Is Baseball Losing Its Soul? Joe Maddon Speaks Out.

[h2oface]

 

I would love for Joe Maddon to be manager of our Minnesota Twins. But the more I read about Joe Maddon and his recent firing, I feel the state of the Minnesota Twins and Front Office Control is right in line with the Angels, many other teams, and the Puppet Managers that either sign on, or have no job. Is Baldelli in control of anything, really? Pregame “choreography” and pitching woes may not change as long as the numbers people keep sapping the soul out of Major League Baseball. But I doubt they will take the blame.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/10/06/joe-maddon-tom-verducci-book-excerpt

Just a taste for you.........

"Moreover, what Maddon calls a pregame “choreography” took root, spearheaded by Minasian and Tamin. Those two, not Maddon and his coaches, would decide which relief pitchers were not available for the game that night. It was based on a proprietary algorithm developed by Tamin that kept track of a pitcher’s work in rolling 30-day increments. In recent years it had become common for front offices to usurp control of the bullpen from managers. So-and-so “is down tonight” entered baseball parlance, and it came from upstairs. “In that losing stretch that led to my demise, a lot of relievers were made unavailable,” Maddon says. “I couldn’t use them."

```````````````````````````````````````````````````

"What happened between Minasian and Maddon tells a familiar story of what has happened to the role of the manager—and baseball itself. The power shift from the dugout to the front office over more than a quarter of a century has changed how the game is played, and its value system. Knowledge over wisdom. Technology over teaching. Data over art. Efficiency over entertainment.

As front offices seized control, games grew longer, with less action, and there were more pitching changes, more fungibility of personnel and fewer fans. (Attendance has declined slowly but steadily since the all-time per-game high in 2007.) Meanwhile, baseball managers ceased being celebrities. It happened in part because the replay challenge system reduced colorful arguments with umpires, but mostly because managers operated with less power and job security than general managers. To survive, they adopted the bland corporate-speak of their bosses."

“Tam had the 30-day matrix built on how to use relief pitchers, how often and how much rest they needed. Honestly, that’s insulting.”

Maddon read body language, mechanics, clues in how his players answered his questions . . . all the insights gleaned from 42 seasons in professional baseball. The modern front office, however, has too much access to data to rely on the instincts of a veteran manager. Minasian and Tamin were not revolutionaries. They were deploying methodologies that had become mainstream. Says Maddon, “If you’ve grown up in an era of understanding the game and how important it is beyond the numbers to connect with people and establish patience and relationships with your players in order to have success, it’s hard to get on the same page with front offices today.

“Other managers that I’ve spoken with, guys with experience, feel the same way, and they are encouraging me to speak up. This is not an attempt by me to ‘get even’ or anything like that. I’m not trying to protect myself. It’s exposure. If you’re a baseball fan, if you love the game and care about the game, you should know what is behind how the game is being played today.”

 

Sound or seem familiar?

[UpstateNewYorker]

15 minutes ago, h2oface said:

I would love for Joe Maddon to be manager of our Minnesota Twins. But the more I read about Joe Maddon and his recent firing, the state of the Minnesota Twins and Front Office Control is right in line with the Angels, many other teams, and the Puppet Managers that either sign on, or have no job. Is Baldelli in control of anything, really? Pregame “choreography” and pitching woes may not change as long as the numbers people keep sapping the soul out of Major League Baseball. But I doubt they will take the blame.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/10/06/joe-maddon-tom-verducci-book-excerpt

Just a taste for you.........

"Moreover, what Maddon calls a pregame “choreography” took root, spearheaded by Minasian and Tamin. Those two, not Maddon and his coaches, would decide which relief pitchers were not available for the game that night. It was based on a proprietary algorithm developed by Tamin that kept track of a pitcher’s work in rolling 30-day increments. In recent years it had become common for front offices to usurp control of the bullpen from managers. So-and-so “is down tonight” entered baseball parlance, and it came from upstairs. “In that losing stretch that led to my demise, a lot of relievers were made unavailable,” Maddon says. “I couldn’t use them."

```````````````````````````````````````````````````

"What happened between Minasian and Maddon tells a familiar story of what has happened to the role of the manager—and baseball itself. The power shift from the dugout to the front office over more than a quarter of a century has changed how the game is played, and its value system. Knowledge over wisdom. Technology over teaching. Data over art. Efficiency over entertainment.

As front offices seized control, games grew longer, with less action, and there were more pitching changes, more fungibility of personnel and fewer fans. (Attendance has declined slowly but steadily since the all-time per-game high in 2007.) Meanwhile, baseball managers ceased being celebrities. It happened in part because the replay challenge system reduced colorful arguments with umpires, but mostly because managers operated with less power and job security than general managers. To survive, they adopted the bland corporate-speak of their bosses."

“Tam had the 30-day matrix built on how to use relief pitchers, how often and how much rest they needed. Honestly, that’s insulting.”

Maddon read body language, mechanics, clues in how his players answered his questions . . . all the insights gleaned from 42 seasons in professional baseball. The modern front office, however, has too much access to data to rely on the instincts of a veteran manager. Minasian and Tamin were not revolutionaries. They were deploying methodologies that had become mainstream. Says Maddon, “If you’ve grown up in an era of understanding the game and how important it is beyond the numbers to connect with people and establish patience and relationships with your players in order to have success, it’s hard to get on the same page with front offices today.

“Other managers that I’ve spoken with, guys with experience, feel the same way, and they are encouraging me to speak up. This is not an attempt by me to ‘get even’ or anything like that. I’m not trying to protect myself. It’s exposure. If you’re a baseball fan, if you love the game and care about the game, you should know what is behind how the game is being played today.”

 

Sound or seem familiar?

Very interesting -- thanks for posting.  It's worth noting that the Angels have been terrible under their current front office.

[Longdistancetwins]

Truly fascinating, and at the same time familiar and depressing.  Thanks for this.

[TopGunn#22]

Sadly, this is what baseball is becoming.  The "game" will always thrill.  Great players making great plays will always be a given.  But baseball guys like Madden or Paul Molitor are being fazed out.  It is inevitable that we will see "computer controlled home plate/strike zone umps."  Sometimes the call of a strike, or lack of one is maddening, but that's always been a part of baseball.  This antiseptic approach to the game has always had me just a bit "uneasy."  How would today's analytics treat a relief pitcher like Mike Marshall, Goose Gossage or Hoyt Whilhelm ???  

[Whitey333]

Great article.  I'm glad some people are speaking out about the very boring analytic, antiseptic approach baseball has taken.  It has ruined a game many of us once loved.  To me it's amazing and a little mystifying that the "new"  group of upper echelon baseball management personnel have decided they know baseball better than anyone else.  They think they are reinventing something that didn't need reinvesting.  So they are so egotistical to think that what worked for over 100 years in baseball was wrong and they have the right game going now.  Oh please stop now before the game is ruined for good.

[nicksaviking]

I don't know that anything can be done about it.  I get that the analytics aren't working for every team, but any team that decides to go back to the manage-by-the-seat-of-their-pants method so they can play "fun" baseball, will more often than not  be playing losing baseball, which never seems fun.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

You knew something changed with managers and Joe exposed that for all to see.  Thank you Joe Maddon.

As a long time baseball fan this sickens me.  Also, you can now stop blaming everything on Rocco.

[Original_JB]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

 How would today's analytics treat a relief pitcher like Mike Marshall, Goose Gossage or Hoyt Whilhelm ???  

The Braves of the late 80's through the 90's SPs would have been hosed. Greg Maddux? Oh, that guy that walked 5 straight batters?

[Mike Sixel]

Weird he never felt that way under two well run teams, but does now under a poorly run franchise.....I think that context matters.

That said, this is no different than any big business. If you work for one, you know that centralization swings on a pendulum, and that it will swing back to less control at some point. 

[DJL44]

There seems to be a lot of decisions made based on broad overall trends that don't acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in the data. Managing a bullpen based on how the average reliever performed with a certain workload in the past without figuring out that the relievers in your current bullpen aren't all average. Athletes are not dice, they're not as predictable as people want to believe. There is a lot of "special cause" variation that isn't related to "common cause" trends.

One simple example - the manager is going to know which guys partied all night last night and are hungover. The spreadsheet won't.

[FlyingFinn]

I think the best run teams (manager/FO) are ones that have a balance with analytics and reading the players each day - knowing when something about this player is different (could be good or bad) today and we have to adjust for this. Analytics worked so well on the defensive shifts (so many said players would adjust and hit the other way which, for most, never happened), that a rule had to made to outlaw it.

[DJL44]

The spreadsheet says that everything about athletic performance being related to attitude, desire and determination is complete ********. I would say there has always been some ******** when it comes to mental attitude determining who wins and loses an athletic contest (you want me to believe the other guy didn't want to win?) but it isn't ALL ********. Athletes can rise above their median level of performance with focus and determination. A player who isn't prepared on a certain day isn't going to do well. More importantly - weird, unpredictable stuff happens ALL THE TIME in baseball.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Analytics worked so well on the defensive shifts (so many said players would adjust and hit the other way which, for most, never happened), that a rule had to made to outlaw it.

This is partly because the same organizations told all of their batters to continue pulling the ball to try to hit dingers. Nobody was willing to be the contrarian and use speed to bunt to beat the shift.

[4twinsJA]

I agree with Mike S., analytics are the hot way to manage now. When someone wins using more old school ways, pendulum will swing that way. 

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

I agree with Mike S., analytics are the hot way to manage now. When someone wins using more old school ways, pendulum will swing that way. 

Not to speak for Mike, but I don't think that's quite what he meant. Analytics are here to stay. Math is free, any team that stops using it in favor of 'managerial gut feelings' is foolish.

I think Mike was saying that right now, delegation and micro-managing by a front office committee is the trend, at some point, the micro-managing may stop. Pretty sure all new managers are going to be on board with an analytical approach though. Maddon himself always has been.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think Mike was saying that right now, delegation and micro-managing by a front office committee is the trend

Remember this in a few years. No managers from this era deserve the Hall of Fame. They're just following orders.

[TwinsDr2021]

38 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

I agree with Mike S., analytics are the hot way to manage now. When someone wins using more old school ways, pendulum will swing that way. 

These playoffs could be a sign, teams love to copy cat other teams, and there are teams in this playoffs that let some of their starters go a bit longer, used a starter or piggy backing when less starters, teams that had guys run more (stolen bases, getting players moving on the pitch). If that trend continues in the playoffs and works, then teams might be willing to try that a bit more, they won't being going back to the 80's style, but front offices and managers might see that pitchers pitch a little different when there is a chance the guy may steal or when players are moving behind them. I heard a former pitcher (sorry can't remember his name) say it is way easier pitching with guys on base when you know there is little to no chance the guy is stealing, your whole repertoire is available, you can throw a curve down and away for example.

[Longdistancetwins]

46 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

 Pretty sure all new managers are going to be on board with an analytical approach though. Maddon himself always has been.

Yes, that’s the weird part:  As I remember it, Maddon used to be Exhibit A of a manager who incorporated analytics.  

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, Longdistancetwins said:

Yes, that’s the weird part:  As I remember it, Maddon used to be Exhibit A of a manager who incorporated analytics.  

He is still on board with analytics. Also on board with balance, and a manager using analytics, but not being a puppet of an out of control FO. Incorporating analytics doesn't have to mean you are controlled and ruled by them.

[heresthething]

Great topic to bring up h2oface.  As I'm reading this the question that comes to mind is where are all these sports writers on this topic and why aren't they point blank asking the managers or the FO more specific questions as to in game management?  They gotta have some clue this is going on and it would make a story.  Hopefully the major sports outlets will dig into this in great detail.  After all, if there are these behind the scenes analysts controlling the game I want to know who we have and we can start bringing the necessary accolades or criticism they so richly deserve that matches their level of control.  Seems fair doesn't it?

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Sadly, this is what baseball is becoming.  The "game" will always thrill.  Great players making great plays will always be a given.  But baseball guys like Madden or Paul Molitor are being fazed out.  It is inevitable that we will see "computer controlled home plate/strike zone umps."  Sometimes the call of a strike, or lack of one is maddening, but that's always been a part of baseball.  This antiseptic approach to the game has always had me just a bit "uneasy."  How would today's analytics treat a relief pitcher like Mike Marshall, Goose Gossage or Hoyt Whilhelm ???  

I don't feel that getting the ball and strike calls consistent - and above all, correct and accurate - with the best tools we have, analytics, and I have been an advocate of it since its inception. The only reason inaccurate inconsistent and make believe strike zones were a part of the game was there was no way to do it better. Now there is. It is not analytics to use a now available way to get it right, any more than the touch pad in the swimming pool is analytics to get the winner of the race right and not a judgement call by a human that is not able to do it correctly. No need to have a professional guesser call the balls and strikes when there is a better way now. It doesn't change the game at all It just makes it fair for both the batter and pitcher, and is one less way the game is skewed by human error, and a result is based on the play and not the umpires best guess. But that is a different discussion. Correct or incorrect calls by umpires has nothing to do with analytics, really.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, heresthething said:

where are all these sports writers on this topic?

Do they still exist? I thought all we had left were bloggers and game recap software bots.

[bighat]

This snippet really spoke to me: 

"Knowledge over wisdom. Technology over teaching. Data over art. Efficiency over entertainment." There's honestly no better way to sum up the Minnesota Twins in the Falvine/Rocco era. 

I wonder what Tommy Lasorda's spreadsheet would have told him about pinch-hitting Kirk Gibson in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series? Lasorda used his gut to make that call, it was a "hunch" or a "feeling" that can't be categorized in any statistical category. Now I'm sure a whiz kid GM would be quick to point out that those "hunches" don't always work and thus the spreadsheet is more trustworthy.....but when they do work out, they produce magic that will bring people back to the ballpark for 40 years or more. That's got value. And that's what the spreadsheets aren't catching. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The spreadsheet says that everything about athletic performance being related to attitude, desire and determination is complete ********. I would say there has always been some ******** when it comes to mental attitude determining who wins and loses an athletic contest (you want me to believe the other guy didn't want to win?) but it isn't ALL ********. Athletes can rise above their median level of performance with focus and determination. A player who isn't prepared on a certain day isn't going to do well. More importantly - weird, unpredictable stuff happens ALL THE TIME in baseball.

Do you have any evidence for this?

Analytics doesn't say anything will happen or not with any certainty..... I'm not sure your point in that last sentence?

[Vanimal46]

I’ve contemplated over the last couple of years whether I still enjoy Major League Baseball. My hope is efficiency over entertainment is a temporary era like most things in the sport’s history. Because right now, the 5 and fly starters, carousel of relievers, and every player swinging for the fences is not fun to watch. I’ve been watching fewer games each passing year. 

Who or what is going to stop MLB from moving in this direction? 

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’ve contemplated over the last couple of years whether I still enjoy Major League Baseball. My hope is efficiency over entertainment is a temporary era like most things in the sport’s history. Because right now, the 5 and fly starters, carousel of relievers, and every player swinging for the fences is not fun to watch. I’ve been watching fewer games each passing year. 

Who or what is going to stop MLB from moving in this direction? 

Given record revenue? Nothing.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Do you have any evidence for this?

Analytics doesn't say anything will happen or not with any certainty..... I'm not sure your point in that last sentence?

No, but they're making decisions (this pitcher is unavailable today) like it does have that certainty. Analytics can tell you trends but there is so much noise around athletic performance on a given day. With insufficient data, assume the base rate but be prepared to deviate from "the plan" if a pitcher is having a good day. Data analytics can't tell you about individual performance on a certain day.

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Given record revenue? Nothing.

That’s my fear. And if that’s the case, then my time as an MLB fan is numbered. The league continues to shoot themselves in the foot chasing today’s dollar at the expense of future revenue. They won’t realize their mistake until it’s too late. 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, but they're making decisions (this pitcher is unavailable today) like it does have that certainty. Analytics can tell you trends but there is so much noise around athletic performance on a given day. With insufficient data, assume the base rate but be prepared to deviate from "the plan" if a pitcher is having a good day. Data analytics can't tell you about individual performance on a certain day.

no one claimed it can. 

[PDX Twin]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

any team that decides to go back to the manage-by-the-seat-of-their-pants method so they can play "fun" baseball, will more often than not  be playing losing baseball, which never seems fun.

Unlike, say, the Twins and Angels, whose advanced analytics have them battling to stay out of the cellar?

A blend would be nice. Use the analytics to suggest, not to decide. Let the manager read the players and make decisions taking the analysis into account, but also thinking about what he knows/thinks about the player and situation. Then if the manager fails, it's his fault and he can be fired.

As nearly as I can tell (and I'm NOT an expert), these algorithms are usually simple, deterministic, and based entirely on history. Any deterministic algorithm always gives the same answer, so we never bunt or steal. Because we never bunt or steal, and our opponent knows that we never bunt or steal, they can set the defense to counter what we are going to do without worrying about those possibilities.

It's great to have our hitters know what pitch that particular pitcher/catcher/manager is likely to choose, but then let the hitter read the pitcher and the defense, using the historical knowledge but also observing the current situation. It seems obvious to me. Analysis is a tool, not a religion.