Edouard Julien Can Take the Next Step in 2023

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, darwin22 said:

I don't disagree with your assessment, but would offer the following argument in favor of accelerating Julien's progression.  If, assuming he can duplicate offensive numbers at AAA next year (OBP, slug %) and Polanco's can remain off the IL---by July 1st the front office needs to give SERIOUS CONSIDERATION to trading Polanco.  IMO, Polanco has regressed to the point there's zero reason to let his $10.5 m salary vest for 2024.  

I would not trade Polanco if they are in contention. Julien may be really good in a partial AAA season but then really struggle in the majors as Steer did. If they aren’t in contention they should seriously consider trading Polanco regardless of Julien’s performance.

[Paul Walerius]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Well, he appears on exactly zero top 100 prospect lists. I didn't even include Royce Lewis, Austin Martin and Brooks Lee as players who are probably ahead of Julien on the depth chart long term. He's also fortunate the team traded Spencer Steer. He's going to go to Triple-A next year and try to earn his playing time.

I don't know this for fact but I don't believe Miranda was ever a top 100 prospect.   He also had very minimal AAA games.   I do agree that he will start at AAA (unless they trade Polanco to get cap relief for Correa/Rodon etc). The problem I see is (as of now) the hole is at SS and he can play just about every position except SS.

[ashbury]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There are no position players drafted at 539 who signed and made it to the major leagues. Julien would be the first.

First baseman Lyle Overbay and pitcher Tommy Hunter both put up 10+ WAR after having been drafted #538.  The Twins continue to be snakebit, drafting one too late!

[Danchat]

I could see Julien starting the first couple months in AAA and get a chance in May/June, similarly to how Miranda got his chance. With this lineup's durability, there will be an opening for him sooner than later.

[jorgenswest]

38 minutes ago, ashbury said:

First baseman Lyle Overbay and pitcher Tommy Hunter both put up 10+ WAR after having been drafted #538.  The Twins continue to be snakebit, drafting one too late!

Hunter wasn’t really a 538. He didn’t sign out of high school and was a first round pick later. Many first round college picks were drafted in the late rounds coming out of high school when there virtually no chance they would sign.

Overbay is the bar we hope Julien passes. Good find.

[ashbury]

29 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Hunter wasn’t really a 538. He didn’t sign out of high school and was a first round pick later. Many first round college picks were drafted in the late rounds coming out of high school when there virtually no chance they would sign.

Overbay is the bar we hope Julien passes. Good find.

Fair points, but you realize I was joking around.  Drafting that deep is always a crapshoot.

I guess fact-checking my nonsense is just deserts though.

[jorgenswest]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Fair points, but you realize I was joking around.  Drafting that deep is always a crapshoot.

I guess fact-checking my nonsense is just deserts though.

Still a good find. From a pool of over 100 players in 538/539 only one player had any kind of career. Craps is not that difficult. If Julien makes it credit needs to go to the identifying and development teams in the Twins organization.

[Mark G]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That's a reason to start him in AAA for sure, but not a reason to have him down there all year which is how some of the previous comments read. One suggests him not getting serious consideration until spring training 2024 after all of 2023 at AAA. 

I don't consider Julien a great OF candidate. He's not fast. I know, I know he steals bases, but that doesn't make him fast. I don't think I've seen even a single scouting report have him at even a 50 grade (average) for speed. They're all 40/45 grades. He's a good base runner (Twins need more of those!), but he's not fast. He's another IFer who probably can't field super well there (all the more reason to put Martin in the OF!). He's an Arraez type player defensively, with less arm strength. But that bat has a chance to be real, and you can never have too many bats!

"One suggests him not getting serious consideration until spring training 2024 after all of 2023 at AAA."

That, I believe, would have been me.    

I still believe it.  This extremely humble observer does not believe a professional athlete in any sport, much less baseball, is old at 24 which is what he turns next April.  And with all the people ahead of him, why rush anything?  When did a year at AAA become so absurd?  He needs to improve his defense, and still needs to prove he can hit advanced pitching.  If he is as good as we would like to think he is, he will prove it and be part of the future.  In the meantime, we maintain the years of control we currently have.  I have seen way too many players get called up only to be sent back down again because they were over matched at that moment.  Give him the time he needs.  With all the guys on the roster ahead of him now, what's the rush?  

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

"One suggests him not getting serious consideration until spring training 2024 after all of 2023 at AAA."

That, I believe, would have been me.    

I still believe it.  This extremely humble observer does not believe a professional athlete in any sport, much less baseball, is old at 24 which is what he turns next April.  And with all the people ahead of him, why rush anything?  When did a year at AAA become so absurd?  He needs to improve his defense, and still needs to prove he can hit advanced pitching.  If he is as good as we would like to think he is, he will prove it and be part of the future.  In the meantime, we maintain the years of control we currently have.  I have seen way too many players get called up only to be sent back down again because they were over matched at that moment.  Give him the time he needs.  With all the guys on the roster ahead of him now, what's the rush?  

I'm not suggesting rushing him, but am suggesting not holding him back. It's the orgs job to know when someone is ready. The Braves continue to call guys up who are dominating AA and never even play in AAA and those guys are excelling. If Julien is ready at some point in 2023 and there's an opening there's no reason not to call him up. He'll be on the 40 man already. He should definitely start in AAA, but once they get beyond the first 2 weeks of the season there's not even service time concerns when I comes to calling him up.

If he's ready and he can help the Twins win games call him up. That's all I'm saying. Don't force him up before he's ready, but don't make him stay in AAA just to keep him in AAA. 

And, while 24 may not be old, Julien would definitely prefer to get his service clock ticking ASAP. Holding him in AAA all year "just because" would literally cost him millions when it pushes his free agency opportunity into his age 30+ seasons.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

I don't know this for fact but I don't believe Miranda was ever a top 100 prospect.   He also had very minimal AAA games.   I do agree that he will start at AAA (unless they trade Polanco to get cap relief for Correa/Rodon etc). The problem I see is (as of now) the hole is at SS and he can play just about every position except SS.

Entering this season Jose Miranda was in the 90s on top 100 prospect lists including MLB.com. He played 101 games at AAA.

[Mark G]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not suggesting rushing him, but am suggesting not holding him back. It's the orgs job to know when someone is ready. The Braves continue to call guys up who are dominating AA and never even play in AAA and those guys are excelling. If Julien is ready at some point in 2023 and there's an opening there's no reason not to call him up. He'll be on the 40 man already. He should definitely start in AAA, but once they get beyond the first 2 weeks of the season there's not even service time concerns when I comes to calling him up.

If he's ready and he can help the Twins win games call him up. That's all I'm saying. Don't force him up before he's ready, but don't make him stay in AAA just to keep him in AAA. 

And, while 24 may not be old, Julien would definitely prefer to get his service clock ticking ASAP. Holding him in AAA all year "just because" would literally cost him millions when it pushes his free agency opportunity into his age 30+ seasons.

The key point there would be if there's an opening.  I would never hesitate to call up the best option we have on the 40 man due to injuries (which we all know we are famous for), but not just to see how he does.  I still believe in letting them come along step by step, and not having faced pitching beyond AA for more than 2 weeks, as you suggest, I would hesitate quite a bit unless absolutely necessary.  He has plenty of time as long as he stays healthy.

I also happen to believe in trades when you have a log jam of players in the same or similar positions.  When an organization has several 2nd and/or 3rd base players in the system, as an example, and there is no avenue to be brought up except by injury, out of respect to the players in that log jam it would be beneficial for all concerned to trade from the strength for a place of weakness the organization may have, in our case catcher.    Maybe the best solution to all the prospects we have in the infield who can play multiple positions except SS would be to move one or two to open up spots.  I believe it is time to trade Polanco for example, while he still has value, and bring along the young guys.  If push comes to shove, Arraez can hold it down until one or more is ready, or Gordon as well.  Maybe that would allow players to come along faster.  

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Still a good find. From a pool of over 100 players in 538/539 only one player had any kind of career. Craps is not that difficult. If Julien makes it credit needs to go to the identifying and development teams in the Twins organization.

Just looking at Twins 18th round players who signed and made the big leagues the list is 

1982 Frank Eufemia (448 overall)

1978 Scott Ullger (456)

1968 Jerry Terrell (412)

19th rounders 

2016 Sean Poppen (573)

2006 Danny Valencia (576)

1982 Marty Pevy (474)

20th rounders

1999 Travis Bowyer (599)

1990 Damian Miller (544)

1984 Gene Larkin (504)

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Julien may not be close to being ready at 2B defensively. His eventual position might be 1B. Does he need a full season in AAA to be ready to play 2B in the majors? I think his glove more than his bat will determine his readiness.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 hours ago, Mark G said:

This extremely humble observer does not believe a professional athlete in any sport, much less baseball, is old at 24 which is what he turns next April. 

You may not think 24 is old, but history tells us the later a prospect comes up the less chance there is for him to be an all star level player. Sure there are examples of players that come up at 24 or 25 and turn into an all star(few and far between) but there are thousands and thousands of examples that type of player doesn't make it or turns into a serviceable type player, which isn't bad teams need them as well. People seem to think the twins are the exception to this rule, not every player needs to be an all star/HOF type but it sure would help the twins to have a few more of those types of players.

If you can't hit major league pitching by by 23 the odds are you will never be great at hitting major league pitching.

Rosarios (23), Kepler (22), Sano (22), Polanco (20 but really 22 ), Arraez (22), Buxton (21 but really 22), Mauer (21), Morneau (22), Cuddy (22 but really 23), Hunter (21 but really 23)

Lawton (23 but really 25), Walker (23 but really 25), Jacque Jones (24), Ford (26 really 27), Bartlett (25), Gordon(25) all serviceable major league players but not the solution to problems. These are just ones off the top of my head.

Stepping though the minors doesn't make a major league hitter better, having the skills does. Arreaz went from A+ in 17 to playing 92 games in the majors in 19 would he be a better player if they would have moved him slowly?

I am not saying Julien will or will not be an all star type player, but I would bet if he hasn't forced his way onto the Twins next year he won't be.

 

 

[Paul Walerius]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Entering this season Jose Miranda was in the 90s on top 100 prospect lists including MLB.com. He played 101 games at AAA.

21 of those games were this year.   Still seems like more than he was at AAA.   Entering this year he was ranked so I guess it doesnt worry me that Julien has not been.  

[Major League Ready]

On 10/20/2022 at 11:08 AM, DJL44 said:

There are no position players drafted at 539 who signed and made it to the major leagues. Julien would be the first.

How many were drafted after 539 that went on the have good / productive careers?  The fact that this specific draft pick has not done well is not relevant unless no players drafted that late went on the be productive players.

[jorgenswest]

50 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

How many were drafted after 539 that went on the have good / productive careers?  The fact that this specific draft pick has not done well is not relevant unless no players drafted that late went on the be productive players.

Rocky Coppinger is the career 539 WAR leader with 1.2.

At 538 Lyle Overbay has 16.5.

Keith Brown is is the 540 leader with 0.3.

That is a lot of players drafted and signed with only one significant career (unless we consider Joe Beimel’s career significant).

 

[jorgenswest]

More on Julien and his 2 home run game Jonathan Mayo

https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-edouard-julien-homers-twice-in-arizona-fall-league

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Rocky Coppinger is the career 539 WAR leader with 1.2.

At 538 Lyle Overbay has 16.5.

Keith Brown is is the 540 leader with 0.3.

That is a lot of players drafted and signed with only one significant career (unless we consider Joe Beimel’s career significant).

 

The author of this article has gotten a lot of discussion mileage out of what he probably thought was a throwaway introductory sentence. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How many were drafted after 539 that went on the have good / productive careers?  The fact that this specific draft pick has not done well is not relevant unless no players drafted that late went on the be productive players.

Drafted and signed? Not very many. There are a lot of high school players drafted after 539 who didn't sign and went to college. You can do the data search yourself, I'm not interested in going any deeper down this rabbit hole.

[jorgenswest]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Drafted and signed? Not very many. There are a lot of high school players drafted after 539 who didn't sign and went to college. You can do the data search yourself, I'm not interested in going any deeper down this rabbit hole.

You asked. Easy count. 35 signed pick 539s. 

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Drafted and signed? Not very many. There are a lot of high school players drafted after 539 who didn't sign and went to college. You can do the data search yourself, I'm not interested in going any deeper down this rabbit hole.

I just prefer to be optimistic.  Tatis Jr. was not highly thought of and was acquired for a veteran pitcher who performed horribly after the trade.  I am far more interested in what Julien is doing today than when he was drafted.

BTW ... I was listening to the MLB network and one of the big name prospect guys was being interview by Grant Paulson.  I thought it was Calis but I don't remember.  It could have been Mayo who did the article Jorgenswest linked above.   Paulson asked who the guys he was going to be watching among those who were not already well because of their draft position.  The first name out of his mouth was Eduardo Julien.  Point being he is showing that he has a legit chance in the eyes of those who evaluate players for a living.  So, I am going to enjoy his current success and be happy we got a guy that last that has a shot rather than presuming he will fail.