Edouard Julien Can Take the Next Step in 2023

[Cody Christie]

Edouard Julien has been an on-base machine over the last two years. Now on the cusp of the big leagues, can he take the next step in 2023?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

 

Not many teams hit on an 18th-round draft pick, but the Twins may have found a sleeper in the 2019 MLB Draft. He was a draft-eligible sophomore because MLB ruled his secondary school year in Canada counted as a college season. During his final amateur season, he posted an .841 OPS with 14 doubles and ten home runs in 65 games. Minnesota took Edouard Julien with the 539th overall pick and went way over slot to sign him for $493,000.   

Julien's pro debut had to wait until 2021 because of the shutdown, but he quickly made his mark on the Twins system. He split time between Low-A and High-A while hitting .267/.434/.480 (.914) with 28 doubles, 18 home runs, and 34 steals in 112 games. His 110 walks led all of the minor leagues, but he struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances. He was roughly the same age as the competition at his level, so there was some concern with his lack of consistent contact and high strikeout totals. Luckily, he remedied some of those issues in 2022. 

Minnesota sent Julien to Double-A for the entire 2022 season, and he hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. His .441 OBP ranked fifth in the minor leagues. He reduced his aggressiveness, allowing him to make more consistent contact. He also struck out in 24.6% of his plate appearances after striking out in 28% of his plate appearances in 2021. He can drive the ball to all fields with plenty of power. Julien was also over a year younger than the average age of the competition Double-A, so he faced older pitchers in 87% of his at-bats. There were positive signs, and Minnesota wanted him to continue to develop in the 2022 AFL. 

Julien is an on-base machine, and that trend has continued in limited AFL action. He drew ten walks in his first seven games compared to eight strikeouts. Offensively, he has gone 7-for-23 with six runs scored, a double, and a stolen base. All his defensive innings have come at second base in the AFL, and that's another area for him to improve as he gets closer to the big-league level. 

During his professional career, the Twins have used Julien at multiple defensive positions, including first base, second base, third base, and left field. Over 70% of his defensive innings have come at second base because his arm typically rates below average. He likely won't be an above-average defender at any defensive position, but he can continue to improve at second base. 

The Twins have developed Julien from a late-round pick into one of the team's top-15 prospects. If he continues on his current path, there is a chance he will make his big-league debut in 2023. He has inserted himself into the team's long-term plans and will be an exciting prospect to watch in the years ahead. 

How do you view Julien at this point in his professional career? Can he be the Twins' second baseman of the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Mark G]

Love the potential, and his stats rising as he gets older and moves up the minor league ladder gives one a lot of hope.  But with the log jam at 2nd we currently have, and the fact he is only 23 and has only gone as far as AA, I would like to see him for an entire season at AAA, somewhat similar to what Miranda did, before bringing him to spring training and giving serious consideration.  If he continues to excel at that level we may have to start considering 2nd base a position of strength and possibly move some folks around or have some trade chips.  But I would like to give it a year to see.  

[Whitey333]

To be honest I never heard of him and I follow the Twins closely.  My point being first thanks for the well researched article!  Secondly,  I agree that he perhaps needs to prove, like Miranda did, that he can play ball with the big boys by playing AAA for a season.

[MinnInPa]

looks like candidate to replace Polanco in a couple years....pair him w Brooks Lee..whom i see on a very fast track to Majors.. Miranda, Julien, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, etc ..hopefully these youngsters can come up quick and hit for some power, Avg, and not K over 25% of the time

[RJA]

I think Julien is a great prospect.  He had another great game in the AFL yesterday, with two doubles and a walk and now is hitting .346, with an OBP of .541 and an OPS of 1.002.  If Martin continues to crush the ball as he is in the AFL, the Twins will have some tough decisions next year, either in the spring or midseason.  Long term, with Lewis (hopefully he makes a complete recovery), Lee, and Julien, the infield looks like a real strength.  You could add Martin to that list but I think he will end up in the outfield.

[Blyleven2011]

Julien looks like a good hitter , doubles and alot of walks so he has a good eye  ,  looks like he can hit for a higher average and has power potential to hit around 20 homers in a season  ....

He has some versatility  ...

We might have an opening at first base , maybe they should take a look at him for first base since his arm strength is weak  ...

[saviking]

We should handle him the way we did Celestino. Bring him to AAA until someone get's injured and we need him. If he can improve his defense and Polanco has another sub par year (for his standards) then let him compete with Polanco the next year or trade Polanco if he get's called up due to injury's next year and proves himself.

[MGM4706]

Put him in Left. Got to get some Production out there. Larnach is not the answer. Can't hit a cutter and can't cover much ground 

[gman]

Potentially Julien is another on-base machine. The Twins lineup has not been strong in that regard in years. Another good problem is where to play him. Let the cream rise to the top. I don't think triple A will slow him down. It's good to have players at higher minor league levels pushing the major leaguers for playing time. Should be that way.

[TwinsAce]

2 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Put him in Left. Got to get some Production out there. Larnach is not the answer. Can't hit a cutter and can't cover much ground 

Larnach showed pretty good defense in LF last year.  He might not be able to cover a ton of ground, but he isn't slow.  And his arm is accurate and he seems to make good decisions.

[Finlander]

Miranda and Julien may have been the prime reasons the Twins were able to make Steer available last year. Julien looks like a nice hitting prospect if he can continue to lower his K rate. It does seem that the team has had more than its share of positionless minor league hitters who strike out a lot despite their "good hitting eye". Rooker, Sabato, et al are some that come to mind. I wouldn't mind seeing a few more  .275/.330/.410 types that are plus defenders at defined positions. But it definitely looks like the scouting department did a good job in finding Julien that late in the draft, and I agree with a previous post that he could be Polanco's eventual replacement at 2B.

[TwinsDr2021]

He will be 24 on April 30th, what is the talk about having him spend another year in the minors just because? Just like Lee if he starts out hot, get him up and move the person that is cold down. It isn't like it is hard to find at bats for guys playing well.

[DJL44]

He's pretty certain to make his MLB debut next season since he'll be on the 40 man roster. He will likely spend 2023 in St. Paul with trips to Target Field when needed to replace an injured player. I don't expect him to get consistent MLB playing time unless they sell veteran players at the deadline.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He will be 24 on April 30th, what is the talk about having him spend another year in the minors just because?

Because he's not at the top of the depth chart at 2B or LF. Polanco, Arraez and Gordon are ahead of him at 2B. Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino and Gordon ahead of him in LF. He's buried and hasn't played a game at AAA.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Because he's not at the top of the depth chart at 2B or LF. Polanco, Arraez and Gordon are ahead of him at 2B. Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino and Gordon ahead of him in LF. He's buried and hasn't played a game at AAA.

If you are buried behind a 27 year old utility player, a 26 year old with 130 games and has been injured for two years, a 25 year old with less games than the previous and basically been hut since 2019, and a back up outfielder with a career OPS of .592 you really aren't much of a prospect.

Him and Lee should be the starting middle infield for the AA team and if and when they get hot they should be brought up and inserted into the lineup somewhere and if they don't well Lee is still young enough to overcome that, Not so sure Julien has that luxory.

[Nashvilletwin]

41 minutes ago, RJA said:

I think Julien is a great prospect.  He had another great game in the AFL yesterday, with two doubles and a walk and now is hitting .346, with an OBP of .541 and an OPS of 1.002.  If Martin continues to crush the ball as he is in the AFL, the Twins will have some tough decisions next year, either in the spring or midseason.  Long term, with Lewis (hopefully he makes a complete recovery), Lee, and Julien, the infield looks like a real strength.  You could add Martin to that list but I think he will end up in the outfield.

Agree. The Twins have seven solid young infielder prospects/major leaguers: Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Martin. You could throw in Jeffers as well behind the dish. 

This should be our next, new young “core” (replacing Sano, Kepler and Polanco) arriving at different times but all together as a unit probably in ‘24.  Hopefully Kiriloff, Larnach and Wallner are part of the gang too.

This group has a strong mix of pop, speed, OBP, and interchangeability/positional flexibility (for example, Gordon and Martin could be highly productive “super utilities”). Cheap too. Add Correa and get 100 games out of Buxton in CF and this looks like a strong lineup with enough cash to build a pitching staff to maintain a true open window for at least a couple of years.

The key is to get these young players the coaching, training, and innings to keep (and continuously) developing their potential. We can’t afford Sano and Kepler type plateauings. 

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

you really aren't much of a prospect.

Well, he appears on exactly zero top 100 prospect lists. I didn't even include Royce Lewis, Austin Martin and Brooks Lee as players who are probably ahead of Julien on the depth chart long term. He's also fortunate the team traded Spencer Steer. He's going to go to Triple-A next year and try to earn his playing time.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because he's not at the top of the depth chart at 2B or LF. Polanco, Arraez and Gordon are ahead of him at 2B. Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino and Gordon ahead of him in LF. He's buried and hasn't played a game at AAA.

That's a reason to start him in AAA for sure, but not a reason to have him down there all year which is how some of the previous comments read. One suggests him not getting serious consideration until spring training 2024 after all of 2023 at AAA. 

I don't consider Julien a great OF candidate. He's not fast. I know, I know he steals bases, but that doesn't make him fast. I don't think I've seen even a single scouting report have him at even a 50 grade (average) for speed. They're all 40/45 grades. He's a good base runner (Twins need more of those!), but he's not fast. He's another IFer who probably can't field super well there (all the more reason to put Martin in the OF!). He's an Arraez type player defensively, with less arm strength. But that bat has a chance to be real, and you can never have too many bats!

[PDX Twin]

The thought of Julien and Arraez drawing 100 walks each at the top of the lineup should make Buxton and the other middle-of-the-lineup hitters giddy!

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Not many teams hit on an 18th-round draft pick, but the Twins may have found a sleeper in the 2019 MLB Draft.

The best player drafted and signed in his spot (539) is Rocky Coppinger with 1.2 career WAR. Chris Booker (drafted and signed in 1995) was the last to play in the majors from 539. He had a career ERA of 14.29.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The best player drafted and signed in his spot (539) is Rocky Coppinger with 1.2 career WAR. Chris Booker (drafted and signed in 1995) was the last to play in the majors from 539. He had a career ERA of 14.29.

There are no position players drafted at 539 who signed and made it to the major leagues. Julien would be the first.

[tony&rodney]

Julien has some sneaky strength in his bat. I watched quite a few of his at bats this past season and he has an uncanny eye at the plate. I counted at least ten times this past season where he was wrung up on 3-2 pitches that were clearly well out of the zone. His swing looks awkward when he does swing at pitches out of the zone which seems to indicate that he has a strong idea of his strengths and weaknesses. He hits the ball hard on a pretty consistent basis, so I would say he is a different hitter than Arraez who has incredible bat to ball skills. Julien might be a better hitter than Miranda and he is already a better base runner although he won't likely steal as many bases as he gets MLB time. It is difficult to know where Julien would play on the field but if he hits and gets on base like he has in AA and in the Arizona Fall League, the Twins will find a slot for him. Finally, while the Twins need more defensive minded position players it sure seems like Julien is someone who has improved his K rate and would benefit from the better umpires at the highest level. Julien may be that rare hitter who maintains his batting success as he moves up.

[mikelink45]

Time to consider our infield surplus is trade candidates to get the pitcher we need. It appears that we have the candidates to fill the holes if we can find somebody who wants our current talent. 

[Rosterman]

Have to see him on the field at AAA. But like Martin, he might be better suited for the outfield. But then, have to make lots of decision.

Lewis is still questionable as the shortstop of the future, especially if Brooks Lee looks like he can play the spot. Miranda should slot into third base. Kirilloff and Arraez should be at DH/1B. One has wrist worries, one ahs knee worries.

Build from within.

[DocBauer]

I'm a huge fan of Polanco. When it's a clutch moment, he's one of the top 2 or 3 guys I want at the plate. But I'm not so sure Julien doesn't replace him over the next year or so. 

Defense needs to improve, but boy can he hit and get on base. Throw in the power and good base running and we might really have something here. I was really surprised when he debuted in 2021 and he just keeps getting better.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Time to consider our infield surplus is trade candidates to get the pitcher we need. It appears that we have the candidates to fill the holes if we can find somebody who wants our current talent. 

I agree but the fo really has been screwing up the trades by acquiring damaged goods and reducing  the prospect  talent in the system  ...

[bunsen82]

1st off we paid Julien more than Seth Gray (our 4th round draft pick).  He had a heck of a run in the college world series and started to ask more than was likely agreed to when the Twins initially signed,  but they were able to find the initial money to sign him after he had said he was going back.  

To me,  he was another lottery pick that year similar to Holland.  Of the two I wish Holland had hit as he is a shortstop,  but Julien performing well is still a win.  

2nd base and our future utility player or trade chip comes down to Martin or Julien likely.   I anticipate they each will get a taste at the big leagues next year.  

[Doctor Gast]

The little he has played in AFL he has done very well, he has shown that he can play at this level and deserves more playing time. Aree with chpette that OF & 3B is out of the question. He doesn't have the top end speed but he's quick, which he could make it at 2B or if not he could excel at 1B.

Until recently we have been drafting & hoarding players majoring in big bats and minor in the glove department. We were very deep at corner OF, 2B, 1B & DH. It was good to weed some out and get some players where we were shallow.

It's easy to get excited about Julien, I believe he could get a chance at the end of '23 season if he continue on this path.

[darwin22]

10 hours ago, Mark G said:

Love the potential, and his stats rising as he gets older and moves up the minor league ladder gives one a lot of hope.  But with the log jam at 2nd we currently have, and the fact he is only 23 and has only gone as far as AA, I would like to see him for an entire season at AAA, somewhat similar to what Miranda did, before bringing him to spring training and giving serious consideration.  If he continues to excel at that level we may have to start considering 2nd base a position of strength and possibly move some folks around or have some trade chips.  But I would like to give it a year to see.  

I don't disagree with your assessment, but would offer the following argument in favor of accelerating Julien's progression.  If, assuming he can duplicate offensive numbers at AAA next year (OBP, slug %) and Polanco's can remain off the IL---by July 1st the front office needs to give SERIOUS CONSIDERATION to trading Polanco.  IMO, Polanco has regressed to the point there's zero reason to let his $10.5 m salary vest for 2024.  

[weitz41]

If not for the excessive amount of 2nd base prospects in the Twins system and on the big league club. I'd be really happy with his progress. Parting with Steer and Strand for Mahle makes him sand out. If the FO wanted to part ways with the three true outcome plan and go with OBP guys and actually use the running game. Wow are they sitting pretty for that. But that's expecting them to zig while everyone else continues to zags...