Offseason Handbook Preview: What Will the Minnesota Twins Do at Shortstop?

[Nick Nelson]

It was never a secret, and now it's more or less official: Carlos Correa is going to opt out of his contract and re-enter free agency in search of a career-making new deal. This leaves the Twins once again needing to address a vacancy at shortstop.

So where do we go from here?

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa confirmed to a Puerto Rican newspaper last week his intent to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract and become a free agent. It comes as no surprise to the Twins' decision makers, who knew back in February they were essentially inking the star shortstop to a one-year deal.

Enlisting Correa was an exciting, and ultimately worthwhile, gambit for the front office – even if it wasn't enough to make the difference for a team doomed by injuries. Alas, this gambit amounted to kicking the can down the road when it comes to charting out the franchise's future at shortstop.

That open position now looms as a crucial linchpin in this coming offseason, and one we explore deeply in the next chapter of the Offseason Handbook. This three-part series of PDFs will be available exclusively to Twins Daily Caretakers when it drops on Tuesday. Stay dialed into your email inbox for these stories:

• Courting Carlos Correa (Again): A thorough examination of the Twins as a suitor for Correa in the open market. 
• Analyzing the Free Agent Shortstop Market: The 10 non-Correa options in free agency, ranked and profiled.
• Organizational Depth Chart: Breaking down the system's depth at shortstop, level by level.

Essentially, these pieces will equip you to answer three pivotal questions in determining the path forward at shortstop: Is re-signing Correa realistic (or wise)? If not, who else might they sign to replace him? And, perhaps most importantly, do you believe the long-term answer is already in the system?

Sign up as a Caretaker at any tier to get access to these new chapters, as well as John's back-of-the-napkin payroll analysis from last week and all future premium content to come. You can use all of the information in these chapters to build your own roster at TwinsPayroll.com.

The offseason ahead is full of weighty, complex decisions. Let's navigate them together, starting with priority number one.

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[William K Johnson]

I vote for Royce Lewis.

[TwinsDr2021]

43 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

I vote for Royce Lewis.

What is plan prior to him being healthy enough to play? and what is plan b if he isn't good?

[Thebigalguy]

If they can resign Correa to a seven year deal, do it. If not, move on like Zorro. Polanco should stay at second base, which suits him. Lewis, yes, if he's healthy. If not, it's merry-go-round time at Target Field.

[roger]

Thanks for posing the question, Nick.  Gonna be interesting seeing what the Twins do.

The Twins appear to be loaded at shortstop down on the farm.  Lewis is likely a future star, although he won't be back from his injury until mid-season at the earliest.  Martin is resurrecting his top prospect status in the AFL, although most assume he isn't strong enough defensively to be an option at short.  Lee probably can man short and is rocketing up the ladder.  Like Lewis, however, it is unlikely he would be ready for the 'show' until mid or late summer at the earliest.  Then there is the Miller kid.  It appears the organization really likes him, but he is at least three years away.

Ton of depth in the minors, but no one will be ready for opening day.  What they do will be the $64,000 question.  Or is it a $35M question?  Any thought that they would let Palacios man the position until Lewis is ready was answered last week when he was released. 

One thing I will be watching come spring is which team Martin and Lee are on and what position each is playing.

[nicksaviking]

If they can't get one of the top four shortstops, and I think they do want one, then I don't want any free agent shortstops; the rest are not starter material. Doesn't seem there's been much talk of sliding Urshela over until a young guy is ready. He seemed capable of manning the position in NY. 

[Nashvilletwin]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If they can't get one of the top four shortstops, and I think they do want one, then I don't want any free agent shortstops; the rest are not starter material. Doesn't seem there's been much talk of sliding Urshela over until a young guy is ready. He seemed capable of manning the position in NY. 

Great points. There are options (Urshela, Polanco, Gordon) for covering SS until one of Lewis, Lee or even Martin is ready. As an aside, I actually think it’s possible that those three are our starting SS (Lewis), 3B (Lee), and 2B (Martin) in 2024. With Miranda and Arraez, those five should be a solid fielding and hitting (average and power) interchangeable starting infield and DH.

Which leads to the question: is SS really our biggest position player hole where we should spend big FA dollars?

I’d suggest the answer is no. Assuming a dial moving FA would require big dollars over multiple years, then I’d say our organisation’s biggest hole is a high quality, big bat RH corner outfielder.  That’s where I’d spend the money - especially given our existing big bat RH outfielder is probably a 100-120 games per season player. 

 

[farmerguychris]

Find a filler until Lewis is ready.  Can be in-house (Gordon, Urshela) or a mid-level low cost FA.  Spend our dollars on top tier pitching as we already have the depth so coveted by many teams - just not many sure bets.  Spend pitching for both starters and the pen over SS.  Correa proved a star SS isn't enough to carry a team to the playoffs - a star pitcher however may have greater impact.

[D.C Twins]

They should use their money elsewhere for pitching and catcher. They have to trust that an internal longe term option will be available by mid-season and not block them (I'm looking at you Lee and Lewis) 

[darin617]

Jose Iglesias should be the target for the Twins this offseason. Nothing flashy but he would be a cheap fill in until one of the minor leaguers are either healthy or ready.

[TwinsDr2021]

47 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Great points. There are options (Urshela, Polanco, Gordon) for covering SS until one of Lewis, Lee or even Martin is ready. As an aside, I actually think it’s possible that those three are our starting SS (Lewis), 3B (Lee), and 2B (Martin) in 2024. With Miranda and Arraez, those five should be a solid fielding and hitting (average and power) interchangeable starting infield and DH.

Which leads to the question: is SS really our biggest position player hole where we should spend big FA dollars?

I’d suggest the answer is no. Assuming a dial moving FA would require big dollars over multiple years, then I’d say our organisation’s biggest hole is a high quality, big bat RH corner outfielder.  That’s where I’d spend the money - especially given our existing big bat RH outfielder is probably a 100-120 games per season player. 

 

Best right handed free agent outfielders. Judge, Myers, Duvall, Haniger, Pham, Profar (switch), Pincer, Pillar, Hermosillo, Brinson, Wilson. Doesn't seem much outside of Judge there is an right handed free agent outfielder.

Actually seems like a weak free agent class every where (which might explain why they went for Gray and Mahle)

 

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Jose Iglesias should be the target for the Twins this offseason. Nothing flashy but he would be a cheap fill in until one of the minor leaguers are either healthy or ready.

I think I'd rather do Urshela. At least his bat is somewhat passable, and he's already under contract.

Also, while I know knee injuries aren't the end of the world for hitters, I think everyone is making too many assumptions about Lewis' timeframe to return. The team likely won't have a reasonable ETA on his recovery until AFTER they need to make a decision about SS next year.

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think I'd rather do Urshela. At least his bat is somewhat passable, and he's already under contract.

Also, while I know knee injuries aren't the end of the world for hitters, I think everyone is making too many assumptions about Lewis' timeframe to return. The team likely won't have a reasonable ETA on his recovery until AFTER they need to make a decision about SS next year.

Also don't you think he will go to the minors at least for a bit prior to being inserted as an everyday major league SS?

[Nashvilletwin]

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Best right handed free agent outfielders. Judge, Myers, Duvall, Haniger, Pham, Profar (switch), Pincer, Pillar, Hermosillo, Brinson, Wilson. Doesn't seem much outside of Judge seem like there is an right handed free agent outfielder.

Actually seems like a weak free agent class every where (which might explain why they went for Gray and Mahle)

 

May need to be patient. Could be a trade solution. But, I think organisationally, big bat RH corner OF is our biggest hole from a mid-term perspective.

I love Gray, but not convinced he won’t seek a trade if our 5 inning starter strategy stays in place. He will be in a contract year and (deservedly) eager to show that he’s more than a two times through the order guy in order to get the big bucks. Unfortunately, I have the under on Mahle ever really contributing. I so hope I’m wrong.

[roger]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

If they can't get one of the top four shortstops, and I think they do want one, then I don't want any free agent shortstops; the rest are not starter material. Doesn't seem there's been much talk of sliding Urshela over until a young guy is ready. He seemed capable of manning the position in NY. 

Can't remember which writer it was, but read an article in the Strib over the weekend that they would likely slide Polanco over to short until Lewis is ready.  Expect they have reasonable contact with the Twins FO, so this may be a real option.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

May need to be patient. Could be a trade solution. But, I think organisationally, big bat RH corner OF is our biggest hole from a mid-term perspective.

I love Gray, but not convinced he won’t seek a trade if our 5 inning starter strategy stays in place. He will be in a contract year and (deservedly) eager to show that he’s more than a two times through the order guy in order to get the big bucks. Unfortunately, I have the under on Mahle ever really contributing. I so hope I’m wrong.

This is MLB, not the NBA, Gray won't get a trade just because he wants one.

[Vanimal46]

Go sign one of the top 4 free agent SS. I don’t really care who they end up signing out of Turner, Swanson, Boegarts, and Correa. It just needs to be done. There’s plenty of room in the budget for the long term commitment. 

[jmlease1]

I would go hard at Correa. He wants 7 years? I'd do it. He insists on 8? No problem. He wants AAV of $40M? ok, I'm probably out. $30-35M AAV? I'm interested. I start to wobble when the AAV tops $35M.

I'll be very curious to see what the market is for Correa. There are obviously teams that will be interested, but there might not be a lot of big market, unlimited payroll teams. Yankees might balk at paying for Judge & Correa in the same year. Dodgers are likely to try to keep their guy. Same for the Red Sox, and even if Bogaerts moves on, they already have Trevor Story that they could slide over. (especially since Story prefers playing SS) Cubs should be in the mix, but the Mets already have Lindor. Phillies could be in it, but Cards won't. Giants? Mariners?

Twins make as much sense as anyone, except for the assumption that they won't spend the money or commit the years. It'll be interesting to see what the range is on this one, and whether his AAV comes down a little with additional years or not. Boras won't give anyone a discount, that's for sure.

 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Can't remember which writer it was, but read an article in the Strib over the weekend that they would likely slide Polanco over to short until Lewis is ready.  Expect they have reasonable contact with the Twins FO, so this may be a real option.

This stinks worse than '21, when they got rid of Rosario & depended on Cave to man LF & sub CF with expectancy for Larnach & Kiriloff to help out. They put too much dependency on Cave which they should have known that this wouldn't work out especially in CF and 2 unknowns Larnach & Kiriloff. Result was a hugh chasm in the OF, that couldn't be filled.

Here they are depending on sub par SS Polanco which more than likely get hurt (because SS is too hard on him physically), limp along until Lewis is ready & be lost for the whole season, Who will man 2B? Arraez? Arraez has no range, With the banning of the shift, GBs will bleed through the INF like a sieve. Along with Jeffers manning behind the plate (runners will run at will) and if they don't solve the absense of long relief, their whole pitching staff will absolutely blow up shortly after the season begins. Long before Lewis is ready to play.

If they are so blind as to follow through with their stupid "plan", I'll stop following the Twins. Because they are following the same course as the "twinkies", that almost forced the Twins out of MN. And this time there'll be no Carl Pohlad to bail them out!

[Doctor Gast]

My choice if they don't seriously pursue Correa is to get Kiner-Falefa back will need an above par SS, especially with the banning of the shift . NYY have 2 SSs ready to take over (they actually didn't use him there that often this season). 

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

This is MLB, not the NBA, Gray won't get a trade just because he wants one.

Not saying he will get one. Just saying he might seek one.  He opens the season with the Twins and will stay probably up to the deadline at least depending on if we are contending.  On the margin, I’d prefer to have players committed to both individual and organisational success.  I’d think Gray would satisfy both of those preferences with a little more of an open mind from the manager.

[wsnydes]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Go sign one of the top 4 free agent SS. I don’t really care who they end up signing out of Turner, Swanson, Boegarts, and Correa. It just needs to be done. There’s plenty of room in the budget for the long term commitment. 

This is how I'd approach it as well.  After those four, I have little interest in any of the other options.

Not signing someone has it's risks though.  We have no idea where Lewis is on his recovery and we don't know what he'll have when he does come back.  I know Urshela can play some SS, so I can live with that in the short term more than I can tolerate Polanco there.

[Cris E]

You need a middle infielder that can play a lot. Lewis won't be around for the first half, and Polanco is hardly guaranteed to stay healthy anymore.  Gordon should be playing CF 2-3 days a week to cover for Buxton, so he won't he available full time either.  

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, wsnydes said:

This is how I'd approach it as well.  After those four, I have little interest in any of the other options.

Not signing someone has it's risks though.  We have no idea where Lewis is on his recovery and we don't know what he'll have when he does come back.  I know Urshela can play some SS, so I can live with that in the short term more than I can tolerate Polanco there.

Relying on Lewis is the biggest risk of all IMO. It’s like the Aaron Hicks situation all over again. Clearing a freeway for him to win the starting job, and if he fails, there’s no one besides Rob Refsnyder types to replace him. 

Ideally I want a long term solution at SS, then Lewis when he’s ready to go can play CF and fill in at SS/3B. Because let’s be honest, we need a real solution when Buxton misses 50% of the games. Celestino as a sub .600 OPS player ain’t it. 

[wsnydes]

46 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Relying on Lewis is the biggest risk of all IMO. It’s like the Aaron Hicks situation all over again. Clearing a freeway for him to win the starting job, and if he fails, there’s no one besides Rob Refsnyder types to replace him. 

Ideally I want a long term solution at SS, then Lewis when he’s ready to go can play CF and fill in at SS/3B. Because let’s be honest, we need a real solution when Buxton misses 50% of the games. Celestino as a sub .600 OPS player ain’t it. 

I'm not necessarily opposed to a stopgap, but they have to be something more than serviceable.  The problem is that I don't know who that would be.  A long term solution would be nice since this team hasn't had a legit, long term solution for too long.

I'm still hoping that Martin can figure things out and help out at CF.  That's obviously also not without risk.

Ideally, right now anyway, I think I'd move Urshela over to SS.  Miranda to 3B.  Kirilloff to 1B.  At least there are more options for 1B than the left side of the infield.  Leave Polanco at 2B.

[Dave The Dastardly]

We've been talking about shortstop for the last what? Five years? In the meantime our pitching staff leaks homeruns, can barely find the plate some days and creates banner headlines when a guy actually pitches into the 6th.

Take that Correa money and get a "real" pitcher; not a has-been, not a surgery waiting to happen. If he's good we won't notice who's playing short. Of course we'll have to convince him Rocco will let him go for the no-no and not pull him in the fifth...

[DocBauer]

NOT saying I don't want Correa back for 7 or 8yrs at around $30-ish per year. I'm a fan! 

But I have to keep wondering if that money isn't still spent better all around the mound and diamond instead? I understand Maeda is probably off the books come 2024. Maybe the same for Gray or Mahle, but they are less certain. And it's debatable still as to whether Martin sticks there or not. Same for Lee. I still think a healthy Lewis probably trumps both those guys. I'm just saying, keeping Fulmer or adding someone as good or better, adding another quality arm via trade or FA, etc, is the payroll for Correa possibly spent better when spread around?

On the side of a fill-in to at least begin 2023, Iglesias and Andrus are the solid but lesser options. As I understand it, Andrus did. It meet qualification for his $15M option. Despite a comeback year in 2022, at 34yo, Andrus is just still not going to earn anything close to that in 2023.

What's interesting to me is that while Andrus would seem to be the better offensive player between himself and Iglesias, more overall power and, at least previously, more speed, the two of them have very similar quad slash lines for their careers as well as career OPS÷. And I was shocked to see that, unless Bassball Reference is wrong somehow. So to me, Iglesias would seem the smarter choice just based on performance and previous earnings.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

We've been talking about shortstop for the last what? Five years? In the meantime our pitching staff leaks homeruns, can barely find the plate some days and creates banner headlines when a guy actually pitches into the 6th.

Take that Correa money and get a "real" pitcher; not a has-been, not a surgery waiting to happen. If he's good we won't notice who's playing short. Of course we'll have to convince him Rocco will let him go for the no-no and not pull him in the fifth...

That isn’t a thing in this year’s free agency class. Spending a ton of money for free agent pitching is also not what this front office was hired to do. 

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I'm not necessarily opposed to a stopgap, but they have to be something more than serviceable.  The problem is that I don't know who that would be.  A long term solution would be nice since this team hasn't had a legit, long term solution for too long.

I'm still hoping that Martin can figure things out and help out at CF.  That's obviously also not without risk.

Ideally, right now anyway, I think I'd move Urshela over to SS.  Miranda to 3B.  Kirilloff to 1B.  At least there are more options for 1B than the left side of the infield.  Leave Polanco at 2B.

I think that Kirilloff and Polanco should be in the questionable category and get someone with a healthy track record and proven performnce in LF, 2B, 1B, C. My 2023 payroll projection has Binentendi in LF, Pederson in RF, Abreuu at 1b, Contreras at C and comes in at 140.1 M

[wsnydes]

7 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I think that Kirilloff and Polanco should be in the questionable category and get someone with a healthy track record and proven performnce in LF, 2B, 1B, C. My 2023 payroll projection has Binentendi in LF, Pederson in RF, Abreuu at 1b, Contreras at C and comes in at 140.1 M

Kirilloff definitely needs to be, which I tried to elude to.  Polanco seems to be to fading towards the twilight of his career, which is why I don't want him near SS.