Twins Daily 2022 Awards: Best Pitcher

[Nash Walker]

Imagine a pitcher who can touch 104 mph, throws strikes and combines it with elite offspeed stuff. The Twins have never had such an arm… until now. Twins Daily’s 2022 pick for Pitcher of the Year is rookie sensation Jhoan Duran.

While the majority of the Twins’ bullpen struggled to close games, Duran was invaluable all season long. He led American League relievers in Win Probability Added (4.59), frequently facing the opponent’s best hitters in the highest leverage spots. Duran’s “clutch” score registered at 1.26, also the highest in the AL. 

If you looked only at Duran on the surface, you’d crown him as one of the best relievers in baseball. His incredible season was impressive without context. The context, however, is where the magic lies. Duran was a rookie thrust into the tightest spots for a team fighting for the playoffs. He had never pitched in relief before 2022, save for a couple games at Triple-A in 2019 and 2021. 

After working at the Twins' alternate site in 2020, Duran threw only 16 innings a season ago in St. Paul. He had a 5.06 ERA before an elbow injury shut down his season, putting his future in question. Duran dazzled in spring training and earned a spot on the Opening Day roster. Even the most optimistic believers in Duran’s incredible stuff couldn’t have predicted what came next. 

Among pitchers who threw at least 250 offerings in 2022, Duran’s four-seamer ranked first in average velocity (100.8). His splitter also paced the league at a ridiculous 96.4 mph. Duran unquestionably has the best raw stuff in Twins history and one of the most electrifying repertoires the game has ever seen. 

There have been plenty of young pitchers with electric arms but Duran’s command is the separator. His 27.4% strikeout-to-walk rate was tied for 10th among qualified relievers, ahead of Cleveland phenom Emmanuel Clase. Duran throws extremely hard and he throws strikes. That combo led to nearly three Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference. 

Duran worked through early pitch-selection pains and got better as the season went on. Only two AL relievers had a lower ERA than Duran in the second half (1.05), minimum of 25 innings. The rookie was also lights-out in front of the home crowd, posting a 0.83 ERA at Target Field, the lowest in a season in the park’s history. 

Handing your most pivotal bullpen spot to a rookie can be a risky proposition, given the pressure of that role. Duran was unfazed. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Duran held opponents to a 1-for-25 mark, with the lone hit a single. In high-leverage situations, opponents hit .180 with a .489 OPS. Duran’s pulse is impossible to see. 

Twins fans were understandably sad to see the team trade Eduardo Escobar at the 2018 deadline. The reward, however, looks to be potentially game-changing. Duran has instantly become one of the game’s best relievers and he’s under contract with the Twins through at least 2027. He’s a joy to watch. 

HONORABLE MENTIONS
Sonny Gray
The Twins traded their first-round pick from a year ago for Sonny Gray, who was very good when healthy in his first season as a Twin. Gray had trouble staying healthy and pitching deep into games, but his 3.08 ERA and 3.41 FIP show he’s still a frontline starter. 

Griffin Jax
Also in his first season as a full-time reliever, Griffin Jax enjoyed a massive spike in velocity and effectiveness. Jax posted a solid 3.36 ERA in 65 games, regularly setting up Duran as the second-best reliever in the bullpen. Jax averaged over 95 mph with his four-seamer and produced a 37% whiff rate on his elite, high-spin slider. 

Caleb Thielbar
Caleb Thielbar is another example of why we should trust the expected statistics. A ballooned ERA was backed by much better metrics early in 2022. Thielbar was outstanding in the second half with a 1.50 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 24 innings. The lefty filled in more than admirably for Taylor Rogers. 

Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan set the Twins’ single-season rookie record for strikeouts, backed by a 3.55 ERA in a team-leading 147 innings. Ryan was exceptional down the stretch with a 2.81 ERA over his last nine starts. Still just a rookie, Ryan has been impressive for many of his now 32 starts in the big leagues.

 

 

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[mikelink45]

Hard for me to choose - I still think Ryan from opening day to the most dependable starter all year would get my vote, but I love Duran. 

[Murph]

Ryan and Duran gave me hope for the Twins' pitching staff, going forward.

[Blyleven2011]

Of all the mentioned players above , they all did a tremendous job pitching  and for the most part staying off the injured list  ...

Hope they all have a great 2023 cause we need pitching  ...

I'm still predicting sonny gray will request a trade  ...

That's my story and I'm sticking to it ...

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Hard for me to choose - I still think Ryan from opening day to the most dependable starter all year would get my vote, but I love Duran. 

I don't care to rank them, I'm just happy to see they both exceeded expectations.

I know this won't go over well in all corners, but with the converted starters Duran and Jax being the best part of the 2022 bullpen, I'm looking forward to seeing them try that trick again in 2023 with some combination of Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Henriquez and Sands. Not that the team should wash their hands of any of them as starters (except Sands, he's bullpen material), but there likely won't be room for most or any of them to start the year in the rotation.

[TwinsDr2021]

The Twins best pitcher Duran pitched only 4 more innings than Pagan, something is wrong with that stat.

But like the rookie pitcher I am going with Ryan not sure Duran greatness makes up for the 79 less innings. IMO

[jmlease1]

Duran was so dominant and was truly elite, so he's a worthy winner here. but I do want to give some love to Joe Ryan, a pitcher I really enjoy watching on the mound, but whom I also think is a quality pitcher.

I'm a fan of Game Score as a quick way of evaluating how good a pitcher's start was and as a metric for evaluating their season as a whole (only one piece, but an interesting one IMHO). 50 is average, which is fairly easy to wrap your brain around, so 45-59 are starts that are decent, 60-74 are very good, 75+ is great. (flip side, 35-44 is poor, and below 35 is disaster zone). YMMV on how I break it out; FanGraphs does it differently, but they also use 2.0

Ryan had 4 starts of 75+, 9 that were 60-74, 6 from 45-59, 7 that were in the poor range of 35-44, and 2 that were disasters. For a rookie, that's not a bad ratio of quality to crap. He's still got some things to work on and improve, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's a rotation stalwart for this team and he had a terrific rookie season.

 

[ashbury]

Duran had an elite year.  The others under consideration didn't; their years were such that they weren't on the "needs fixing" list.