The Sonny Gray Threshold: Searching for a Real Rotation Upgrade

[tony&rodney]

Call Miami and offer Larnach, Jeffers, Mahle, J. Lopez, and Miller for P. Lopez and Cabrera. Maybe add a milb pitcher like Legumina. Sign Rodon for 5/$125 million and then Ryan can be your #3 and Gray can be your #5.

[Doctor Gast]

Although it's not impossible it's very difficult to land that caliber of SP via FA. We just don't have the $ or the conditions that attracts them. Our best bet is trade, I like teams like maybe MIA (Lopez), CO (Marquez)or MIL (Woodruff).   Because they aren't looking at rebuilding (prospects) but at reinforcing weak areas (veterans or players MLB ready),

Development is another way. When has that ever happened? Maybe Blyleven? which we traded or Camilo Pasqual? The last time we really had an ace was Johan Santana. We got him via rule 5 draft & was lucky we had a key to unluck him with the circle change up. Having a keen eye and insight is our best bet for a repeat.

 I like the rotation we presently have, Mahle, I'm assuming that he'd be ready to go coming spring, since there was no impingement detected(he more likely had a dead arm). I expect both Gray, Ober & Ryan to be healthier and pitch more total innings this '23 season. Because we'll have a normal spring trainingI expect Maeda if he has  close to a Archer type '22 season we'll be ahead in the game. I'd like a (Lopez), Mahle, Gray & Ryan rotation with a rotating # 5th SP in Ober. Varland, Winder and later in the season Maeda & SWR. When they aren't SPing they should be liberally used in long relief. We also have Sands, Paddack, Dobnak & Smeltzer to plug in when neccessary in long relief.

I see a baseball game as a relay race with a long distance runner (SP)+ mid distance runner (long RP) + sprinter (short RP). Last season our sprinting group was by far our weakess group yet their plan was long distance+ sprinter + sprinter + sprinter + sprinter and mid distance runner was eliminated. This strategy was easy to see the sprinting group would faulter quickly resulted in lost races. So they made the long distance runner run an extra lap. The long distance runners started to get injured & slower resulting in more lost races. The mid distance runner (long RP) was never used all season resulting in a losing season again. 

Hopefully our short RPs will be much better eventually, our rotation will be stronger but the secret to winning is capitalizing on our strong long RPs. Management needs to communicate this that all SPs, long RPs and short RPs are all crucial in winning the game. If a SP is pulled before that SP thinks he's ready, it's not a slap in the face, it's a team effort. The goal isn't trying to squeezing every inning you can out of a SP, it's putting up quality- elite innings out of your pitching staff.

At the end of the season, you'll have won more games, pitchers will be more rested, healthier, happier & hungrier. Pitchers will be evaluated in how many elite innings they can count on each pitcher to enter the post season.

 

[Harrison Greeley III]

If the minimization of plate appearances 3rd through the order is going to continue as a priority of this front office, then forget spending big on starting pitching. Because why pay someone the Correa money to go through the order just twice? Bullpen depth is the #1 priority for this team. What they did with their bullpen in 2022 was unsustainable and it showed in the win total as the season played out. If the bullpen is to be depended upon for 12-15 outs so frequently, then so be it. I get the 'why.' The Twins' problem is the current 'how' is garbage.

There are 2 things I hope they consider.

1. They have 2 guardrails in place for relievers. They usually pull them after 1 inning and they try not to pitch them 2 days in a row. This causes the frequency of relievers warming up to increase. That is very bad for effectiveness in the long run. I remember Matt Belisle talking about this as a reason why relievers preferred pitching in the AL. You had to warm up constantly without a DH which hurt health and effectiveness.

I would favor more 6 out appearances and leave the avoidance of 2 days in a row in tact. If Kenta Maeda is to become a swingman again, fine. If he can get 6-9 outs or that 3rd time through the order twice a week, that could be a huge long run boost. They have others suited for this role in Varland and Winder. Maybe they could make an Archer type signing with this role in mind. 

2. If they remain true to the 'only twice thru' strategy, it is time to consider a 4 man rotation. This would allow for an extra roster slot to be used in a swingman rotation. The pitching staff could look like this. 

SP, SP, SP, SP
Swing, Swing, Swing
RP, RP, RP, RP, RP, RP

or 

Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober
Varland, Winder, Maeda
Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax, Sands, FA

This puts them in a position to use the bullpen for 6 outs a game more regularly and 12-15 outs less regularly, allowing a better regimen for relievers throughout the course of a season.

Last year Levine said they needed to be creative on pitching solutions. If they're not going to spend big on pitching, I say try it this way. 
 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Your solution is brilliant!  Just spend $90M of a $60M budget on three guys (who obviously must not have any voice in the matter). Perfect.

Thanks for sharing.  I do understand that contacts require a meeting of the minds of two or more individuals and/or entities. However, in my reign as pretend FO/owner, I chose to spend the $90 million.  But if I can't afford it, or if Gary Sanchez signs elsewhere, then I'll sign Leon instead of Sanchez, and I'll just about be at $60 million. I love this website. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm still predicting my gut feeling that Sonny Gray will request a trade out of the twins organization  ...

 

No way Gray leaves, because I heard he was addicted to Walleye Juicy Lucys. By the way , we have a restaurant named Jucy Lucy's Restaurant in Asheville, NC 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Twins want a pitcher to surpasses the Sonny Gray threshold they will most likely have to develop him. 

 

The Twins must also "keep" the developing pitchers and not trade them away (Petty, Graterol, Gil, Pressly, Berrios, Hendricks)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Wait for the kids to develop.  We have enough in the pipeline that one or two of them should develop into something better than Sonny Gray.  Once they do, then sign them to long term contracts.

I've been waiting for the pipeline to produce ever since I started reading TD. I'm still waiting. Our two best young pitchers, Ryan and Duran, are adopted Twins. 

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm still predicting my gut feeling that Sonny Gray will request a trade out of the twins organization  ...

 

Wouldnt suprise me.  He was obviously really pd-off about the whole 2 times through the batting order strategy.

[jmlease1]

8 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I've been waiting for the pipeline to produce ever since I started reading TD. I'm still waiting. Our two best young pitchers, Ryan and Duran, are adopted Twins. 

Give the twins a little credit; Duran had never pitched above low A before joining the Twins, and he was in their system about as long as he was in the D-backs. That's still a development success story, when you can move a pitcher from low-A to MLB success.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

2. If they remain true to the 'only twice thru' strategy, it is time to consider a 4 man rotation. This would allow for an extra roster slot to be used in a swingman rotation. The pitching staff could look like this. 

SP, SP, SP, SP
Swing, Swing, Swing
RP, RP, RP, RP, RP, RP

They actually used Duran for multiple inning stints quite often and rarely had him pitch back-to-back games. 

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Considering the Twins used him perfectly and got the most out of him, it would be hard to see another organization use him differently.

Perfect example of not seeing the forest through the trees.  The Twins limited Gray's innings to when he would be most effective and it worked (regardless of Gray's complaining to the media).  Gray just needs to keep his head down and continue to pitch well for his next contract.

I wouldn't have responded but you mocked me when I am having some fun with my prediction  ...

You may feel the twins used him perfectly  and other teams would use him the same  ... 

Sonny Gray  may not see it that way as a veteran  , as a veteran pitcher he wants more say in the matter  , if he is cruising along with a 1 hitter  through 5th inning and twice through  batting order  , he wants more innings  , if he is getting knocked around he mostly likely will agree with the manager that it's not his night and take a seat ...

I am looking through the forest and I see the trees and the lake too ...

I would not play for this manager's/FO'S  plan ,,, 

 

I still predict that my gut tells me sonny gray will ask for a trade , and my gut definitely tells me he will not sign an extension ...

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I wonder if the Reds would have considered trading Castillo last winter for a package of Petty, Steer, and the other prospects we sent off at the deadline. Or throw in Rogers, since they seemed set on trading him, or throw in a Varland/Ober/Wallner since those guys are the new heartthrobs.    And then the extension Castillo signed with the Mariners was in the ballpark of the Berrios and Wheeler contracts.

From my point of view, the Twins usually pass when there are chances to get guys better than Gray. 

[Harrison Greeley III]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They actually used Duran for multiple inning stints quite often and rarely had him pitch back-to-back games. 

I know, 14 out of 57 appearances. Great.

I'm mainly referring to an example like August 3rd.

Or September 15th

This is what the Twins had in mind to win. To their credit, they did win these games. They went 2 rounds through with the SP. Then the bullpen got 12-15 outs. There was a degree of success, but not nearly often enough to justify the strategy. I'd get a bad feeling as Dick Bremer would congratulate the bullpen on such a great job on games like this. It's not going to work long run in the course of a season to consistently use 5-6 pitchers to win. 

It can work in a playoff run, but usually that requires elite bullpen depth. But even then that's just a month. 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

SP, SP, SP, SP
Swing, Swing, Swing
RP, RP, RP, RP, RP, RP

Eventually a team that leans toward using starting pitchers less will experiment with a four man rotation. It seems inevitable. The Twins should consider this idea. The use of long relievers is dependent on having 3-4 middle innings pitchers who can throw effectively twice each week or every third or fourth day. This allows for 2-3 innings from the six short inning relief pitchers in the example. The potential problems are doubleheaders, rain delays, and those times when a pitcher is ineffective. Injuries are a constant as well. Short outings of 4-5 innings from a starting pitcher as a general practice puts a notable stress load on the pitching staff which results in predictable bad stretches. A real additional concern is that most starting pitchers do feel that the application of TTTO is poorly applied. The pitcher is pulled after five effective innings despite a scenario where inning six usually has batters 5-7 leading off the inning. The effect on morale is relatively unknown but we have seen the lack of enthusiasm from several Twins towards their manager. Finally, I believe the Twins need to add a minimum of two starting pitchers to slot in before Joe Ryan. Talent plays and it also carries a steep price.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I've been waiting for the pipeline to produce ever since I started reading TD. I'm still waiting. Our two best young pitchers, Ryan and Duran, are adopted Twins. 

Trades for minor leaguers is a critical part of the pipeline. The top three (by Fangraphs WAR) 26 and under pitchers were all acquired in trade in Alcantara, Cease and Galan. The 4th in the list Webb was drafted by the Giants in 2014 and they waited 7 years for him. Manoah is next on the list and he paid off for the Blue Jays quickly. The Twins never had a chance at him.

If trades for minor leaguers are not part of the pipeline I am not sure 5 years is a reasonable amount of time to expect it to be filled by pitchers acquired in the draft. The Guardians returned to first place with a very good starting rotation. Four of those starters were drafted in 2016 and the other in 2015. I think Falvey was with the Guardians when they were drafted. Clase was acquired in trade as was their 6th starter Pilkington.

I do agree that Gray is the bar for acquiring starters in free agency. I think they have developed enough near ready pitchers to fill the back end.

[USAFChief]

This offseason is the perfect example of why "wait till you are a player short to spend on a free agent" is folly.

 

$60m to spend and exactly one top free agent pitcher worth pursuing, and even he's had a history of injury. There's nobody to spend it on.

 

Sign talent whenever you can.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I wouldn't have responded but you mocked me when I am having some fun with my prediction  ...

You may feel the twins used him perfectly  and other teams would use him the same  ... 

Sonny Gray  may not see it that way as a veteran  , as a veteran pitcher he wants more say in the matter  , if he is cruising along with a 1 hitter  through 5th inning and twice through  batting order  , he wants more innings  , if he is getting knocked around he mostly likely will agree with the manager that it's not his night and take a seat ...

I am looking through the forest and I see the trees and the lake too ...

I would not play for this manager's/FO'S  plan ,,, 

 

I still predict that my gut tells me sonny gray will ask for a trade , and my gut definitely tells me he will not sign an extension ...

 

Apologies, I was actually referring to Gray not seeing the forest, not you.  No mocking intended.

I meant that it was Gray who was not seeing the bigger picture. The Twins were doing him a huge favor by limiting his innings and not going through the lineup the third time.  Gray's ERA is something like 10.00 the third time through.  By allowing him to be effective, they have raised his value should he wish to leave.

Tell him to keep his head down, do what he is told, produce another strong year, then he can go out and test the market

[Doctor Gast]

13 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I wonder if the Reds would have considered trading Castillo last winter for a package of Petty, Steer, and the other prospects we sent off at the deadline. Or throw in Rogers, since they seemed set on trading him, or throw in a Varland/Ober/Wallner since those guys are the new heartthrobs.    And then the extension Castillo signed with the Mariners was in the ballpark of the Berrios and Wheeler contracts.

From my point of view, the Twins usually pass when there are chances to get guys better than Gray. 

Off season '21 PIT offered us Musgrove for Larnach (IMO was a good deal), all the FO had to do was give a reasonable counter-offer with a 2-3 lesser prospects. But they let it pass and SD picked him up for peanuts. Here's a great opportunity that was laid in their laps & they slept on it. We had a far superior pitcher coaching than PIT & SD, Musgrove could've been better under us than what he has already done.

IMO our FO fail to see teams that are motivated to sell & capitalize on the situation. Besides PIT there other teams like Reds, Cubs & As were motivated. Those who struck 1st got the best deals. Even the Maeda trade, LAD was very motivated to move the disgruntal Maeda. We didn't have to trade our top pitching prospect.

Looking back it seems like most of the best trades has passed us by. But I'm satisfied with the Gray trade which is your benchmark. Hopefully this is a sign that this FO has woken .

[nicksaviking]

20 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I wouldn't have responded but you mocked me when I am having some fun with my prediction  ...

You may feel the twins used him perfectly  and other teams would use him the same  ... 

Sonny Gray  may not see it that way as a veteran  , as a veteran pitcher he wants more say in the matter  , if he is cruising along with a 1 hitter  through 5th inning and twice through  batting order  , he wants more innings  , if he is getting knocked around he mostly likely will agree with the manager that it's not his night and take a seat ...

I am looking through the forest and I see the trees and the lake too ...

I would not play for this manager's/FO'S  plan ,,, 

 

I still predict that my gut tells me sonny gray will ask for a trade , and my gut definitely tells me he will not sign an extension ...

 

You see a lot of MLB players demanding trades? Maybe it's happened recently, but I don't recall reading about it. There's 1200 players on the MLB rosters, It's unlikely that Sonny Gray is the most disgruntled of them all. He only averaged facing one extra batter a start his last two years in Cincinnati, it's not like the Twins were a colossal outlier for him; they basically used him the same way.

And the Twins pitching strategy seems to change year-to-year and pitcher-to-pitcher. No one knows how they'll use him or the other starters next season.

Besides, I wouldn't want to sign a 33-year-old pitcher to an extension anyway. 2023 seems to be about the exact right time to walk away from this union.

 

[tony&rodney]

On 10/24/2022 at 9:14 AM, DJL44 said:

Worst case they put him back in the bullpen where he has already proven he can contribute.

I know you already know this but worst case is that Jhoan ruins his arm and never pitches again. He does have some past history with arm issues. Just saying. 

 

[tony&rodney]

I hope Sonny Gray wins a Cy Young, as a Twin next year. I really do. That said, there is a part of me that has had a hard time getting behind Gray. He is so good  ... for 4 or 5 innings and then misses time for a leg, this, or that. Perhaps I miss something but Gray looks the part of someone we all liked - Odorizzi.  Good pitchers and fun to watch but best if they are your #4 guy. I guess the question then is, can the Twins do better and I don't have an answer for that . I hope so.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I know you already know this but worst case is that Jhoan ruins his arm and never pitches again. He does have some past history with arm issues. Just saying. 

Is there an increased risk of injury pitching in the rotation versus pitching in the bullpen? Is pitching back-to-back games more or less stressful than pitching 5 innings every 5th game?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Is there an increased risk of injury pitching in the rotation versus pitching in the bullpen? Is pitching back-to-back games more or less stressful than pitching 5 innings every 5th game?

The stress of pitching is quite individual. Every pitcher responds differently or in a way that corresponds to their body. Some guys can switch back and forth, but others cannot. A few can throw 10-25 pitches nearly every day and still others can only throw every 4-5 days. Conditioning an arm helps a few players but not all.

Duran could emerge as a rotation option and it would be fun to see his repertoire manage 100-120 pitch outings all year. Because Jhoan had a string of arm issues, the Twins transitioned him to the bullpen. He had a terrific year. It seems like the team is counting on Duran to fill an important role at the end of games. I would love to see him throw 200 innings as a starting pitcher; he is a big guy. There may be understandable reticence in risking that the past arm troubles reemerge with Duran switching to the rotation. Every coach and manager needs to be attuned to the foibles of each player's body. Duran looked comfortable on his new role this year right away. The Twins would need to sign a couple of significant relievers to gamble on moving Duran to the rotation.