2023 Shaping Up to Be a Make or Break Year for the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s front office has focused on payroll flexibility, which means the team’s books are relatively clear for years into the future. Even with this flexibility, the 2023 season is shaping to be a make-it-or-break-it for the Twins. 

 

Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have stressed the importance of keeping the Twins’ winning window open as long as possible. To do this, the club has restrained from giving out long-term contracts, which gives the team payroll flexibility for multiple years. Minnesota has traded for multiple players to supplement the roster, and many contracts are up at the end of 2023. That makes next year a make-it-or-break-it season. 

Possible Free Agent Pitchers Following 2023 
Sonny Gray: It will be a no-brainer for the Twins to pick up Gray’s $12 million team option for 2023, but that means he is heading to free agency after next season. Minnesota surrendered their 2021 first-round pick to acquire Gray for multiple seasons. He performed well in his first season with the Twins as he posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in 24 starts. Injuries impacted multiple Twins starters, and Gray pitched under 120 innings for the first time since 2016 due to multiple IL stints.

Kenta Maeda: Maeda signed a unique contract when he came from Japan. The Dodgers saw some abnormalities in his physical, so he signed a very incentive-laden contract. He pitched over 760 big-league innings before needing Tommy John surgery. Some thought he could pitch out of the bullpen in 2022, but Minnesota fell out of the race, and there wasn’t a reason to rush him back. Now, Maeda will spend the winter preparing to rejoin the Twins’ rotation in the final year of his contract. 

Tyler Mahle: Fans were excited when the Twins made an aggressive trade deadline acquisition of Mahle. His Twins tenure started poorly as he dealt with shoulder issues that ended his season early. Minnesota hopes rest and recovery this offseason will help Mahle to return to his previous performance level. If Mahle can’t return to health, it will be a tough pill to swallow for the current front office. This regime has a history of acquiring potentially injured pitchers, and Mahle is another name on that list.  

Possible Free Agent Position Players Following 2023 
Max Kepler: Kepler’s future with the Twins is up in the air, with one guaranteed year remaining on his contract. Outside of 2019, his offensive numbers have been below average, but he continues to be one of baseball’s best defenders in right field. He has a team option for $10 million for the 2024 season, and FanGraphs pegs his average value at over $16.1 million for 2022. The Twins also have three young outfielders that need time in corner outfield positions, so this might make Kepler more expendable over the next two seasons. 

Gio Urshela: Urshela was one of Minnesota’s best performers throughout the 2022 season. He posted a 121 OPS+ and ranked fourth on the team in WAR. Many will compare him to Josh Donaldson, and Urshela ranked better than Donaldson in many offensive categories. Urshela’s big-league development hasn’t followed a linear path, but he has carved out a niche as an above-average regular over the last four seasons. He will be 31 years old for all of next season, and the Twins will have younger options to plug in at third base in the years ahead. 

Minnesota has some decisions to make, with many vital players heading toward free agency. Will the club try to sign any of the above names to extensions? Will some be made qualifying offers? If Minnesota stumbles, can they be traded before next year’s deadline? All signs point to the 2023 season being a critical year for the office as they need the club to take a step in the right direction.

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[rv78]

"Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have stressed the importance of keeping the Twins’ winning window open as long as possible. "

How are back to back losing seasons part of a winning window? 

Didn't they give out too long of contracts already to guys like Kepler and Sano? Buxton will join that list. The best player (Correa) is a 1 and done. Yeah, nothing like committing to a winning window. When their version of a winning window is signing or trading for washed up or injured pitchers, you forgot 1 (Paddock) and players (Buxton) for the cheap and letting good players walk away they need to add a screen to that window to filter out the blood-sucking players that they think are butterflies.

[mikelink45]

It is all about prospects - If the Twins think their farm covers their needs we will have no big signings.  This is not a team that goes that big.  We sign Donaldson and soon see that was bad so we trade him.  We sign Correa but know he will opt out after one big year.  I do not expect anything earthshaking. 

[Doctor Gast]

We've had the core to get it done the last 2 yrs but the problem has been management. Their big excuse is injuries but I say many of those injuries are due to poor management. Nothing will change until management changes their plan.

I don't think next year will be a make or break year, for that to happen ownership need to care enough to see what's really going on.

[Whitey333]

What opening win ing window are you talking about?  This team has been terrible the past two seasons.  There is no window.  Maybe a window of mediocrity.  The FO likes to pat themselves on the back for all the moves they made the past two years.  Do they watch their own product?  Or like the fans they can't stomach it either?  This FO could go down as one of the worst in Twins history.

[gunnarthor]

"Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have stressed the importance of keeping the Twins’ winning window open as long as possible."

It's good that people are starting to understand that this is what they were hired to do. It would be nice if people understood how utterly they failed at this. They had an incredible nucleus of young, ready to win talent. And, outside of Nelson Cruz, didn't do much to help that group get over the top or keep the window open past 2020 (arguably 2019). We don't need another year to know these guys aren't capable. It's time to move on.

[Major League Ready]

Every year seems to get labeled as make or break.  We should pay more attention to how winning teams are built in other small/mid-markets.  How many high dollar free agents does Cleveland have on their roster?  How many trades has Cleveland made for big name free agents.  How many highly productive players were obtained by trading away well-established veterans? 

They had 7 position players with an fWar above 1.5.  Four of them were acquired by trading away established players, 2 were international (not high dollar) and 1 was drafted.    Clause and Quantrill were also acquired by trading away Kluber.   Their other two top SPs (Bieber / McKenzie) were drafted.

This obsession with big name free agents and trading for big names absolutely ignores how good teams are built in modest revenue markets with modest revenue.  The Twins have slightly more revenue and therefore can augment a roster but good teams simply are not built in similar markets in the manner so many here insist they must be built.

Disagree, great show examples of teams sustaining success in similar markets though trading for long-term assets and signing $200M free agents.

[RJA]

Urshela played hard, stayed healthy, delivered in the clutch, and played a pretty good third base.  Keep him.  Kepler will always be remembered as a player who was too stubborn or simply unable to adjust his approach to be successful.  It is a shame as he has talent.  But, I would trade him if there is any market.  Gray actually wants to pitch more than five innings so for heaven's sake, keep him around and tell Rocco to let him.  I am worried that Mahle will be on and off the injured list next year and by August they will determine his shoulder needs surgery.  But, he has talent so let's hope he recovers.  Maeda is a total unknown as most pitchers coming off surgery are.  Many do well but it often takes them a year to get "back" unless they are named Verlander who is a medical wonder.  So, yes it is a big year.  If next year is another lost year, I think we can say goodbye to the smartest guys in the room.  If the young pitching develops, and/or they add to the rotation and bullpen, and Buck, Kirilloff, Larnach, Arraez and the rest stay healthy all year and play well, it might be a good year.  Let's hope for the latter.

[Rosterman]

I worry about Arraez staying healthy. He needs to bat leadoff. Wish he was a "taller" guy at first, but...we need to play him somewhere.

All the players mentioned above are trade chips if they stay healthy. I wished that Kepler was on the tading bloc this summer, but he went and got himself injured. Sigh.

 

I now know why I am not a baseball general manager. You can't win in the job!

[Blyleven2011]

I just cant see this team shaping up  under the present coaches  , manager and FO  ....

the coaches and manager do not have there focus on the game  and if the coaches and manager don't have  focus them how do you expect the players to have focus ...

There is so many problems with their  plan that it will  not sustain  a winning team ... 

I'm still predicting sonny gray will ask for a trade  ....

that's my plan and I'm sticking to it  .. 

[old nurse]

For a Twins GM it is make or broke. Bill Smith would still be the GM if his plan wasn’t spend money to fix. Iy is more likely than not the dynamite duo in place will be fine as long as there is profit. 

As far as Kepler leaving,, when there are 6 better options the could try to trade him, or he hits free agency, and goes. Celestino is not an answer. Beckham and the other guy they brought in, and Contreras showed why they need so many outfielders at their disposal. When a team claims Cave, it shows there is a dearth of backups. 

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Every year seems to get labeled as make or break.  We should pay more attention to how winning teams are built in other small/mid-markets.  How many high dollar free agents does Cleveland have on their roster?  How many trades has Cleveland made for big name free agents.  How many highly productive players were obtained by trading away well-established veterans? 

They had 7 position players with an fWar above 1.5.  Four of them were acquired by trading away established players, 2 were international (not high dollar) and 1 was drafted.    Clause and Quantrill were also acquired by trading away Kluber.   Their other two top SPs (Bieber / McKenzie) were drafted.

This obsession with big name free agents and trading for big names absolutely ignores how good teams are built in modest revenue markets with modest revenue.  The Twins have slightly more revenue and therefore can augment a roster but good teams simply are not built in similar markets in the manner so many here insist they must be built.

Disagree, great show examples of teams sustaining success in similar markets though trading for long-term assets and signing $200M free agents.

You need to have a good scouting department.  In regards to the Twins, to dsome that is a debate able issue for a different thread.

You need to move on from mistakes. Actually this FO managed to move Lynn and Happ. Cut its with Shomaker, outright Smeltzer (not quite a mistake) and Dobnak (Contract mistake). The window is kept open by the continuous finding of players. 

[Cris E]

I don't think they expected to contend in 2022. They were going to roll into the year with a very young rotation, Buxton, Kepler and some kids in LF,  a 25 year old catcher, a lot of youth in the pen, that young SS from TEX or Lewis at SS, etc. Dumping Donaldson got them Sanchez and Urshela, but they only picked up Grey, Pagan, Paddock, after Correa landed in their laps. I think on January 1 they still thought this was a year to get the kids broken in and 2023 was the target season. 

EDIT: Just for the record I do NOT expect them to be in on Judge, but he would be a fun add in Kepler's role.

 

[Karbo]

I hope things go better next year, but I'm concerned this teams field staff won't be able to get there. After a total collapse this year they make no coaching changes? Why should we really expect more? I've heard the saying "doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome is the meaning of insanity", It sure seems that the Twins are going to test that theory.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, old nurse said:

You need to have a good scouting department.  In regards to the Twins, to dsome that is a debate able issue for a different thread.

You need to move on from mistakes. Actually this FO managed to move Lynn and Happ. Cut its with Shomaker, outright Smeltzer (not quite a mistake) and Dobnak (Contract mistake). The window is kept open by the continuous finding of players. 

How could we possibly debate a good scouting department is essential to success in MLB.  This would be true regardless of specific strategy as it influences every potential strategy for building a team?  However, the debate tends to be we don't have Tampa's scouting / development so we should follow different practices.  Unfortunately, the net of that logic is that we follow strategies that simply don't or at least have not produced great results for mid or small market teams.  In other words, pursing inferior strategies is a really flawed.  The answer is not to pursue strategies likely to fail even with good execution. The answer is to get better at executing the most viable strategies.

This premise is at the heart of the question posed here about 2023 and more importantly sustaining success beyond 2023.  In that regard 2023 does have or make or break component in that so many future pieces will be tested.  Will Kirilloff and Lewis come back healthy.  Will Larnach / Wallner / Celestino adapt and thrive at the MLB level.  Is Martin "breaking out" and will he be a factor fairly soon.   What do they do with the available budget?  Will it be used in a long-term or short-term manner.  Will they reshape the infield by moving one of Urshela / Polanco or Arraez.  Will they gibe Duran a shot at starting?  That's a lot of questions which supports the long-term importance of what happens in 2023.

On the pitching side, Ober looked quite different when he came back.  He just might have more ceiling than most believed.  Then, we have Varland and SWR looking like they are ready so 2023 will tell us a lot about their future.  So, he this context 2023 is going to be a huge test of their plan and execution across the entire organization.  I guess that could be considered make or break in 2023.

[Linus]

I believe last year at this time many of us were saying 2022 was the make or break year depending on the success of the vaunted pitching pipeline. 

[h2oface]

According to recent past reasoning by this FO, they will be trading Maeda and Gray during the off season. Pressly had to go with a year and a half left on contract. So did Berrios. How is Gray and Maeda different? I'm am sure many will come up with some reasons.... competitive teams, coming off injury, etc....... but it seems they are very inconsistent. They use the "have to trade to get hopeful prospect value" excuse only when they want to and it fits their pitch.

[Nine of twelve]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

According to recent past reasoning by this FO, they will be trading Maeda and Gray during the off season. Pressly had to go with a year and a half left on contract. So did Berrios. How is Gray and Maeda different?

 

Pressly and Berrios were both trading deadline transactions in seasons where the Twins were not going to make the postseason. I doubt either would have been traded if the Twins had been in the race. Would they have been traded at the end of that season? Maybe, although Berrios' contract would have expired.

I've said many times that any and every player should be traded if the organization is improved as a result. We got Celestino and Alcala for Pressly, and Martin and Woods-Richardson for Berrios. It's easily possible that we will have won both trades after we look back at it a few years from now.

So trading Maeda and/or Gray would not worry me.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Pressly and Berrios were both trading deadline transactions in seasons where the Twins were not going to make the postseason. I doubt either would have been traded if the Twins had been in the race. Would they have been traded at the end of that season? Maybe, although Berrios' contract would have expired.

I've said many times that any and every player should be traded if the organization is improved as a result. We got Celestino and Alcala for Pressly, and Martin and Woods-Richardson for Berrios. It's easily possible that we will have won both trades after we look back at it a few years from now.

So trading Maeda and/or Gray would not worry me.

Except that would mean they are out of it again. I hope they are rolling, but I think if they are in it next year they might have to stand pat at the deadline because the farm has already been raided.

 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Pressly and Berrios were both trading deadline transactions in seasons where the Twins were not going to make the postseason. I doubt either would have been traded if the Twins had been in the race. Would they have been traded at the end of that season? Maybe, although Berrios' contract would have expired.

I've said many times that any and every player should be traded if the organization is improved as a result. We got Celestino and Alcala for Pressly, and Martin and Woods-Richardson for Berrios. It's easily possible that we will have won both trades after we look back at it a few years from now.

So trading Maeda and/or Gray would not worry me.

So you are liking Alcala and Celestino for Presley?

[Nine of twelve]

10 hours ago, wabene said:

Except that would mean they are out of it again. I hope they are rolling, but I think if they are in it next year they might have to stand pat at the deadline because the farm has already been raided.

 

Good point. I had an off-season trade in mind when I wrote my post.

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, Linus said:

So you are liking Alcala and Celestino for Presley?

Too soon to know. Celestino has been improving and is still pretty young. Alcala has the stuff to be a shut-down reliever if he recovers for next season. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Too soon to know. Celestino has been improving and is still pretty young. Alcala has the stuff to be a shut-down reliever if he recovers for next season. 

That's pretty generous. Celestino is worthless. You can find 100 Celestinos in the minors. Most of them might even be able to run the bases. And hoping that someday, Alcala can become what Pressley already is, is the definition if a failed trade.

[h2oface]

19 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Pressly and Berrios were both trading deadline transactions in seasons where the Twins were not going to make the postseason. I doubt either would have been traded if the Twins had been in the race. Would they have been traded at the end of that season? Maybe, although Berrios' contract would have expired.

I've said many times that any and every player should be traded if the organization is improved as a result. We got Celestino and Alcala for Pressly, and Martin and Woods-Richardson for Berrios. It's easily possible that we will have won both trades after we look back at it a few years from now.

So trading Maeda and/or Gray would not worry me.

Reasons you left out of the quote that were already identified, but sure. That would be FO retort too I suspect. Years pass and the reward is still hopeful.

I am pretty sure Berrios had another year left, by the way, as did Pressly. Both traded with just under a year and a half left at trade deadline.

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Celestino is worthless.

So was Aaron Hicks at age 23. So was Whit Merrifield. So were a lot of other good MLB players. No matter what your opinion of his current status is, it's too soon to know what he will be in 5 years.

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

And hoping that someday, Alcala can become what Pressley already is, is the definition if a failed trade.

That's the case if you want to do things incorrectly and evaluate a trade based only on what is true right now. The correct way to evaluate a trade is to look at career performance. Maybe Alcala will not do anything more, or maybe he'll be highly valuable. My crystal ball is in the shop, so we'll just have to wait and see.