The 3 Most Probable Twins Trade Targets at Shortstop

[Tibs]

No to all

Carlos Correa or we aren't serious about winning

[Nick Nelson]

32 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

He was a below MLB average defender at SS this past season, and at his age, that is likely to be the trend for him. 

And I doubt his bat will play well outside of Colorado. I'm not usually a Rox stadium makes a difference guy, but for a slap hitter with no plate discipline, the large ballpark of the Rockies is a perfect fit for him to be his best.

I'd take him on a minor league deal with a spring invite, but nothing more...and that probably won't get it done.

Iglesias had a .709 OPS and it equated to a 90 OPS+. Tells you all you need to know. Contextually his offense was on par with Gary Sanchez.

He interests me not at all. The only FA outside of the big four I find viable is Andrus.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

3 hours ago, Otaknam said:

If the goal is a short term solution until Lewis is ready how about IFK and Rortvedt as a package trade for some mid level minor league players? That solves two issues at once: shortstop on a one year deal  and a backup catcher who plays great defense and bats left handed.

I like this idea a lot as it solves our temporary short stop issue while also solving our catching issue for what may be a reasonable price.  The other thing that I like about this option is that if one or more of our in-house options are ready by mid-season, then we have the option of trading IFK to recoup some of the prospects that we gave the Yankees.

[Minny505]

9 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Iglesias had a .709 OPS and it equated to a 90 OPS+. Tells you all you need to know. Contextually his offense was on par with Gary Sanchez.

He interests me not at all. The only FA outside of the big four I find viable is Andrus.

At this point, I agree.

That said, the field could look a little rosier after non-tenders. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Would be exciting. I can almost guarantee they're not going to win any of those bidding wars so it's necessary to consider other options. Signing one of those free agents is not entirely in their control, even if they are willing to reach the necessary threshold (which they probably aren't). 

They won one last year, and if they DON'T win one this year, payroll is probably going to be about 110M, which I don't think neither the fans nor the Pohlad's would deem acceptable.

In any case, they better not be trading for a glove only SS, they can pick those up on the cheap any time of year. A SS with a .620 OPS isn't going to win you many more games than a SS with a .520 OPS. They might as well just have kept Palacios if they were going this route.

[Minny505]

7 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I like this idea a lot as it solves our temporary short stop issue while also solving our catching issue for what may be a reasonable price.  The other thing that I like about this option is that if one or more of our in-house options are ready by mid-season, then we have the option of trading IFK to recoup some of the prospects that we gave the Yankees.

I'd rather just trade for IKF, but I would keep him as a true Nick Punto like utility man that can masterfully backup every position in the IF...and maybe

There will likely be higher upside catchers available for trade at a lite cost, such as Joey Bart with the Giants or Carson Kelly with the Dbacks. Both are out of favor with their teams and are said to be change of scenery guys. Either would cost more than Rortvedt, but it would likely be marginally more and worth it.

[CRF]

I don't particularly want either of those three guys. I'd love for CC to stay, as unlikely as that is. Let's wait and see how things play out a bit. There's a long winter in front of us. 

[Riverbrian]

You can sign multiple players and improve in multiple spots for what it would take to gobble up one of the top 4 SS's.  

 

[Fighting4par]

Ok the guy hit very near 300 and played most of the year. In his youth he was one of the best fielders to ever put on a glove. He is cheap and will free up money to get other necesities like relief pitching. He will be 33 all of next year. Which is not very old at all. I really don't see how Coors would ever effect a guy who never hits homeruns(?) But ya anyway i have no clue how you could ever go wrong with him. Even if hes a total bust then at least your not paying him record setting money.

On 2/9/2022 at 6:24 PM, DocBauer said:

 

5 hours ago, Minny505 said:

He was a below MLB average defender at SS this past season, and at his age, that is likely to be the trend for him. 

And I doubt his bat will play well outside of Colorado. I'm not usually a Rox stadium makes a difference guy, but for a slap hitter with no plate discipline, the large ballpark of the Rockies is a perfect fit for him to be his best.

I'd take him on a minor league deal with a spring invite, but nothing more...and that probably won't get it done.

 

[Minny505]

29 minutes ago, Fighting4par said:

I really don't see how Coors would ever effect a guy who never hits homeruns(?) 

According to Statcast, it was the 6th most homer friendly stadium in the league in 2022. It was 1st in hits and by a statistically significant margin. 

Rockies Stadium is foremost a batting average park. They have the largest OF in the majors and that means a lot of hits drop in and artificially boost batting average.

Since they started using the humidor, so for 20 years now, the park has gone from ridiculously homer friendly to just homer friendly. For base hits, it's outlandish.

Impressive how strong that initial impression is of the stadium is though. I am certain nearly half of baseball fans over the age of 35, still think of it as a homerun first park.

So yeah, between that, the age, and the diminished glove, hard pass on anything more than a minor league contract. 

Source: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=8&sortDir=desc

[mrtwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Minny505 said:

According to Statcast, it was the 6th most homer friendly stadium in the league in 2022. It was 1st in hits and by a statistically significant margin. 

Rockies Stadium is foremost a batting average park. They have the largest OF in the majors and that means a lot of hits drop in and artificially boost batting average.

Since they started using the humidor, so for 20 years now, the park has gone from ridiculously homer friendly to just homer friendly. For base hits, it's outlandish.

Impressive how strong that initial impression is of the stadium is though. I am certain nearly half of baseball fans over the age of 35, still think of it as a homerun first park.

So yeah, between that, the age, and the diminished glove, hard pass on anything more than a minor league contract. 

Source: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=8&sortDir=desc

Facts,  Matter,?

[dxpavelka]

Offer Correa 5 years $192 and have a conversation about playing a different position when Lewis is ready.  Go big.

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Iglesias had a .709 OPS and it equated to a 90 OPS+. Tells you all you need to know. Contextually his offense was on par with Gary Sanchez.

He interests me not at all. The only FA outside of the big four I find viable is Andrus.

Hold on a second, I'm also interested in Andrus as as a fill in option. But disregarding a resurgent 2022, Iglesias actually has a better career OPS, slightly, and all almost identical OPS+. And I'm surprised by that, but the numbers are there. 

I'm not dismissive of IKF from the Yankees if he comes cheap prospect-wise, as I think the Yankees are ready to turn SS over to their coveted prospect options. (But it would be weird to be a Twin again after being one for about 3 days). And he's a nice ballplayer. And I'd have no problem with him as a 2023 fill-in, and potential trade option if Lewis comes back ready to go. But even though I think the system is still strong overall, I really don't want to trade for someone unless it's cheap, or acquires a really stud kind of pitcher or position player. 

I've seen a few ideas of Mateo on a, hopefully, cheap trade with Baltimore. It's an intriguing idea for speed and some pop, but the guy can't hit and , can't get OB. So, IMO, that leaves Iglesias and Andrus. So what makes you so down on Iglesias vs Andrus considering their career numbers? A 1yr resurgence from Adrus in 2022?

I'm interested in both Iglesias and Andrus as a short-term SS for 2023. I "like" both for this role but don't know why you dismiss one over the other so definitively.

[Nick Nelson]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm interested in both Iglesias and Andrus as a short-term SS for 2023. I "like" both for this role but don't know why you dismiss one over the other so definitively.

It's subjective, and you make a good case for the validity of Iglesias. To me, it comes down to this: 

• Andrus has shown he can be a legitimately valuable player over the past two seasons (5.1 fWAR). Iglesias, less so (2.7 fWAR). 
• I'm not convinced Iglesias is much of a defender at SS anymore. Statcast agrees.

You can live with Iglesias as a plug-in but Andrus has actually flashed modest upside of late. That's the difference maker for me.

 

[Nick Nelson]

20 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

They won one last year, and if they DON'T win one this year, payroll is probably going to be about 110M, which I don't think neither the fans nor the Pohlad's would deem acceptable.

In any case, they better not be trading for a glove only SS, they can pick those up on the cheap any time of year. A SS with a .620 OPS isn't going to win you many more games than a SS with a .520 OPS. They might as well just have kept Palacios if they were going this route.

Let's be clear, the Twins didn't really win a bidding war for Correa. They took advantage of very unique circumstances in a unique offseason. It's not like they were throwing out $250M offers like they'd need to do in order to re-sign Correa, or get into the convo for Turner/Bogaerts. Also, there are other ways to spend that extra money if they don't use it on a SS. 

I think suggesting that all light-hitting, glove-first defenders at SS are the same is misguided. Someone like Nick Ahmed, at his peak, is a huge difference-maker because of what he does in the field. That 670 OPS hasn't prevented him from putting up basically the same career WAR as Jorge Polanco. 

[ashbury]

17 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Rockies Stadium is foremost a batting average park. They have the largest OF in the majors and that means a lot of hits drop in and artificially boost batting average.

This is useful insight and I believe in it.  And yet, the man hit .315 on the road in 2022. 

At home the BA was only .264.  Such a reverse split is not likely sustainable.  So, which is the real Iglesias?

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Let's be clear, the Twins didn't really win a bidding war for Correa. They took advantage of very unique circumstances in a unique offseason. It's not like they were throwing out $250M offers like they'd need to do in order to re-sign Correa, or get into the convo for Turner/Bogaerts. Also, there are other ways to spend that extra money if they don't use it on a SS. 

I think suggesting that all light-hitting, glove-first defenders at SS are the same is misguided. Someone like Nick Ahmed, at his peak, is a huge difference-maker because of what he does in the field. That 670 OPS hasn't prevented him from putting up basically the same career WAR as Jorge Polanco. 

The shortstop market looks to be similar to last year. Four good looking players and absolutely nothing else. The Twins played the game and won once, they could and should do it again even if it means doubling, tripling or quadrupling down. They have nothing to spend their money on in the foreseeable future except for pitching, which they've repeatedly demonstrated is against their philosophy.

I'm glad that Polanco was brought up, because he and his subpar defense were manning SS the last two times the Twins won the division. I don't want him back there, but elite defense at short is a nice luxury, while a middle of the order bat is much more essential.

And no, I don't think there's much difference between above average defense and good defense. The idea of an Andrelton Simmons or Pedro Florimon starting at SS sounds good in April but by May everyone's grumbling. 

[railmarshalljon]

18 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Offer Correa 5 years $192 and have a conversation about playing a different position when Lewis is ready.  Go big.

I'd do that in a heartbeat, but I'm guessing he gets an 8+ year deal. I do think he'd be a really good at 3B if and when he loses some agility.

[Minny505]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

This is useful insight and I believe in it.  And yet, the man hit .315 on the road in 2022. 

At home the BA was only .264.  Such a reverse split is not likely sustainable.  So, which is the real Iglesias?

That is a bit of a surprise. If you look at the team as a whole, BA is completely reversed. 

Bodes well for his bat not going completely Aldrelton in 2023. 

None of that changes my opinion on signing him to be a stop gap. I'm fine with him as a minor league signing and fallback or utility option, if that's the idea.

32 and 33 are the years where the wheels start to come off for most non-superstar middle infielders. We saw it first hand with players like Dozier and Simmons, but it's a well researched aging curve.

The risk just isn't worth it. What if none of our prospects are ready to step in during the season? Do you really want Iglesias as the starting SS all year? 

In 2019 I was all over this idea, but that ship has sailed.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

That is a bit of a surprise. If you look at the team as a whole, BA is completely reversed. 

Bodes well for his bat not going completely Aldrelton in 2023. 

None of that changes my opinion on signing him to be a stop gap. I'm fine with him as a minor league signing and fallback or utility option, if that's the idea.

32 and 33 are the years where the wheels start to come off for most non-superstar middle infielders. We saw it first hand with players like Dozier and Simmons, but it's a well researched aging curve.

The risk just isn't worth it. What if none of our prospects are ready to step in during the season? Do you really want Iglesias as the starting SS all year? 

In 2019 I was all over this idea, but that ship has sailed.

I don't know where to find home/road splits of BABIP, but I think there is good reason to believe it's the explanation for the disparity.  And thus, not sustainable.

I'm with you, it's not worth a few million dollars to find out what gas is left in that tank.

[Squirrel]

On 10/19/2022 at 10:26 AM, Nick Nelson said:

Okay, who do you want? I would bet that Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, and Swanson all sign with big-market teams for huge contracts, with the first 3 being out of the Twins' realistic spending range and Swanson being too expensive to be a wise investment (I'm not a huge believer in him). 

I'm not trying to get the "answer I want" I'm trying to get a realistic and specific answer beyond "I wanna spend big money on an awesome two-way shortstop!" It's not that simple.

Then we will never win. Honestly, that’s what I believe. Realistic for the Twins means “also-ran” is the best we could ever be. This is a Sisyphusian endeavor with this team.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, railmarshalljon said:

I'd do that in a heartbeat, but I'm guessing he gets an 8+ year deal. I do think he'd be a really good at 3B if and when he loses some agility.

Sure, he MIGHT get an 8 year offer.  Of course, he didn't last time around.  Seager, Baez, Semian & Story got a combined 29 years, $780 million.  Their new teams finished a combined 62 games under .500.  88 if you factor in the fact that the Rangers double dipped.  Need to at least make the offer.  Never know how the market will break.

[Doctor Gast]

On 10/19/2022 at 9:35 AM, Otaknam said:

If the goal is a short term solution until Lewis is ready how about IFK and Rortvedt as a package trade for some mid level minor league players? That solves two issues at once: shortstop on a one year deal  and a backup catcher who plays great defense and bats left handed.

I actually put this trade in at BTV, a while ago. So I'm all in favor with this idea. In my payrole blueprints, I had Correa in my 1st & IKF in my 2nd backup plan. I think NYY is motivated for the reason you mentioned & also they have 2 SS prospects coming up that they are very high on.

I haven't been following the play offs that closely except CLE, there IKF were one the batting leaders. But at SS, glove is priority, the bat is the icing on the cake.