Twins Trade Candidate: Max Kepler

[twinfan]

I like Kepler and hope the Twins keep him. But I would be curious as to how many hits any batter has lost to the shifts over the past 2-3 years and I hope the scouts are looking at this going into next year. A .220 hitter might get up to .250 since there won't be a shift anymore. Does this apply to Kepler? However, if he has some value that we can get a decent reliever for him, then I'd say bye-bye.

[gman]

13 hours ago, Fred said:

The new Jake Cave?

I hope better or trade him for a bag of rock salt as soon as possible.

[gman]

20 hours ago, RpR said:

They will do that in Spring Training and the Minors, NOT in the Majors where Wallner has already shown his fielding stinks.

Maybe they will something in spring training, but not too likely. I would expect next spring to focus on the training part mixed with finding out how physically healthy guys are.

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, twinfan said:

I like Kepler and hope the Twins keep him. But I would be curious as to how many hits any batter has lost to the shifts over the past 2-3 years and I hope the scouts are looking at this going into next year. A .220 hitter might get up to .250 since there won't be a shift anymore. Does this apply to Kepler? However, if he has some value that we can get a decent reliever for him, then I'd say bye-bye.

They could get better than a "decent reliever" with the salary saved but I am with you.  How about a good RP and invest the $8.5M elsewhere?  I would be OK with a good prospect of any kind (especially a catcher) and invest the $8.5M in pitching.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Trade him.  We've got several MLB ready replacements and have given him all the chances in the world to overcome his hitting deficiencies.  I do admit that he tried to hit to the left side beating the shift early last year but then seemed to give up mid-season.  He just does not adjust hitting-wise and I am not confident that he ever will.  I've also heard on G&G podcasts that the shift will not greatly improve his hitting results.

[MisstheBomba]

I just don’t think he enjoyed being here. Trade him for a shortstop.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not sure about all the hate.  You have a player that is outplaying his value on a relatively inexpensive contract.  He may not be the offensive player we would all like him to be, but he still is a valuable piece.  Two big things people are overlooking:

1) The change in shift rules will benefit him greatly.

2) It is basically a walk year for him, as he is playing for the team to pick up his option.

I would like to see them give RF to a more offensive player, and use Kepler as the OF super sub / Byron Buxton insurance in CF.

[dxpavelka]

On 10/24/2022 at 8:06 AM, Major League Ready said:

Since we "jettisoned" Rosario he has been below replacement level.  Please enlighten us as to how it was a mistake to jettison a replacement level player.  The premise we would have a shot at the post season had we kept a guy that performed worse than the players that replaced him is ridiculous.

The assortment of players we've run out to LF over the last two years has NOT outperformed what Rosario has done in it's entirety since he left.  And it certainly doesn't have a World Series ring or a post-season appearance to show for it.  Eddie also played with something this club has sorely lacked--heart.  Of course so did Nelson Cruz-got rid of him too.  AND, of course, we had ONE guy in the lineup this year who played with heart and he'll be gone too.

[mnfireman]

On 10/24/2022 at 11:03 PM, dxpavelka said:

The assortment of players we've run out to LF over the last two years has NOT outperformed what Rosario has done in it's entirety since he left.  And it certainly doesn't have a World Series ring or a post-season appearance to show for it.  Eddie also played with something this club has sorely lacked--heart.  Of course so did Nelson Cruz-got rid of him too.  AND, of course, we had ONE guy in the lineup this year who played with heart and he'll be gone too.

Unfortunately heart doesn't win games, divisions or titles; talent does. Cruz has been below league average since being traded and Rosario has been dreadfully below average. 

[Riverbrian]

How many teams are looking to improve a corner outfielder spot with a guy that just produced a .666 OPS for 8.5 million dollars? 

I looked at all 30 rosters and I could only find one team. 

The Minnesota Twins. 

 

[jorgenswest]

Minnesota right fielders ranked 18th with 1.5 Fangraphs WAR. Kepler contributed 1.8 of the 1.5. His 1.8 would have ranked 16th by team.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Minnesota right fielders ranked 18th with 1.5 Fangraphs WAR. Kepler contributed 1.8 of the 1.5. His 1.8 would have ranked 16th by team.

According to Fangraphs how did Nick Gordon do? This question is for anyone to answer. 

[jorgenswest]

42 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

According to Fangraphs how did Nick Gordon do? This question is for anyone to answer. 

More of Gordon’s WAR came as a 2B or CF though he had more plate appearances as a left fielder. He was quite valuable in a utility role and would probably be more valuable as a regular up the middle.

In my search I saw Jake Cave led Twin left fielders in WAR slightly ahead of Gordon and Larnach. You are right about the need at the corners.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

More of Gordon’s WAR came as a 2B or CF though he had more plate appearances as a left fielder. He was quite valuable in a utility role and would probably be more valuable as a regular up the middle.

In my search I saw Jake Cave led Twin left fielders in WAR slightly ahead of Gordon and Larnach. You are right about the need at the corners.

This info isn't going to sell me on Wins above replacement. It will probably cause me to go to war with WAR. ? 

Better defensive metrics at two harder defensive position (2B and CF) than an easier defensive position such as LF and the results state that Jake Cave is slightly ahead of Nick Gordon in LF despite 17 less games played at that position.  

4 out of 5 chances are routine. 

233 total chances for Max Kepler over 115 games. Roughly 2 chances per game. That's 1 non-routine play every 3rd game or so to separate himself defensively from his peers. 

216 Total Chances for Nick Gordon over 136 games. Roughly 1.5 chances per game so 1 non-routine play every 3rd game or so to separate himself defensively from his peers. 

92 Total Chances for Jake Cave over 54 games. Roughly 1.7 chances per game so 1 non-routine play every 3rd game or so to separate himself defensively from his peers.  

1 defensive play every third game is enough to elevate Jake Cave over Nick Gordon?

You also have to assume that neither Max Kepler or Jake Cave is succeeding at every non-routine chance while Nick Gordon is failing at every non-routine chance. 

Is it possible that WAR is misleading and groaning from the weight of small sample size zone rating statistics? 

 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

How many teams are looking to improve a corner outfielder spot with a guy that just produced a .666 OPS for 8.5 million dollars? 

I looked at all 30 rosters and I could only find one team. 

The Minnesota Twins. 

 

Actually, The "collection of trash" (not your quote) that replaced him have all outperformed him with the exception of Cave.  Their OPS and wRC+ is as follows.  Rosario has an OPS of 675 and a wRC+ of 82 since he left.  All of these players outperformed Rosario for $8M less.  I will take this collection of guys and the $8M toward an RP or Mitch Hannigar all day long.  This coming from a guy who was once a big Rosario fan. 

Kyle Garlick – 728 103

Nick Gordon – 711 /101  (all positions)

Trevor Larnach – 687 / 95

Brent Roker – 688 / 91

Rob Refsnyder – 663 / 88

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Actually, The "collection of trash" (not your quote) that replaced him have all outperformed him with the exception of Cave.  Their OPS and wRC+ is as follows.  Rosario has an OPS of 675 and a wRC+ of 82 since he left.  All of these players outperformed Rosario for $8M less.  I will take this collection of guys and the $8M toward an RP or Mitch Hannigar all day long.  This coming from a guy who was once a big Rosario fan. 

Kyle Garlick – 728 103

Nick Gordon – 711 /101  (all positions)

Trevor Larnach – 687 / 95

Brent Roker – 688 / 91

Rob Refsnyder – 663 / 88

I was referring to Kepler but it works for Rosario after last season as well. 

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Unfortunately heart doesn't win games, divisions or titles; talent does. Cruz has been below league average since being traded and Rosario has been dreadfully below average. 

As proof of your concept I submit the last two seasons.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I posted this elsewhere, but I think it is relevant here:

This is from an Analyst article in August 2022.   Kepler should see some improvement.  It basically says Kepler's avg would go from 2020 to today would go from .220 to .270, a 50 point increase.  If that were the case, we would be talking extension, not trade bait.  You have to keep him to see if he rebounds.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/who-figures-to-benefit-the-most-if-the-defensive-shift-is-banned/ 

[Riverbrian]

27 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I posted this elsewhere, but I think it is relevant here:

This is from an Analyst article in August 2022.   Kepler should see some improvement.  It basically says Kepler's avg would go from 2020 to today would go from .220 to .270, a 50 point increase.  If that were the case, we would be talking extension, not trade bait.  You have to keep him to see if he rebounds.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/who-figures-to-benefit-the-most-if-the-defensive-shift-is-banned/ 

I've been as hard on Kepler as anyone and I agree with you. He should get a roster spot to see if he the shift helps him. I don't believe he will fetch enough in return to justify shipping him out of town so we might as well give him a roster spot.  

However... I do not want the Twins coming out of the off-season with the attitude that we have Kepler so we are covered in RF.

Bring in a solid bat and let Kepler compete for playing time with Larnach, Kirilloff and Gordon.

Give him more playing time if he does what you suggest is possible.  I do hold out hope that it is possible. 

 

[RpR]

32 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I

Bring in a solid bat and let Kepler compete for playing time with Larnach, Kirilloff and Gordon.

 

 

Neither Kirilloff or Gordon should be allowed any where near Right Field, but Larnach has good numbers , so far., yet Kepler's fielding ability is very, very important.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Neither Kirilloff or Gordon should be allowed any where near Right Field, but Larnach has good numbers , so far., yet Kepler's fielding ability is very, very important.

You see, this isn't going to work with me. Sadly, Kepler's fielding ability didn't produce enough runs for our offense. Celestino also couldn't defensively put runs on our board. ?

The Phillies have a supposedly bad defense. Seems to be working OK so far.  

You can put an extra "very" in front of  "very important" but right now... I'm struggling with "important". 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You see, this isn't going to work with me. Sadly, Kepler's fielding ability didn't produce enough runs for our offense. Celestino also couldn't defensively put runs on our board. ?

The Phillies have a supposedly bad defense. Seems to be working OK so far.  

You can put an extra "very" in front of  "very important" but right now... I'm struggling with "important". e

Oakland beat the Twins without a hit when Arraez threw an easy out into Right Field; DEFENSE is VERY impotant to the Twins which they have proven since the Bomba squad left and it is not comng back.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Oakland beat the Twins without a hit when Arraez threw an easy out into Right Field; DEFENSE is VERY impotant to the Twins which they have proven since the Bomba squad left and it is not comng back.

Kepler's defense wouldn't have helped that either. 

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

I see what you are saying. I do remember that game and Kepler's defense wouldn't have helped in that game either.

I still want a hitter. 

Will do no good if one of the few stand-out defense players leaves; that would leave Buxton, when he plays, Urshela at Third, if he stays, Correa at Short Stop if he stays. Lose those two and the infield will be like have the defensive ability of Jeffers at every where except Center Field and to a degree Second Base.

I.E. run at will.

[Riverbrian]

52 minutes ago, RpR said:

Will do no good if one of the few stand-out defense players leaves; that would leave Buxton, when he plays, Urshela at Third, if he stays, Correa at Short Stop if he stays. Lose those two and the infield will be like have the defensive ability of Jeffers at every where except Center Field and to a degree Second Base.

I.E. run at will.

Just like everybody went from the 1st to 3rd on Ben Revere's arm.