whosafraidofluigirussolo’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

This roster blueprint was thrown at the wall with the idea that this team has some legitimately promising depth, but that depth is highly volatile due to inexperience or injuries, so some stability, reliability and experience is needed. The idea was to raise the ceiling of the roster with at least one big move, and to raise the floor in several other places.

Big move: Carlos Rodón, 4 or 5 years at $21M/year
He's answered a lot of the health questions that surrounded him this year and the Twins supposedly have engaged with him as a free agent before. Adding to this rotation makes more sense to do at the top than the bottom. This move still feels like a gamble on Rodón's health, but I believe this is the best place on the roster to invest serious cash.

Wouldn't it be funny if... move: Max Kepler to the Yankees for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Aaron Hicks
Last offseason, the Yankees wanted IKF enough to take a salary the Twins wanted to clear in order to get him. This offseason, the Twins make the counter-move...

The Twins' biggest positional need is a shortstop, but likely only for a year (I'm betting that between Lewis and Lee, there will be one home-grown MLB SS ready by late 2023.) Arguably another significant need is a righty-hitting outfielder who can hit better than Celestino and can play defense better than Garlick. Hicks hits better from the right side and still plays CF credibly.
Even so, I get the sense that even the deep-pocketed Yankees would be ready to move on from Hicks, who is no longer a full-time starter in New York and has 3 years left on his contract. And their top prospect Volpe is about ready to take over at shortstop. I almost made this a pure salary dump with the Twins sending a mid-level prospect, but Kepler's defense and lefty bat seem to make sense for the Yankees, and clearing his salary commitment (still smaller than Hicks') helps the Twins too.

Bullpen upgrade: Rafael Montero for $4.5M
I think some investment happens here, but not a big investment. Montero has been a setup guy, he's been good more often than he's been bad, and this is just a little more than he's been making the last few years.
I also looked at some part-time starting pitchers who had had recent success in limited time in the bullpen—Eflin from the Phillies, Nick Martinez from the Padres—thinking a swingman/6th starter would help this roster. However, I'm guessing these guys will look for a chance to start and/or to re-up with their more successful current teams.

Depth moves:
Another infield-oriented utility player in Harrison. It seems like the Twins trust Gordon just as much in the OF as in the IF at this point, and Celestino could use some polish to his offensive game at AAA.
Casali as a backup catcher.
Winder goes back to the minors to see if he can stay on track as a starter or should prepare for the bullpen longer term. Megill and Morán are ready to sink or swim in the majors.

Accounting for injuries:
With the uncertainty around Mahle and Maeda, I'm just guessing one of them isn't ready out of the gate in spring. I went with Maeda for opening day; I'm a fan and maybe not totally objective, but I believe in a bounce-back from him and I'm uncertain about Mahle's shoulder.
Mahle is still tendered and his salary is accounted for. If and when he is healthy, this is a significant boost to rotation depth.
Kirilloff is listed as backup OF but would get plenty of run in the corners and 1B if he's healthy, and would probably be replaced on the roster altogether if he's really not healthy.
 

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M)
• 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M)
• 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M)
• SS: Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($6.5M)
• LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Aaron Hicks ($10.8M)
• DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M)
• 4th OF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M)
• Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M)
• Utility: Josh Harrison ($4.5M)
• Backup ? Curt Casali ($3.0M)
• SP1: Carlos Rodon ($21.0M)
• SP2: Sonny Gray ($12.0M)
• SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M)
• RP: Jovani Moran ($0.7M)
• RP: Trevor Megill ($0.7M)
• RP: Rafael Montero ($4.5M)

Tendered, not listed: Tyler Mahle ($8.0 M)

Payroll is 7.86% under budget

[solomon1930]

I bet Wallner can produce what Hicks would at a fraction of the price. 

[Major League Ready]

IKF was not very good this year.  I would rather take my chances with Martin at SS.  At least that move has some upside potential and long-term benefit if it works out.

[stringer bell]

My #1 free agent target for the Twins is Rodon. I don't think the Twins would be interested in Aaron Hicks for about $10M per year unless the Yankees paid his salary. As far as IKF goes, he accumulated 2.9 WAR (per BBRef) despite an 84 OPS+ and will be eligible for arbitration this year. Unless the Yankees non-tender him (doubtful), I don't think the Twins will be interested in IKF in a trade.

[ashbury]

13 hours ago, solomon1930 said:

I bet Wallner can produce what Hicks would at a fraction of the price. 

They are not similar players at all and would occupy different roles if on the same roster.

[solomon1930]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

They are not similar players at all and would occupy different roles if on the same roster.

Sure, whatever you say, LOL.

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, solomon1930 said:

Sure, whatever you say, LOL.

Good!

I mean, are you saying you would use Wallner as a backup for Buxton?

[laloesch]

On 10/17/2022 at 11:00 AM, stringer bell said:

My #1 free agent target for the Twins is Rodon. I don't think the Twins would be interested in Aaron Hicks for about $10M per year unless the Yankees paid his salary. As far as IKF goes, he accumulated 2.9 WAR (per BBRef) despite an 84 OPS+ and will be eligible for arbitration this year. Unless the Yankees non-tender him (doubtful), I don't think the Twins will be interested in IKF in a trade.

 

I think Rodon is a good start.  Would also be real nice if they could make a pass at Willson Contreras?  5 years 120 million?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

Good!

I mean, are you saying you would use Wallner as a backup for Buxton?

TBH, I wouldn’t sign Hicks to be a backup for Buxton either, but I’d druther Hicks in CF than Wallner

[Game7-91]

Liking Rodon and Montero additions, pitching is still numero uno needs improvement if Twins want to move the needle to legitimacy.

Position roster just feels like a mess (generally speaking, not soecific to your ideas here)of a jigsaw puzzle where 1/2 the pieces dont fit with anything else. I like your creativity trying to address the need in of and ss especially. 

 

[solomon1930]

On 10/18/2022 at 11:47 AM, ashbury said:

Good!

I mean, are you saying you would use Wallner as a backup for Buxton?

Wallner was brought up in 2022 to replace Kepler in RF and get his feet wet,

who said anything about him backing up Buxton????  Not me.

Gordon and Celestino backed up CF in 2022 and that probably continues in 2023.

  

 

 

[Riverbrian]

Whoever backs up Buxton isn't a back up. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, solomon1930 said:

Wallner was brought up in 2022 to replace Kepler in RF and get his feet wet,

who said anything about him backing up Buxton????  Not me.

Gordon and Celestino backed up CF in 2022 and that probably continues in 2023.

  

 

On 10/16/2022 at 11:54 PM, solomon1930 said:

I bet Wallner can produce what Hicks would at a fraction of the price. 

Ahem…..

[Greglw3]

On 10/18/2022 at 11:25 AM, laloesch said:

 

I think Rodon is a good start.  Would also be real nice if they could make a pass at Willson Contreras?  5 years 120 million?

I think that’s the way to go. I had Contreras at C, Binentendi in LF and Joc Pederson in RF. Buxton backed up by Billy Hamilton. Concessions:  Austin Martin at SS (imagine, Buxton, Gordon, Hamilton, Martin all stealing bases a/la the Guardians).

[Greglw3]

11 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Whoever backs up Buxton isn't a back up. 

I have Billy Hamilton as his backup. Probably won’t happen but his defense and stolen base ability can be so good as to make him a plus even if he doesn’t hit real well. That said, he is a .239 career hitter. Better than Celestino in my estimation.

[Greglw3]

On 10/18/2022 at 9:22 PM, Game7-91 said:

Liking Rodon and Montero additions, pitching is still numero uno needs improvement if Twins want to move the needle to legitimacy.

Position roster just feels like a mess (generally speaking, not soecific to your ideas here)of a jigsaw puzzle where 1/2 the pieces dont fit with anything else. I like your creativity trying to address the need in of and ss especially. 

 

I tried to clean things up with Contreras, Binentendi in LF, Buxton in CF (Billy Hamilton) and Joc Pederson if RF with Austin Martin at SS and Abreu at 1B, Arraez at 2B, Urshela at 3B. 140.1 MM total. Kirilloff and Larnach waiting in the wings assuming 1 or both are healthy.

[laloesch]

57 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I tried to clean things up with Contreras, Binentendi in LF, Buxton in CF (Billy Hamilton) and Joc Pederson if RF with Austin Martin at SS and Abreu at 1B, Arraez at 2B, Urshela at 3B. 140.1 MM total. Kirilloff and Larnach waiting in the wings assuming 1 or both are healthy.

 

Agreed.  I'd like to see them grab a catcher and a veteran quality starter to start.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I have Billy Hamilton as his backup. Probably won’t happen but his defense and stolen base ability can be so good as to make him a plus even if he doesn’t hit real well. That said, he is a .239 career hitter. Better than Celestino in my estimation.

Hamilton was basically gathering dust on the bench in September. Rocco only used him for pinch running despite Cave and Celestino being below average... nowhere near good enough for a team fighing for a playoff spot.  

Rocco turned to Cave and Celestino over and over again to below average results. If Rocco doesn't trust Hamilton to be an improvement over bad performance, I can't recommend a continuation of the relationship. 

I agree through... His defense and stolen base ability is good but we need a hitter more than we need OF defense.

Whoever is backing up Buxton is going to play a lot. ?   

 

[Greglw3]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

Hamilton was basically gathering dust on the bench in September. Rocco only used him for pinch running despite Cave and Celestino being below average... nowhere near good enough for a team fighing for a playoff spot.  

Rocco turned to Cave and Celestino over and over again to below average results. If Rocco doesn't trust Hamilton to be an improvement over bad performance, I can't recommend a continuation of the relationship. 

I agree through... His defense and stolen base ability is good but we need a hitter more than we need OF defense.

Whoever is backing up Buxton is going to play a lot. ?   

 

I agree with you we need another hitter. My plan adds Contreras, Binentendi, Pederson, Abreu.

I draw an analogy to when Buxton was hitting .160 about 4-5 yrs ago and I had no doubt he was elevating the team with his stunning defense and stolen bases. He’s the only hitter hitting .160 that I would have said that about in my lifetime. He opened my eyes.

With Hamilton stealing 10/11 bases in very limited time, it appears to me he still has the chops he had when he stole 50-60 bases 4 times. I have no doubt at 32 that his defense would be in a category with his past defense.

I felt strongly that Baldelli completely mismanaged him.

But your point is a good one. If Baldelli, for whatever reason, used him the way he did in 2022, then he probably would not use him according to my vision in 2023. So back to the drawing board.

I’m a big Billy Hamilton fan because of the things I’ve seen him do on the baseball field. To me, his talent is electrifying with a career BA above Kepler and Cave and maybe Celestino. Disappointment has long been a thing I’ve had to live with as a Twins fan, having grown up in the Calvin Griffith years when he let Bostock, Bill Campbell, Rod Carew, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Dave Goltz all leave only for the virtually worthless package he got for Carew.

And yet I’m still as avid a fan as ever!

[stringer bell]

Hamilton hasn't been trusted to hit in some time. Yes, he supplies elite base running and really good defense, but he really isn't a big league hitter any more, if he ever was. He was an ideal guy to add as a 28th player and come in to run for one of the Twins several slow runners. They really didn't get many chances to use Hamilton when he could change the game. Hamilton is a free agent. I doubt that he will get a major league contract.

[RpR]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Hamilton hasn't been trusted to hit in some time. Yes, he supplies elite base running and really good defense, but he really isn't a big league hitter any more, if he ever was. He was an ideal guy to add as a 28th player and come in to run for one of the Twins several slow runners. They really didn't get many chances to use Hamilton when he could change the game. Hamilton is a free agent. I doubt that he will get a major league contract.

When Billy was with the White Sox in 2021 his OBP was .242 and Slg .378 this year Celestinos was OBP .313 and Slg .302;  Celestino had 6 erros in 2 years, , in 10 years, Billy has had 10 errors.

Keeping him for his well above average defense is worth what little he might make and better than watching rookies show they belong in the minors.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with Rodon.  But the Giants SPEND, so would they let him get away ?  We need a starting catcher (Jeffers is a backup).  I'm not as down on IKF as some.  I'd be fine with him as a bridge to Lewis/Lee/Miller, but I'm not interested in Hicks at all.  He's the Yankees problem...they can have him.  The Montero investment is solid.  A good non-Correa solution at SS could be Bogaerts.  Certainly not the Glove (but adequate) but a better, more consistent bat than Correa and at a $175-$200 price ($100-$125 million or more LESS than Carlos).  Good work on this whosafraid !  Keep them coming.  

[RpR]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree with Rodon.  But the Giants SPEND, so would they let him get away ?  We need a starting catcher (Jeffers is a backup).  I'm not as down on IKF as some.  I'd be fine with him as a bridge to Lewis/Lee/Miller, but I'm not interested in Hicks at all.  He's the Yankees problem...they can have him.  The Montero investment is solid.  A good non-Correa solution at SS could be Bogaerts.  Certainly not the Glove (but adequate) but a better, more consistent bat than Correa and at a $175-$200 price ($100-$125 million or more LESS than Carlos).  Good work on this whosafraid !  Keep them coming.  

Send Jeffers down the road and keep Sanchez or Leon as back-up.