Cleaning Up the Twins’ 40-Man Roster Will Take Some Work

[Cody Christie]

Injuries have forced the Twins to dig deep into the organization to fill spots on the active roster. Before this winter’s Rule 5 Draft, Minnesota has some housecleaning to do on the 40-man roster.

Image courtesy of Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota has 18 players on the injured list, with 11 players on the 60-day IL. Because of these injuries, the team currently has 50 players on the 40-man roster. Before the team makes any moves this winter, the 40-man roster must be cleaned up. Here are the moves the Twins will need to explore before the offseason begins. 

Heading to Free Agency: Carlos Correa (player option), Gary Sanchez, Sandy Leon, Billy Hamilton, Michael Fulmer, Miguel Sano (club option), Chris Archer (club option), Dylan Bundy (club option) 
Correa’s opt-out will be something fans eagerly watch, but all signs point to him opting out and looking for a significant free agent contract. Minnesota will need catching depth with Sanchez and Leon out of the picture, so the team may look to re-sign one of their veterans. Fulmer is an intriguing option if the club wants to add him to the bullpen mix for 2023. Based on their performances this season, it seems unlikely for the team to bring back Sano, Archer, or Bundy. 
40-Man Roster: Down to 42 with these subtractions

Designate for Assignment: Jake Cave, Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Emilio Pagan (arbitration-eligible), Kyle Garlick, Danny Coulombe, Jhon Romero, Devin Smeltzer, Trevor Megill 
There are some tough decisions in this group and some players many fans don’t want to see again. Cave was optioned off the 40-man roster earlier this season and stayed in the organization, so the Twins may try something similar this winter. Minnesota can attempt to trade Pagan for a low-level prospect, or the team might DFA him without receiving anything in return. Megill is also a tough call to make for the roster. Megill looked good at different points during the 2022 season, and certainly has some really good "stuff," but has struggled recently.
40-Man Roster: Down to 33 with these subtractions

Prospects to Add: Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, Edouard Julien, Misael Urbina
Woods Richardson was added on Sunday before his MLB debut and is part of the team’s long-term pitching plans. Canterino will miss most of the 2023 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. However, he has one of the highest upsides of any prospect in the organization. Julien posted a .931 OPS at Double-A this season and has experience playing multiple defensive positions. According to MLB Pipeline, Urbina is a top-10 prospect in the Twins organization. He struggled in 2021 with a .585 OPS in Fort Myers, and his 2022 season started late because of visa issues. This year, he hit .247/.323/.407 (.730) with 26 extra-base hits in 60 games. Do the Twins still view him as highly as when he signed back in 2018?
40-Man Roster: Up to 37 with these additions
 

The Twins will have room to add a player in the Rule 5 Draft by making these moves. This roster flexibility also allows the team to add other players via free agency when the World Series ends. Will Minnesota keep any of the players mentioned above on the 40-man roster? Has Urbina done enough to earn a 40-man spot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Mike Sixel]

I can't see them DFAing Pagan, alas.

I also see no reason to protect Urbina. What club will keep in the majors all year?

[Kipp35]

I am sure they will put the emphasis on the wrong players, as they always do. And, will ensure they miss out on FA's due to ensuring they extend someone currently under contract to a ridiculous deal, while other clubs are signing pieces to make their clubs better. See last off-season's priorities; Buxton and Bundy before the lockout, while other clubs were making deals.

[Rosterman]

KEEPERS: Duran, Gray, Henriquez, Jax, Maeda, Moran, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Winder, Woods Richardson, Jeffers, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Buxton, Celestino, Kirilloff, Gordon, Larnach, Kepler, Wallner. (22 players)

FREE AGENTS: Bundy, Archer, Fulmer, Leon, Correa, G. Sanchez, Sano, A. Sanchez, B. Hamilton

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE (I Think): Urshela, Pagan, Paddack, Mahle, Alcala, Stashak, Thielbar, Coulombe, Cave, Lopez, Arraez

REPLACEMENT LEVEL: Romero, Megill, Palacios, Garlick, Contreras, C. Hamilton

QUESTIONABLE PROSPECTS: Smeltzer, Sands, Enlow, Balazovic

So, 8 free agents leaving, 6 guys that could easily be replaced thru by others or resigned to minor league contracts, maybe 2 of questionable prospect gone, and 3-6 that could easily not reach an arbitration decision (Coulombe, Stashak, Cave probably, possibly Urshela, Pagan, And Thielbar in limbo).

MINOR LEAGUE CONSIDERATIONS: Helman, Sisk*, Severino*, Canterino*, Julien*, Headrick, Funderburk, Prato, Isola. Javier (free agent), Camargo* (free agent), Probably, at this point, only NEED to keep 3-4 of these fer sure. (*ones I would add)

[beckmt]

I feel they will DFA Pagan (what reason to keep him) I would rather they sign Fullmer (probably about the same money).  IF they want to take a chance sign Mahle and Paddock to extensions, lower the Average value.  Mahle may take it due to the risk he never makes it back for any length of time.  They still need to do roster cleanup, I could also see Celestino being a cut, looking for a better option, since they have Gordon to back up all the outfield positions.  One high value BP piece and one high value starter can replace some the question marks.  They should have the money to pay Correa, since it will be a while until a lot of the players reach arbitration.  Urshala is another question mark, as where does he play, though I think a trade is more likely than a non-tender.  

[DJL44]

Caleb Hamilton should be on your DFA list. Megill is cheap, throws hard and has options. They probably keep him.

[4twinsJA]

Don't see Urbina as a need to add to 40 man. He only hit .250 at low A, and a short season. Can't see someone taking a shot at him or if they did, Urbina having success next year at the MLB level.

[4twinsJA]

What about Lawyerson at AA? After Varland and SWR moved up to AAA, Headrick and Lawyerson were battling to be considered the best pitcher at Wichita. 

[FlyingFinn]

Caleb Hamilton and Stashak can be DFA'd. No need to add Urbina. Keep Megill. I'm thinking maybe we should add Camargo. If he's good defensively, I might do that.

You have to put Paddock on the 40 man but exactly when can you move him back to the 60 day IL?

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

You have to put Paddock on the 40 man but exactly when can you move him back to the 60 day IL?

I think 1st day of spring training.

[Peter Labuza]

Do we know at what point Correa needs to announce as free agent before his club option kicks in? I guess before Rule 5....

[mikelink45]

I have no idea - who do we trade?  Most trades have many many for one that reduces the 40 man.  I do not see Hamilton, Leon, Sanchez coming back and wish that Pagan and Lopez weren't.  But my faith in the FO decisions leaves me questioning which decisions will be made because they love the strong arm - Pagan, Lopez, Megill - which do nothing for me if they do not know how to pitch.  

All of us see Sano and Correa gone, and most want Bundy and Archer gone if we can bring in better (me included).

[Brandon]

I can see the Twins offering a lower cost contract to Pagan or get DFA’d.  maybe a 1 year 2.5 - 3 million maybe compromise with some incentives.  
 

Garlick is currently the RH OF.  He could stay or go.

Smetltzer could stay or go.  
 

Megill could stay or go but I lean more towards stay.  
 

Why Urbana at this point? 
 

That’s all I got for now

[DJL44]

There is another category - will be placed on 60 day DL to start the season. That's Canterino, Paddack and Lewis for sure. That allows them to sign 3 players to minor league contracts with the understanding that they will get converted to major league deals after the start of spring training.

[gman]

The Twins need a start of year shortstop( assuming Correa gone and Lewis still rehabbing) along with a solid backup catcher( preferably left-handed/w good defense). They also will need all the controllable pitchers they can keep their hands on(expected injuries).  Spare replacement level or less outfielders and middle infielders not so much, but a good backup outfielder won't hurt either. 

[DJL44]

What do they need to add to the roster this offseason? A shortstop, a catcher, a starting pitcher and a couple relievers.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I can see the Twins offering a lower cost contract to Pagan or get DFA’d.  maybe a 1 year 2.5 - 3 million maybe compromise with some incentives.  
 

Garlick is currently the RH OF.  He could stay or go.

Smetltzer could stay or go.  
 

Megill could stay or go but I lean more towards stay.  
 

Why Urbana at this point? 
 

That’s all I got for now

You all are saying Pagán should be DFAed, technically it is non-tendered. The same with Cave and (I think) Stashak. If they are eligible for arb, the way they are separated from the club is non-tender of a contract. 

[Brandon]

18 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

You all are saying Pagán should be DFAed, technically it is non-tendered. The same with Cave and (I think) Stashak. If they are eligible for arb, the way they are separated from the club is non-tender of a contract. 

Ok non-tendered.  Stashak is someone if healthy will get a lowball offer to return.  Under 1 million and probably a split contract.  900k in majors ….

[Minny505]

In addition to Caleb Hamilton, which many have previously mentioned, I can say with 100% confidence that Billy Hamilton won't be back on a MLB contract.

And I would put the odds on Aaron Sanchez, who I have also not seen mentioned, being DFA'd at a much higher probability than Megill, who himself is probably more likely to be DFA'd than Coulumbe.

I would be shocked if Garlick was DFA'd. He fills a crucial need for the Twins lineup due to the fact that he mashes LHP to a point that he was among the league leaders in OPS vs LHP while he was playing healthy. 

Subtracting Hamilton, Hamilton, & Sanchez from the 40, and adding Garlick to it, leaves 5 spots to to fill with acquisitions this offseason, enough to grab a big game SP, a solid RP, a stopgap SS, and a backup C, with one spot left for a wild card.

[stringer bell]

30 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I would be shocked if Garlick was DFA'd. He fills a crucial need for the Twins lineup due to the fact that he mashes LHP to a point that he was among the league leaders in OPS vs LHP while he was playing healthy. 

I think the Twins will try to pull the plug on Garlick. I believe he will be arbitration eligible and they will non-tender him. Why cut him loose? He is a specialist in an era of short benches and he suffered three separate disabling injuries. He’ll be 31 before spring training starts and it doesn’t figure that he’ll be healthier or more productive than he was this year. 
 

That is not to say that the Twins might not offer him a minor league contract with an opportunity to win a spot this spring. He also still has an option IIRC. 

[stringer bell]

58 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

 

And I would put the odds on Aaron Sanchez, who I have also not seen mentioned, being DFA'd at a much higher probability than Megill, who himself is probably more likely to be DFA'd than Coulumbe.

 

Aaron Sanchez should be a free agent after this season. He already had over six years of service going into the year. 

Edit to add:  Sanchez was added to the roster today and Megill placed on the IL. It shouldn't make any difference as far as to his impending free agency at the end of the season.

[stringer bell]

Smeltzer had over two years of service time going into 2022. It might be close, but I think he also is eligible for arbitration and could be non-tendered or offered a minor league contract a la Jake Cave in 2022.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think the Twins will try to pull the plug on Garlick. I believe he will be arbitration eligible and they will non-tender him. Why cut him loose? He is a specialist in an era of short benches and he suffered three separate disabling injuries. He’ll be 31 before spring training starts and it doesn’t figure that he’ll be healthier or more productive than he was this year. 
 

That is not to say that the Twins might not offer him a minor league contract with an opportunity to win a spot this spring. He also still has an option IIRC. 

I like the reasoning, but I still disagree with your projected outcome.

If they release him, they will likely sign a part-time RHB COF to replace him that will cost $6mil-$8mil. Why spend that when you can have Garlick for $1mil or so?

If the FO plans on signing a more well-rounded, everyday RHB COF/DH type bat, then Garlick is gone.

But if they are only looking for a platoon RHB COF, they don't get much better than Garlick and he will be MUCH cheaper than anyone they can acquire from outside the org. 

[DocBauer]

Almost an impossible task to speculate since we just don't know about 2023 payroll, or how the coaches and FO feel about certain players. I mean, just as an example, do they really value Smeltzer as a 7-9 SP option with the idea he might be a great fit as a middle/long man in 2023, something they need but have been lacking the past few years? If so, he's probably a keeper. But maybe they see him as a split contract milb contract and ML invite. Just an example.

52 guys rostered right now. Just to re-hash, Archer, Bundy, Coulombe, Fulmer, Sanchez, Sachez, Hamilton, Hamilton, Leon, Correa, Sano, Cave, and Contreras all gone. 52 minus 13 brings us to 39. 

Personally, despite their stubbornness to hold on to Pagan, they need to add from within and they need from without. He's questionable, but I think he's gone or traded for a bag of balls. Palacios just hasn't shown anything with the bat, unfortunately, in SSS to indicate he should be kept. Romero spent almost the entire year on the IL, as did Stashak. Even if you like their arms when healthy, neither has shown enough to warrant being protected. Megill throws hard, has a really nice breaking ball, looked good early, and then looked bad. Do you keep a 31yo Garlick when you really need to find someone better? And then you come to the Smeltzer question I mentioned as an example. 

You MIGHT keep EITHER Pagan or Megill. But I don't see it. A healthy Alcala is better than both. You need middle arms and have a bunch of guys to look at in that role that Pagan and Megill don't fill. Smeltzer might be kept because he can potentially fill a certain role. So that's a good 6 more spots you can free up.

That 33 spots with 7 open slots. Let's assume 1 quality SP to have a good rotation and depth because there are so many question marks attached to what's coming back. Add Fulmer back in, or MAYBE someone you like better. We need a catcher, and probably have to have a 3rd on the roster, which MIGHT be Leon back, or Isola, or Camargo. MAYBE. And an actual, quality, RH hitting OF is a MUST.  And you almost have to find a temporary SS. So that's at least 5 you need to add, if not 6.

The roster suddenly jumps to 38 or 39. One more spot opens if you leave Smeltzer off, in my isted scenario. 

I've counted the roster numbers 4 times and I keep coming up with 52, not 50. Is my math off? Is the Twins website showing incorrectly and a couple guys already DFA'ed are being listed? Please tell me if I've made a mistake because I keep seeing 52, letting everyone go except maybe Smeltzer, in my example, adding 5 or 6, and suddenly you're at 38-39 before you want to add someone else besides a #3 catcher. So you have room to add just 1 or 2 prospects? Unless my math is just wrong, another 2 or 3 will have to be removed in order to add. 

Despite a preponderance opinion the Twins have a lot of "dead weight" to let go, I don't think that's true. Do you let someone like Enlow face rule 5 after coming off surgery and risk him? Do you not protect Canterino while rehabbing him? Despite recent debate/discussion that the Twins milb system is weak, there are some good players facing rule 5 you'd like to keep and might not have room to protect, hoping they aren't selected, or are returned. And there are a couple AAAA players that might turn out OK and helpful that might look elsewhere rather than coming back on a milb deal. But ultimately, this team is not devoid of talent, even with the obvious deductions, and they might have to roll the dice on a couple of young players not protected in order to keep others.

[tony&rodney]

The 40 person roster is the least of the Twins concerns. I believe they could easily cut to 35 without too much angst.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The 40 person roster is the least of the Twins concerns. I believe they could easily cut to 35 without too much angst.

This

[Rosterman]

9 hours ago, Peter Labuza said:

Do we know at what point Correa needs to announce as free agent before his club option kicks in? I guess before Rule 5....

5 days after the end of the World Series.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Do you let someone like Enlow face rule 5

Wouldn't be Rule 5. Would be a DFA and available to anyone to put on their 40 man and keep in the minors.

[DocBauer]

After making him an overslot priority draft choice and protecting him post surgery  just as he was looking like the player you drafted and then having an expected OK but not great re-hab 2022 year, do you NOT protect him again?

And I'm sure you're right about DFA vs rule 5. But the end results remain the same, don't they? You keep him or risk him. 

[TopGunn#22]

I keep Fulmer and J. Lopez to fortify my BP with a couple vets who have upside (Jorge Lopez isn't going anywhere).  I certainly protect Canterino.  He's got tremendous upside and after all they've been through with him just protect him and let him rehab and hopefully see what you have with him eventually.  Keep Urshela for Pete's Sake.  He's been solid all year.  We need a SS if Correa isn't back.  We need catchers.  We need a RH hitting OF'er.  And we have Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Kepler.  We don't need FOUR LH hitting OF'ers.  One needs to be packaged in a trade, hopefully for pitching and/or a catcher.  

There is a TON of dead weight just waiting to be cut loose.  Wipe the board clean and start over.