Is Baseball Losing Its Soul? Joe Maddon Speaks Out.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, PDX Twin said:

As nearly as I can tell (and I'm NOT an expert), these algorithms are usually simple, deterministic, and based entirely on history. Any deterministic algorithm always gives the same answer, so we never bunt or steal. Because we never bunt or steal, and our opponent knows that we never bunt or steal, they can set the defense to counter what we are going to do without worrying about those possibilities.

The field of Game Theory reflects that the correct solution may be to "do A 33% of the time, do B 66% of the time," etc. 

I certainly hope our team's analytics staff understands such principles.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

6.1, 7.0, 7.1, 7.2

Those are the number of innings the winning team’s starting pitcher pitched on postseason day one. 

Are we sounding like a broken record on this? Yup.
 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

6.1, 7.0, 7.1, 7.2

Those are the number of innings the winning team’s starting pitcher pitched on postseason day one. 

Are we sounding like a broken record on this? Yup.
 

Well sure, the winning team.  When's the last time we were that, in a playoff game, though?

[Riverbrian]

 Some are asking for balance... sounds like a good idea. However... do we know what the current data/gut ratio is?  

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 Some are asking for balance... sounds like a good idea. However... do we know what the current data/gut ratio is?  

 

 

The data-to-gut ratio is something we need the manager to figure out.  Even then, they won’t always make the right call.

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

Well sure, the winning team.  When's the last time we were that, in a playoff game, though?

Losing teams 7 (two runs 27 batters faced 85 pitches) , 6.1 (zero runs 22 batters faced 96 pitches), 5.2 (4 runs 24 batters faced 79 pitches), 4.2 (7 runs 21 batters faced 80 pitches)

Winnings teams pitches - 108, 102, 75, 99

What this tells me is nothing,  other than good starters pitchers should be given a bit more lee-way than less than stellar starters and that in a very short series don't blow though your best relief pitchers if it isn't necessary.

Also if the Twins don't feel like they have a guy or two that can go seven innings when needed next year, well good luck to the bullpens guys.

 

[SkyBlueWaters]

21 hours ago, bighat said:

I wonder what Tommy Lasorda's spreadsheet would have told him about pinch-hitting Kirk Gibson in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series? 

This really puts a fine point on it. Because if the suits had made this decision, Gibson never hobbles to the plate and baseball is robbed of one of its greatest moments of the last half century.

SABRmetrics gains traction after the Lewis book on Beane purports to find under-valued approaches to compete with the higher bankrolls. Except it never translated to playoff success. The A's have been so playoff bad their failure rivals that of the Twins. In fact, the only times this century either team has won, they played each other: Someone had to win.

Talent still wins games, and teams with deep pockets to retain talent like NYY and LAD are regular playoff teams. The game remains stacked. LA acquired David Price and his $217M contract and this year only have 40 IP in relief to show for it. They signed Bauer to $102M and he hasn't pitched for over a year (I understand they got out from under it).

A team like KC or Seattle or P'burgh throws money around like that with nothing to show for it, and their fans would howl. LA doesn't blink. They acquire proven talent from elsewhere in Betts, Trea Turner, Freeman and give them the kind of long-term contract Correa wants. They tossed Justin Turner $34M to DH for them with his 13 HR. Who cares? They're so deep in talent no one minds, LA fans tune in, and the money pours in. 

I'm not saying there is no value to analytics--far from it. It has benefited pitching and defense. But its importance has been over-emphasized against talent, even as it has deadened the game and drained it of color.

[SkyBlueWaters]

On 10/7/2022 at 9:32 AM, FlyingFinn said:

 Analytics worked so well on the defensive shifts (so many said players would adjust and hit the other way which, for most, never happened), that a rule had to made to outlaw it.

This is one of the most interesting aspects of how baseball has changed in the sabrmetric era. Made all the more interesting as a Twins fan, somewhat chagrined by David Ortiz's post-Twins success as he complained about the Twins trying to get him to hit to all fields.

The Twins did have some success with that approach for decades, right? Has analytics' technical approach to pitch selection, coupled with  the shift, made it that much harder for the best athletes to hit to all fields? Because hitting never really did catch up to the shift this century, did it?

Interesting, too, that the shift dates back to Ted Williams, but never gained wider traction. Were hitters in the last half of the 20th century better at hitting to all fields?

p.s. I'd love to see Maddon manage the Twins, too. It would bring back some color.

[twinssporto]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 Some are asking for balance... sounds like a good idea. However... do we know what the current data/gut ratio is?  

 

 

My gut says 70/30 analytics over gut decisions... That's just a gut feeling though......

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The data-to-gut ratio is something we need the manager to figure out.  Even then, they won’t always make the right call.

When the wrong call is made... Is it gut? Is it Data? Should there be more gut? Should there be more data? 

There is a lot that we don't know here... Seems like some know. I wonder how they know. 

[D.C Twins]

Analytics should be one factor that instructs decision making. 

Analytic output only can factor in what is inputted. 

The intangibles of player emotional state, fatigue, and current focus cannot be factored in.

Every nuance of in game situations cannot be factored in real time.

You simply cannot make all your decisions based on analytics in advance and leave out a large amount of real time data from your eyes. 

[bighat]

On 10/7/2022 at 12:32 PM, FlyingFinn said:

Analytics worked so well on the defensive shifts (so many said players would adjust and hit the other way which, for most, never happened), that a rule had to made to outlaw it.

I think the reason for this - the pitching is just too good, it's outpaced the offense in terms of advancement over the past 20 years. 

When you're trying to hit a 98-104 MPH fastball almost every at bat, you simply can't make that 2nd adjustment at the plate. Batters have been taught to just try and generate "hard contact" and exit velocity is the goal. 

[UpstateNewYorker]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

I think the reason for this - the pitching is just too good, it's outpaced the offense in terms of advancement over the past 20 years. 

When you're trying to hit a 98-104 MPH fastball almost every at bat, you simply can't make that 2nd adjustment at the plate. Batters have been taught to just try and generate "hard contact" and exit velocity is the goal. 

Agreed. On one of the Twins' broadcasts this year Dick asked Justin why most batters can't hit to the opposite field anymore. His explanation was basically: the modern swing has become very technical and batters spend hours practicing launch angle, backspin, trigger mechanisms, etc., that they just can't make adjustments. Even so, Kepler could hit .290 if he just bunted to the open left side of the infield occasionally. 

[Squirrel]

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

When the wrong call is made... Is it gut? Is it Data? Should there be more gut? Should there be more data? 

There is a lot that we don't know here... Seems like some know. I wonder how they know. 

Yes.

Seriously, though, I think you’ve said this very well, and I’ll take it a step further and surmise that whenever a poster here thinks the wrong call was made, it’s based solely on the outcome they didn’t want and then blame whatever/whoever they dislike and then it gives them the platform to spout their dislikes, over and over again. Wash, rinse, repeat, And I’m sure sometimes they are right. After all, a broken clock is right twice a day. There is no way to know for certain what is happening, how or why certain decisions are made. Have we gotten too analytical? I’m not certain that’s correct. But … I do think that some teams are better at analyzing the data and coming to better conclusions.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

 and surmise that whenever a poster here thinks the wrong call was made, it’s based solely on the outcome they didn’t want and then blame whatever/whoever they dislike and then it gives them the platform to spout their dislikes, over and over again. Wash, rinse, repeat, And I’m sure sometimes they are right. After all, a broken clock is right twice a day.

I don’t think so. Just because one fan doesn’t understand some thing, doesn’t mean that other fans cannot possibly understand it. 

The last thing you said about some teams applying analytics better than other teams is something I think most of us can agree on. 

[Craig Arko]

On 10/8/2022 at 1:43 PM, Riverbrian said:

When the wrong call is made... Is it gut? Is it Data? Should there be more gut? Should there be more data? 

There is a lot that we don't know here... Seems like some know. I wonder how they know. 

“Those who know don’t talk. Those who talk don’t know. Close your mouth, block off your senses, blunt your sharpness, untie your knots, soften your glare, settle your dust. This is the primal identity. Be like the Tao. It can’t be approached or withdrawn from, benefited or harmed, honored or brought into disgrace. It gives itself up continually. That is why it endures.” — Old Taoist proverb

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

“Those who know don’t talk. Those who talk don’t know.

This can be used as good advice.  Also as a cudgel to silence or marginalize the knowledgeable.

[Craig Arko]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

This can be used as good advice.  Also as a cudgel to silence or marginalize the knowledgeable.

As can most things.

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

“Those who know don’t talk. Those who talk don’t know. Close your mouth, block off your senses, blunt your sharpness, untie your knots, soften your glare, settle your dust. This is the primal identity. Be like the Tao. It can’t be approached or withdrawn from, benefited or harmed, honored or brought into disgrace. It gives itself up continually. That is why it endures.” — Old Taoist proverb

Lots of talk.

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Lots of talk.

Please elaborate.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I don’t think so. Just because one fan doesn’t understand some thing, doesn’t mean that other fans cannot possibly understand

Yeah, no … the thing is you don’t know what’s going on in the dugout, you don’t know what’s being discussed, what numbers are being used and how or maybe not at all. Game threads are absolutely a **** storm in this regard. It’s people who think they know and know better and looking for excuses to crab about the game and the Twins. And I’m not saying that no one should be upset about the state of things, but you don’t know truly what and why things are being decided. Yes, a few know baseball really well, but no, you are privy to nothing and most just are overly nostalgic in a not so good way, about how they miss baseball yesteryear. 

[davidborton]

"Efficiency over entertainment." Theo Epstein knows front offices. His recommendation: Limit teams to 11 pitchers, no more.

[USAFChief]

34 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah, no … the thing is you don’t know what’s going on in the dugout, you don’t know what’s being discussed, what numbers are being used and how or maybe not at all. Game threads are absolutely a **** storm in this regard. It’s people who think they know and know better and looking for excuses to crab about the game and the Twins. And I’m not saying that no one should be upset about the state of things, but you don’t know truly what and why things are being decided. Yes, a few know baseball really well, but no, you are privy to nothing and most just are overly nostalgic in a not so good way, about how they miss baseball yesteryear. 

 

Haven't you been a proponent of the theory we can't blame Rocco (aka "the dugout") because he's simply an extension of the front office? Pitching decisions are the result of analytics? Another manager would simply be more of the same? The front office makes all the decisions?

 

But now we don't know what's going on?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

“The Angels front office under Joe Maddon”

”The Twins front office under Rocco”

”Followers of the Tao”

 

“Name three groups who could learn to use their bullpens better” 

[SkyBlueWaters]

1 hour ago, davidborton said:

"Efficiency over entertainment." Theo Epstein knows front offices. His recommendation: Limit teams to 11 pitchers, no more.

 

Would this mean position players are not allowed to pitch? So guys like Nick Gordon aren't allowed to fill in during laughers?

If position players are not allowed to pitch, what happens to Ohtani?

 

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

 

Haven't you been a proponent of the theory we can't blame Rocco (aka "the dugout") because he's simply an extension of the front office? Pitching decisions are the result of analytics? Another manager would simply be more of the same? The front office makes all the decisions?

 

But now we don't know what's going on?

I have been a proponent that I don’t think the manager really affects the outcome all that much. And yes, the style of play that people criticize when they say ‘Fire Baldelli’ I think would continue with a new manager under this FO. And I have fully admitted that I wouldn’t do much better and I’m not someone who should be in charge and I’m very clear that I’m stating opinions. I think those are all things that don’t impose a pov of knowing better as many express, as if they know what went into each decision and it’s wrong because it wasn’t the desired outcome. Because I don’t know. And I don’t think any of us does, yet many act as they do. I can still be disappointed with an outcome and not go off the blame rails as if I knew for certain what the better course was.

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 

The last thing you said about some teams applying analytics better than other teams is something I think most of us can agree on. 

Which teams? 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I have been a proponent that I don’t think the manager really affects the outcome all that much. And yes, the style of play that people criticize when they say ‘Fire Baldelli’ I think would continue with a new manager under this FO. And I have fully admitted that I wouldn’t do much better and I’m not someone who should be in charge and I’m very clear that I’m stating opinions. I think those are all things that don’t impose a pov of knowing better as many express, as if they know what went into each decision and it’s wrong because it wasn’t the desired outcome. Because I don’t know. And I don’t think any of us does, yet many act as they do. I can still be disappointed with an outcome and not go off the blame rails as if I knew for certain what the better course was.

The practice of scapegoating has out lasted almost every baseball manager in history. ?

[Squirrel]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The practice of scapegoating has out lasted almost every baseball manager in history. ?

So true

[AceWrigley]

On 10/7/2022 at 8:32 AM, Whitey333 said:

Great article.  I'm glad some people are speaking out about the very boring analytic, antiseptic approach baseball has taken.  It has ruined a game many of us once loved.  To me it's amazing and a little mystifying that the "new"  group of upper echelon baseball management personnel have decided they know baseball better than anyone else.  They think they are reinventing something that didn't need reinvesting.  So they are so egotistical to think that what worked for over 100 years in baseball was wrong and they have the right game going now.  Oh please stop now before the game is ruined for good.

It a'int just Baseball. This has and is happening across many industries from water and forest management, climate and even supply management. What used to work and "old" data now take a 2nd row seat to new models, constructs and analytics created by "highly educated" individuals who are put in decision making positions because of their "high education" and rely on the new metrics to the point of detriment.