Article: The Future of Ron Gardenhire

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1654-The-Future-of-Ron-Gardenhire

[nicksaviking]

Good write up. Kelly survived during a the terrible stretch but that began nearly 2 decades ago now. We are in an era where managers in all sports have a much shorter leash and I think non-coincedentally we are in an era with an explsion of media outlets and fan interaction. As beloved as TK was, I don't think he would have survived 1993-2000 if there were so many venues for fans, bloggers, and journalists local and national, to point out every fault.

 

I think you're right that Gardenhire is safe, in fact if this team finishes at .500 he may get an extension longer than he has received in the past. However, if things go sour, say +90 loses sour, I can't imagine he has a leash as long as Kelly's. They just don't make them in that size anymore.

[Aaron Cross]

He should have been fired after they were once again swept out of the playoffs in 2010. No manager survives 0-12 in their last 12 playoff games.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Good write up. Kelly survived during a the terrible stretch but that began nearly 2 decades ago now. We are in an era where managers in all sports have a much shorter leash and I think non-coincedentally we are in an era with an explsion of media outlets and fan interaction. As beloved as TK was, I don't think he would have survived 1993-2000 if there were so many venues for fans, bloggers, and journalists local and national, to point out every fault.

 

I think you're right that Gardenhire is safe, in fact if this team finishes at .500 he may get an extension longer than he has received in the past. However, if things go sour, say +90 loses sour, I can't imagine he has a leash as long as Kelly's. They just don't make them in that size anymore.

 

I have to wonder about this - is social media really that influential? Maybe it's just the generational thing, but I really don't give much weight to blogs and web forums in general. They're fun to read and to post on, and once in a while I learn something, but I would never take them as an accurate reflection of the population in general. I just know too many people who don't take it that seriously and don't base their worldview on them. Does that mean I'm old?

 

I guess I see the declining average tenure in sports management as a response more to an expectation of immediate gratification from ownership rather than a response to media pressure.

 

I do agree that Gardenhire is at the end of his leash - he needs 75 wins MINIMUM or he's probably gone.

[Willihammer]

He should have been fired after they were once again swept out of the playoffs in 2010. No manager survives 0-12 in their last 12 playoff games.

 

 

Ah the Twins would have won game 1 if Liriano had just beared down and gotten through Swisher, Tex, A-rod, Cano etc. in the 6th instead of squandering the 3-0 lead like he did. Similarly in game two, tied going into the 7th, Pavano could have gotten through Posada, Berkman, and Gardner if he'd just beared down. Neither of those guys even threw 100 pitches!

[snepp]

I have to wonder about this - is social media really that influential? Maybe it's just the generational thing, but I really don't give much weight to blogs and web forums in general. They're fun to read and to post on, and once in a while I learn something, but I would never take them as an accurate reflection of the population in general.

 

 

I don't know meaningful this is, but it only took social media a few hours to get the Twins to back off those moronic BP plans that were "unintentionally" leaked.

[nicksaviking]

I have to wonder about this - is social media really that influential? ...

 

I guess I see the declining average tenure in sports management as a response more to an expectation of immediate gratification from ownership rather than a response to media pressure.

 

I don't think these things are unrelated. I think the internet age has absolutely driven the immediate gratification expectation that is prelevant in our society today. As such, it has also expanded the forums in which we can voice our expectations loudly and often.

[jacku641]

Historically the model of consistent leadership was the Dodgers. They had 2 managers from 1953 to 1996. Since then they've been a bit more "fluid". The question I would ask those who feel Gardenhire should be let go is "Who do you replace him with?"

[ThePuck]

I'd like the Twins to pry Ryne Sandberg from the Phillies before he replaces Manuel

[Badsmerf]

Ah the Twins would have won game 1 if Liriano had just beared down and gotten through Swisher, Tex, A-rod, Cano etc. in the 6th instead of squandering the 3-0 lead like he did. Similarly in game two, tied going into the 7th, Pavano could have gotten through Posada, Berkman, and Gardner if he'd just beared down. Neither of those guys even threw 100 pitches!

/fail

[Winston Smith]

Fact: The Twins have not won a playoff game since 2004. Fact: the goal is to win the World Series. Winning the world series takes winning 13 playoff games in one year. It takes 13 and we can't win one!!

If you are happy with the Twins in the mix in the Central, winning a title every few years and going out 0-3 in the playoffs then Gardy should be retained. If you would like to see another deep run or real chance to win a world series then we need a change.

Is it all Gardys fault no. But after this long and this record whatever he is doing is not helping or working when you consider post season.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Time to move on he had a nice run and will get a new job.

How many managers last 10 years without a playoff win?

[Guest USAFChief]

The franchise is evolving, with a new stadium and new players. It's time for a new manager.

[snepp]

The franchise is evolving, with a new stadium and new players. It's time for a new manager.

 

It would be nice if the payroll started evolving again as well.

[PseudoSABR]

The franchise is evolving, with a new stadium and new players. It's time for a new manager.

Change for changes sake isn't a convincing argument to me. I'd either need to be convinced of Gardenhire's failings (rather than the FO's) or that his replacement is somehow discernibly better.

[COtwin]

The ONLY argument that needs to be made is 0-12. Kinda hard to look at all the talent that could be coming and think, "Man we are gonna win the Central almost every year." I have little/no faith that Gardy can get us a WS appearance, much less a win. It scares me to think how much of the coming era of talent could be wasted with him as manager. We can even stay in house for the hiring. Doug or Bruno certainly seem to be able to get guys performing up to potential.

[IdahoPilgrim]

The ONLY argument that needs to be made is 0-12. Kinda hard to look at all the talent that could be coming and think, "Man we are gonna win the Central almost every year." I have little/no faith that Gardy can get us a WS appearance, much less a win. It scares me to think how much of the coming era of talent could be wasted with him as manager. We can even stay in house for the hiring. Doug or Bruno certainly seem to be able to get guys performing up to potential.

 

Coaching and managing are two different animals. Is there any evidence that they would necessarily do bett​er? And I don't count a partial season at high-A with stellar talent as a fair comparison.

[COtwin]

Evidence probably not. But we already have evidence that Gardy can't win when it matters. Some of those teams had a lot of talent and went nowhere. Maybe just having someone around they are familiar with will help the young guys transition easier.

[PseudoSABR]

Some of those teams had a lot of talent and went nowhere.

Which ones?

 

The Twins seemed to always exceed what experts expected of them (and their payroll). Did they ever finish with the best record in the AL?

[TheLeviathan]

Which ones?

 

The Twins seemed to always exceed what experts expected of them (and their payroll). Did they ever finish with the best record in the AL?

 

2010? Edit: nope. Damn faulty memory.....

[Guest USAFChief]

Change for changes sake isn't a convincing argument to me. I'd either need to be convinced of Gardenhire's failings (rather than the FO's) or that his replacement is somehow discernibly better.

That's a fair point. I would counter that stability for stability's sake isn't a convincing argument either. A fresh set of eyes, a new voice, a different focus, can and have been good for organizations. It's also very possible the next guy could be bad for the organization, I certainly understand that. But Ron Gardenhire isn't going to be the manager forever, so change is coming, it's a matter of when. I think the time is now, as (hopefully) the new crop leads to a half decade of talented teams, with a new manager injecting confidence, enthusiasm, and hopefully a better sense of when to take out Pelfrey. As for who's better, I have no idea. Someone youngish, smart, with a tolerance for risk taking and exploring new ideas.

[Boom Boom]

Which ones?

 

The Twins seemed to always exceed what experts expected of them (and their payroll). Did they ever finish with the best record in the AL?

 

The Twins were pretty rock-solid from 2001-2006. The experts underrated them.

[cmathewson]

<Insert mention of Molitor here>.

[Guest USAFChief]

Which ones?

 

2006? AL MVP and CYA winners. Mauer 6th in MVP, pretty good talent throughout the roster (Cuddyer, Hunter, Bartlett, etc). Short on starting pitching after Santana (once Liriano went down), but a really strong bullpen. That team won 96 games but got swept 3-0 in the first round. That one still sticks in my craw. 2010 maybe as well.

[troyhobbs]

Gardy's an average manager in my opinion. Not great but not terrible. Guys love playing for him though and that should count for something. The Yankees' domination of theTwins can't all fall on Gardy, at some point your studs need to come through in the clutch. I'm rooting for Gardy but if they bring someone else in that is better suited to lead the Twins back to the promise land, so be it.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Fact: The Twins have not won a playoff game since 2004. Fact: the goal is to win the World Series. Winning the world series takes winning 13 playoff games in one year. It takes 13 and we can't win one!!

If you are happy with the Twins in the mix in the Central, winning a title every few years and going out 0-3 in the playoffs then Gardy should be retained. If you would like to see another deep run or real chance to win a world series then we need a change.

Is it all Gardys fault no. But after this long and this record whatever he is doing is not helping or working when you consider post season.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Time to move on he had a nice run and will get a new job.

How many managers last 10 years without a playoff win?

 

Well said. However, I take small issue with a few of your comments.

The goal is indeed to win the World Series every year. That is a given. But the EXPECTATION should never be more than a playoff birth. Anything more is what I used to call "Yankee arrogance." I expect my Twins to field a team that can consistently make the playoffs and give themselves the opportunity to achieve their goal of winning the World Series.

Second, no on would dispute Gardy's relative lack of success in the playoff. However, let's remember how flawed many of those playoff teams were. I also don't think it's entirely fair to view Gardy as a static entity over the course of his managing career. Trouble managing a team to a win in 2006 doesn't necessarily translate to continued lack of success 7 years later. For the record I think Gardy has done a very good job this year.

 

All that said, I find myself grudgingly coming around to the "fresh eyes" argument. I still don't want Gardy fired, but I would no longer be upset if the team went in a new (intelligent) direction.

[Highabove]

Even the top Manager in the game may bring in extra help when he needs it.

 

 

[Thrylos]

The Twins were pretty rock-solid from 2001-2006. The experts underrated them.

 

the 2006 team was slated by the "experts" of ESPN (the majority of their 30some panelists) to win it all right after the regular season. Not under-rated. Just under-delivered.

[jimbo92107]

The best indication that the Twins are looking for Gardenhire's replacement is the number of qualified candidates that have recently been brought into the organization. Some of the more obvious candidates are Gene Glynn, Doug Mientkiewicz, Tom Brunanski, and Terry Steinbach. Other possibles might include Jake Mauer and Paul Molitor. A couple years ago, none of these guys were around.

 

If the team has another really sucky season, management is giving itself options.

[Hugh Morris]

the 2006 team was slated by the "experts" of ESPN (the majority of their 30some panelists) to win it all right after the regular season. Not under-rated. Just under-delivered.

 

Okay, I'll stop lurking (from Day 1. Nice site ya'll) to bite on this one.

 

What part of the Twins 2006 playoff performance would you lay on Gardy?

 

There was game 1, where Johan lost a pitching duel with the still-very-effective, all-star selection Barry Zito. Not great, but your team getting shut down by Barry Zito wasn't something you'd lose your job for back in 2006.

 

There was game 2, which Boof Bonser had to start (as I recall, I admittedly may be wrong here) because Liriano's rehab failed... as it turns out, he required Tommy John. I suppose you could blame Gardy for the conditions that led to the surgery, but "too cautious with his pitchers" would be a pretty novel Gardy complaint. Even then, Boof kept the team in the game until Torii made that illfated diving attempt to grab a liner late. Was an attempt at defensive wizardry from one of the most respected defensive CFs of his era, in his prime, Gardy's error?

 

Then there was game 3. Given that he'd been shut down for the bulk of September and had a pretty miserable post-allstar break season, I can see the arguments that Gardy never should have put Radke out there in the first place. Then again, the other folks who started for the Twins with at least 10 starts on the year were Scott Baker (in his second partial year as a Major Leaguer, having a brutal season) and Carlos Silva (not his one inexplicable good year). I find it difficult to second guess that decision.

 

It also seems like the context of the ESPN expert votes would be important here. The Twins barely won the division over the Tigers (1 game) and did not have the league's best record. Not the resume of a team expected to dominate the playoffs. The determining factor for most experts, I'd imagine, was the hope that Liriano would be available to give the Twins a dominant 1-2 punch with Santana and a better than even chance of starting each series with a 2-0 advantage. How many do you think would have picked the Twins knowing the rotation would go Santana-Bonser-Injured Radke?

 

tl;dr: I think there are a wide range of valid arguments to dismiss Gardy (though I wouldn't necessarily agree with all of them), but 2006 strikes me as a very odd year to use as an example of playoff underperformance-as most teams would be sunk by injury to their best pitcher and to their most experienced pitcher, an inexplicable defensive miscue by a consensus top 5 defensive CF and a dominant performance by the opponent's All Star ace pitcher.

[glunn]

Okay, I'll stop lurking (from Day 1. Nice site ya'll) to bite on this one.

 

What part of the Twins 2006 playoff performance would you lay on Gardy?

 

There was game 1, where Johan lost a pitching duel with the still-very-effective, all-star selection Barry Zito. Not great, but your team getting shut down by Barry Zito wasn't something you'd lose your job for back in 2006.

 

There was game 2, which Boof Bonser had to start (as I recall, I admittedly may be wrong here) because Liriano's rehab failed... as it turns out, he required Tommy John. I suppose you could blame Gardy for the conditions that led to the surgery, but "too cautious with his pitchers" would be a pretty novel Gardy complaint. Even then, Boof kept the team in the game until Torii made that illfated diving attempt to grab a liner late. Was an attempt at defensive wizardry from one of the most respected defensive CFs of his era, in his prime, Gardy's error?

 

Then there was game 3. Given that he'd been shut down for the bulk of September and had a pretty miserable post-allstar break season, I can see the arguments that Gardy never should have put Radke out there in the first place. Then again, the other folks who started for the Twins with at least 10 starts on the year were Scott Baker (in his second partial year as a Major Leaguer, having a brutal season) and Carlos Silva (not his one inexplicable good year). I find it difficult to second guess that decision.

 

It also seems like the context of the ESPN expert votes would be important here. The Twins barely won the division over the Tigers (1 game) and did not have the league's best record. Not the resume of a team expected to dominate the playoffs. The determining factor for most experts, I'd imagine, was the hope that Liriano would be available to give the Twins a dominant 1-2 punch with Santana and a better than even chance of starting each series with a 2-0 advantage. How many do you think would have picked the Twins knowing the rotation would go Santana-Bonser-Injured Radke?

 

tl;dr: I think there are a wide range of valid arguments to dismiss Gardy (though I wouldn't necessarily agree with all of them), but 2006 strikes me as a very odd year to use as an example of playoff underperformance-as most teams would be sunk by injury to their best pitcher and to their most experienced pitcher, an inexplicable defensive miscue by a consensus top 5 defensive CF and a dominant performance by the opponent's All Star ace pitcher.

 

You make a very persuasive case in your first post, rookie.

 

I am glad that you are no longer lurking. You have a lot to offer.

 

My only complaint is that I was pretty happy until I read this. The trip back to 2006 was well done but also opened old wounds for me.