The 3 Most Probable Twins Trade Targets at Shortstop

[Nick Nelson]

The current Twins front office has consistently been very active on the trade market. If they decide this is their best avenue for addressing the glaring need at shortstop, there are three names that stand out as likely targets.

Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

As detailed in our "Future of Shortstop" chapter of the Offseason Handbook (now available for Caretakers to download!), there are four big names on the shortstop free agency market this offseason, and it's likely the Twins won't land any of them. 

In fact, if the front office believes their shortstop of the future is already in the organization, they might not even seriously pursue any of them. 

Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are all going to get long-term deals worth more than $100 million. The free agent pool drops off severely after those four players, to the point that it might make more sense to trade for a short-term plug in search of a little more impact.

Yesterday, Matt Braun highlighted three under-the-radar trade targets. While I could definitely see the Twins getting creative and going after any one of those names, the following trio of shortstops strike me as more straightforward and likely options – each distinctly appealing to the Twins for different, yet similar, reasons. 

These are the more "on the radar" shortstop trade targets.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, New York Yankees

As we all remember (who could forget?!), Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for about a day or so, between the time he was acquired from Texas and then traded to the Yankees. The Twins were adamant at the time they didn't deal for IKF with the intention of immediately flipping him. They liked him. 

If they liked him then, there's not much reason to think they don't like him now. He had a customary season in New York, rating well defensively while not hitting much. Kiner-Falefa experienced the brunt of Yankee fan vitriol and was benched in key late-season situations. It's safe to say both parties are ready to move on. 

With one season of arbitration remaining and a mediocre showing in his most recent campaign, Kiner-Falefa will surely cost less to acquire than a year ago, when the Twins gave up two seasons of Mitch Garver. 

If the Twins are planning to usher Royce Lewis back in as shortstop midway through the season, IKF would make a lot of sense as an interim plug, capable of moving off shortstop and handling other positions like third, where he's got a Gold Glove under his belt. 

Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks

If the Twins want to shoot a bit higher than Kiner-Falefa, who'd be a logical albeit uninspiring fit, they could turn their attention to Ahmed. He's not without his own risk and downside, though.

Ahmed is akin to Kiner-Falefa in that he specializes with the glove and doesn't offer much with the bat. His defensive strength, however, has been much stronger. Ahmed won Gold Gloves at shortstop in 2018 and 2019, and was a three-win player both years based entirely on defensive value. 

He had an especially brutal offensive season in 2021, and then missed almost all of 2022 due to shoulder surgery, so his stock is definitely down. Ahmed is expected to be a full go next spring, with one year and $10.4 million remaining on his contract. By trading for him, you'd be banking on him regaining his elite defensive impact at age 33, coming off major surgery on his throwing shoulder, but it's not a bad bet.

Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants

Next season, Crawford will be 36 and earning $16 million in the last year of his contract. The age, combined with a very unproductive 2022 campaign at the plate (.231/.308/.344, 9 HR in 118 games), detracts from his appeal. 

However, just one year ago, in 2021, Crawford as an All-Star and MVP contender. He posted 6.3 fWAR, launching 24 home runs with an .895 OPS while winning a Gold Glove. He was, basically, the best version of Carlos Correa. That upside, however faint, makes Crawford interesting, especially when coupled with his floor as an experienced vet with a good glove and expiring contract. 

I recognize that none of these players are very exciting based on what they did in 2022. But they all have common traits that make them great fits for the Twins -- assuming the team is intent on keeping for the door open for one of their prospects to take over at shortstop. All three are veterans with reliably good gloves, varying levels of legitimate upside, and one-year contract commitments. They're also all in relative buy-low situations, which Minnesota's value-minded front office is sure to favor.

Trading for one of these players would enable the Twins to confidently address their 2023 shortstop opening while reserving resources to make bigger splashes in other areas.

 

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[RochesterDave]

I would look hard at the Orioles and Jorge Mateo.. while his bat is average, he played gold glove defense and led the AL in steals with 35.  The Os happen to have an abundance of young shortstops, including BA’s #1 prospect in Gunnar Henderson plus their MILB player of the year - Jordan Westburg.  The only warning I have is.. don’t let Mike Elias pick Falvine’s pocket like he did in the Jorge Lopez trade.  

[MGM4706]

People!! Stop with the " Average" hitting shortstops!! This lineup can't afford another " Average"  below Average hitter. What are you thinking?

[rv78]

If they don't go big, I'd prefer they don't go at all. My instincts tell me since they let Palacios walk they are planning a trade or FA signing to be a fill in instead. Palacios would have made a good stop-gap player to get to Lewis. Now if that is there plan they will have to look elsewhere unless however, I see no harm in using a combo of Gordon, Polanco, Urshela until one of Lewis/Martin/Lee can take over. This team is going no where in 2023 anyway.

[mac098]

I would be okay with IKF coming back for a short term reunion. He played good defense, hits better than a lot of our SS over the past years (doesn't take much), and getting out of NY might be good for him. Look at what happened Urshela when he left NY. He seemed more relaxed and less likely to press on himself to perform at such a high expectation. He seemed as if he was able to free things up a bit knowing that if he made a mistake it wasn't going to be viewed by some of the most hostile fans in the game today. 

I would skip over the other 2. Ahmed is gonna be another comeback case that won't work out because his shoulder won't hold up over the year. And Crawford is old and won't be able to maintain his range that he had in SF. Especially with our MN cold in the spring and fall. 

[Fighting4par]

I have two words for you. JOSE IGLESIAS

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, MGM4706 said:

People!! Stop with the " Average" hitting shortstops!! This lineup can't afford another " Average"  below Average hitter. What are you thinking?

Which above-average hitting shortstop are you interested in acquiring who is actually a realistic target, assuming they aren't looking for a long-term solution that'll cost $100+ million? 

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, MGM4706 said:

People!! Stop with the " Average" hitting shortstops!! This lineup can't afford another " Average"  below Average hitter. What are you thinking?

If I can get good defensive play, "not a liability at the plate" is enough for me.  I don't see that as settling either.  Too much ineptitude at the plate on this team that "not a liability at the plate" is still an upgrade.

[jmlease1]

Whoof. None of these are particularly inspiring. 

Crawford has a lot of risk. The ceiling is realistically not that high; 2021 looks like a fluke year nested among a bunch of decline years. Literally everything went right for him in 2021 (including a big jump in BABIP). realistically anyone acquiring him can't expect more than a 2-3 bWAR year...and that's on the high end. He's averaged less than 2 bWAR over the past 5 years, and that's with that huge, all-star performance coming in out of nowhere. Hard pass.

I'd be pretty concerned about handing things over to Ahmed for the season too. Shoulder surgery is not a great injury for a SS and if he's lost any strength in that shoulder, his ability to impact the game defensively will seriously decline no matter how good his glove skills are. Arm strength at SS really matters, and Ahmed offers little offensively to offset it. He had a nice run from 28-30, but was terrible in 2021 and seriously injured in 2022. Pass.

IKF is the best option of the 3, IMHO, but he's not going to get too many people's socks rolling up and down. He's the most likely to stay a strong defensive player and while his offense isn't much (there's no pop in his bat at all, but he's a respectable base-stealer which will make some people happy) He'll hit enough singles to not be a black hole. (and he makes enough contact to avoid the ire of some of the fan base) I'm not enthusiastic, but as a backup plan/bridge option, he's not terrible. His weak bat would be easier to tolerate if we didn't have so many key players coming off injury.

[Karbo]

Just sign Correa!

[Vanimal46]

14 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Which above-average hitting shortstop are you interested in acquiring who is actually a realistic target, assuming they aren't looking for a long-term solution that'll cost $100+ million? 

Any more requirements you want to add to your question to get the answer you want? Which fast food chain are you interested in going to that’s average, within a 2 mile drive, assuming you don’t want to spend more than $6, and serves McChickens? 

We should be looking for a long term solution at SS. And yep, that’s going to cost some money. The books are damn near pristine from bad investments. The free agent SP market is a graveyard of poor investments. So why not invest on a safer bet like one of the 4 top 10 short stops in the game?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, MGM4706 said:

People!! Stop with the " Average" hitting shortstops!! This lineup can't afford another " Average"  below Average hitter. What are you thinking?

I’m thinking SS and Catcher are not the reason the lineup was awful in ‘22. I’m looking square at the outfield, DH and Gio at 3rd that firmly underperformed in bat first positions. As evidenced by the record, 4-5 hitters can’t be compensated for by one SS.

Especially with the shift being mitigated, quality fielding SS is a must.

I’d love to see Correa re-signed, I don’t see that as likely.

I really like Ahmed as a trade target.

[Otaknam]

If the goal is a short term solution until Lewis is ready how about IFK and Rortvedt as a package trade for some mid level minor league players? That solves two issues at once: shortstop on a one year deal  and a backup catcher who plays great defense and bats left handed.

[Loosey]

Or, use the money they had for Correa and use it to sign a shortstop.  I know they knew Correa was going to opt out, but there was a chance, a small one, that he stayed.  If Correa got injured significantly he likely wouldn’t have opted out and the Twins would have been on the hook for the rest of his deal.  So just use that cash and sign a top tier SS. 

[stringer bell]

The money is there to sign someone to a nine-digit (>$100M) contract. The three biggest areas of need are 1) catcher 2) shortstop and 3) starting pitcher. At this time, the Twins can pencil in five capable starting pitchers and a starting catcher. They don't have a shortstop that projects to hit near league average or field at a major league level. 

I think the Twins should sign a bridge shortstop and count on one of their prospects (Lewis, Lee or Martin) to step in. I'd prefer that the Twins sign a complementary catcher to Jeffers and spend the big money on a starting pitcher (Rodon). One way or another, the Twins have a lot to spend. If they could retain Correa or sign Willson Contreras, I think that would be fine, but I see a real need to upgrade the top of their rotation.

[chpettit19]

More trades this offseason would put the FO, and team, in a pretty tight "need to win with this group" spot. I wouldn't advocate for any trades unless you're replacing those prospects by trading some of your major leaguers but that's a risky game of how much you're truly improving the major league team. Major leaguers are always better to have than prospects, but a team with the budgetary constraints (even if they're self inflicted) of the Twins need constant prospect graduations to stay competitive. Trading away anymore prospects puts this team in a "must hit" spot with all of their top guys for the next few years. So I wouldn't be trading for anyone. Especially not any of these 3. Just sign Jose Iglesias, or one of the other middling FA SS, if you're going this kind of route.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Any more requirements you want to add to your question to get the answer you want? Which fast food chain are you interested in going to that’s average, within a 2 mile drive, assuming you don’t want to spend more than $6, and serves McChickens? 

We should be looking for a long term solution at SS. And yep, that’s going to cost some money. The books are damn near pristine from bad investments. The free agent SP market is a graveyard of poor investments. So why not invest on a safer bet like one of the 4 top 10 short stops in the game?

Okay, who do you want? I would bet that Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, and Swanson all sign with big-market teams for huge contracts, with the first 3 being out of the Twins' realistic spending range and Swanson being too expensive to be a wise investment (I'm not a huge believer in him). 

I'm not trying to get the "answer I want" I'm trying to get a realistic and specific answer beyond "I wanna spend big money on an awesome two-way shortstop!" It's not that simple.

[Nick Nelson]

27 minutes ago, Loosey said:

Or, use the money they had for Correa and use it to sign a shortstop.  I know they knew Correa was going to opt out, but there was a chance, a small one, that he stayed.  If Correa got injured significantly he likely wouldn’t have opted out and the Twins would have been on the hook for the rest of his deal.  So just use that cash and sign a top tier SS. 

If the Twins could get one of the top 3 guys on the same total commitment as Correa (100M) they'd do it in a heartbeat. That's not going to happen though. Freeing up the cash for 2023 alone is not really the issue here. We're talking about 6-7+ year contracts for those top 3. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Any more requirements you want to add to your question to get the answer you want? Which fast food chain are you interested in going to that’s average, within a 2 mile drive, assuming you don’t want to spend more than $6, and serves McChickens? 

We should be looking for a long term solution at SS. And yep, that’s going to cost some money. The books are damn near pristine from bad investments. The free agent SP market is a graveyard of poor investments. So why not invest on a safer bet like one of the 4 top 10 short stops in the game?

To be fair to Nick, the premise of the article is to look at possible trade options at SS, with essentially the assumption that the Twins fail to sign one of the top FA (or don't make the attempt). He's not saying "The Twins should trade for one of these guys" as the best option for the team, just trying to evaluate what are some likely trade targets that might actually be available.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

He had a customary season in New York, rating well defensively while not hitting much. Kiner-Falefa experienced the brunt of Yankee fan vitriol and was benched in key late-season situations.

He did have one good DRS month. I think DRS does a good job of describing the past but much like RBIs is opportunity based. I like it best in determining a gold glove winner but I don’t think it is the best in projecting forward. The other defensive metrics might give a different picture of Kiner-Falefa’s defense. His UZR was 0 last year and 1.1 in 2021 suggesting he is an average defensive shortstop. His RAAs was -2 last year and -5 the previous year. Given the mix wouldn’t a more reasonable expectation is that Kiner-Falefa will likely provide an average glove and below average bat at SS? Would Urshela at SS with a mediocre glove and better bat help more overall? 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

If the goal is a short term solution until Lewis is ready how

(Question in general not attacking your post)

Ready for what is the question I have? Ready to play baseball, ready to go to the minors? ready to take over full time? What if Royce struggles in his return from injury? What happens if they put Urshela or Gordon there and gets hurt. Haven't we seen enough of a really crappy Plan B approach?

IMO they have to look outside of the organization for a SS for 23 and it makes the most sense to pay cash for one and not prospects, didn't they trade enough of them last year? So the options are sign one of the big 4 to a huge contact and not worry about SS for a while or pay a Simmons type again and hope Lewis/Lee/? do so well that they force their way into the starting lineup this year so this isn't an issue  again next year. If they go stop gap route they better improve their offense in others places because they can't go into next year with questions with 2 outfield positions (hitting wise), Miranda and catcher.

[DocBauer]

Honestly, if the Twins don't/can't go big with Correa, I don't think I'd trade for any of these three. We've traded enough already. We have the financial flexibility to add via FA. Iglesias and Andrus are probably just as good of an option as these 3 overall. They are probably a step down defensively, (everyone healthy), but probably a step up offensively. And they cost a 1yr deal and no prospects. 

I'd rather go that direction.

[gman]

Another target could be Nicki Lopez from Kansas City. He splits his time between shortstop and second with good fielding stats at both. Although last year was not a good one for him offensively, in 2021 he was top 5 in hitting in the American league.  With Bobby Witt, probably the future shortstop for KC, along with Aldaberto Mondesi coming off the IL and also Maikel Garcia that both play the position, KC has the position well covered. Garcia is rated has the #5 prospect in the KC system. I'm only guessing but there appears to be an abundance of shortstops in KC for the position.

[Nick Nelson]

36 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

He did have one good DRS month. I think DRS does a good job of describing the past but much like RBIs is opportunity based. I like it best in determining a gold glove winner but I don’t think it is the best in projecting forward. The other defensive metrics might give a different picture of Kiner-Falefa’s defense. His UZR was 0 last year and 1.1 in 2021 suggesting he is an average defensive shortstop. His RAAs was -2 last year and -5 the previous year. Given the mix wouldn’t a more reasonable expectation is that Kiner-Falefa will likely provide an average glove and below average bat at SS? Would Urshela at SS with a mediocre glove and better bat help more overall? 

Fair question. My take:

1. The Twins don't view Urshela as an SS at all. They had ample opportunities to give him even a few sparse looks there this year and he never started a game, even as Nick Gordon got a handful of nods there. 
2. Actually, part of the reason I view IKF as a fit is that he negates the need to bring back Urshela for like 50% more money. If/when Lewis or Lee is ready to step in at short, Kiner-Falefa becomes a nice asset as a backup/utility IF. Agreed that his metrics at SS are underwhelming, but he has rated excellent at 3B, better than Gio. IKF also brings some speed to the roster which Urshela most definitely does not. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Okay, who do you want? I would bet that Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, and Swanson all sign with big-market teams for huge contracts, with the first 3 being out of the Twins' realistic spending range and Swanson being too expensive to be a wise investment (I'm not a huge believer in him). 

I'm not trying to get the "answer I want" I'm trying to get a realistic and specific answer beyond "I wanna spend big money on an awesome two-way shortstop!" It's not that simple.

It’s pretty obvious who I want… Any of the top 4 SS. Falvey needs to step up and win the bid. 

[Nick Nelson]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s pretty obvious who I want… Any of the top 4 SS. Falvey needs to step up and win the bid. 

Would be exciting. I can almost guarantee they're not going to win any of those bidding wars so it's necessary to consider other options. Signing one of those free agents is not entirely in their control, even if they are willing to reach the necessary threshold (which they probably aren't). 

[Minny505]

4 hours ago, RochesterDave said:

I would look hard at the Orioles and Jorge Mateo.. while his bat is average, he played gold glove defense and led the AL in steals with 35.  The Os happen to have an abundance of young shortstops, including BA’s #1 prospect in Gunnar Henderson plus their MILB player of the year - Jordan Westburg.  The only warning I have is.. don’t let Mike Elias pick Falvine’s pocket like he did in the Jorge Lopez trade.  

I absolutely LOVE this idea. He would fit the Twins' need for more speed.

And while being a poor hitter in general, he brings quite a bit of pop. Reminds me of Kahlil Greene at the plate, but with GG caliber defense and could be a top 10 base stealer if he can improve his OBP a bit.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, RochesterDave said:

I would look hard at the Orioles and Jorge Mateo..

I totally agree with this idea, but he would likely be costly. Put aside the trade site that has Larnach worth 50% more than Arraez for a moment and consider how useful the Orioles (any team) find a talent like Mateo. Mateo was moved around and never given much playing time until the Orioles put him in the lineup. Mateo would be a good addition if he can be acquired cheaply just because he can be a non-factor at times offensively. It is really hard to gage what Mateo is worth in my opinion.

[Minny505]

44 minutes ago, gman said:

Another target could be Nicki Lopez from Kansas City. He splits his time between shortstop and second with good fielding stats at both. Although last year was not a good one for him offensively, in 2021 he was top 5 in hitting in the American league.  With Bobby Witt, probably the future shortstop for KC, along with Aldaberto Mondesi coming off the IL and also Maikel Garcia that both play the position, KC has the position well covered. Garcia is rated has the #5 prospect in the KC system. I'm only guessing but there appears to be an abundance of shortstops in KC for the position.

Sounds like Mondesi is likely to be non-tendered. Could be a good FA signing if that is the case.

[Minny505]

3 hours ago, Fighting4par said:

I have two words for you. JOSE IGLESIAS

He was a below MLB average defender at SS this past season, and at his age, that is likely to be the trend for him. 

And I doubt his bat will play well outside of Colorado. I'm not usually a Rox stadium makes a difference guy, but for a slap hitter with no plate discipline, the large ballpark of the Rockies is a perfect fit for him to be his best.

I'd take him on a minor league deal with a spring invite, but nothing more...and that probably won't get it done.