Reviewing 2022 Performances by the Twins Starting Pitching Prospects

[Cody Christie]

Derek Falvey was touted for his pitching pipeline in Cleveland. Can the Twins start seeing results from their own pitching pipeline?

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

At the onset of the 2022 season, Minnesota's front office put a vote of confidence in the pitching pipeline by not signing a frontline starting pitcher. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were the team's two free-agent acquisitions, and neither performed exceptionally well. Unfortunately, Minnesota's pitching pipeline also struggled, but signs point to a potential turnaround in 2023. Here are how the team's top pitching prospects performed in 2022.  

Triple-A: Jordan Balazovic (ETA: 2023), Simeon Woods Richardson (ETA: 2022), Louie Varland (ETA: 2022), Ronny Henriquez (ETA: 2022)
Woods Richardson and Varland are the two highlights of this group, as they both started the year at Double-A and finished it in the Twins rotation. By many accounts, Woods Richardson is still considered the better prospect, but Varland has now won back-to-back awards as the organization's minor league pitcher of the year. Woods Richardson posted a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP across 23 appearances. Varland made 24 appearances with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Next year, both arms project to start in the Saints rotation, but they will be needed at the big-league level at some point in 2023. 

The Twins acquired Henriquez as part of the Mitch Garver trade with Texas. He is an intriguing prospect to watch as the club must decide at some point in the future if he is a starter or reliever moving forward. Henriquez made his big-league debut in 2022 as a reliever, but the organization will likely allow him to start again in 2023. As a 22-year-old, he was very young for Triple-A and posted a 5.66 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in 95 1/3 innings. Henriquez wasn't the only prospect to see a poor performance at Triple-A. 

Balazovic struggled to start 2022, but he finished the season on a positive note. Entering the 2022 season, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had him in their top-100 prospects. In 23 appearances, Balazovic had a 7.68 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP. He has been one of the team's top pitching prospects for multiple seasons, and his development is key to the organization's pitching pipeline. Henriquez and Balazovic should be at Triple-A to start 2023. 

Double-A: Blayne Enlow (ETA: 2023), Brent Headrick (ETA: 2024)
Minnesota added Enlow to the 40-man roster last winter even though he was expected to miss most of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. Enlow was used as a starter and reliever and posted a 4.73 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP in 59 innings. It will be interesting to see if he sticks on the 40-man roster because the Twins have a lot of clean-up this winter. He will likely need to start 2022 at Double-A because he is continuing to build up his arm strength following surgery.  

Varland has received most of the attention, but Headrick was in the same draft class and has performed well. He split time between High-A and Double-A with a 3.32 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP in 108 innings. He struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and his strikeout numbers improved after being promoted to Double-A. Headrick will start next season at Double-A, but he will have the opportunity to move to Triple-A in the second half. 

High-A: David Festa (ETA: 2024), Sean Mooney (ETA: 2024), Jaylen Nowlin (ETA: 2024)
The Twins took Festa in the 13th round in 2019, but he has seen his prospect stock rise since that point. In 2022, he made starts at Low- and High-A with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He dominated in Fort Myers with a 12.4 K/9, but that total dipped to 8.5 K/9 after his promotion. Festa was a little young for the Midwest League, so he can start 2023 at that level before moving up the organizational ladder. 

Mooney is an intriguing pitching prospect, averaging 13.5 K/9 during his first two professional seasons. Unfortunately, injuries have been part of his career which has limited him to just over 100 innings pitched since 2021. Since he turns 25 in January, the team may need to push him to Double-A during the 2023 season.   

Nowlin was a 19th round pick in 2021 and he made it all the way to High-A last in 2022. He posted video-game strikeout numbers in his first full season with 14.1 K/9 in 71 innings. He throws hard and is left-handed, which may help his prospect status entering 2023. He only made three starts at High-A to end 2022, so he likely starts next season in Cedar Rapids. 

Low-A: Marco Raya (ERA: 2025)
In recent memory, Raya is one of the Twins' most exciting pitching prospects. He missed most of 2021 with a shoulder strain, so the 2022 season marked his professional debut. In 19 games (65 innings), he posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a 76-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He will be 20 years old for most of the 2023 season, so it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Twins are with his promotions. It seems likely for the club to keep him in Fort Myers for the cold months to start the year and promote him to Cedar Rapids later in the year. 

The names above are just some of the organization's starting pitching options in the years ahead. Connor Prielipp, a 2022 second-round pick, is arguably the Twins' best pitching prospect, and he has yet to make a professional appearance. Matt Canterino has been dominant on the mound, but health was an issue, and now he will miss 2023 following Tommy John surgery. Brayan Medina is a name to watch in the rookie leagues, as MLB.com already ranks him as the team's 17th-best prospect. This group needs to start producing if Falvey wants to recreate Cleveland's pitching success.

Will the Twins' pitching pipeline emerge in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[mac098]

The supposed pipeline has been...okay. Balazovic needs to perform this upcoming season, or he might have his seat on the 40 man taken. SWR, IMO, should be under this groups pipeline because he came over in a trade and has only been part of the organization for just over a year. He is a product of Toronto's/Met's upbringing. 

I understand that Enlow has upside to go with his injury, but he really needs to start showing he deserves the roster spot. It wouldn't at all surprise me if he were to end up on the 60 day for TJ surgery, he would end up getting outrighted off the 40 man. 2 year lost at crucial time for development is tough on players. We will have to see how he does in the spring and early parts of the season.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Sounds promising, but until these pitchers start producing at the major league level the "pipeline" has been more like a bent straw.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

It is my hope that the FO will not sign below average starters who are "innings eaters". Think about that a moment. Why do you want to give lots of innings to a below average pitcher? The predicted results will be below average for a large number of innings, straining the bullpen, and resulting in losses.  A win is a win and a loss is a loss, whether it is April or September. Promote several of these young pitchers, acclimate them to the big leagues, and let the cream rise to the top. It would be helpful to the young pitchers and to the Twins to allow some to be relief pitchers, while they get used to the Big Show. Next year those who prove themselves worthy can look forward to starting for the Twins. Sign and play mediocre pitchers and you get mediocre results and another .500 season.   

[tony&rodney]

Henriquez could help the Twins in long relief and see what is needed at the highest level of baseball. If he can command and control three or more pitches he could work his way into the rotation down the road. 

[mikelink45]

That is a great recap.  But luckily we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Richardson on the team as the season ended, the question is which if them will get a good chance in the majors next year.

Balazovic and Enlow are the two most disappointing.  

Is this a pipeline to A+ starters or to middle to end of the rotation arms?  It will be interesting to see how it sorts out. 

[Blyleven2011]

Ryan made 5 starts in 2021 and then started opening day in 2022 ...

Varland made 5 starts in 2022 and most likely will start the season  in AAA unless sonny gray requests a trade or there is an injury ... 

SWR will start the season at AAA unless there is an injury  ...

Balazovic and enlow are prospects and need to improve performance in 2023 or they are no longer prospects  ...

The rest are working there way to the majors with good results but a year or two away  ...

[Otaknam]

Just curious. Why is Brayan Medina on this list as someone to watch. His stats are very poor. Lots if walks, high ERA, etc. Not much size. Must have a 100 mph fastball. Please enlighten us. Thx.

[Tjwalsh65]

Still a teenager, Medina has room to add to his 6-foot-1, 180-pound frame, which may increase his velocity in the years ahead. He currently has a three-pitch mix, including a fastball, slider, and changeup. According to MLB Pipeline, his fastball grades as a 60 as it sits in the mid-90s, but he can occasionally pump it up into the high-90s. His slider is his best secondary pitch as it currently grades as a 55, which is above average. His changeup has shown the most improvement since he signed and currently grades as a 50. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 14th best Padres prospect.

 

 

I found that info from a year ago.

 

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, mac098 said:

It wouldn't at all surprise me if he were to end up on the 60 day for TJ surgery,

Enlow - he returned from TJ surgery in 2022 and won't end up on the 60 day IL in 2023. If you are predicting another one, he is no longer in the Twins plans at that point. As for 2022, he probably did what the Twins expected, which is why I think he will stay on the 40 man into next year. I do agree with you, he must produce in 2023 or someone will take his 40 man roster spot.

[weitz41]

If the FO doesn't sign any back of the rotation starters this offseason I for one will be happy about the pitching pipeline. It's been quite a few seasons since that wasn't a mandatory thing. Hopefully in 2-3 seasons we're talking about extending some theses players while it's still do able.

[roger]

20 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Enlow - he returned from TJ surgery in 2022 and won't end up on the 60 day IL in 2023. If you are predicting another one, he is no longer in the Twins plans at that point. As for 2022, he probably did what the Twins expected, which is why I think he will stay on the 40 man into next year. I do agree with you, he must produce in 2023 or someone will take his 40 man roster spot.

Thanks for the comment, Finn.  You said exactly what I was thinking.  Unlike many, I was elated every time I checked a box score and saw Enlow with 3 or 4 innings pitched.  Really didn't care what the results were, the important part was that he was on the mound pitching.  Will second, or third, the comment that if he has a bad 2023, then yes remove him from the 40-man.

Question, Cody?  When did Canterino have his surgery?  Won't he be back sometime during the season?  Can he have a season similar to what Enlow had this year?  At least as far as innings pitched? 

[Rosterman]

You gotta like the homegrown future.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 10/25/2022 at 8:59 AM, Blyleven2011 said:

 unless sonny gray requests a trade

I have seen similar comments elsewhere here.  It really doesn't matter if Gray wants to leave or not,  This isn't the NBA, the Twins are not required to trade him.

If Gray wants out and the Twins decline to move him, it is in his best interest to go out pitch his best anyways.  The combination of disgruntled player, poor play, and a walk year results in poor contract offers.

If Gray doesn't like his situation, he really just needs to stay quiet, pitch his butt off, and get a better deal next year somewhere else.