How did your preseason win prediction go?

[dex8425]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I had two predictions Pre Gray and Correa and Post Gray and Correa.

Pre- They couldn't be worse than 2021 but wasn't sure they were going to be that much better. But five games should have been easily enough to do without Colome  between 78 - 80 wins.

Post - Both guys should be able to add 3 wins. So 84 - 86 wins and maybe a few more by adding at the deadline.

So the ended about where I originally thought minus spending 35 million, trading away a first round pick, Steer (3rd round), Hajjar (2nd round), Povich (3rd round) , CES (4th round) and Gipson-Long (6th round pick).

That seems like a huge price to pay for just adding 5 wins from the horrible previous year. 

Can't really evaluate trades like that. What if Mahle wins the Cy Young next year? Also the $35 million was available from shedding Donaldson's contract.  All the trade deadline deals appeared to be good deals from the Twins perspective at the time of the deals. Sometimes stuff doesn't work out. Heck, Berrios was absolutely terrible this year. 

[Brandon]

I had 87 - 92 wins.  I figured Sano was going to hit close to 40 HRs and 100 RBI this year with Buxton getting to 30/30 HR/SB and Correa having a good season.  Plus the defense was supposed to be vastly improved with 2 platinum glovers on the team in key spots CF and SS.  I always believed Arreaz had a shot at a batting title.  I also figured Killeroff was going to explode on the scene this year.  Polanco would be steady too.  Leaving C, and either LF or 3B as a potential hole with Kepler hitting .250 with 20 HR in RF.

on pitching it seemed like we had a stable that would add up to a 6-9th ranked pitching staff.  That and a top 3 offense = playoff bound. (of course pitching was the big variable for this season as who would step up and who would get injured)....

I also felt like they had good depth to withstand injuries.  Not near as many injuries as they had but some....

[Linus]

I had them at 81 wins and then upped it to 85 wins after signing Correa. I just can’t shake the feeling that this season was a huge opportunity lost. 

[Einheri]

They did worse than I expected.  I predicted a .500 team and that's pretty much what we got.  They only looked good the first two months because the rest of the Division was so terrible.

[Einheri]

38 minutes ago, Linus said:

I had them at 81 wins and then upped it to 85 wins after signing Correa. I just can’t shake the feeling that this season was a huge opportunity lost. 

Even with all of the injuries, if the front office had seriously addressed the bullpen in the off season, they still might have made the post season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I generally don't predict exact win totals but I expected the team to be in the 84-88 win range. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 hours ago, Einheri said:

They did worse than I expected.  I predicted a .500 team and that's pretty much what we got.  They only looked good the first two months because the rest of the Division was so terrible.

This isn't entirely true, though. The Twins were playing much better baseball early in the season. They had some really nice runs against good teams like the Rays, Blue Jays, and others. I mean, look at their opening day OF and the OF they rostered in September. It's pretty easy to spot the biggest reason why they stopped playing good baseball.

(I'm not letting the front office off the hook for that opening day roster, they made some huge mistakes, but injuries are what ultimately caused this team to spiral)

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Can't really evaluate trades like that. What if Mahle wins the Cy Young next year? Also the $35 million was available from shedding Donaldson's contract.  All the trade deadline deals appeared to be good deals from the Twins perspective at the time of the deals. Sometimes stuff doesn't work out. Heck, Berrios was absolutely terrible this year. 

So the twins traded Garver (3.3) and Donaldson (23) and got back Sanchez (9), Urshela (6.5) and got Gray (12) and we are still talking about the only reason the Twins could afford Correa was trading away Donaldson?

If the Twins didn't trade Donaldson they could still of afforded Correa, maybe they couldn't have taken on Gray's salary, but people keep saying things that just aren't true and claiming they are facts.

Yes, when you trade for players in the last two years of a contract you can looks at the trade that way, sure maybe Gray and Mahle are great next year and the Twins go on to do good things, but both of those trades count against 2022.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Hard question for me to answer since I did predict 78-84 before Correa was acquired and then switched to 88-74 (I think). Frankly, this year was about what i expected. 

[DocBauer]

Do I tend to be an optimist? Yes. Was I happy with all the moves made...and not made...to build the opening day roster? Absolutely not. I was OK with Sanchez as the 2nd catcher for 1yr? Yes. Did I accept Garlick as the "offensive" RH OF instead of the upgrade I've been yelling for? Not really, but I could live with him. But I was very disappointed in not only moving Rogers...not going to rehash the trade again...but they didn't add another quality RH to ADD while wanting to keeping Rogers. (In his role, not the 100% closer). I was HUGELY confused they didn't take advantage of the FA SP market, even if they didn't sign Strotman...my preference...or ANYONE other than Bundy. And Bundy would have been fine as a secondary signing, but he AND Archer was just WAY TOO LITTLE.

BUT, Gray and Correa and the bulk of the team, some young talent I expected to take steps forward or at least contribute, I saw a good offense, and an OK staff that really just needed a couple young arms to help out, and I predicted about 86-88 wins and a shot to challenge the Dirty Sox for 1st. Decent health...cough-cough...and some of that young talent really stepping forward, (Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda, Winder, Alcala, etc), and I thought they could jump to 92-92 wins. Or, an improvement of another 6 wins.

My prediction looked pretty sound for the first couple of months. Even when they began to slip around July, I still saw hope with a couple guys getting healthy, some help coming from the trade deadline, and thought we'd be OK and start to "ramp up" again come August. My goodness, we were still tied for 1st to open September even with all the injuries and AAA players filling out the roster!

Not sure I can remember all the wheels coming off in a season so dramatically and suddenly as this one!

Whether it be for the sake of solace or perspective or simple conversation sake, I utterly dismiss the notion of Vegas predicting the Twins at around .500 and that's how it ended it. No matter any prediction, this team looked pretty good the first few months, even with some warts. Projections changed for just about anyone and everyone at that point. I have no idea what Vegas predicted for the Giants in 2021, but I doubt it was 100 wins, much less 107. So predictions are just that. Things change. Things happen.

The 2022 Twins were not built as well as they could have been, or should have been. Period. But they were still better and more talented to be better than they ended this season had they been remotely healthy. And I don't think my predictions were out of line based on what we saw those first few months. Better health will be a HUGE factor in 2023. But not skimping or ignoring the margins are important to reach that 90+ win potential and be legitimately competitive. 

 

[dex8425]

On 10/6/2022 at 4:24 PM, Brandon said:

I had 87 - 92 wins.  I figured Sano was going to hit close to 40 HRs and 100 RBI this year with Buxton getting to 30/30 HR/SB and Correa having a good season.  Plus the defense was supposed to be vastly improved with 2 platinum glovers on the team in key spots CF and SS.  I always believed Arreaz had a shot at a batting title.  I also figured Killeroff was going to explode on the scene this year.  Polanco would be steady too.  Leaving C, and either LF or 3B as a potential hole with Kepler hitting .250 with 20 HR in RF.

on pitching it seemed like we had a stable that would add up to a 6-9th ranked pitching staff.  That and a top 3 offense = playoff bound. (of course pitching was the big variable for this season as who would step up and who would get injured)....

I also felt like they had good depth to withstand injuries.  Not near as many injuries as they had but some....

Yeah, Sano looked really fit and ready in Spring training too. That seems like years ago.