Twins Trade Candidate: Gio Urshela

[Cody Christie]

Gio Urshela was one of Minnesota's most reliable players in 2022, but Jose Miranda's emergence might make him expendable. Will the Twins trade Urshela?

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. 

What Did He Do in 2022? 
Gio Urshela's first season in a Twins uniform went about as good as one could expect. He hit .285/.338/.429 (.767) with a 119 wRC+ and a 121 OPS+. He ranked in the 60th percentile or higher in max exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and K%. Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, and Byron Buxton were the only Twins players to accumulate more WAR. His defense was below average as he ranked 8th among AL third baseman in SDI while also being in the 11th percentile for Outs Above Average. Overall, Urshela is an above-average big-leaguer, proving that again in 2022. 

Many will compare Urshela to Josh Donaldson since they played the same position and were included in the same trade. Urshela's OPS+ was 27 points higher than Donaldson's while accumulating 0.7 more WAR. Donaldson continues to be a superior defender to Urshela, but he was a below-average hitter in 2022. They are unique players at different points in their careers, but Urshela had the stronger 2022 season. 

Why is He a Trade Candidate?
Jose Miranda's emergence over the last two seasons points to him becoming the team's long-term third baseman. In his rookie season, Miranda hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with a 117 wRC+. He finished second in the TD Rookie of the Year voting, which came on the heels of a breakout 2021 season in the minors. Miranda plans to make improvements this winter by training with Carlos Correa. Derek Falvey also spoke highly of Miranda in his year-end press conference, which can signify that the team is ready for him to have a full-time role. Urshela's presence on the roster may be superfluous with Miranda's accolades. 

What is His Trade Value?
Urshela will enter his final arbitration year and projects to get more than $9 million. FanGraphs pegs his value last season at $18.9 million, so his salary is below his production level. There will likely be a variety of teams interested in adding a solid regular to their line-up. However, Urshela is in his final year of team control, which impacts how much teams will be willing to surrender. It doesn't seem likely for Urshela to be worth a king's ransom, but he is worth multiple mid-tier prospects with upside. 

The Twins aren't forced to trade Urshela this winter because he showed the team the value he can provide in 2022. But injuries can impact the big-league roster, and Urshela might be needed as depth if there are injuries to other parts of the roster. Urshela will be the lone player remaining from the Josh Donaldson trade, so it will be interesting to see if the Twins can continue to get value from what looked like a salary dump trade. 

Do you think the Twins will try and trade Urshela? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Brandon27]

I wouldn't trade him 

[weitz41]

We need more reliable quality players not less. If the season falls apart you can get something for him at the trade deadline.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like Gio and thought his defense was better than the metrics suggested.  I wouldn't mind keeping him as long as he does not block any of our younger players as I do not see him as the long-term option especially with his cost rising next year before FA.

If you can package him for some pitching or a power hitting corner outfield player then I would be OK with doing that.  Just make sure you do not give him away as he has value.

[terrydactyls]

The Tampa Bay model says that his trade value will at its peak this winter.  Trade him now for Cade Povich and Encarnacion-Strand.

[DJL44]

I'm still not convinced Miranda can handle 3B defensively

[chpettit19]

I wouldn't be openly working to trade him. But, as always, if the price is right you move him. I think the Twins are setup well to have him for part, or all, of 2023 before handing 3B over to Lee or Lewis (depending on how the SS situation is handled this offseason) for the foreseeable future. I like Miranda at 1B way more than at 3B. Kirilloff needs to show that surgery worked this time before I'm clearing any space for him (I hate typing that). Arraez would be my DH more often than not. That all leaves plenty of ABs at 3B for a solid major leaguer like Urshela. 

They just have too many question marks around health and young guys truly establishing themselves to move on from him simply to clear a spot. I expect Lewis, Lee, or Kirilloff (maybe even Martin is part of this group as they seem dead set on making him an IFer) to establish themselves this year. That should push Urshela off his starting spot 1 way or the other (Miranda to 3B if Kirilloff takes over 1B). But it'd take 2 of those guys establishing themselves to push him off the roster. So I say keep him unless some team is randomly looking for 31 year old, league average 3B as a key part of a package for a front line starter or back end of the bullpen shutdown arm.

[Nashvilletwin]

The Urshela trade decision might be independent of the SS sweepstakes. 

Regardless of how that transpires, it is more likely than not he remains a Twin to start the year. If we nab a top SS, it indicates we are going for it and he likely stays (and if we are contending at the deadline, he might stay the entire year). If we don’t acquire a SS, he likely stays to help platoon at SS until one or more of Lewis, Lee, and/or Martin are ready.  In this case, he might get moved at the deadline as we prep for ‘24.

He’s a solid ballplayer for sure. The question is how do you maximise value for him if it does not appear that he is part of the equation in ‘24 and beyond. This FO will not openly (nor decidedly) choose ‘23 to be a transition year to an infield (and plenty of DH) comprised of Lewis, Lee, Martin, Arreaz and Miranda - even though if all goes well that could/should be the case.

 

[ashbury]

He'll still have trade value at the deadline if he turns out to be redundant.  At the moment, he isn't.

[bigdave]

I would lean toward keeping him. Miranda gives the Twins an option at first base, which is also currently a need, unless Arraez is viewed as the answer there. Urshela does have trade value as an above average third baseman. If he can bring a top quality starting pitcher in exchange, then I'd listen to trade offers.

[Doctor Gast]

There's many variables but I see him being traded before the deadline, much like a Cruz type trade.

[TwinsDr2021]

the MLB trade simulator has him at .4.

Whcih is about the same as Megil (.3) and less than Sabato and Stashak.

So it seem like maybe the Twins could get a lower minor league guy.

[Monkeypaws]

Hope no.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

the MLB trade simulator has him at .4.

Whcih is about the same as Megil (.3) and less than Sabato and Stashak.

So it seem like maybe the Twins could get a lower minor league guy.

Yes, because he'll be paid significantly.  In the off season, trade partners probably are most concerned about price-performance.  At the deadline, it becomes more about performance, because whatever price there was is already 2/3 paid.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Package him with Sano and hope to God that's enough sweetner for another team to take the bait.

Miranda can't play third? Based on what? He spent most of this past season at first, a new position for him. If Miranda is going to be part of the "plan" he needs to be the starting 3rd baseman in 2023. None of this "utility" crap. Tell him right now he's going to be "the" hot corner guy and bat clean-up. Give him the entire off-season to prepare with those specific roles in mind. It's called focusing.

I like Urshela, but if we keep him you know damn well Rocco will again be playing roulette next season when it comes to setting game day starters and batting lineups.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Can Gio play catcher and coach 3B when not at bat?

[Dr Katz]

Doesnt matter until the manager learns how to use pitchers.

[DocBauer]

I know it sounds crazy, but questions in the OF play a part in this. And by that, I mean the questions surrounding Kirilloff. In a best case scenario, AK is a very good 1B and OK OF. That creates a great deal of roster and lineup flexibility. It's not disrespect or not believing in top young talents like Larnach and Wallner, or even a healthy rebound from Kepler, but the presence of Kirilloff affects both the OF and the INF.

IMO, Miranda will be OK at 3B, and possibly pretty good with work and experience, even though it's POSSIBLE Lee might take that spot in the near future. But that's for a possible future, and not NOW.

Arraez is not a bad 3B by most all metrics. And he did a great job at 1B while learning the spot on the fly. But to COUNT on AK is a mistake at this point. So the Twins might be better with Arraez still playing a lot of 1B and Miranda continuing to move between 1B and 3B. 

All of this tells me the very solid, good but not great, Urshela has great value to the 2023 Twins at $9M. 

He could, of course, turn out to be a decent trade chip next season. But I would only move him now if he was part of a really nice package, OR, the Twins just really needed the extra $ for a deal or combination of deals, such as a Correa deal while still trying to add someone else. Otherwise, I think his greatest value is to be part of the 2023 Twins. 

[FlyingFinn]

7 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The question is how do you maximise value for him if it does not appear that he is part of the equation in ‘24 and beyond.

Exactly! I want Rodon, Nimmo, Abreu and spend a few million on another catcher. That means we have to get rid of some salary elsewhere. Urshela will not be with the Twins in 2024. He had a good year and this is the peak of his trade value IMO. Miranda needs to be at 3B as we can't just DH him because of Buxton. If he has a poor first half in 2023, he is worth nothing.

[tony&rodney]

WAR is a fair number for relative value but it is time to totally and completely dismiss the financial value that Fangraphs, which I have read since its origination, attaches to the number. The WAR for the Twins gives us a value of more than $250 million for this years team. Enough said.

Urshela presents a dilemma because his expected contract is reasonable and he has proven to be quite a good player the last few years, but there are questions about how to allocate budget, who plays where, and do certain players have any trade value. I believe the Twins should keep Urshela if their payroll will be at or above $140 million. He is a good player and unlikely to return a prospect or player of significant value.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The WAR for the Twins gives us a value of more than $250 million for this years team. Enough said.

That sounds about right. If an expansion team was just starting out and wanted to build an 80 win team out of just free agents it would probably cost them around $250M.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That sounds about right. If an expansion team was just starting out and wanted to build an 80 win team out of just free agents it would probably cost them around $250M.

I missed what expansion team did that.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I missed what expansion team did that.

None, because an expansion team just has to exist to sell tickets for the first 3 seasons. They don't need to win.

The numbers aren't pulled out of thin air, they're the average $/win value for free agents.

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

None, because an expansion team just has to exist to sell tickets for the first 3 seasons. They don't need to win.

The numbers aren't pulled out of thin air, they're the average $/win value for free agents.

Yes, thank you. I do know how WAR is calculated. I'm aware of the idea. People often take WAR as a value of a player, however, and this is not accurate. No team would sign Urshela for $18.9 million and the Twins may part ways with a really good player like Urshela over a possible salary of $9.2 million. 

[Karbo]

I would listen to offers, but IMO he is probably worth more to the Twins than they would get in trade value. I see nothing wrong with a rotation of Arraez, Miranda, and Urshela between 1st,3rd and DH. Although things can be a bit crazy in the off season, so maybe someone steps up with an offer. Maybe a RH hitting OFer?

[Trov]

I think they will ask around about him, but will not sell him off for the cheap.  He adds some value to the team to stay with them and maybe trade in the season for a team that has an injury or someone struggles. 

[HrbieFan]

We need more professional bats, not fewer.  Miranda can play 3B, but look at this past season of injuries.  Between DH, 1B, 3B and rest, we need 4 legit bats. At this point we can not count on Alex, he needs to prove he can stay healthy before penciling him in on a regular basis. If Gio becomes not needed, we can ways deal him down the stretch,  he'd be a great addition to a team down the stretch 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, thank you. I do know how WAR is calculated. I'm aware of the idea. People often take WAR as a value of a player, however, and this is not accurate. No team would sign Urshela for $18.9 million and the Twins may part ways with a really good player like Urshela over a possible salary of $9.2 million. 

They really should give pitchers the $/WAR bonus they get as free agents. However, teams DO pay players that kind of money for that production. Evan Longoria just made $19.6M this season and wasn't as good as Urshela.

[awmonahan]

Please don't trade him for an injured pitcher. Please!

[farmerguychris]

It makes no sense to trade him or let him get away for nothing.  He is a solid defender and hitter.  We need more people like that, not less.

I don't think he'll get enough of a return (would want at least a #2 pitcher), won't cost enough to prohibit any other moves, and we need the depth of players who can stay healthy.

Why wouldn't we keep him another year?