Very Early 2023 Look Ahead: FO Needs to be Aggressive AND Patient

[DocBauer]

Just to get the massive elephant out of the room some food and water and tucked away safe and sound, let's just get the injury/health factor put aside. The Twins made a major turnover in their training and medical staffs 2yrs ago, IIRC. To debate, as outside visionaries, that said change was erroneous and should be done yet again is a fools errand at best. We simply don't know if they made a lateral, poor, or upward improvement. We simply aren't close enough to know or understand what has taken place on that front, IMO. Maybe the injury issue has just been a fluke. Maybe the current roster has a number of players simply prone to injury. And I allow that some player acquisitions were made for players with an "expected" injury factor. (Paddack is easy, I'm talking in general). To "predict" injuries or second injuries in many/most situations is impossible. Kirilloff's wrist injury was impossible to predict. So was each of Larnach's unrelated injuries. Nobody expected Lewis to blow out a knee once, much less twice. Sudden shoulder inflammation can't be predicted, etc, etc. Does the FO need to take a long hard look at everything from training habits to rehab to EVERYONE in the system perform pilates on a regular basis to ensure better flexibility and health? Absolutely! (I understand my pilates comment is a bit flippant, but I use it as an example where you need to look at EVERYTHING)!

So let's let the poor elephant get some rest and look at what the FO needs to change and do going forward.

#2] And you're reading that right, I'm starting with #2. Being patient is a sound approach that has paid SOME dividends. Cruz was brought on board by being patient. Donaldson was brought on by being patient. Correa was brought on by being patient. Both fell in their lap by being patient. So being patient does work. Donaldson was actually pretty good, and they moved him in order to move forward, which required some smart maneuvering, and allowed for Correa. Being patient allowed them to sign Lynn to the rotation which didn't turn out. Lynn was good before coming to the Twins and good after leaving. We've heard he might have had a "disappointing" attitude in his tenure, but he was a good signing initially. Waiting, being patient with the market, CAN pay dividends. But....

#1] Make a plan for 2023! And this has been maybe my biggest problem with our FO. While working out details with Buxton last offseason, it felt like they let the rest of the world just pass by. They would not have destroyed the 2022 payroll with ANY acceptable Buxton extension, yet they just ignored the pitching FA market while doing so. So the second large animal in the room is Correa. Do we name this the "hippo" in the room in order to grant the elephant some peace? He'd be very happy to stay from everything he has said and done. Are the Twins in or out? Payroll is always in flux due to attendance and media rights and MLB deals. I state fronting more $ up front makes the most sense while payroll is under control and you allow for extensions and the such, others argue about future value and future expensive contracts won't be as costly due to future media money. I still argue spending more early in a deal for more $ flexibility later. But regardless, put out a legitimate offer, and go from there. You either want to spend $30-35M a year for about 7-8yrs for a top player who would like to stay, or you don't.  But you make a  LEGITIMATE offer to keep him and let he and Boras decide its fair and he wants to stay or you MOVE ON. And quickly!

The Twins have either 15-20M to spend for 2023 or $50-55M. But you can't let yourself be handcuffed.

Terry Ryan used to go shopping early for what he wanted, though usually small deals.

Falvey and Levine have adopted a patient "wait and see" attitude.

What needs to happen, IMO, is a combination of BOTH.

My biggest problem with our current FO is they should, each and every offseason, TARGET that one or two players they really like and want and be AGGRESSIVE to get something DONE. And THEN,  be patient, sit back, and see what falls to you. Each and every season there are SP and BP arms and solid position players that are good performers who just don't get the big deals. Which is great to wait for AFTER you get what you need and want.

Unfortunately, the FO, right now, is stuck in a conundrum they haven't faced before. In previous years, including 2021 and 2022, my "demand" to select who you really need and want and "go for it" and then sit back and wait for the rest works. However,  the Correa situation approaching 2023 complicates what I believe to be a rather simplistic approach in general. But at the end of the day, it still comes down to "making a plan". You're either going to get this done, or you aren't. 

I'm honestly torn as a fan of Correa as to whether the 2023 Twins are better with or without Correa. But make a plan and stick to it. Either sign Correa and augment the rest of the roster as best you can, OR, be aggressive without Correa and move forward. Either way, be aggressive early, get what you want and need, and then be patient. There's room for both. But JUST being patient is not going to bring what this team needs to move forward.

 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how the FO tackles this off-season. What do they think they need to fix or improve? Or do they just think some areas are covered internally. I think that will the most important message of the off-season. In my opinion, I think we have enough offensive players that something should work out and we can be a solid offense. Pitching should be the focus.

[rv78]

Well, they did sign Bundy before the strike so there's that. Ha Ha. What I see is they don't sign difference makers early. They only got Correa because he didnt get the big long-term contract that he wanted. That's the ONLY reason he was still there. One could argue that Cruz and Donaldson kind of fell to them the same way. If they could afford to pay Correa $35M for one season then why can't they do it for 4 or 6? They won't spend for a front line pitcher. Waiting and being patient has not paid dividends there, despite your Lynn reference. Some say that top pitchers don't want to come to Minnesota. The organization isn't committed to winning. Resigning Correa to a deal he would be happy with would be a good starter to convince other good Free Agents that the committment is changing. I see it as a crossroads, which way or shoud I say which message are the Twins going to send this year? That they'll go get good players (early) or take the left-overs?

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, rv78 said:

One could argue that Cruz and Donaldson kind of fell to them the same way.

More than just argue.   I think it's their style, to a T.  Add Lance Lynn to this hall of fame.  They probably touch base right away with most high-end free agents, like any team, and respond to the salary requirements with "woah, too rich for our blood.  Get back to us in January if you don't get what you're hoping for, we're still very interested."  Not a criticism per se, just a reverse-engineering of what we see.

[mnfireman]

If a team is relying on their farm system to supply the talent, then you sign 1 big name free agent in the off-season, which for the most part the team has done. You develop talent in the minors, then when they get ready to hit FA and become too expensive, you trade them for prospects to reload the farm system. Then it becomes lather, rinse, repeat. But the developed talent has gotten hurt or under-performed, making it necessary to sign reclamation projects to fill in the gaps. The FO is betting on these low $$, injury prone players to last long enough for the youngsters to go through their growing pains and then, hopefully, establish themselves. But then the on field talent implodes through injury and/or slumps and then the team is using the 5th and 6th players on the depth chart. 

In a perfect world, Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Ober, Lewis, Alcala and maybe even Balazovic would have already established themselves as solid everyday players, maybe even All-Stars, by now and Kepler, Polanco, Maeda and Sano would remain above average contributors. 

They have tried adding pieces through trades to push the team forward; Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Maeda and Pagan are recent examples, but they also wind up injured or ineffective. 

The FO has been doing what you are saying they need to do, but through bad luck or, maybe, bad decisions, the moves have not worked out.

[Blyleven2011]

Good plan doc ...

I hope the FO is reading and know our diehard twins fans are frustrated  with their current plan ...

They have never inspired the fan base early  ...

[RickOShea]

The FO answers to the Pohlad family, Jim directly.  The Pohlad family's goal is to make a profit.  If the choice is between making a profit or winning a title, they'll take the profit.  I don't believe they believe they can do both and sustain that for any period of time.  I think they feel a championship will fall into their laps.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, RickOShea said:

The FO answers to the Pohlad family, Jim directly.  The Pohlad family's goal is to make a profit.  If the choice is between making a profit or winning a title, they'll take the profit.  I don't believe they believe they can do both and sustain that for any period of time.  I think they feel a championship will fall into their laps.

I have felt the same way for many years ...

It's time for new ownership  , I don't think Jim has a love for the game as his father and mother did  ...

If they spent more wisely on better than average talent their profits might be higher  and fans might get what they want too ...

[ashbury]

44 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It's time for new ownership  , I don't think Jim has a love for the game as his father and mother did  ...

What?  Smilin' Carl Pohlad*?  Love for the game? 

Even the notion that his wife Eloise's love of the game sometimes opened the purse strings, a little, seemed to be nothing more than a polite fiction kept alive by Sid Hartman.

* Patrick Reusse's appelation, I believe, not mine.

[Irishman]

12 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Good plan doc ...

I hope the FO is reading and know our diehard twins fans are frustrated  with their current plan ...

They have never inspired the fan base early  ...

FO won't read this.   i am pretty sure FO know our frustration.   

[Irishman]

11 hours ago, RickOShea said:

The FO answers to the Pohlad family, Jim directly.  The Pohlad family's goal is to make a profit.  If the choice is between making a profit or winning a title, they'll take the profit.  I don't believe they believe they can do both and sustain that for any period of time.  I think they feel a championship will fall into their laps.

Agreed.   

I won't attend those games anymore,   Too expensive!.  Those players' salaries are way too high.  Too greedy!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Is the FO reluctant to spend a lot of money on a catcher, due to the higher likelihood of injuries to catchers? SS, CF, Catcher and the big three in fielding. 2B would come next then maybe right field or 1B. Then 3B and last will be LF. 3B will not be as important from now on, since we will not have the shift next year. A good 1B can make the other infielders better by scooping up their errant throws. I'm fine with Polanco at 2B. Arraez, not so much. I like Arraez at 1B. Where would you play Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Gio, Gordon and Lewis? If Correa signs, where do those 6 play? Will the Twins sign a SS or just wait for Lewis, assuming he can do the job from July forward? Those games in April count just the same as the games in September. I don't think the IF was the problem in 2022, until the month of September. It always has been, and always will be THE PITCHING, which wins or loses games. A fundamentally good fielding catcher, with a strong throwing arm, improves the pitching. Having typed all of this free association thinking, I have come to the conclusion that the Twins need to sign the best catcher that they can sign (it doesn't appear that any minor leaguer in the Twins organization has a chance of ever becoming  a major league catcher) and one or two over-priced, young HEALTHY, stud starting pitchers and two or three over-priced stud relievers. As much as I like Correa, I believe the Twins need a catcher more. The pitchers are necessary whether Correa signs or not. If I were a pitcher, I would want Correa at SS and a healthy Buck in CF , plus some speed in RF and LF, not some slow footed slugger. I'm fine with Gordon in LF fulltime.  Kep will have a better year next year, because he will  continue with his stubborn insistence on pulling the ball to the right side of a soon-to-be shift-less IF, resulting in one or 2 dozen more hits for him.   Jeffers will be an adequate back up catcher. The conundrum of allowing starting pitchers to only pitch 5 innings, thus resulting in relievers having to pitch approximately 4 innings per game, must be solved. The answer appears to either require the starters pitch more innings, or convert some starters to long relievers who will go 3-4 innings, every 3 days. Is that doable? How have the successful teams used their pitchers? I end with these questions: Which one free agent position player would you like the Twins to sign? Which catcher?  Which 1 free agent starting pitcher would you like the Twins to sign? Which long reliever (able to pitch 3 innings) would you like the Twins to sign?

[Number3]

Forget 2023. Just scrounge for the best young players they can find. Actually draft a player whatever their number in the draft that can actually play for the team at some point. Reduce prices at Target and don't try to pretend that they are actually trying to contend unless the opposition hands it to them. Fire the manager as the big move. Baldelli will never lead them anywhere unless they mysteriously set a home run record again. At least the Guardians made it past the Rays after being stated as no threat to the Twins on this board. Just goes to show what a bunch of no names can do with good leadership (see Terry Francona).

[nicksaviking]

17 hours ago, RickOShea said:

The FO answers to the Pohlad family, Jim directly.  The Pohlad family's goal is to make a profit.  If the choice is between making a profit or winning a title, they'll take the profit.  I don't believe they believe they can do both and sustain that for any period of time.  I think they feel a championship will fall into their laps.

That used to be my position, but I highly doubt new owners are going to bump up payroll outside of perhaps the first year or two to gain some goodwill before they start counting their profits. Outside of the anomaly that is St. Louis, I don't think there's any non-major market team that finds themselves in the 12-20 range of the payroll rankings as often as the Twins. Most teams bottom out into the 20-30 range on the regular, but the Twins are almost always in the upper half of the have-nots. I mean, what if this team got Pittsburgh's or Miami's ownership? That would be awful.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

That used to be my position, but I highly doubt new owners are going to bump up payroll outside of perhaps the first year or two to gain some goodwill before they start counting their profits. Outside of the anomaly that is St. Louis, I don't think there's any non-major market team that finds themselves in the 12-20 range of the payroll rankings as often as the Twins. Most teams bottom out into the 20-30 range on the regular, but the Twins are almost always in the upper half of the have-nots. I mean, what if this team got Pittsburgh's or Miami's ownership? That would be awful.

I did some research on MLB salaries by team about a year ago and then tried again recently only to find I couldn't get more than a couple of years before I was blocked now unless a paying member. But generally speaking, from memory as well as the recent seasons I was able to look at again, you are correct that the Twins are generally in the 16-18 spot consistently in average yearly payroll. Depending on which site you look to for such information...as they calculate differently...the Twins dipped to around 20 in both 2018 and 2020. My memory wants to say they were as high as 15th one year in the teens, but I can't confirm that at the moment. Again, it must all be taken with a grain of salt as different sites calculate their numbers differently. And I must note that with a 15th ranking being the medium when based on 30 teams, several of the Twins 16-18M range has been within just a couple of $M from the mean.