How Can Rocco Baldelli Regain Twins Fans Favor?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over the course of the past few seasons, plenty has been made of the struggles plaguing the Minnesota Twins. While the product on the field has failed, there’s also been plenty of finger-pointing at those that control it. When it comes to the manager, what do fans need to see?

Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli took over as manager for the Minnesota Twins prior to the 2019 season. He replaced Hall of Fame player, Paul Molitor. Although Molitor was seen favorably in his time on the field, he was more of a figurehead manager, celebrated for his own accolades, than those accomplished from the dugout. Molitor seemed to be on the hot seat following a 103-loss campaign in 2016, but the 85-win season brought him Manager of the Year honors and spared him another season under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

Wanting to bring in their own manager and distance themselves from the Terry Ryan regime, Falvey and Levine cast a wide net and ultimately landed on Baldelli. A former top prospect with a solid career, this is Baldelli’s first managing gig. He came highly respected from the forward-thinking, and analytically driven, Tampa Bay Rays organization.

In year one (2019), Baldelli was praised mightily as he orchestrated one of the most successful regular seasons in franchise history. The Bomba Squad invigorated the fanbase, and a club led by Nelson Cruz launched the most home runs by any team over a single season in Major League Baseball history.

2020 is hard to quantify given the truncated nature of the pandemic-influenced season, and we know how the past two years have gone. After what can be categorized as a wildly successful beginning, Baldelli’s allure with fans has hit the skids. Is that largely due to a reflection of what his team has done lately, more of a response to what he’s brought to the table as a whole, or something in between?

If there are two chief complaints for the Twins manager, I’d likely boil them down to pitching management and lack of ultimate success.

Pitching Management
The first relates directly to starting pitchers and bullpen usage. Over the course of recent seasons, it’s become a major complaint from the fanbase that Baldelli pulls his starters too soon. To date in 2022, the Twins 4.8 innings per start is tied for 28th across Major League Baseball. That average is higher than only the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays. That’s notable as the former is doing so by circumstance, while the latter is doing so by choice.

The league average innings per start is 5.2, which is just above Minnesota’s tally. As discussed earlier this year, short starts aren’t simply a Twins thing, and they really aren’t a Baldelli thing either. Baseball has trended toward pulling pitchers earlier as hitters have become so much more advanced, and there are so few truly elite arms. A team like Tampa Bay has supplemented that reality with strong tactics and bullpen help, while the teams who rely most on their starters such as the Astros, Guardians, and Phillies have arms like Justin Verlander, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Nola.

Across baseball in 2022, there was an average of 32.2 pitchers used in 2023. That’s the second highest number in the history of the sport, trailing only the 34.4 used last season. What has to happen for Baldelli to allow starters a longer leash is two-fold. Minnesota must produce more runs than they did in 2022, and the starting pitchers have to be better. Expecting the likes of Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to give five or more innings on a routine basis isn’t logical. While Baldelli has a say in player acquisition, he’s also at the mercy of the team provided to him. Implore the front office to better when it comes to acquisitions on the front end (or the bullpen if following the Rays model) and the results should follow.

Win When it Counts
While it’s not the fault of this current Twins club that the franchise totes an 0-18 record in the postseason currently, it is at the forefront of fans’ minds. The reality is that no matter how many division titles the Twins have won, and they’ve gone .500 in that regard under Baldelli, they’ve also bowed out without even a playoff victory while he’s been in charge.

It’s certainly not easy to win in October, especially if you’re getting paired up against a juggernaut like New York or Houston. However, there’s no reason why a team winning 101 games should bow out with a whimper, or why you can’t grab a victory at home in a short series.

Twins fans want to see the regular season translate into playoff success. With 30 teams, and only one winning their final tilt, it’s hard to suggest World Series or bust as an expectation, but doing something of note beyond the 162-game calendar would go a long way.

Knowing 2023 is an integral point for Minnesota and Baldelli, what are you hoping for in a change of pace? If you support what Rocco has brought to the table, why? If you need to see better, what could change your opinion?

 

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[Captain18s]

How about a steal, a bunt, or a hit and run to create some runs and excitement instead of waiting for the 5 run homer every night. I also do not think the team is sound fundamentally. These guys have been playing baseball for over 20 years. No excuse for such lack of base running skills and fielding mistakes. Watch the good teams.

[Linus]

It doesn’t matter. Rocco is doing exactly what Falvine wants him to do.  They are a package deal so get ready for more of the same until we have a different front office. 

[mikelink45]

Talk to Tom Kelly about fundamentals.  Talk to Molitor about running. Talk to Gardy about fan relations.  Stop telling us the team really did well, despite losing - we all have eyes.  Stop sticking with RP when they prove they are not good - Colombe, Pagan, Lopez...Start sticking with SP when they are going well. If the give up a hit in their last inning it does not mean they are done.  

[Mark G]

What can be said that hasn't been said already, I guess?  As Ted points out, Rocco was picked from Tampa for his knowledge of, and use of all of their analytics that made them successful and somewhat groundbreaking.  He brought that here, and has stuck with it through thick and thin.  Now it is easy to use any philosophy when your team hits 307 home runs, or plays a 60 game season and barely hangs on to the end of it.  But 162 game seasons without the home runs is the challenge all managers will face at one time or another, and we have all seen how those years have gone as well.  Ted points out, for example, that all teams have gone to shorter starts to one degree or another, but to do that you need a BP that is somewhat able to handle the load.  We didn't have that, and yet we didn't adjust over time.  Ryan the 3rd time through the order, or Duffy the first time through the order?  Gray or Ober the 3rd time through, or Pagan the first time through?  And so on, and so on.  It was also confusing as to the "schedule" for scheduled days off for the front line players.  Starters pitched less and the pen pitched more.  Front line players played less and the utility guys played more.  When your pen isn't strong enough to pull that load, and your bench isn't better than what we had for much of the season, due to injuries and other factors, maybe it is time to lean on your starters, both on the mound and on the field.  Yet, we never did adjust to the players we had in the clubhouse as the injuries took their toll.  We never did perform fundamentals well, and never used small ball to our advantage when it was called for.  In other words, we never used the whole tool box that was at our disposal.  It was more important to stick to the "plan".  The results the first two years were from players who hit a lot of home runs.  Take that away, and we are, what, about 20 or so games under .500 the last two years?  You have to adjust or die in this game, and I just do not see Rocco adjusting.  It is the rest of us who are told we have to adjust to the way the game is played today.  This extremely humble observer is saying no thanks.  Not if this is going to be the result.  I don't want to wait for the 3 run homer every game.  Use the whole tool box and lean on your studs.  Play a little small ball while your computer spits out more stats.  Give us something to watch.   

[MABB1959]

How about an above average stable line-up.  We as fans need to know our team good or bad.  Right now it is horrible and barely a recognizable name.  Seems we get a good player or pitcher they are gone as quickly as we get them.  Really the only players to get excited for this year were Arraz, Buxton and Correa.  Arraz is so stable an likeable, Buxton is very likeable and so exciting when on the field and at bat.  He was barely in the field (DH'd more games than I like) and we as fans didn't get a chance to know Correa and probably didn't get as excited because his time is most likely short lived.  Baldelli changes the line-up based on stats.  He will "rest" a hot player just based on the opposing teams pitcher.  There is no accountability either.  He runs sub-par players out all the time.  I hate to pick on Kepler but he probably should have been a bench player and they should have found a right fielder that can hit as well as field.  Plus he is just a little boring doesn't seem to have the fire he should.  We are searching but unwilling to pay pitchers.  We let Berrios go without a blink of an eye without replacing with a better or even an equal replacement.  Yes he struggled but he has the fire most fans like to see.  

They are not very transparent or even in the fight for the top players.  My gut feeling is no players in the prime of their career want to come here.  Why would you want to go to a team that hasn't won a playoff game in 18 tries.  Also it doesn't take a baseball genius to see a team that seems to look for re-treads instead of real MLB quality players.

He also needs to look at his coaching and medical staff.  Hard to get players from AAA to the MLB.  As for injuries hard to blame him but they obviously don't have a good medical staff or trainers.  Too many muscle strains and pains for what should be highly athletic players.  The rehab process does not seem very good either.

 

 

[Jeff D.]

Completely uninspiring manager! I've been a fan since the start of the Twins. I love the Twins and will support, but this is the worst manager I have seen in the dugout. Either a complete incompetent mind or a complete puppet to the top guys..........either, he was a better player.

Twins Geezer ..... out!

[Whitey333]

I agree with the above 2 comments.   Baldelli doesn't know how to manage.  If they took away his computer he'd be totally lost.  Pitching changes are a joke.  There's no in game management at all because it might disrupt his game plan.  The team lacks fundamentals, plays with very little passion or sense of urgency.  There hasn't been much fire in this team for nearly two years now.  The team is rudderless with no direction.  Although they can't be blamed for the 18 straight playoff losses it is incorrect to imply they had nothing to do with it.  They have accounted for the past 6 of those I believe.  In short, Baldelli is a hand picked puppet of the FO.  Expect more of the same while they are joined at the hips.

[RJA]

I am not a Baldelli fan, and as others have commented, he is so wedded to certain theories--like having starting pitchers only go through the order twice, and sticking with certain relief pitchers--that he has become inflexible in his management style.  To paraphrase Emerson "consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."  I am not against analytics.  They should play a big role, but sometimes you have to rely upon your feel for the game as well.  I don't think he does that enough.  He has the attributes this FO has--glib, young, PR skills, knowledge of analytics--so he fits with them well.  He will be here as long as our FO is unless ownership tells the FO that he has to go or they do.  In that case, we know who will go.   But even then, the FO will simply hire another person just like him.  So, let's just assume he is here, build a rock solid bullpen, add an excellent left handed (preferably) pitcher, an excellent defensive catcher, and a good shortstop, and pray that the injury problem is not with us next year.   Time to plan for next year as none of us can control anything that happens in the organization and the hot stove season is about to begin.  

[dberthia]

• Put your best players in the lineup every day until they tell you they need a break. Buxton can be an exception here since he's made of glass.
• Let's see some bunting, stealing, hit & run plays.
• If your starting pitcher is kicking-ass, leave him in until he tires. Forget the spreadsheets. If he's going longer than you're comfortable with, have someone warmed and ready to go so you CAN make a move quickly AFTER he demonstrates he's gassed.
• Stop trotting failures like Emilio Pagan onto the field in high leverage situations when they've proven time and time again they will burn you.
• Let's see more of the passion you displayed a couple of times this year when arguing with the umpires.
• For God's sake, don't ever put Royce Lewis in center field again.

[TwinsDr2021]

The question - How Can Rocco Baldelli Regain Twins Fans Favor?

Well the only way to regain favor with this fan is walk away. I haven't like his managing style since like day 14 of his first year and when you see the guy just doesn't have it you have to make a change. I was also calling for Zimmer's job for the last few years because it was obvious the team could no longer win with him and I think it is obvious the Twins can't/won't win with Rocco.

[rv78]

Maybe the White Sox will buy him away from the Twins. I'd like that.

[Kipp35]

Resign.

[Dennesey55347]

This question was an unintentional meatball. Tendency is to discuss ways he can change or improve. Rocco's style has multiple layers with enough "questionables" for me to want him removed entirely -along with key decision-makers. This team has zero promising bankable elements going into next year. Got to have at least 2 RBI machines with a pitching staff like ours to compete and we have nothing close Many other issues already discussed in the thread. 2023 is going to look similar at best.

[roger]

He can regain my trust by resigning.

 

[Karbo]

On a personal level I like Rocco. That said, he doesn't belong in the dugout managing a MLB team. He seems to lack leadership qualities, He can't/won't think outside the Stat lines, He makes a lot of week excuses instead of holding people accountable, and there seems to be inclination to stress fundamentals. I'm sure much of this is the fault of the FO, but Rocco still has to take responsibilty. 

[LastOnePicked]

Out of all the organizational failures over the last few years, it's maybe Rocco's performance the bothers me the most. He strikes me as entirely inept as a manager. His players never quite seem to have their heads in the game, and neither really does he. He screws up something as simple as mound visits and when he does decide to show emotion, as in the case of the blocked-plate review call vs. Toronto, he ends up screaming and cursing at the umpire who actually had made the call on the field in our favor.

The Twins just do not rise up to meet late-inning, late-season or postseason challenges under his management. And rather than deal with issues head-on, he endlessly recycles excuses about "playing hard" and "things not going our way." He does not convey a sense of leadership.

I've seen enough of him in this role. He's a decent human being, and seems like he'd be a great person to know. But he is a terrible MLB manager, in that if he doesn't have Nelson Cruz leading the clubhouse, even his regular-season teams look lost, shaken and beaten and the plate, on the mound and in the field. To answer your question, there's nothing he can do at this point - he is what he is. It is time to move on.

[MGM4706]

Stop looking at those Cyber Metric Cards in the dugout and watch the game!! Many time the guys in the booth would say "So and so just doesn't have it today" when Rocco brought in a pen guy. But Rocco would leave him in for two more walks, a hit batsman and a double!! Have a live feed from Smalley or Hawkins!! Have a month of Spring training in how to play an outfield wall  None of young outfielders have a clue. Get a new 3rd base coach! Teach Buxton how to steal if he ever comes back. #1 Get an Ace!! No team in playoffs does not have an Ace!

[cHawk]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

Maybe the White Sox will buy him away from the Twins. I'd like that.

It would be an upgrade from what they (the Sox) currently have

[Mark G]

2 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Stop looking at those Cyber Metric Cards in the dugout and watch the game!! Many time the guys in the booth would say "So and so just doesn't have it today" when Rocco brought in a pen guy. But Rocco would leave him in for two more walks, a hit batsman and a double!! Have a live feed from Smalley or Hawkins!! Have a month of Spring training in how to play an outfield wall  None of young outfielders have a clue. Get a new 3rd base coach! Teach Buxton how to steal if he ever comes back. #1 Get an Ace!! No team in playoffs does not have an Ace!

"Stop looking at those Cyber Metric Cards in the dugout and watch the game!!"

Agreed!!  Some time back I put in a post that said remember the days when the manager would be on the top step of the dugout watching intently each pitch and each play?  Me too.  Remember the days when the manager would sit behind the protective screen with his coaches and study the stat sheets?  Yea, me neither.  

And I am the one who has to adjust.    

[Fire Dan Gladden]

All the hostility...

The Coach/Manager's role is exactly the same regardless of the sport or city.  Receive the accolades when your team wins, receive the heat when your team loses.

Good managers can have bad years, bad managers can have good years.  So many factors that we, the "loving public", are not privy to factor in to all the decisions.  Player is hungover and not ready to pitch.  Player is going through a divorce and not mentally ready.  Player's kid is getting bullied in school, needs time to deal with it.  Every decision is not black and white.  We, as the fans, see none of this.  The media will not report this.

By all accounts, Rocco is generally liked by his players.  He follows the agenda set by the upper brass.  There were many hurdles the Twins had to fight this year:  injuries, expectations that were probably too high, more heartbreaking losses than necessary.

Is Rocco a good manager?  I don't know.  But he isn't going anywhere, so settle in.

[PDX Twin]

Rocco would be a great bench coach, using his analytics to help inform the manager, who makes the decisions taking that into account along with the human and tactical elements. He could be totally empathetic with the players. Just don't let him make the decisions.

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, Mark G said:

"Stop looking at those Cyber Metric Cards in the dugout and watch the game!!"

Agreed!!  Some time back I put in a post that said remember the days when the manager would be on the top step of the dugout watching intently each pitch and each play?  Me too.  Remember the days when the manager would sit behind the protective screen with his coaches and study the stat sheets?  Yea, me neither.  

And I am the one who has to adjust.    

I love how people pretend that Earl Weaver & Gene Mauch never existed. (Mauch once handed the ump a lineup card with changes in it that had a player on it that had already been subbed out and another at a different position. When challenged, his response was "oh, sorry! that's the lineup I had for if we were DOWN by this point in the game." But no, no manager ever used analytics until Rocco ruined the game with it.)

There is a chunk of the fanbase (a noisy one, but it's unclear how large they are?) for whom Rocco can do no right. If he wins, it will be only through the talent of the players, possibly in spite of the manager. If he loses, he will bear the responsibility for the woes of the team (mostly) whom would all perform better if only they played a different style of baseball, usually vaguely defined as a period of baseball history hazily remembered as "better" by the fan in question. (generally some period between 1961 and 1992 for Twins fans) It's doubtful that there is anything Rocco can do to win over most of those fans.

there's another chunk who is dissatisfied with Rocco because the team has lost the last two years, in seasons where there were expectations that they would be better. In 2021, we were expected to be a team that could contend and they collapsed early under poor bullpen performances followed by a litany of injuries until some players were sold off. This season was supposed to be a re-load year rather than a rebuild, but disappointment struck again when after a promising start, the team collapsed under another massive stream of injuries. (part and parcel of that disappointment is their record in 1-run games, where they sit for the year at 20-28. YMMV on whether that makes this team and the manager flawed in some internal way that makes them not "clutch" or just unlucky, but there's no question the poor results in 1-run games and their results against their division rival in Cleveland raises that disappointment and frustration level) A lot of those people would probably be won back if the team won. If the team was relatively healthy and was battling for the division all year, a lot of the complaints about the manager would vanish in the wind. 

I'm generally of the opinion that most managers in baseball are overrated in their actual impact on the game at this point. There are very few that are really terrible, but also very few that are superior and consistently make better in-game decisions, lineup choices, etc in ways that increase the team's ability to win more than the average manager. Rocco seems about middle of the pack to me, and the kinds of things he does that bother me are probably the same things that bother other fans about their manager and are more noticeable to us because we watch the team every day. (how impactful they actually are is another question; having Tommy Watkins as 3B coach has driven me batty this year, but did he actually lose us 6-8 games or is that more in my head because I'm remembering a particularly egregious mistake and convincing myself that it cost us the game and there were at least 5 more like it?)

I think the asks for the Twins to play better "fundamental" baseball as a means of Rocco winning them back are a bit disingenuous, because I think "fundamental" gets conflated with "small ball". Would cleaning up the baserunning mistakes and errors be enough if the team didn't also start bunting more (very unlikely to happen) and stealing more bases (possible depending on the roster, but still unlikely to turn us into a running team) and things like that? I suspect not, but you can have great fundamentals without playing small ball.

[Otaknam]

Done with Baldelli! I agree with other posts that Rocco’s dogmatic inflexible analytics approach has to be discarded from time to time in favor of using his intuition. His refusal to let the SP go past five innings is only the most obvious example. That works if your bullpen is solid but no one will argue that was the case this year. When starters are removed after five solid innings and 75 pitches to bring in a guy like Pagan, the only conclusion is that Rocco has no instincts for managing. Also his inflexibility on giving players days off is puzzling. Apparently those are scheduled many days in advance. Players do needs days off but there are times when the hottest hitter is on the bench because it was scheduled a week ago. Let him keep taking for a few more games. There were also times when both Correa and Buxton were benched while the team was struggling. How does that make sense? I just see Rocco managing by computer algorithm instead of with the instincts you expect from a competent manager.

[weitz41]

Until the FO and Rocco (they are a package deal) start using analytics as a guide instead of a one way street thru 9 innings of baseball. I don't see anyone changing their opinion of them.

Just an example:

8 of the top 9 teams in innings pitched by starters are in the playoffs. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say those 8 teams use analytics as well. 

[DFlow]

Rocco has been at the mercy of the team of the team given to him. There is some running and semantics you can claim but that's only going to manufacture a win or two over the course of the year. Falvine needs to get serious about pitching if we want to win playoff series.

A major factor you see on good teams is that they are able to develop there own #3-5 starters meaning they can use payroll to acquire more higher end pitching. We currently have Mahle, Ryan, and a quality #5 starter who will all be pre-FA next year which is finally an exciting output. Here is what we have next year for the roation:

#1 - Open, we have no ace

#2- Sonny Gray - a completely fine #2 pitcher

#3- Tyler Mahle - when healthy, probably a #2 pitcher that will be pitching on the third game of a playoff series

#4- Joe Ryan - if Joe Ryan is your #4 starter, your rotation is looking healthy. A guy you can project to be a playoff starter during a 7 game series

#5- Bailey Ober/Josh Winder/ Louie Varland/Kenta - Ober has the most upside and would be a well above average #5 starter. Good chance Kenta is slowly built up in the bullpen (long guy) and flexed later in the year to start if needed.

I typed this out as we need to talk about actual playoff strategy from the rotation. If every guy on this current rotation is asked to be pushed up a playoff game slot (which has happened to Twins teams for the past 12 years), they are likely worse or equal to the opposing pitcher. Focusing on someone like Rodon in FA (with the Correa money) will make a playoff series pitching matchups swing in our favor.

#1-Rodon- equal or better than the majority of aces

#2- Gray is probably equal to the other #2 pitchers

#3- Mahle should beat most #3 pitchers

#4- Ryan should beat or at least be equal to other #4 pitchers

Much of the offensive side of the ball will be figured out in my opinion. It really will come down to the FA strategy on the pitching side that will determine if this team will ever do something in October. It's all about matchups, and we can't ask guys who has a nice year or who are Randy Dobnak to go against guys like Gerrit Cole in a playoff series. We have great upcoming depth in pitching on the backend, which should open up funds for front line guys. 

 

 

 

[Mark G]

30 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I love how people pretend that Earl Weaver & Gene Mauch never existed. (Mauch once handed the ump a lineup card with changes in it that had a player on it that had already been subbed out and another at a different position. When challenged, his response was "oh, sorry! that's the lineup I had for if we were DOWN by this point in the game." But no, no manager ever used analytics until Rocco ruined the game with it.)

There is a chunk of the fanbase (a noisy one, but it's unclear how large they are?) for whom Rocco can do no right. If he wins, it will be only through the talent of the players, possibly in spite of the manager. If he loses, he will bear the responsibility for the woes of the team (mostly) whom would all perform better if only they played a different style of baseball, usually vaguely defined as a period of baseball history hazily remembered as "better" by the fan in question. (generally some period between 1961 and 1992 for Twins fans) It's doubtful that there is anything Rocco can do to win over most of those fans.

there's another chunk who is dissatisfied with Rocco because the team has lost the last two years, in seasons where there were expectations that they would be better. In 2021, we were expected to be a team that could contend and they collapsed early under poor bullpen performances followed by a litany of injuries until some players were sold off. This season was supposed to be a re-load year rather than a rebuild, but disappointment struck again when after a promising start, the team collapsed under another massive stream of injuries. (part and parcel of that disappointment is their record in 1-run games, where they sit for the year at 20-28. YMMV on whether that makes this team and the manager flawed in some internal way that makes them not "clutch" or just unlucky, but there's no question the poor results in 1-run games and their results against their division rival in Cleveland raises that disappointment and frustration level) A lot of those people would probably be won back if the team won. If the team was relatively healthy and was battling for the division all year, a lot of the complaints about the manager would vanish in the wind. 

I'm generally of the opinion that most managers in baseball are overrated in their actual impact on the game at this point. There are very few that are really terrible, but also very few that are superior and consistently make better in-game decisions, lineup choices, etc in ways that increase the team's ability to win more than the average manager. Rocco seems about middle of the pack to me, and the kinds of things he does that bother me are probably the same things that bother other fans about their manager and are more noticeable to us because we watch the team every day. (how impactful they actually are is another question; having Tommy Watkins as 3B coach has driven me batty this year, but did he actually lose us 6-8 games or is that more in my head because I'm remembering a particularly egregious mistake and convincing myself that it cost us the game and there were at least 5 more like it?)

I think the asks for the Twins to play better "fundamental" baseball as a means of Rocco winning them back are a bit disingenuous, because I think "fundamental" gets conflated with "small ball". Would cleaning up the baserunning mistakes and errors be enough if the team didn't also start bunting more (very unlikely to happen) and stealing more bases (possible depending on the roster, but still unlikely to turn us into a running team) and things like that? I suspect not, but you can have great fundamentals without playing small ball.

I am not sure if this will be considered going off topic or not, because it is more general, but I couldn't disagree with you more about one point.  The manager of a baseball team has as much or more control over games than most football coaches.  He makes decisions on virtually every pitch, much less who plays, who plays where, where they hit in the lineup, when changes are made, shifts.......I could go on for a while.  Even if the decision is to let someone else make the decision (allowing a catcher to call pitches, giving the green light to runners and letting them decide, etc.) the decisions are his.  He will tell a coach how aggressive to be or how careful.  He sends the signs to the field through his coaches, and again, I could go on.  How you can believe that the manager, of any team, doesn't have the most impact is beyond this extremely humble observer's mind set, but you are certainly entitled to believe it.  

And it is not just the one run games folks are concerned about.  The team scored 3 runs or less in approx 47% of the games this year.  That is where small ball comes in; manufacturing a run now and then or, in our case, not manufacturing one, has made a difference in way too many games.  And I know I am older and think more old school, but fundamentals are knowing how to bunt, run the bases, throw to the right base under each circumstance, hit and run, steal..........some people refer to it as small ball.  How would I know if a team has good fundamentals if they don't do so much of the above because the analytics say not to?  I can only speak for this extremely humble observer, but I have not seen these fundamentals during this tenure.  

[TwinsDr2021]

52 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I love how people pretend that Earl Weaver & Gene Mauch never existed. (Mauch once handed the ump a lineup card with changes in it that had a player on it that had already been subbed out and another at a different position. When challenged, his response was "oh, sorry! that's the lineup I had for if we were DOWN by this point in the game." But no, no manager ever used analytics until Rocco ruined the game with it.)

There is a chunk of the fanbase (a noisy one, but it's unclear how large they are?) for whom Rocco can do no right. If he wins, it will be only through the talent of the players, possibly in spite of the manager. If he loses, he will bear the responsibility for the woes of the team (mostly) whom would all perform better if only they played a different style of baseball, usually vaguely defined as a period of baseball history hazily remembered as "better" by the fan in question. (generally some period between 1961 and 1992 for Twins fans) It's doubtful that there is anything Rocco can do to win over most of those fans.

there's another chunk who is dissatisfied with Rocco because the team has lost the last two years, in seasons where there were expectations that they would be better. In 2021, we were expected to be a team that could contend and they collapsed early under poor bullpen performances followed by a litany of injuries until some players were sold off. This season was supposed to be a re-load year rather than a rebuild, but disappointment struck again when after a promising start, the team collapsed under another massive stream of injuries. (part and parcel of that disappointment is their record in 1-run games, where they sit for the year at 20-28. YMMV on whether that makes this team and the manager flawed in some internal way that makes them not "clutch" or just unlucky, but there's no question the poor results in 1-run games and their results against their division rival in Cleveland raises that disappointment and frustration level) A lot of those people would probably be won back if the team won. If the team was relatively healthy and was battling for the division all year, a lot of the complaints about the manager would vanish in the wind. 

I'm generally of the opinion that most managers in baseball are overrated in their actual impact on the game at this point. There are very few that are really terrible, but also very few that are superior and consistently make better in-game decisions, lineup choices, etc in ways that increase the team's ability to win more than the average manager. Rocco seems about middle of the pack to me, and the kinds of things he does that bother me are probably the same things that bother other fans about their manager and are more noticeable to us because we watch the team every day. (how impactful they actually are is another question; having Tommy Watkins as 3B coach has driven me batty this year, but did he actually lose us 6-8 games or is that more in my head because I'm remembering a particularly egregious mistake and convincing myself that it cost us the game and there were at least 5 more like it?)

I think the asks for the Twins to play better "fundamental" baseball as a means of Rocco winning them back are a bit disingenuous, because I think "fundamental" gets conflated with "small ball". Would cleaning up the baserunning mistakes and errors be enough if the team didn't also start bunting more (very unlikely to happen) and stealing more bases (possible depending on the roster, but still unlikely to turn us into a running team) and things like that? I suspect not, but you can have great fundamentals without playing small ball.

I haven't seen one person on this site or in daily life that say/type don't use analytics. Also haven't seen anybody say Rocco has ruined the game. You are generalizing the fans that are unhappy with the results for the last few years with broad sweeping stereotypes.  Which is not dis-similar from those that say the Twins are doing exactly what other teams are doing while leaving out the facts that the Twins are at the far end of the spectrum of the all teams.

To be honest I don't think anybody is really asking the Twins to play a different style of baseball, I believe what people are asking to incorporate things when situation calls for it. When your team is struggling with its offense try to manufacturer a run now and then or instead of always looking for the big inning try to steal a run now and then.

Also claiming 2021 was some sort of rebuilding year is just false, and the Twins basically spending more than they ever have and trading prospects away in 2022 means it also wasn't a rebuilding year but this has more to do with the FO than the manager.

As for fundamental baseball, IMO that has more to do with hitting the cutoff, throwing to the correct base, running the bases, and generally not looking like a little league team in the field and bases. Sure being able to actually bunt a ball, execute a hit and run, or a sacrifice fly could be considered small ball but sometimes it is called for in a close game.

[Mark G]

6 minutes ago, DFlow said:

Rocco has been at the mercy of the team of the team given to him. There is some running and semantics you can claim but that's only going to manufacture a win or two over the course of the year. Falvine needs to get serious about pitching if we want to win playoff series.

A major factor you see on good teams is that they are able to develop there own #3-5 starters meaning they can use payroll to acquire more higher end pitching. We currently have Mahle, Ryan, and a quality #5 starter who will all be pre-FA next year which is finally an exciting output. Here is what we have next year for the roation:

#1 - Open, we have no ace

#2- Sonny Gray - a completely fine #2 pitcher

#3- Tyler Mahle - when healthy, probably a #2 pitcher that will be pitching on the third game of a playoff series

#4- Joe Ryan - if Joe Ryan is your #4 starter, your rotation is looking healthy. A guy you can project to be a playoff starter during a 7 game series

#5- Bailey Ober/Josh Winder/ Louie Varland/Kenta - Ober has the most upside and would be a well above average #5 starter. Good chance Kenta is slowly built up in the bullpen (long guy) and flexed later in the year to start if needed.

I typed this out as we need to talk about actual playoff strategy from the rotation. If every guy on this current rotation is asked to be pushed up a playoff game slot (which has happened to Twins teams for the past 12 years), they are likely worse or equal to the opposing pitcher. Focusing on someone like Rodon in FA (with the Correa money) will make a playoff series pitching matchups swing in our favor.

#1-Rodon- equal or better than the majority of aces

#2- Gray is probably equal to the other #2 pitchers

#3- Mahle should beat most #3 pitchers

#4- Ryan should beat or at least be equal to other #4 pitchers

Much of the offensive side of the ball will be figured out in my opinion. It really will come down to the FA strategy on the pitching side that will determine if this team will ever do something in October. It's all about matchups, and we can't ask guys who has a nice year or who are Randy Dobnak to go against guys like Gerrit Cole in a playoff series. We have great upcoming depth in pitching on the backend, which should open up funds for front line guys. 

 

 

 

I can't argue with a whole lot of the above, but what happens when their numbers 1, 2 and maybe even 3 pitch 6 or 7 innings (or more?) and ours pitch 5, or 5 1/3, or 5 2/3?  Then it comes down to bullpen depth.  Can we match that as well?  Will we continue to stick with the 3rd and 4th times through the lineup plan, or will we let our best pitchers stay on the mound?  Would the plan change just because it is a playoff game?  My gut tells me that if you won't let a guy try for his no hitter because of a pitch count, you won't change for anything.  So we need to get a BP of studs or what we see is what we get.  

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, DFlow said:

Rocco has been at the mercy of the team of the team given to him. There is some running and semantics you can claim but that's only going to manufacture a win or two over the course of the year. Falvine needs to get serious about pitching if we want to win playoff series.

A major factor you see on good teams is that they are able to develop there own #3-5 starters meaning they can use payroll to acquire more higher end pitching. We currently have Mahle, Ryan, and a quality #5 starter who will all be pre-FA next year which is finally an exciting output. Here is what we have next year for the roation:

#1 - Open, we have no ace

#2- Sonny Gray - a completely fine #2 pitcher

#3- Tyler Mahle - when healthy, probably a #2 pitcher that will be pitching on the third game of a playoff series

#4- Joe Ryan - if Joe Ryan is your #4 starter, your rotation is looking healthy. A guy you can project to be a playoff starter during a 7 game series

#5- Bailey Ober/Josh Winder/ Louie Varland/Kenta - Ober has the most upside and would be a well above average #5 starter. Good chance Kenta is slowly built up in the bullpen (long guy) and flexed later in the year to start if needed.

I typed this out as we need to talk about actual playoff strategy from the rotation. If every guy on this current rotation is asked to be pushed up a playoff game slot (which has happened to Twins teams for the past 12 years), they are likely worse or equal to the opposing pitcher. Focusing on someone like Rodon in FA (with the Correa money) will make a playoff series pitching matchups swing in our favor.

#1-Rodon- equal or better than the majority of aces

#2- Gray is probably equal to the other #2 pitchers

#3- Mahle should beat most #3 pitchers

#4- Ryan should beat or at least be equal to other #4 pitchers

Much of the offensive side of the ball will be figured out in my opinion. It really will come down to the FA strategy on the pitching side that will determine if this team will ever do something in October. It's all about matchups, and we can't ask guys who has a nice year or who are Randy Dobnak to go against guys like Gerrit Cole in a playoff series. We have great upcoming depth in pitching on the backend, which should open up funds for front line guys. 

 

 

 

so in this scenario where do 27 year Ober, 26 year old Winder, and 25 year old Varland land in the bullpen back in the minors?

If they Twins signed a Rondon/Bassitt (which I don't think they will) Gray has to be traded. They have to give the Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR a chance it isn't like these are young guys (except for SWR) and if they move them to the pen well that means there is no pitching pipeline and this FO has completely failed at its one job that we were promised. They have to let or teach these guys and Ryan how to pitch deeper in the game and I am not saying into the 8th or 9th (I mean that would be great) but the 6th and 7th. And last night would have been the perfect night to let Ober go out for one more inning, and who cares if he would have gotten shelled it would have been a great lesson.