The Single Biggest Flaw with This Minnesota Twins Front Office

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This entire post could be a copy paste from the same time last year. 2022 was supposedly the development year, and very little of that happened, yet here we are, talking about "next year," and "potential." 

Very little happened?  I look at this in terms of what did they establish and how many do they have in the pipeline that moved forward in terms of establishing they are legit prospects.  Put a different way, how many guys stock improved.  Let’s start with what players established themselves as MLB pitchers.

Starting Pitching – Ryan proved he was for real.  Ober established himself but also demonstrated there is reason to believe he has a higher ceiling than we thought.  He developed a new slider that sure looked like it’s going to change his trajectory.  Relief Pitching - Duran is a great high leverage RP.  Jax established himself as a solid BP piece and we should remember Alcala will be back next year.  I would not describe establishing 4 new pitchers as very little but it’s not everything I hoped for either.

The emergence of Varland / Winder and the development of SWR is also something.  No, they have no established themselves at the ML level but they sure looked legit.  It will be huge if they are ready to take over the spots vacated by Gray and Mahle next year so that’s actually lining up nicely.  Henriquez / Megill and Moran also gave us reason to believe they could contribute.  

All of this does not equate to “very little” IMO.

[Thebigalguy]

Baldelli is a robot. He coaches by stats. It's one reason why Cleveland, with the elder whiz Terry Francona at the helm, whizzed past the moribund Twins as if they were standing still. Francona uses stats but also his experience. These Twins reclamation projects seldom pay off. As for Pagan, one definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing when it doesn't work. By that rubric, the FO and Baldelli are insane. There's no excuse for the Twin collapse in September. Losing 7 of 8 at crunch time to Cleveland is unforgivable. What I don't know is whether Baldelli is as robotic as he seems or whether that's his contract with the FO and he doesn't dare veer from it for fear of unemployment.

[Brandon]

7 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This entire post could be a copy paste from the same time last year. 2022 was supposedly the development year, and very little of that happened, yet here we are, talking about "next year," and "potential." 

lots of development happened.  just not enough at the major league level.  Duran and Jax developed into good relievers.  Ryan into a good starter.  

Winder and Ober were taking steps forward but spent most of the season injured. Paddack too but not from the farm but from a trade.  

in the minors, Woods-Richardson, Varland, and maybe Henriquez developed to the point of making their debuts this season.  and they looked good in them.  

Strottman and Balazovich went backwards.  I think Enlow held steady maybe inched forward a little.  Testa looks like a good prospect moving forward.  

So i don't know how you are judging the development.  is it a finished product yet?  no.  but progress was made and the reasons stated by me above are why we are not yet a finished product so that is why i say give them 2 more years to see what happens.  Clearly if there is a total system failure next year the following year shouldnt be guarenteed.  but from what I see at this time, there are numbers of pitching prospects heading our way and we just need to be a little patient to see what happens.  

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Hopefully with the stable of young starting pitchers that got MLB innings this year and those coming off the injured list we can avoid  signing veterans off of the scrap heap this year and actually move towards a quality starting rotation with some depth.

[Minny505]

It seems like the allure of being the GM that signs the next 2022 version of Jose Quintana or Johnny Cueto is irresistible to these guys. 

While this is certainly possible, as a few guys signed on $6mil-ish on a one year contract break out every year, but the percentage of those deals handed out each offseason, that actually play out the way you dream, is so rare. You would need to sign a dozen of those guys to find one or two. It's just not worth the risk.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Very little happened?  I look at this in terms of what did they establish and how many do they have in the pipeline that moved forward in terms of establishing they are legit prospects.  Put a different way, how many guys stock improved.  Let’s start with what players established themselves as MLB pitchers.

Starting Pitching – Ryan proved he was for real.  Ober established himself but also demonstrated there is reason to believe he has a higher ceiling than we thought.  He developed a new slider that sure looked like it’s going to change his trajectory.  Relief Pitching - Duran is a great high leverage RP.  Jax established himself as a solid BP piece and we should remember Alcala will be back next year.  I would not describe establishing 4 new pitchers as very little but it’s not everything I hoped for either.

The emergence of Varland / Winder and the development of SWR is also something.  No, they have no established themselves at the ML level but they sure looked legit.  It will be huge if they are ready to take over the spots vacated by Gray and Mahle next year so that’s actually lining up nicely.  Henriquez / Megill and Moran also gave us reason to believe they could contribute.  

All of this does not equate to “very little” IMO.

I'm totally uninterested in minor league movement and reshuffling prospect rankings in the system. Did they contribute at the major league level, and if so, how much? 

Ryan wasn't a prospect. People need to stop acting like the Twins didn't trade for a MLB ready starter and plug him into the rotation. Great trade, not a product of the Twins system. This. Team. Did. Not. Develop. Joe. Ryan. The only thing Ober established is that his injury issues are always going to be a concern. He threw a whopping 56 innings and missed 4 months. Jax and Duran each ended up having pretty nice (great in the case of Duran) seasons. 

Winder with his 4.70 ERA and inability generate Ks looked legit? He's also been on the IL 3 times in the last year with shoulder issues. Ditto for Varland, he started 5 games, he's a total question mark going into next year. Megill? He was flat out unusable at times. Henriquez was battered as a starter in AAA, he threw 11 innings for the Twins, and now the hope is he has some utility in the bullpen. You're reaching so far on some of this. 

The Twins didn't have a single young pitcher graduate and hold onto a spot on the major league staff. Not one. We saw Chi Chi Gonzalez making starts near mid season, and Aaron Sanchez making starts in August & September when this club was trying to hold on atop the division. They also spent the trade deadline trying to plug pitching holes; that doesn't happen if the Twins had this supposed wealth of players establishing themselves. 

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm totally uninterested in minor league movement and reshuffling prospect rankings in the system. Did they contribute at the major league level, and if so, how much? 

Ryan wasn't a prospect. People need to stop acting like the Twins didn't trade for a MLB ready starter and plug him into the rotation. Great trade, not a product of the Twins system. This. Team. Did. Not. Develop. Joe. Ryan. The only thing Ober established is that his injury issues are always going to be a concern. He threw a whopping 56 innings and missed 4 months. Jax and Duran each ended up having pretty nice (great in the case of Duran) seasons. 

Winder with his 4.70 ERA and inability generate Ks looked legit? He's also been on the IL 3 times in the last year with shoulder issues. Ditto for Varland, he started 5 games, he's a total question mark going into next year. Megill? He was flat out unusable at times. Henriquez was battered as a starter in AAA, he threw 11 innings for the Twins, and now the hope is he has some utility in the bullpen. You're reaching so far on some of this. 

The Twins didn't have a single young pitcher graduate and hold onto a spot on the major league staff. Not one. We saw Chi Chi Gonzalez making starts near mid season, and Aaron Sanchez making starts in August & September when this club was trying to hold on atop the division. They also spent the trade deadline trying to plug pitching holes; that doesn't happen if the Twins had this supposed wealth of players establishing themselves. 

I don't care how they acquire the talent.  They gave up nothing and got something substantial.  Duran graduated in a big way.  Jax looked like nothing and became something.  Ober displayed a higher ceiling.  Varland and SWR demonstrated they are likely to be part of the future.  Moran looks like something.  Therefore, something of significance happened. You are only interested in finding a way to complain, not what actually happened. 

[KirbyDome89]

36 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't care how they acquire the talent.  They gave up nothing and got something substantial.  Duran graduated in a big way.  Jax looked like nothing and became something.  Ober displayed a higher ceiling.  Varland and SWR demonstrated they are likely to be part of the future.  Moran looks like something.  Therefore, something of significance happened. You are only interested in finding a way to complain, not what actually happened. 

Me neither, but you don't get to trade for a finished product and claim development; that's all.

No, they haven't "demonstrated they're likely to be part of the future," unless you simply mean they'll get a shot.

You're tossing out Ronny Henriquez and Trevor Megill as examples of players emerging or developing, but sure, I'm the one being unreasonable. Reality is a tough pill to swallow I guess....

[Major League Ready]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Me neither, but you don't get to trade for a finished product and claim development; that's all.

No, they haven't "demonstrated they're likely to be part of the future," unless you simply mean they'll get a shot.

You're tossing out Ronny Henriquez and Trevor Megill as examples of players emerging or developing, but sure, I'm the one being unreasonable. Reality is a tough pill to swallow I guess....

I gave absolutely no significance to Henriquez and Megill.  Simply said they gave us reason to hope.  You are not interested in an accurate account and you can't say all you care about is what transpires at the ML level and then refuse to give the organization credit for making something happen.  You consistently frame everything in whatever way allows you to bitch about the front office and proclaim to have a better understand then they do as to what should be done.  If that were true, you would we working in a front office somewhere instead of proclaiming your wisdom here.  

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I gave absolutely no significance to Henriquez and Megill.  Simply said they gave us reason to hope.  You are not interested in an accurate account and you can't say all you care about is what transpires at the ML level and then refuse to give the organization credit for making something happen.  You consistently frame everything in whatever way allows you to bitch about the front office and proclaim to have a better understand then they do as to what should be done.  If that were true, you would we working in a front office somewhere instead of proclaiming your wisdom here.  

Odd that you'd mention them amongst the emerging/legit group, but ok. I very clearly acknowledged the season both Jax and Duran had so credit was given where it was due. I also pointed out the Twins failed to bring up a single arm that stuck over the course of the entire season, a point which you continue to ignore. 

I was wondering when your classic appeal to the FO's authority would show up; it didn't take too long this time.

[Trov]

I disagree with the argument that we should have cut Bundy and Archer and run out Varland and SWR or others sooner.  We already went through several SP going on IL.  Paddock, Ober, Winder, all had long stints on IL, Gray had a few, Ryan had one.  Archer ended on it.  Had we dumped Bundy and Archer early on, and SWR, who was on IL in minors for a month, or Varland landed on IL, then we maybe would have had to add even younger guys to 40 man.  Then when we need to cut down after the 60 day IL guys we could look to lose some of the younger guys to waivers.  That is something to keep in mind as well.  

[Brandon]

On 10/17/2022 at 1:56 AM, KirbyDome89 said:

This entire post could be a copy paste from the same time last year. 2022 was supposedly the development year, and very little of that happened, yet here we are, talking about "next year," and "potential." 

You must have missed this part of my statement.  "Going into 2023 we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Henriguez,  Balazovich, and Testa and Dobnak is there somewhere, Duran, Moran, Jax.  So they are getting pitching developed."

Ryan, Jax and Duran have already broken out.  Winder, Ober,Moran, have had some success and Woods Richardson, Varland, and Henriguez had successful debuts so it seems the pitching pipeline is on the brink of lots of success.  hence the call for patience.

 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

You must have missed this part of my statement.  "Going into 2023 we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Henriguez,  Balazovich, and Testa and Dobnak is there somewhere, Duran, Moran, Jax.  So they are getting pitching developed."

Ryan, Jax and Duran have already broken out.  Winder, Ober,Moran, have had some success and Woods Richardson, Varland, and Henriguez had successful debuts so it seems the pitching pipeline is on the brink of lots of success.  hence the call for patience.

 

No, I opted not to respond because you're just listing names. It "seemed like the pipeline was on the brink of lots of success," last offseason too, hence my point about these posts evoking deja vu. 

Clip Canterino, Strotman, and Sands. Copy & paste Festa, Henriquez, Varland. Double dip on Balazovic. Sprinkle in some Dobnak despite the fact he hasn't been effective for 3 years. Voila. 

[Brandon]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No, I opted not to respond because you're just listing names. It "seemed like the pipeline was on the brink of lots of success," last offseason too, hence my point about these posts evoking deja vu. 

Clip Canterino, Strotman, and Sands. Copy & paste Festa, Henriquez, Varland. Double dip on Balazovic. Sprinkle in some Dobnak despite the fact he hasn't been effective for 3 years. Voila. 

The names coming into this season were Ober as the closest to being established, Ryan with a solid debut, Winder, Balazovich were hopefully ready to take the next step.  and Duran, Woods-Richardson, Petty, Sands, Dobnak, Strottman, Canterino, were still developing.  That is a lot farther behind then where we are now.  

Last year:

Ober was close to being established

Ryan had a good debut to go into 2022

all other prospects are still developing.  some are close, some are far away

This year:

Ryan, Jax, and Duran have broker out, Ober has had success in 2 successive season and is an effective big leaguer at this point.

Winder, Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Henriguez had solid debuts.  

There are still a list of prospects in the pipeline. we even traded several of them this year.  

See how this year there are more pitchers?  thats cause we are 1 year further in development with less injuries with the pitchers in the minors this year.  It hurts that Balazovich took a step back.  hopefully he can get back on track.  This is why i am fine giving the front office more time.  plus this was the funnest transaction season in my 35 years of following the Twins.  

[KirbyDome89]

33 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The names coming into this season were Ober as the closest to being established, Ryan with a solid debut, Winder, Balazovich were hopefully ready to take the next step.  and Duran, Woods-Richardson, Petty, Sands, Dobnak, Strottman, Canterino, were still developing.  That is a lot farther behind then where we are now.  

Last year:

Ober was close to being established

Ryan had a good debut to go into 2022

all other prospects are still developing.  some are close, some are far away

This year:

Ryan, Jax, and Duran have broker out, Ober has had success in 2 successive season and is an effective big leaguer at this point.

Winder, Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Henriguez had solid debuts.  

There are still a list of prospects in the pipeline. we even traded several of them this year.  

See how this year there are more pitchers?  thats cause we are 1 year further in development with less injuries with the pitchers in the minors this year.  It hurts that Balazovich took a step back.  hopefully he can get back on track.  This is why i am fine giving the front office more time.  plus this was the funnest transaction season in my 35 years of following the Twins.  

You're distorting timelines. Sands, Strotman, or Balazovic were in the same position to begin this season as guys like Varland or Henriquez will be in next year. 

Missing 4 months and throwing only 56 innings is a successful season for Ober? Winder's 4.70 ERA and multiple IL stints with the same shoulder issue was solid? SWR making a single start, or Henriquez's 11 innings were strong debuts? We're so detached from reality here.   

[Brandon]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You're distorting timelines. Sands, Strotman, or Balazovic were in the same position to begin this season as guys like Varland or Henriquez will be in next year. 

Missing 4 months and throwing only 56 innings is a successful season for Ober? Winder's 4.70 ERA and multiple IL stints with the same shoulder issue was solid? SWR making a single start, or Henriquez's 11 innings were strong debuts? We're so detached from reality here.   

No Sands, Balazovich and Strottman have not had a debut with the Twins at any time.  Varland has 5 starts and Henriquez has several games pitched.  THey were successful in their debuts.

Ober, yes the injuries are a concern.  my point was he was successful when he pitched.  thus making it more likely he will continue to be a successful major league pitcher if he can succeed.  

The bottom line is as a whole we have more pitchers ready to go than the year before. Its ok if you disagree.  also i dont expect all of the pitchers i listed to take the next step either.  Hence the point of seeing how the next 2 seasons go.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 10/18/2022 at 8:15 AM, Trov said:

I disagree with the argument that we should have cut Bundy and Archer and run out Varland and SWR or others sooner.  We already went through several SP going on IL.  Paddock, Ober, Winder, all had long stints on IL, Gray had a few, Ryan had one.  Archer ended on it.  Had we dumped Bundy and Archer early on, and SWR, who was on IL in minors for a month, or Varland landed on IL, then we maybe would have had to add even younger guys to 40 man.  Then when we need to cut down after the 60 day IL guys we could look to lose some of the younger guys to waivers.  That is something to keep in mind as well.  

The twins didn't need to cut Bundy or Archer to bring up Varland (not sure SWR deserved to be brought up earlier than he was), Varland could have been brought up earlier and slowly developed, they could have had him and Archer piggy back 3 innings each, maybe let Varland go a little longer each start. It was pretty obvious from day one if Archer wasn't ever going to give them 5 innings consistently. Remember was Varland was on his way to be minor league pitcher of the year 2 years in a row and was already 24.

Bundy went 5.1 in two of his last 17 starts, basically was a long relief pitcher, that didn't or shouldn't have stopped them from bringing anybody up either.