Twins Daily 2022 Awards: Rookie of the Year

[Nick Nelson]

In a crummy season like this one, it's nice to have legitimate silver linings to fall back on. The 2022 Twins provided those, by receiving so many impact performances from major-league rookies with bright (cost-controlled) futures ahead of them that it was very difficult for our panel to settle on this award.

Ultimately, the winner is flame-throwing phenom Jhoan Durán.

Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo, Twins Daily

Twins Daily panelists had three excellent choices in front of them when trying to select the best rookie on this year's Twins team. 

Joe Ryan delivered one of the best rookie campaigns by a starting pitcher in team history, posting a 13-8 record and 3.55 ERA in 27 starts. He led the team in innings. 

José Miranda shook off a slow start after debuting in May with a torrid summer on the way to a 116 OPS+, 15 home runs, and a team-leading 66 RBIs.

Both Ryan and Miranda were essential to keeping their respective units afloat. Ryan, outside of a bout with COVID, stayed healthy all year in an injury-plagued rotation, and was consistently effective for the most part. Miranda was at times the only credible threat in a slump-prone lineup, the antidote for an offense allergic to hitting with RISP.

But I don't think anyone can argue against the fact that Jhoan Durán's importance to this year's bullpen is unparalleled. He was not only their most reliable reliever, but oftentimes their only reliable reliever. He did marvelous, magical things on the mound that Minnesota Twins fans (and major-league baseball fans) have never seen before. 

Durán was barely the choice for Twins Daily Rookie of the Year, beating out Miranda by an extremely slim margin, but he was absolutely the right choice. These five numbers explain why.

Jhoan Duran's Spectacular Rookie Season, by the Numbers

103.8 MPH

The radar reading on Durán's hardest fastball of the season, thrown on September 27th, setting a new Twins franchise record for fastest recorded pitch. Naturally, he broke his own record, set at 103.3 MPH back in May, which itself broke his own record set earlier that month. Durán's laser beam against Elvis Andrus of the White Sox was rounded up on the TV broadcast, flashing an absurd 104 MPH.

100.8 MPH

The velocity of a "splinker" thrown by Durán on August 29th against Boston, becoming the first offspeed pitch in major-league history to clock at 100-plus MPH. It was one of the nastiest and most untouchable pitches ever witnessed, sending a hopeless Alex Verdugo to the bench on strike three.

The presence of Durán's splitter-sinker combo alongside his red-hot heater is crucial to his success, giving batters the almost impossible task of deciphering which one's coming within a sliver of a second. While the right-hander's fastball velo is rare – only a select few pitchers like Ryan Helsley and Jordan Hicks operate in that realm – his "offspeed" juice is what truly sets him apart. No one else is coming close to this velocity on a splitter. He's a unicorn.

Of course, all of this eye-popping velocity wouldn't mean much if he couldn't command it and throw it in the zone. But he did.

69.31%

Percentage of pitches thrown for strikes by Durán, the 11th-best mark for any MLB reliever. He allowed only 16 walks in 67 ⅔ innings (2.1 BB/9), and issued multiple free passes in an appearance once all year.

The dread felt by opposing hitters stepping in against the imposing 6-foot-5 specimen was only made worse by the fact that trying to coax a walk was unlikely to be fruitful. 

 

As Aaron Gleeman marveled at The Athletic not long ago: "He relentlessly pounds the strike zone with arguably the best raw stuff in the world, changing speeds and eye levels in a way that almost seems unfair. Duran is destined to be one of the greatest relievers in Twins history if they can keep him healthy. He’s unreal."

1.86

Durán's final ERA in 2022, the 7th-best mark for any reliever in Twins history. His combination of elite stuff and precision command have led to complete and total dominance for Durán, who held opponents to a .207 average and struck out more than a third of the batters he faced (33.5%). His 1.86 ERA trails only these six seasons from Twins relievers, half of which belong to the great Joe Nathan:

1. Dennys Reyes, 2006 (0.89)
2. Joe Nathan, 2008 (1.33)
3. Al Worthington, 1964 (1.37)
4. Joe Nathan, 2006 (1.58)
5. Joe Nathan, 2004 (1.62)
6. Caleb Thielbar, 2013 (1.76)

Durán was at his best during the second half, posting a 1.05 ERA with only one home run allowed in 24 appearances.

4.59

Durán's final Win Probability Added, which led all American League pitchers and ranked second among MLB relievers. Only Daniel Bard of the Rockies made a bigger impact on his team's outcomes. To me, this measurement gets to the core of what made Durán so remarkable and indispensable. 

Not only was he putting absolutely ridiculous numbers against big-league hitters ... he was doing it against the BEST big-league hitters in the BIGGEST spots. Once Rocco Baldelli became aware of what he had in Durán, the reliever was permanently pushed into a "fireman" role. Nearly every appearance was under duress, with the game hanging in the balance, and the heart of the opposing order due up.

To pitch so well, in such consistently difficult circumstances, as a rookie with 16 previous innings of experiences above Double-A ... it's incomprehensible. Among all MLB rookie relievers since 1990, only Jonathan Papelbon has posted a higher WPA than Durán did in 2022. That was in 2006, the first of four straight All-Star seasons for Papelbon.

Amidst all of these amazing numbers, the most important one for Durán might be 57. That's the number of appearances he made for the Twins, staying healthy and strong all year long as a go-to linchpin in the bullpen after totaling five appearances last year, when a forearm strain derailed his season. 

For all the worst-case scenarios that played out with the Twins this year from a health standpoint, Durán completely shaking off last year's elbow issues was a direly needed exception to the rule. If he can continue to keep that golden arm rocking, he'll be a vital asset in whatever this team is trying to build. Durán's rookie season was one for the ages.

FINAL VOTING POINTS TALLY:

• Durán: 42
• Miranda: 40
• Ryan: 31 
• Moran: 6
• Winder: 3
• Celestino: 3
• Varland: 1

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[mikelink45]

Tough choice (which is nice) because Miranda really did hold the lineup together and at times Ryan was the SP rotation all by himself.  Add three rookies this good next year and we can stop worrying about FA signings.

[ToddlerHarmon]

The very definition of an elite talent. Well-deserved, and happily well-contested

[Monkeypaws]

Most years any one of these three would have been a shoo in for Twins ROY. Pretty cool to have all three at once.

 

Hopefully they will not be flashes in the pan and actually get better.

[Blyleven2011]

My choice would have been in the same order  ...

Duran had a remarkable season as a shut down bullpen option ...

Miranda was clutch and led team in RBI's  ,,,, 

Ryan led the rotation in wins  ...

Off the topic alittle bit here...

RBI's matter , runs matter , hitting in clutch situations matters  , where are our clutch hitters , when was the last time we had a player have a 100 rbis or a 100 runs scored for the season  ,,,

The spreadsheet  isn't exactly working the way they WANT it to work  , Need to mix in old school baseball with new school baseball  , these players are professionals  and should adapt to that plan ...

not until we have a 100 rbi player or a player score a 100 runs per season  will we contend  ,,,

We will only compete  ...

Bring back the fundamentals  of the game  , stealing bases , occasionally a bunt when need , hit and run , hit behind the runner and move them up a base , hit to opposite field  ( spread the ball around )  , take a walk and make the pitcher work ( works for the dreadful yankees ) , be selective and patient  and  hit your pitch and not a pitchers pitch  and cut down on the strikeouts  ...

we SHOULD see our players cut down on strikeouts every year as they get more experience with bat control  ...

teach this to the players and tell them that is what you want  from them ....

That my plan and I'm sticking to it  ....

[GNess]

Duran was most impactful rookie, but Ryan and Miranda showed true quality too. Why is Duran not being considered as a potential SP next season? He would have a chance to be even more impactful. Note the impact of strong SP on the first round of the playoffs.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Add three rookies this good next year and we can stop worrying about FA signings.

Agree with this sentiment. I have high hopes for Lewis and Woods-Richardson next season.

It will be hard to for any reliever to top what Duran did this season. It is one of the best relief seasons in Twins history. 

[mikelink45]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Agree with this sentiment. I have high hopes for Lewis and Woods-Richardson next season.

It will be hard to for any reliever to top what Duran did this season. It is one of the best relief seasons in Twins history. 

I agree, but I hope Alcala comes back strong and Moran develops to a solid reliever.  Then there are the relievers in Fall League that I know nothing about. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

My choice would have been in the same order  ...

Duran had a remarkable season as a shut down bullpen option ...

Miranda was clutch and led team in RBI's  ,,,, 

Ryan led the rotation in wins  ...

Off the topic alittle bit here...

RBI's matter , runs matter , hitting in clutch situations matters  , where are our clutch hitters , when was the last time we had a player have a 100 rbis or a 100 runs scored for the season  ,,,

The spreadsheet  isn't exactly working the way they WANT it to work  , Need to mix in old school baseball with new school baseball  , these players are professionals  and should adapt to that plan ...

not until we have a 100 rbi player or a player score a 100 runs per season  will we contend  ,,,

We will only compete  ...

Bring back the fundamentals  of the game  , stealing bases , occasionally a bunt when need , hit and run , hit behind the runner and move them up a base , hit to opposite field  ( spread the ball around )  , take a walk and make the pitcher work ( works for the dreadful yankees ) , be selective and patient  and  hit your pitch and not a pitchers pitch  and cut down on the strikeouts  ...

we SHOULD see our players cut down on strikeouts every year as they get more experience with bat control  ...

teach this to the players and tell them that is what you want  from them ....

That my plan and I'm sticking to it  ....

I like your plan. Submit a copies to Rocco and to Falvine, please. Then hope they will take the necessary steps to implement your plan. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I love what Duran did, but I can't give an award to a guy that pitched less than half the innings the other guy did.

Ryan gets the award from me.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, GNess said:

Why is Duran not being considered as a potential SP next season?

I would guess because he will be 25 next season, didn't pitch in 2020, threw 16 innings in 21 and 67 this year. If they moved him to a starter next year he would mostly likely be on an innings/pitches limit for the next two years. My two cents

[Doctor Gast]

Duran had my vote too. He was phenomenal all season. Duran turned a ? (wether he could make that transition) to !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (an elite reliever)

[Linus]

The guy was phenomenal. Most people think about his velocity but he has 3 good pitches and he commands them all. The other thing is he consistently drew the toughest situations and still put up these numbers. 

[h2oface]

10 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would guess because he will be 25 next season, didn't pitch in 2020, threw 16 innings in 21 and 67 this year. If they moved him to a starter next year he would mostly likely be on an innings/pitches limit for the next two years. My two cents

I think that does not have to be the case. Spencer Strider, of the Braves moved from the pen to start, all in this year, and pitched 131+ innings. This was his 23 year old season. Now just signed for 6 years. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34768078/atlanta-braves-lock-spencer-strider-6-year-75m-deal

Alex Anthopoulos seems to make all the right moves. Last year, and this year, while we watch our FO make all the wrong moves. (Well, not all, but way too many.) Strider was the bullpen cream, but is a great starter, too. Duran wants to start. No reason not to let him. If you baby a pitcher, he will not become who he can be. The stars don't fit molds. Duran is a star. He wants to start. He has deGrom stuff and control. They should let him, or when he can, he will find a team that will.

 

[[[[[ Strider progression ]]]]]]

"A fourth-round gem in the extremely truncated 2020 draft (five rounds), Strider skyrocketed through the Braves’ system despite a lack of minor league games in 2020, ultimately making his Major League debut late in the 2021 season. The Clemson product cracked the Braves’ Opening Day roster in 2022, initially working multi-inning stints out of the bullpen before ascending to the starting staff, where he not only found success but emerged as a bona fide front-of-the-rotation arm.

Overall, Strider broke out with 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball and a 38.3% strikeout rate that paced all big leaguers who pitched at least 100 innings. Command was an issue at times in the minors and early in the season, but Strider markedly scaled back on the number of free passes he yielded as the season wore on, finishing out the year with an 8.5% walk rate that was scarcely north of the league average. For someone who walked 13.5% of his opponents over the first two months of the season, the improvement was as remarkable as it was rapid; from June 10 onward, Strider walked just 6.8% of his opponents."

[TwinsDr2021]

9 hours ago, h2oface said:

I think that does not have to be the case. Spencer Strider, of the Braves moved from the pen to start, all in this year, and pitched 131+ innings. This was his 23 year old season. Now just signed for 6 years. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34768078/atlanta-braves-lock-spencer-strider-6-year-75m-deal

Alex Anthopoulos seems to make all the right moves. Last year, and this year, while we watch our FO make all the wrong moves. (Well, not all, but way too many.) Strider was the bullpen cream, but is a great starter, too. Duran wants to start. No reason not to let him. If you baby a pitcher, he will not become who he can be. The stars don't fit molds. Duran is a star. He wants to start. He has deGrom stuff and control. They should let him, or when he can, he will find a team that will.

 

[[[[[ Strider progression ]]]]]]

"A fourth-round gem in the extremely truncated 2020 draft (five rounds), Strider skyrocketed through the Braves’ system despite a lack of minor league games in 2020, ultimately making his Major League debut late in the 2021 season. The Clemson product cracked the Braves’ Opening Day roster in 2022, initially working multi-inning stints out of the bullpen before ascending to the starting staff, where he not only found success but emerged as a bona fide front-of-the-rotation arm.

Overall, Strider broke out with 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball and a 38.3% strikeout rate that paced all big leaguers who pitched at least 100 innings. Command was an issue at times in the minors and early in the season, but Strider markedly scaled back on the number of free passes he yielded as the season wore on, finishing out the year with an 8.5% walk rate that was scarcely north of the league average. For someone who walked 13.5% of his opponents over the first two months of the season, the improvement was as remarkable as it was rapid; from June 10 onward, Strider walked just 6.8% of his opponents."

I love what Atlanta has done with their prospects, while the Twins seemingly get very old before coming up, Atlanta brings up a players regardless of their age. I don't disagree with with what you are saying, but do you see this FO doing that? We were told Ryan and Ober were on innings limits this year.

I would love for them to put Duran in the rotation, but not as 5 innings 80 pitch pitcher, maybe a few starts at the beginning of the year but after that let him go.

[Jeff D.]

Correct. The guy was a stud. Had Lewis stayed healthy, perhaps a different story. Miranda put up a great year, but Duran was consistent. 

Twins Geezer............out!

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Remind anyone of Francisco Liriano?

Look, Duran was a SP all through the minors, but not a very successful one.  I do think the FO needs to consider whether he needs to be put in the rotation, but his body of work in the minors speaks volumes about his potential value as a starter.

Almost all of the best relievers are failed starters.  Duran has high value as a situational reliever, especially if they don't stick him in the closer role and continue to use him in high leverage situations. I would be totally fine if he stayed in his current role.

[h2oface]

11 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I love what Atlanta has done with their prospects, while the Twins seemingly get very old before coming up, Atlanta brings up a players regardless of their age. I don't disagree with with what you are saying, but do you see this FO doing that? We were told Ryan and Ober were on innings limits this year.

I would love for them to put Duran in the rotation, but not as 5 innings 80 pitch pitcher, maybe a few starts at the beginning of the year but after that let him go.

I can only hope. When you see it happening on other teams, it really makes me pine for the Twins having that success, too. 

I personally think his "body of work" in The Show speaks way louder than the minor league body of work. To not let Duran give it a try to be a starter greatly limits his earning potential. He knows that, and his agents will be all over it, too. His success seems to go with his health. I think having him relieve this year was smart. I think he is a young man and not a kid, and ready to be the best he can be as long as he is not injured. I can't consider Duran a failed starter because he has not been given the opportunity yet. Perhaps 2023 is the year. 

[DJL44]

I lean toward letting him develop as a starter next season. If it doesn't work you can always move him back to the bullpen. If it does work you might have an ace pitcher, which is the most valuable thing in baseball. Imagine if they had decided to keep Johan Santana in the bullpen.

[GNess]

Enjoyed the thoughtful responses on both sides of the Duran as a SP question.