Finding an Ace

[mk]

No matter if your definition of an “Ace” is one of the top 5-10 pitchers in baseball or you’re talking about a #1 starter on a playoff team, in my opinion the Twins have been searching for a consistent “Ace” ever since Bill Smith traded Johan Santana prior to the 2008 season.

How did the Twins get him? Santana was selected in the 1999 Rule 5 draft by the Florida Marlins and traded, with cash, to the Twins for Jared Camp. So, the tried and tested method for the Twins over the last 20 years is… extreme luck.

After 20 years, the Twins may be coming due for some luck again. But short of that, in my mind there have been multiple reasons/explanations that have undermined the Twins quest to find another “Ace.”

 

Draft:

2021: Chase Petty: 26th overall selection. Pitched 1 year in the Twins organization, traded to the Reds as part of a trade for Sonny Gray.

With only 1 pitcher taken in the first round of the draft by the current front office, it seems clear they don’t view the draft as the best option to obtain an “Ace.” For example, pitchers Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, or Kyle Wright could have been had in 2017 but instead the Twins went for Royce Lewis. If Lewis turns out, fantastic, but it still shows they weren’t comfortable gambling a first-round pick on obtaining an Ace.

 

Development:

In terms of development, a pitcher with “Ace” potential in the Twins minor league system has been hard to come by. There have been a few with “Ace” type stuff but the Twins haven’t been able to turn them into a frontline starter.

Fernando Romero: Big fastball and a good slider put Fernando on the top of the Twins pitching prospects. Debuted in the majors in 2018 and it was a quick decline from there.

Brusdar Graterol: Could be considered an exception as they did flip him for a frontline starter. Traded for Kenta Maeda, more to come on him.  Doesn’t look like Brusdar will ever be an Ace, but still an above-average reliever.

Jhoan Duran: Has the big fastball and secondary pitches that would give him “Ace” potential. But, arm problems in 2021 and utter dominance in the 2022 major league bullpen convinced the Twins brass he was too big of an asset to risk moving back into the starting rotation. There’s debate about the value of having an “Ace” to play out of the bullpen, but save that for another day.

Others: Is there potential for Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Varland, or others? Maybe, but I don’t think anyone is thinking they will establish themselves as the next Pedro Martinez at this point.

 

Trade Acquisitions:

This has been the most successful avenue in the search for an Ace. But I admit these are more #1/#2 starters rather than a true “Ace.”

• 2018: Jake Odorizzi: Received in trade for Jermaine Palacios. Not an ace, but a very nice acquisition
• 2020: Kenta Maeda: Received in trade for Brusdar Graterol. Maeda finished 2nd in Cy Young Voting in 2020 and that performance warrants “Ace” discussion. Unfortunately things haven’t gone as well since 2020. Injured in 2021 and rehabbing for all of 2022. With one year left on his current contract, the Twins certainly hope he can get back to the “Ace” form he showed in 2020.
• 2021: Joe Ryan: Received in a deadline trade for an aging Nelson Cruz. Not an “Ace” but pitching very well. A 1.102 WHIP over his first full season and striking out more than a batter per inning. Doesn’t seem to have the raw stuff of and ace, but never say never and my fingers are crossed.
• 2022: Sonny Gray, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle. Gray was received after dealing 2021 1st round pick Chase Petty. The Paddack deal involved Taylor Rogers and others. Mahle for trading a few prospects. Gray has been good, Paddack and Mahle have been hurt. Are any of them “Ace” pitchers? I would say no, as just about every Twins fan is still clamoring for the Twins to acquire a true “Ace.”

 

Free Agency:

Lance Lynn, Martin Perez, Michael Pineda, Rich Hill, Matt Shoemaker, J.A. Happ, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer.

I can’t bring myself to write anything about these guys except to say they DO NOT fall into the “Ace” category.

On the other hand, while Twins fans wanted that clear-cut #1 starter in free agency, what has been available? Below are the free agent pitchers that have received more than $15MM average annual value since 2018.

2018:

• Yu Darvish: 6 years, $126MM
• Jake Arrieta: 3 years, $75MM

2019:

• Patrick Corbin: 6 years, $140MM

2020:

• Gerrit Cole: 8 years, $324MM
• Stephen Strasburg: 7 years, $245MM
• Zack Wheeler: 5 years, $118MM
• Madison Bumgarner: 5 years, $85MM
• Hyun-Jin Ryu: 4 years, $80MM
• Dallas Keuchel: 3 years, $55.5MM

2021:

• Trevor Bauer: 3 years, $102MM

2022:

• Kevin Gausman: 5 years $110MM
• Robbie Ray: 5 years, $115MM
• Max Scherzer: 3 years, $130MM
• Eduardo Rodriguez: 5 years, $77MM
• Carlos Rodon: 2 years, $44MM
• Justin Verlander: 1 year, $25MM

Of these players:

How many legitimately considered moving to the Twin Cities? I know at least Wheeler and Bumgarner had geographic requirements that didn’t include the Midwest.

How many have a legitimate shot at a 2022 Cy Young Award? I count Verlander.

How many would still be considered an “Ace” in 2022? Verlander, Scherzer, Cole. Maybe Darvish, Wheeler, Rodon, and Gausman.

How many would have a hard time competing for a spot in the Twins’ 26-man roster for 2023? Arrieta, Corbin, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel, Bauer, and maybe Rodriguez

 

Conclusion:

There are numerous ways a team can get an “Ace” on the pitching staff but there’s one thing for certain, getting an “Ace” on your team is hard.

The Twins could draft the wrong player. Maybe Royce Lewis will be great, but if the ultimate goal was to have an “Ace” on your team, Kyle Wright is already in the conversation for one of the best pitchers in the league.

A prospect can get derailed in development. Jhoan Duran had potential until injury limited his 2021 season. Who knows what might have been? He’s a dominant reliever but could he have stayed healthy and maintained his elite raw stuff for multiple innings to be an “Ace” starting pitcher? We will probably never get the chance to find out.

The Twins could trade away a future “Ace.” Maybe that was Chase Petty. Maybe it was Steven Hajjar. Maybe that was Brusdar Graterol. The Twins did trade for Kenta Maeda who performed like an “Ace” in his first season with the Twins. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan were good in their first seasons with the Twins. Is that close enough?

The front office could sign an “Ace” in free agency. Easier said than done. Some are priced so high that only the teams with the very top payrolls have a legitimate chance. Some free agent starting pitchers just didn’t want to spend their summers in Minneapolis. And, many of the top starting pitchers on the market never lived up to their big time contracts. It seems, in the eyes of Derek Falvey/Thad Levine, the success rate of a high-priced starting pitcher just hasn’t been worth the risk of the big contracts.

Of course, the ultimate goal of having an elite, “Ace” starting pitcher is to win the World Series – which the Twins were unable to do even with Johan Santana. Maybe as Twins fans we need to look back to the last time the Twins won the World Series. In 1991 Scott Erickson, Jack Morris, and Kevin Tapani finished 2nd, 4th, and 7th in the AL Cy Young Award voting. Scott Erickson was drafted in the 4th round and developed by the Twins. Jack Morris was acquired as a free agent. Kevin Tapani was acquired via trade and developed in the minor leagues by the Twins. If the 2023 Twins could put something like that together, I like their chances.

[Doctor Gast]

There's a lot of debate about what entails to be an ace, there are many pitchers that people call aces that don't come close to what I call an ace. I think a good way to find an ace is having a good eye, insight in what a pitcher needs to become an ace, the know how to bring it about. (Some teams have it, most don't don't have any idea.) And a lot of luck.

One reason they don't draft many pitchers 1st round anymore is because they have terrible luck at it. 

I think we all agree that Johan Santana was an ace.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, mk said:

Jhoan Duran: Has the big fastball and secondary pitches that would give him “Ace” potential. But, arm problems in 2021 and utter dominance in the 2022 major league bullpen convinced the Twins brass he was too big of an asset to risk moving back into the starting rotation.

How sure are you that the Twins won’t stretch Duran back out over the next couple seasons?

He wants to start, the Rotation is rather thin next year (‘24). Hints at reducing payroll for ‘23…. Seems like ‘23 is a punt year anyways…

why not stretch him out?

[notoriousgod71]

The Twins only chance at having an ace is pure luck because their mindset prevents them from acquiring one via trade , signing one in free agency, or drafting one.

[Parfigliano]

19 hours ago, notoriousgod71 said:

The Twins only chance at having an ace is pure luck because their mindset prevents them from acquiring one via trade , signing one in free agency, or drafting one.

Yup.  Luck through draft or trade.  Ownership is never gonna shell out Cole type money in a free agency acquisition.

[weitz41]

Duran is probably the only pitcher we have that could be an ace. But I think that ship has sailed due to injury concerns. Canterino I think had a chance to become one. I agree with others that I can't see them spending $ to sign one. So blind luck seems like the most likely way.

In 2014 Jacob DeGrom (a 9th round pick in 2010) was the Mets 14th ranked prospect per MLB. Proof it can happen.

[Vanimal46]

21 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

How sure are you that the Twins won’t stretch Duran back out over the next couple seasons?

He wants to start, the Rotation is rather thin next year (‘24). Hints at reducing payroll for ‘23…. Seems like ‘23 is a punt year anyways…

why not stretch him out?

This is going to be an interesting topic over the winter. It’s not an easy call to make. Removing Duran from the BP makes the Twins one of the worst bullpen units in the league. But he raises the ceiling of the starting staff if he can pace himself for 5-6 innings. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

Duran is probably the only pitcher we have that could be an ace. But I think that ship has sailed due to injury concerns. Canterino I think had a chance to become one. I agree with others that I can't see them spending $ to sign one. So blind luck seems like the most likely way.

In 2014 Jacob DeGrom (a 9th round pick in 2010) was the Mets 14th ranked prospect per MLB. Proof it can happen.

Canterino will be 25 in December and has pitched 85 innings in the minors (since 2019) so I agree the odds of him becoming an Ace is probably low.

DeGrom is a unicorn, he started out as a SS in college and moved to relief than starter. Didn't hit the minors until he was 22 and make the majors until he was 26. At no point should any team EVER think somebody would end up like DeGrom. Of course how great he has been he only has 82 wins and only 1326 innings in his 9 year career. (To compare Verlander had 83 wins by age 27, Cole had 84 by age 28)

 

[weitz41]

17 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Canterino will be 25 in December and has pitched 85 innings in the minors (since 2019) so I agree the odds of him becoming an Ace is probably low.

DeGrom is a unicorn, he started out as a SS in college and moved to relief than starter. Didn't hit the minors until he was 22 and make the majors until he was 26. At no point should any team EVER think somebody would end up like DeGrom. Of course how great he has been he only has 82 wins and only 1326 innings in his 9 year career. (To compare Verlander had 83 wins by age 27, Cole had 84 by age 28)

 

I agree completely Canterino chances are low. The stats say..maybe..but health says nada chance. Cole didn't really do that much till the Astros got him. Verlander was always really good or an ace, Scherzer got traded before he was considered an ace. DeGrom as a unicorn I think equals blind luck. So trades or blind luck. I think the FO has been pretty good at trades just no aces yet. If this team has any luck, it's not the good kind.

[mac098]

15 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I agree completely Canterino chances are low. The stats say..maybe..but health says nada chance. Cole didn't really do that much till the Astros got him. Verlander was always really good or an ace, Scherzer got traded before he was considered an ace. DeGrom as a unicorn I think equals blind luck. So trades or blind luck. I think the FO has been pretty good at trades just no aces yet. If this team has any luck, it's not the good kind.

I agree with you with you. Canterino becoming an Ace is low. A solid 2 or 3. Yes. But he has lost so much time with injuries that players are starting to pass him. I mean, Varland, SWR, Ober, Ryan, and Sands have all reached the big leagues and are now throwing their hats in the ring for the chance at a rotation spot. 

As a young Twin's fan (29) I witnessed the Brad Radke and Johan Santana days and thought that was peak Twin's pitching. And for me, it was. I was spoiled growing up watching Johan magically control that change-up and make really good hitters look silly. I also thought watching Liriano throw that sharp Slider was awesome. Now, I look at our current pitchers and nothing they throw shows me "Ace" material outside of Duran. Now I'm not saying that our current starters haven't flashed signs of "Ace" material, but that's just it. They've only flashed a sign here or there. Nothing has been consistent. 

So in conclusion, the FO needs to take a gamble on a FA pitcher, or a make a trade for one. Maybe Mahle is that guy if he gets over the shoulder/arm thing. Who knows, but I look forward to 2023 with as much excitement as the next person.

[mk]

18 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Duran is probably the only pitcher we have that could be an ace. But I think that ship has sailed due to injury concerns. Canterino I think had a chance to become one. I agree with others that I can't see them spending $ to sign one. So blind luck seems like the most likely way.

In 2014 Jacob DeGrom (a 9th round pick in 2010) was the Mets 14th ranked prospect per MLB. Proof it can happen.

I always thought a deGrom comparison was interesting as he had an arm injury early on in his career in the minors. The difference is that he was so far off the prospect map for the Mets that they didn't feel like they had a lot to lose if he got injured again.

Duran, on the other hand, was moving up the prospect charts before missing a year of game development due to COVID-19 and then an injury severely limited his 2021 season. Duran was an essential part of the bullpen to start 2022 and by the end he was one of the best relievers in baseball. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think the two pitchers we presently have with Ace potential are Duran and SWR. Woods- Richardson has the pedigree and performed in the minors last year to the tune of a 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's only 22 and is already at the AAA level. While he isn't overpowering in the Justin Verlander sense, all of the scouting reports say he has a good feel for pitching and that his secondary stuff has the potential to be plus pitches. I think he has a pretty good chance of being a legit #1/#2 and an outside chance of reaching the Ace level. 

Duran is the guy who could legitimately be a #2/#3 guy starting next year and an Ace within 2 or 3 years IF he doesn't get hurt. I can see why the Twins don't want to risk such a dominant reliever but guys like this don't come along very often. If we could get Lopez to pitch like he did for the Orioles in the first half of 2022 or develop another high end closer, I'd definitely give Duran a chance to start and take the risk. Maybe Maeda can be that back end guy as his career winds down - change his contract to give him that incentive - and we can give Duran his shot in the rotation. I think it's worth the risk.    

[mk]

On 10/25/2022 at 2:28 PM, weitz41 said:

Canterino I think had a chance to become one. I agree with others that I can't see them spending $ to sign one. So blind luck seems like the most likely way

I would think with his yearly arm troubles that Canterino would be a prime candidate to move to the bullpen

[Linus]

3 hours ago, mk said:

I would think with his yearly arm troubles that Canterino would be a prime candidate to move to the bullpen

Canterino has zero chance of being an ace. He hasn’t pitched in the bigs and has a horrendous injury history. Likely outcome: serviceable reliever. 

[DJL44]

How does this article not mention Jose Berrios at all? Seems like a pretty glaring oversight.

[mk]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

How does this article not mention Jose Berrios at all? Seems like a pretty glaring oversight.

You’re right, I could have mentioned Berrios. He was drafted in the supplemental round by the previous front office. Advanced quickly through the minors and settled in as a what I would call a good #2. Eventually earning 2 all-star appearances for the Twins.

When the Twins knew they were not going to offer a fair market contract to Berrios the current FO traded him to the Blue Jays where he continued his solidly good production and then a 9th place finish in the 2021 Cy Young voting, Good, but still not what I’d consider an “Ace.”

The Twins received what many believed to be a great return at the time in prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. Maybe SWR develops into the Ace, time will tell.

Then came 2022 and early returns would say the FO was right not to give a big contract to Berrios. There is certainly still time to prove his 2022 season is the outlier, but would he be regarded higher than Sonny Gray? I think no. If the Twins had kept and resigned Berrios, they’d still be looking for their “Ace.”

[IndianaTwin]

I disagree with the analysis on the trades and free agent signings. While it's true that none of the trades or signing acquisitions turned into a ace, I don't think any of them were intended to.

You're right, for example, in that none of the free agent signings turned into an ace. But nor did they commit the amount of money needed to get an ace. In each of those deals, the player was signed to be somewhere between a No. 2 and a No. 5. In a number of cases, the guy indeed served his purpose. Pineda, etc.

Similarly, in none of the trades did they give up what's required to get an "ace" (with the notable exception that the jury's still out on Petty). In terms of MLB success, the most they've traded away was Graterol, who would have helped the Twins in the time since he's been traded. Even so, he's not yet reached (and it seems doubtful that he will) the level that suggests he can be traded for ace-level talent.

I think the bigger conclusion is that, for better or worse, the current Twins brass has not prioritized getting an "ace" to the degree that some fans would like.

I say, for better or worse, in that a signing at $15M (which you used as the threshold) is still a significant risk, both in the signing itself and in how it affects payroll flexibility. In last year's class, for example, several of the signings would have been worth it. Eduardo Rodriguez and Noah Syndergaard (missing from the list at a $21M signing), not so much. You could also arguably put Yusei Kikuchi and Alex Wood in the not-so-much category in that, while they signed for slightly less than $15M per year, the Twins would have had to pay close to $15M to get the signing.

 

[Trov]

Sometimes it is just the right fit for the right team too.  I mean look at Lance Lynn, he was terrible for us, most likely he was out of shape due to late signing, but it was the worst of his career between us and the Yankees in 2018.  Then he follows that up with 3 of his best years of his career, or at least back to his expected level.  This year not nearly as good.  Other guys have outlying years over time as well.

The issue is, pitching is super hard to predict long term future.  Injuries derail many careers, or guys fall off the cliff very quickly, after many years of success.   Only HOF level pitchers tend to be Ace level into their 30's, and they are very few and far between.  

I have said for years FA is the hardest way to get an Ace, at least for long term because normally they regress a ton into their 30's.  Sure you can point to Verlander, Scherzer and a few others, but for every one of them you can see several that failed in their 30's, at least compared to what they did pre free agency. 

I am not saying do not try to get one, but they are hard to project in draft.  I mean you mention Greene as a possible ace, which he has the overall stuff to develop into that, but his first year is not ace level outputs.  Gore did even worse.  Wright, now in 5th year pitching in majors had a 21 win season, but his numbers outside of that are fringe ace like.  

Overall my point is finding an reliable ace is very hard to do, and I cannot think of a single team that can always seem to find one. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 10/24/2022 at 6:11 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

How sure are you that the Twins won’t stretch Duran back out over the next couple seasons?

He wants to start, the Rotation is rather thin next year (‘24). Hints at reducing payroll for ‘23…. Seems like ‘23 is a punt year anyways…

why not stretch him out?

Pitching health is a continual risk!!! That said, Duran was maybe our most effective player on the roster. If it ain’t broke……..Duran needs to anchor the pen & we need to be happy with that as a decision. There are a whole bunch of guys out there that can help improve our Rotation……no need for experiments that add health risk & mess up our bullpen effectiveness.

[DJL44]

If Berrios didn't qualify as an ace then Rodon doesn't either. You're basically looking for a Hall of Fame level pitcher and the Twins have produced 3 of them in 100 years - Walter Johnson, Bert Blyleven and Johan Santana.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Pitching health is a continual risk!!! That said, Duran was maybe our most effective player on the roster. If it ain’t broke……..Duran needs to anchor the pen & we need to be happy with that as a decision. There are a whole bunch of guys out there that can help improve our Rotation……no need for experiments that add health risk & mess up our bullpen effectiveness.

Better pitchers pitching more innings is preferred to worse pitchers pitching more innings, agreed?

who are the pitchers that can improve the rotation? Are they better than Duran? Is the FO willing to invest what it takes to get them?

are there relievers available better than Lopez?

Would the FO risk a $5M or $10M one to two year contract for a very good reliever vs $25M+ Per year for 4-7 years for a starter?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Better pitchers pitching more innings is preferred to worse pitchers pitching more innings, agreed?

who are the pitchers that can improve the rotation? Are they better than Duran? Is the FO willing to invest what it takes to get them?

are there relievers available better than Lopez?

Would the FO risk a $5M or $10M one to two year contract for a very good reliever vs $25M+ Per year for 4-7 years for a starter?

FO’s Gotta be willing to spend right where you suggested……$8million for a real bullpen arm for 2 years………..$22 - $25 million for 4 years for a starter with good stuff and some recent success.

With 2021 arm problems for Duran & 2022 success in key bullpen roll……2023 closer roll is where I see his most value. Dropping Maeda into the bullpen & signing 1 new back end talent really gets us to a solid pen! 

Maybe Paddock - probably Mahle along with Gray, Ober, Ryan, 1 guy from farm system earns a spot, and a front end acquisition gives us some options and depth on the staff.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

FO’s Gotta be willing to spend right where you suggested……$8million for a real bullpen arm for 2 years………..$22 - $25 million for 4 years for a starter with good stuff and some recent success.

With 2021 arm problems for Duran & 2022 success in key bullpen roll……2023 closer roll is where I see his most value. Dropping Maeda into the bullpen & signing 1 new back end talent really gets us to a solid pen! 

Maybe Paddock - probably Mahle along with Gray, Ober, Ryan, 1 guy from farm system earns a spot, and a front end acquisition gives us some options and depth on the staff.

That gets you a very average at best rotation with a good pen but no “Ace”

$100m might get you Rodon. We have yet to see the Twins drop that dough on a pitcher, Rodon is a good starter with tons of injury risk, and little upside.

If you aren’t willing to risk making an Ace and clearly aren’t willing to buy an Ace, are you going to get an Ace?

[Original_JB]

Looking at the stats over the last 6-7 years, the number of SP's that make 30-32 starts a year and average 5 1/2 innings per start have been dwindling (from around 70 guys in 2014, going down and seemingly leveling off at around 40).  So, really, just averaging a little over 1 SP per team.  Is this due to injury? Decrease in the 'quality' of pitchers in the league? Or, since even the very best pitchers, "Aces" if you will, are seeing their innings per start decreasing; is it that they are unable to fully overcome what analytics are 'suggesting' the Managers do?  Essentially saying, even the best pitchers are affected detrimentally by the "3rd time through the order".  So do you really want an "Ace" at "Ace" pay, or do you want a "Bulldog"? If you notice, Berrios, as poor as his numbers were, still made 32 starts and averaged over 5 innings per start. I would argue that we should be looking for (stressing) durability and good control over raw power in our SPs. Especially with the automated strike zone coming, we should be looking for guys with good command and get guys out by fooling them and keeping them off balance (which is what Johan Santana did with his circle change), as opposed to trying to overpower everyone. 

[Battle ur tail off]

17 hours ago, Linus said:

Canterino has zero chance of being an ace. He hasn’t pitched in the bigs and has a horrendous injury history. Likely outcome: serviceable reliever. 

Possibly you are right. And to be honest, this is probably the smartest route to take with him. His stuff is better than anyone in the Twins system except Duran. Deceptive delivery also. My guess if he can stay healthy, he will be a bullpen HAMMER. This is the guy I most want to see get healthy and up to help the Twins. Watching clips, he looks dynamic.

[Battle ur tail off]

On 10/26/2022 at 10:55 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the two pitchers we presently have with Ace potential are Duran and SWR. Woods- Richardson has the pedigree and performed in the minors last year to the tune of a 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's only 22 and is already at the AAA level. While he isn't overpowering in the Justin Verlander sense, all of the scouting reports say he has a good feel for pitching and that his secondary stuff has the potential to be plus pitches. I think he has a pretty good chance of being a legit #1/#2 and an outside chance of reaching the Ace level. 

Duran is the guy who could legitimately be a #2/#3 guy starting next year and an Ace within 2 or 3 years IF he doesn't get hurt. I can see why the Twins don't want to risk such a dominant reliever but guys like this don't come along very often. If we could get Lopez to pitch like he did for the Orioles in the first half of 2022 or develop another high end closer, I'd definitely give Duran a chance to start and take the risk. Maybe Maeda can be that back end guy as his career winds down - change his contract to give him that incentive - and we can give Duran his shot in the rotation. I think it's worth the risk.    

I think you are right with SWR, he has the POTENTIAL to be a #1-2 guy.

To be a real ace though, IMO you need at least one HAMMER pitch or exceptional command though and from what I have watched none of his pitches look to have that kind of profile about them.

If he can improve his changeup to make it that kind of pitch I would be 100% on board. 

Agree on Duran 100%. He has that hammer type stuff. Can he stretch out without getting himself injured? If so, I think you instantly have possibly a top 10 starter in all of baseball. That said, is it worth the risk of injury? He's unhittable out of the bullpen and a huge weapon on a team that loves to use their BP and doesn't care much for their starters.

[Muppet]

Holy cow. If you look at Stephen Strasburg's stats, it looks like the Nats have paid him more than $100m to pitch 30 innings over the past 3 years. That's the kind of luck the Twins would have if they spent everything on an ace. 

I like (in theory) the strategy of having pitchers pitch fewer innings. It would seem that more less-than-ace pitchers might perform better if not going the couple of extra innings after they wear down. But that strategy clearly isn't working when they are replaced by 1 inning relievers maxing out at 6-7 pitchers throwing every night. I'd like to see what happens when 3 above average pitchers can complete a game.  

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That gets you a very average at best rotation with a good pen but no “Ace”

$100m might get you Rodon. We have yet to see the Twins drop that dough on a pitcher, Rodon is a good starter with tons of injury risk, and little upside.

If you aren’t willing to risk making an Ace and clearly aren’t willing to buy an Ace, are you going to get an Ace?

Little upside? From Gleeman's Athletic article today: "Among pitchers with at least 50 starts in the past two years, (Rodon) was first in strikeout rate (12.2/9), second in OPS against (.567), and fourth in ERA (2.67)." Rodon has been arguably a top 3 pitcher in all of baseball the last 2 years. If that's not upside I don't know what is. He's very much an injury risk, but he absolutely has Ace upside, and has been an Ace for 2 years now.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

That said, is it worth the risk of injury? He's unhittable out of the bullpen and a huge weapon on a team that loves to use their BP and doesn't care much for their starters.

I don't see a reduced injury risk pitching Duran out of the bullpen. Relievers get injured all the time. If he's pitching there's an injury risk. Might as well get as many innings as possible while he's healthy.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Little upside? From Gleeman's Athletic article today: "Among pitchers with at least 50 starts in the past two years, (Rodon) was first in strikeout rate (12.2/9), second in OPS against (.567), and fourth in ERA (2.67)." Rodon has been arguably a top 3 pitcher in all of baseball the last 2 years. If that's not upside I don't know what is. He's very much an injury risk, but he absolutely has Ace upside, and has been an Ace for 2 years now.

Fair enough, he’s an ace

if the Twins were to sign him, would they get more (upside) from him than what we’ve seen? The same? Less (downside)?

My assumption is the same at best (still an ace) or injured. Injury is likely which is why he’s affordable for the Twins.