If Twins break bank on Correa, how will fans treat him at end of contract?

[Trov]

First, I am not saying we should or should not sign Correa to a long term deal.  I expect he will be seeking an 8 to 10 year deal, around 30 mil or more a year.  When thinking about the expected contract it got me thinking about Joe Mauer and his contract he signed with Twins, his 8 year 184 million, for 23 a year.  Not top the of market back then, but pretty high.  Correa is expected to seek top of market.  

When we signed Joe, just about every fan was happy, but after the first couple of years, when injuries set in, and natural age regression, many fans started to get upset that he was making so much but producing so little, which when you sign a guy into mid-30's you are expecting that.  Now, Joe's injuries may have played much more of a roll in his regression, the shifting teams started to do, than age regression, but he clearly dropped off in production over second half of contract.  

I bring this up because most players, regress greatly in the mid-30's, some closer to 34 others hold on to say 36, and some mega stars can hold up, but they are very few and far between.  Even the HOF players like Albert, have great regression in mid to late 30's.  So, if we sign CC to even an 8 year 30 mil a year deal, which I think is on the low end and minimum he is seeking, he will be 36 at end of the deal.  

I cannot say how much he regresses, or when it happens, but it will happen.  If it happens around the age 33 to 34 season, how will fans react to the last couple of seasons where he is moved off of SS most likely and not putting up offense you want from a 3B?  Will the fans say okay we got some good years, or will they be upset like with Joe on his production to cost?  What if it is 10 year deal where he will be signed to age 38 season, where for sure the last few years he will be draining money from the team for subpar production?  

I am not knocking Correa, and would be happy to sign him for the right price and length, but for fans that want to break the bank, sign for 10 years, I want you to ask yourself, how will you feel when he is overpaid?  We know it will happen at some time, the question for each player is which season. Should we front load the contract where he will be of greater value to not have the overpay so much, or since payrolls should go up should be back load it?  Should we keep it equal?  Being the window is hopefully now to next couple years, should just worry about 5 years from now 5 years from now?  

We clearly can afford him, since we did.  The question is how much are we willing to accept bad money down the road, and can accept that? 

[nicksaviking]

Based on how the position goes, he'd probably be moved off of short in 2-3 years. Fans will complain about that.

And based on how aging works, he'd probably be less effectively offensively in 4-5 years. Fans will really complain about that.

But you're paying for the near future because the further out you try to predict, the less reliable it is. So do it, deal with the whatever happens in 5 years, 5 years from now. Salaries and payrolls keep increasing, and just like the Joe Mauer contract, fans will complain, but it won't have much of an actual impact on how the team manages itself in the long run. The Twins just have no other sizeable contracts to deal with in the immediate future and fewer holes to fill than one would expect for a sub .500 team. If they won't do long term deals for pitchers, this seems like the obvious spot to spend.

[bunsen82]

They won't so not even worth thinking about it.  They may pay 1 year for Correa or another SS to try to do the same thing this year,  give a potential trade chip while they wait for the young guns to take over.  

[chpettit19]

The fans as a whole will complain far less if they win. They complained about the Mauer deal because it was an easy thing to point to as the reason why the team was awful for the end of it. If the Twins are winning playoff games while Correa is 35, playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans won't care so much. If they're finishing 3rd in the division while Correa is 35 playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans will point at him as the reason the team is bad. As almost everything in pro sports goes, it's all about winning. Win and the fans don't do much booing.

[weitz41]

I'm hoping they resign him and I'll be thrilled.  But agree in the a few years at SS plan. I'll guess at 33mil x 8. Add in some change to make it 300 Mil for his time with the Twins. Moving to 3rd then OF and DH over the course of the contract. As for Maurer's contract I think it's fair to say things are a bit different today. Then catcher was treated like concrete filled posts in a parking lot. Short stops are treated like a unicorn today. The outcomes hopefully should be quite a bit different towards the end on the contract.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, Trov said:

First, I am not saying we should or should not sign Correa to a long term deal.  I expect he will be seeking an 8 to 10 year deal, around 30 mil or more a year.  When thinking about the expected contract it got me thinking about Joe Mauer and his contract he signed with Twins, his 8 year 184 million, for 23 a year.  Not top the of market back then, but pretty high.  Correa is expected to seek top of market.  

When we signed Joe, just about every fan was happy, but after the first couple of years, when injuries set in, and natural age regression, many fans started to get upset that he was making so much but producing so little, which when you sign a guy into mid-30's you are expecting that.  Now, Joe's injuries may have played much more of a roll in his regression, the shifting teams started to do, than age regression, but he clearly dropped off in production over second half of contract.  

I bring this up because most players, regress greatly in the mid-30's, some closer to 34 others hold on to say 36, and some mega stars can hold up, but they are very few and far between.  Even the HOF players like Albert, have great regression in mid to late 30's.  So, if we sign CC to even an 8 year 30 mil a year deal, which I think is on the low end and minimum he is seeking, he will be 36 at end of the deal.  

I cannot say how much he regresses, or when it happens, but it will happen.  If it happens around the age 33 to 34 season, how will fans react to the last couple of seasons where he is moved off of SS most likely and not putting up offense you want from a 3B?  Will the fans say okay we got some good years, or will they be upset like with Joe on his production to cost?  What if it is 10 year deal where he will be signed to age 38 season, where for sure the last few years he will be draining money from the team for subpar production?  

I am not knocking Correa, and would be happy to sign him for the right price and length, but for fans that want to break the bank, sign for 10 years, I want you to ask yourself, how will you feel when he is overpaid?  We know it will happen at some time, the question for each player is which season. Should we front load the contract where he will be of greater value to not have the overpay so much, or since payrolls should go up should be back load it?  Should we keep it equal?  Being the window is hopefully now to next couple years, should just worry about 5 years from now 5 years from now?  

We clearly can afford him, since we did.  The question is how much are we willing to accept bad money down the road, and can accept that? 

Maybe someone in the TD family of experts can explain to the rest of us, how much different a person's life would be if he were paid 300 million instead of 200 million dollars?  Just asking. How much is "enough"?

[ashbury]

13 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Maybe someone in the TD family of experts can explain to the rest of us, how much different a person's life would be if he were paid 300 million instead of 200 million dollars?  Just asking. How much is "enough"?

In the blurb at this site about the Diamond Awards, you'll see mention made of the Correa Family Foundation.  How much is "enough", to fund a foundation that presumably does good in the community?  I'd say there is no ceiling on that - earn what you can for it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

If you read the blurb at this site about the Diamond Awards, you'd see mention made of the Correa Family Foundation.  How much is "enough", to fund a foundation that presumably does good in the community?  I'd say there is no ceiling on that - earn what you can for it.

Good point ashbury. Good point. 

[ICTwin25]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The fans as a whole will complain far less if they win. They complained about the Mauer deal because it was an easy thing to point to as the reason why the team was awful for the end of it. If the Twins are winning playoff games while Correa is 35, playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans won't care so much. If they're finishing 3rd in the division while Correa is 35 playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans will point at him as the reason the team is bad. As almost everything in pro sports goes, it's all about winning. Win and the fans don't do much booing.

Great point. People forget how much certain players are making if you win. I saw a decent amount of tweets on Gerrit Cole before facing the Guardians in Game 4. Folks were like "Show us you earned them pinstripes" and "Yanks are paying you for moments like this". He delivered and nobody cared about his contract.

[Squirrel]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The fans as a whole will complain far less if they win. They complained about the Mauer deal because it was an easy thing to point to as the reason why the team was awful for the end of it. If the Twins are winning playoff games while Correa is 35, playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans won't care so much. If they're finishing 3rd in the division while Correa is 35 playing 3B/DH and hitting to a 105 OPS+ while making 35 mil a year the fans will point at him as the reason the team is bad. As almost everything in pro sports goes, it's all about winning. Win and the fans don't do much booing.

Glad you said ‘as a whole’ because some will complain no matter what. Every strike out, win or lose, will be waaaaa, waaaaaa, waaaaaa. I’m not sure if it’s a Minnesota thing or what, but some will say no one is worth it. I mean Minnesota modesty is a thing. Or, if the Twins do manage to make a big splash with anyone, it will be the wrong someone. Because it always has to be something.

At some point I think you do have to push it all in and just go for it, mid-market or not. We keep waiting for Lewis or Lee or whichever prospect shows promise, and we will be waiting for never.

[DJL44]

I hope it ends just as badly as it did with Mauer - they retire his number, induct him into the Twins Hall of Fame and have Carlos Correa Day at Target Field to honor him.

[Rick Blaine]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:21 AM, DJL44 said:

I hope it ends just as badly as it did with Mauer - they retire his number, induct him into the Twins Hall of Fame and have Carlos Correa Day at Target Field to honor him.

Curious, can the Twins negotiate with Carlos now or do they have wait until he officially declares his intentions?   Right now he would be a current player getting an extension. 

If they are allowed to be in contact with him, do you think they are.   Or do you think they will just wait and sees what transpires.  

[goulik]

It all depends on one thing... Will the Twins make a deep playoff run or two with him? If he is a World Series hero for us, he will be more popular than Joe Mauer will ever be and will go down as one of the top 5 all time Twins. If not, he will get a lot of hate from under appreciative fans that don't really understand how baseball finances work and we will have to put up with all the annoying whining of the bandwagon folk

[Squirrel]

8 minutes ago, goulik said:

It all depends on one thing... Will the Twins make a deep playoff run or two with him? If he is a World Series hero for us, he will be more popular than Joe Mauer will ever be and will go down as one of the top 5 all time Twins. If not, he will get a lot of hate from under appreciative fans that don't really understand how baseball finances work and we will have to put up with all the annoying whining of the bandwagon folk

well said

[GNess]

Yes, there is some downside to a long term deal for Correa. If the Twins are going to contend for a World Series they must have at least a few elite-type players. Correa is an elite SS by almost any standard or metric. He will likely be so for likely another 4-5 years.

He seems serious about playing at a high level - when the age related regression does come it doesn't have to be a severe drop off.

The Twins should make a sincere effort to sign Correa.

[jctwins]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:15 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Maybe someone in the TD family of experts can explain to the rest of us, how much different a person's life would be if he were paid 300 million instead of 200 million dollars?  Just asking. How much is "enough"?

You have to remember that each contract sets the market for other players. One guy can go against the rest of the players in the Union, but he has to live with that for the rest of his career and relationship with baseball. It's on the owners if they want to bring contract sizes down, and even they have some limitations on colluding to do that.

[se7799]

Well considering writers and posters are still beating up on Donaldson...after he's not played a game for us for over a year...I'm guessing the hate will be real.

[rv78]

I for one, would not complain the last 5 years of a 10 year contract if he helps bring in 3 or 4 World Series Championships in those first 5 years. The last guy they went out and got that wasn't a long-term Twins that led them to a Championship was Jack Morris and I didn't care what they paid him. They just went and got what they needed. I'd feel the same way about Correa. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, jctwins said:

You have to remember that each contract sets the market for other players. One guy can go against the rest of the players in the Union, but he has to live with that for the rest of his career and relationship with baseball. It's on the owners if they want to bring contract sizes down, and even they have some limitations on colluding to do that.

Good point.

[Trov]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:15 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Maybe someone in the TD family of experts can explain to the rest of us, how much different a person's life would be if he were paid 300 million instead of 200 million dollars?  Just asking. How much is "enough"?

It is not about the money per se, once you get to those numbers.  It is more about being paid the most, because then you are considered one of the best.  It is also about the union pushing contracts up.  Also, why turn down 300 mil if it is offered?