else went to pieces. He is valuable because he is good. Let's see where everyone else shakes out this spring before we start throwing good players over the side.  

Here's a thought: Gordon is coming into his own and plays a fair CF and 2B. What's his value right now? He may be worth almost as much given the thinness in the CF market. 

 

 

Not a bad thought at all, but as for his value, it is in the number of years of control we have right now and a 6 figure salary as opposed to an 8 figure salary, which is what Jorge is going to get in '24 and '25.  That, in and of itself, might be enticing to plenty of teams, but it is probably what will keep him here.  

As an aside, and at the risk of being told I am off topic, we talk a lot about should we keep Urshella at 3rd or not.  In the same sense that we might have a log jam at 2nd, do we have a log jam at 3rd?  And is that why a lot of folks here don't think we should keep him, giving the job to Miranda, or if he fails, someone up and coming the following year.  Why would 2nd base be any different?  30 mil for the next 3 years of a 30ish (starting next year) Polanco, or about the same to a 30ish Urshella.  We have to make way at some point for the kids coming up, or trade them.  And only one year of control('23) of Urshella makes him worth little in trade, where as Polanco has a value right now.  Do we wait until he doesn't have that value?  Do we keep him his whole career and move the kids coming up?  I happen to believe we have enough depth that someone will step up and take control of the position, leaving the cash for other things.  Isn't that how we have been looking at 3rd base?  And first with Sano?  We might have to make moves we don't want to make to adjust our 40 man to a better balance.  Just my thought.  

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

Not a bad thought at all, but as for his value, it is in the number of years of control we have right now and a 6 figure salary as opposed to an 8 figure salary, which is what Jorge is going to get in '24 and '25.  That, in and of itself, might be enticing to plenty of teams, but it is probably what will keep him here.  

As an aside, and at the risk of being told I am off topic, we talk a lot about should we keep Urshella at 3rd or not.  In the same sense that we might have a log jam at 2nd, do we have a log jam at 3rd?  And is that why a lot of folks here don't think we should keep him, giving the job to Miranda, or if he fails, someone up and coming the following year.  Why would 2nd base be any different?  30 mil for the next 3 years of a 30ish (starting next year) Polanco, or about the same to a 30ish Urshella.  We have to make way at some point for the kids coming up, or trade them.  And only one year of control('23) of Urshella makes him worth little in trade, where as Polanco has a value right now.  Do we wait until he doesn't have that value?  Do we keep him his whole career and move the kids coming up?  I happen to believe we have enough depth that someone will step up and take control of the position, leaving the cash for other things.  Isn't that how we have been looking at 3rd base?  And first with Sano?  We might have to make moves we don't want to make to adjust our 40 man to a better balance.  Just my thought.  

I think the difference is that the top 3B prospect in the org (Miranda) has already graduated and is on the major league team. He's not established as he'll need to show he can make adjustments in his 2nd season, but he's shown he can hit major league pitching. You're not clearing a spot for an unknown by moving on from Urshela (and for the record I wouldn't move on from him). Moving on from Polanco would be to clear a spot for an unknown or Arraez who's knees pretty clearly can't handle a full season at 2B and is a fielder who will struggle mightily at 2B without the shift.

I don't believe in the "logjam" theory others do. You don't have a logjam until you have too many proven, healthy major leaguers for all 26 spots. The Twins don't have more than 26 proven, healthy major leaguers, in my opinion.

[Mark G]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the difference is that the top 3B prospect in the org (Miranda) has already graduated and is on the major league team. He's not established as he'll need to show he can make adjustments in his 2nd season, but he's shown he can hit major league pitching. You're not clearing a spot for a unknown by moving on from Urshela (and for the record I wouldn't move on from him). Moving on from Polanco would be to clear a spot for an unknown or Arraez who's knees pretty clearly can't handle a full season at 2B and is a fielder who will struggle mightily at 2B without the shift.

I don't believe in the "logjam" theory others do. You don't have a logjam until you have too many proven, healthy major leaguers for all 26 spots. The Twins don't have more than 26 proven, healthy major leaguers, in my opinion.

I concur on quite a bit.  I have lobbied to keep Urshella for a while now, and still want to.  And, while I don't think Arraez would be a 140 game a year 2nd baseman, he could spell 1st and DH often enough to keep him from that.  Or maybe give Gordon a shot with Arraez as his back up.  But right now I see a roster with a lot of outfielders, and a lot of infielders who play 2nd and 3rd and fill in at 1st.  But we didn't have a true 1st baseman much of last year, and we aren't going to bring back Sano, so do we keep the converts there and hope for the best, or find a first baseman?  And we surely need another catcher (one that can throw out runners?), we have to sign a SS of some length and ability, and I see a need for a couple of stud BP guys.  And that is assuming we are going to go with the starters we have now.  If we buy those needs with all that cash everyone thinks we are going to have (I am not holding my breath on that), then aren't we just clogging our 40 man even more?  We have a lot of assets and a lot of holes.  Back in the day ( i know how much everyone hates it when I say that), we would trade one to fill the other.  Right now the proven major leaguer that has a fairly decent contract and 3 years of control is an asset that, coupled with a prospect or two, might bring something to fill one of those needs.  No one wants to pull that trigger, but it just might be the best bullet we have.