Brandon’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Brandon]

SS and RP are the big concerns of the offseason.  SS will depend on how Lewis is progressing on his return from injury and how close they feel Brooks Lee is to the show.  Jose Iglesias is probably the top candidate but if they feel one of these two guys could be up before the all-star break then why not take a shot on an even lower cost placeholder.  Hence Villar. There are other low-cost options available too like Aledmys Diaz or Didi Gregorius so take your low-cost pic.  McCutchen is probably stretched as a CF.  But as a backup there and at other places with days off and DH days.  I think he could be a real find for 400 PA and fill a role better than Garlick.  and McCutchen won't cost much either.  I don't see anyone willing to acquire Kepler, so I have us keeping him.  He could be let go if he doesn't at least get back to league average bat if Larnarch or Killeroff prove healthy and capable in LF.  The Twins have lots of starting pitching options for next season.  I doubt the Twins spend there unless they sign a depth starter or 2 for AAA.  (Woods-Richardson, Varland, Winder, Ober, and Henriguez is the new Smeltzer and possibly Blazovich if he improves plus the 3 locked in starters) back up C will actually be our starting C.  we need to replace the offense that Correa leaves, so we sign Contreras to a 4 year 80 million contract.  (This feels like a lot for the front office to want to do so I can also see us bringing back Sanchez on a 2 year 10-12 million deal as well).  The bullpen is where the Twins will spend some money.  with so many blown saves last season.  I can see the Twins resigning Fullmer to a 3 year 7 million per season contract and bounce back candidate Trevor May to a 1 year 3.5 million deal.  (I was thinking Taylor Rogers reunion, but he may still cost too much).  We still have a little money left over.  This is a great opportunity to frontload an extension to help keep payroll lower in future season.  Let's get Arreaz extended.  he has 3 more seasons left till he reaches free agency as something like a 5-year contract in the mold of 50 -55 million over 5 seasons and an option year.  to spread the money around he probably gets a little less and the money is more even.  so, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13 with an option year in the 18-20 million with a 2 million buyout.  that is a 53 million guarantee.  This also locks him up through age 31.  and buys out 2 or 3 free agent seasons.  I am not sure if the Twins have 5 or 6 seasons of control left for Miranda since he didn't play the entire season this year in the majors.  I am going to assume 6 seasons of control for this extension.  I will go with a 6 year 41 million contract at 4,4,6,7,10,10 and 2 options seasons at 15 million and the second at 18 million with a 2 million buyout.  We have control of him through his age 32 season.  

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M)
• 1B: Luis Arraez ($7.00M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M)
• 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M)
• SS: Jonathan Villar ($2.00M)
• LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M)
• DH: Jose Miranda ($4.00M)
• 4th OF: Andrew McCutchen ($5.00M)
• Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M)
• Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M)
• Backup C: Contreras ($20.00M)
• SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M)
• SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M)
• SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M)
• RP: Fullmer ($7.00M)
• RP: May ($3.5M)
• RP: Moran ($.75M)

Payroll is 7.25% under budget

[Brandon]

If there is room in the budget for another low-cost extension.  I would certainly consider a 3-year extension for Jax.  it would be small like a 3 year 6 million deal.  1,5, 2, 2.5 but it would buy out 2 arbitration seasons and secure Jax with some solid cash in the bank.  

[goulik]

I also considered the Trevor May reunion...

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, goulik said:

I also considered the Trevor May reunion...

It makes sense.  He had a down year and will cost less.  

 

[beckmt]

Don't think May is still a major league pitcher.

[Irishman]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

SS and RP are the big concerns of the offseason.  SS will depend on how Lewis is progressing on his return from injury and how close they feel Brooks Lee is to the show.  Jose Iglesias is probably the top candidate but if they feel one of these two guys could be up before the all-star break then why not take a shot on an even lower cost placeholder.  Hence Villar. There are other low-cost options available too like Aledmys Diaz or Didi Gregorius so take your low-cost pic.  McCutchen is probably stretched as a CF.  But as a backup there and at other places with days off and DH days.  I think he could be a real find for 400 PA and fill a role better than Garlick.  and McCutchen won't cost much either.  I don't see anyone willing to acquire Kepler, so I have us keeping him.  He could be let go if he doesn't at least get back to league average bat if Larnarch or Killeroff prove healthy and capable in LF.  The Twins have lots of starting pitching options for next season.  I doubt the Twins spend there unless they sign a depth starter or 2 for AAA.  (Woods-Richardson, Varland, Winder, Ober, and Henriguez is the new Smeltzer and possibly Blazovich if he improves plus the 3 locked in starters) back up C will actually be our starting C.  we need to replace the offense that Correa leaves, so we sign Contreras to a 4 year 80 million contract.  (This feels like a lot for the front office to want to do so I can also see us bringing back Sanchez on a 2 year 10-12 million deal as well).  The bullpen is where the Twins will spend some money.  with so many blown saves last season.  I can see the Twins resigning Fullmer to a 3 year 7 million per season contract and bounce back candidate Trevor May to a 1 year 3.5 million deal.  (I was thinking Taylor Rogers reunion, but he may still cost too much).  We still have a little money left over.  This is a great opportunity to frontload an extension to help keep payroll lower in future season.  Let's get Arreaz extended.  he has 3 more seasons left till he reaches free agency as something like a 5-year contract in the mold of 50 -55 million over 5 seasons and an option year.  to spread the money around he probably gets a little less and the money is more even.  so, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13 with an option year in the 18-20 million with a 2 million buyout.  that is a 53 million guarantee.  This also locks him up through age 31.  and buys out 2 or 3 free agent seasons.  I am not sure if the Twins have 5 or 6 seasons of control left for Miranda since he didn't play the entire season this year in the majors.  I am going to assume 6 seasons of control for this extension.  I will go with a 6 year 41 million contract at 4,4,6,7,10,10 and 2 options seasons at 15 million and the second at 18 million with a 2 million buyout.  We have control of him through his age 32 season.  

• ? Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M)
• 1B: Luis Arraez ($7.00M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M)
• 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M)
• SS: Jonathan Villar ($2.00M)
• LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M)
• DH: Jose Miranda ($4.00M)
• 4th OF: Andrew McCutchen ($5.00M)
• Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M)
• Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M)
• Backup ? Contreras ($20.00M)
• SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M)
• SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M)
• SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M)
• RP: Fullmer ($7.00M)
• RP: May ($3.5M)
• RP: Moran ($.75M)

Payroll is 7.25% under budget

Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis not making the team?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, Irishman said:

Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis not making the team?

Royce had his second ACL surgery in 2 years in June, 2022. He will likely start the season on the 60.

not sure what the plan for Larnach is

[Brandon]

14 hours ago, Irishman said:

Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis not making the team?

Larnarch is in the minors to start the season and Lewis is injured to start the season.  I built the roster for opening day view.  McCutchen can play all 3 OF positions so if we need defense when Buxton is out we have Celestino but if we need offense we can put McCutchen in CF.  Also I wouldn’t want 2 injury risks in OF.  Either Alex Killeroff or Larnarch not both at the same time to start the season.