Jordan Balazovic Ends Season on a High Note

[Cody Christie]

Not much went right for Jordan Balazovic during the 2022 season. Thankfully, he finished the season strongly with an eye toward 2023. 

 

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Baseball development is not a linear path. Prospects can look great one month and then spiral downward later in the same year. Organizations with the greatest success level can minimize slumps and help their prospects improve before reaching their ultimate goal. 

The Twins drafted Jordan Balazovic in the fifth round of the 2016 MLB Draft. He was a high school pitcher from Ontario, Canada, which isn’t exactly a hotbed of MLB talent. Minnesota liked his frame and projectability, and those scouting reports looked true as he began his professional career. 

Since he was 17 years old, Minnesota kept Balazovic in the GCL for two seasons to start acclimating to the professional ranks. He posted a 3.61 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP, but he was adding to his frame and making adjustments to help him as he moved up the organizational ladder. His first full season came in 2018 at Cedar Rapids, where he posted an 11.4 K/9 with a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.94 ERA. At the time, he was nearly three years younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League. 

The 2019 season put Balazovic on the prospect map as he continued to be young for his level. In 18 appearances (93 2/3 innings), he posted a 2.69 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and a 129-to-25 strikeout to walk ratio. He represented the Twins at the 2019 Futures Game, and it looked like the Twins had developed a top-of-the-rotation starter. Baseball America and MLB.com placed him in their top-100 lists entering the 2020 season.

Coming out of the lost COVID season, Minnesota sent Balazovic to Double-A, and he made 20 starts in the Wind Surge rotation. He continued to strike out more than a batter per inning (9.5 K/9), but he also started giving up more hits (9.1 H/9) and walks (3.5 BB/9). By the season’s end, he had a 3.62 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP as over 81% of his at-bats came against older batters. The 2022 season was setting up to be a critical turning point in Balazovic’s development. 

Balazovic entered the 2022 season as a borderline top-100 prospect, with Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus including him on their list. At Twins Daily, he was the fourth overall prospect in the Twins organization and the highest-rated pitcher. He had success in the upper minors and was projected to make his big-league debut, but that plan didn’t work out. 

During spring training, Balazovic suffered a back injury that forced him to begin the 2022 season on the injured list. His first appearance came in May for Fort Myers as he worked his way back. By May 7th, he was in the Saints rotation, but there were struggles to start the year. Through his first nine starts, he posted a 9.24 ERA as batters accumulated a 1.141 OPS with eight home runs against him. His next eight starts slightly improved as his ERA dropped to 8.88, but he continued to surrender too many home runs. It looked like a lost season for Balazovic, but something clicked near the season’s end. 

During September, Balazovic had his best month of the season. He posted a 3.43 ERA in five starts with 30 strikeouts and ten walks in 21 innings. Batters still hit four home runs, but two of those home runs came in the same game. For the month, batters hit .247/.330/.469 (.799) as he filled the strike zone with a 62% strike rate. It had to be a satisfying end to a season that didn’t go as planned for Balazovic. 

Entering 2023, Balazovic won’t make any top-100 lists, and he will drop on Twins prospect rankings. However, he has something to build off of for 2023. Sometimes struggles are part of the development process, and Minnesota hopes Balazovic can learn from a rough 2022 season. 

What are your thoughts on Balazovic’s 2022 season? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[FlyingFinn]

Will the Twins really carry Balazovic on the 40 man roster all winter? My guess is yes, just because the plan requires a few minor league pitchers to graduate to the Twins each year. It's a gamble that now seems more likely to fail in Balazovic's case.

[Doctor Gast]

I never thought of Balazovic as a top of the rotation SP prospect. He'll eventually work himself up the ladder to compete for 5th starter next year along with a crowded group of Ober, Winder, Varland, Sands & SWR (IDK where Dobnak & Smeltzer will fall). I'm not really optimistic if he'd be anything more than middle rotation for us.

[roger]

Really liked what I saw while watching a lot of MiLB games a year ago.  Saw most/all of his starts when he had that 25 or 30 inning stretch of shutout ball.  Also saw a few games after that when he wasn't as good.  Seems like a hard kid to figure out.  He can be lights out for a game or two or month, then really stink it up for awhile.

Gotta believe the Twins remain high on him, especially seeing he had several solid outings in September.  What does the future hold?  Only Balazovic knows.

[chpettit19]

He better start 2023 on a high note or he'll continue moving towards the top of the list for guys to be removed from the 40-man next year. He's got too much upside to take him off now, but if he starts next year the way he started this year he'll lose his 40-man spot pretty quick.

Little glimmer of hope here in September, but he's got a long ways to go. Hopefully he's able to get his body, and mind, right during the offseason and hit the ground running come February in Fort Meyers. 2023 is a make or break year for him with the Twins. Hope he makes instead of breaks!

[Rosterman]

The Twins will have to keep Balazovic on the 40-man, otherwise they will outright lose him. Can they afford to keep him on the 40-man is the bigger question.

[Doctor Gast]

I think that a AFL stint this year could've cleared up some doubt and started '23 season with more clarity. His stock is super low so we can't trade him & I'd hate to lose him to the Rule 5 draft. There'll be some tough decisions again this winter.

[FlyingFinn]

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

His stock is super low so we can't trade him & I'd hate to lose him to the Rule 5 draft.

It's worse than that. He's on the 40 man and would have to be DFA'd. Therefore, another team can nab him for free. No requirement to keep him on the MLB roster like there is with the Rule 5 draftees.

[Doctor Gast]

2 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

It's worse than that. He's on the 40 man and would have to be DFA'd. Therefore, another team can nab him for free. No requirement to keep him on the MLB roster like there is with the Rule 5 draftees.

You're so right!

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

The Twins will have to keep Balazovic on the 40-man, otherwise they will outright lose him. Can they afford to keep him on the 40-man is the bigger question.

If the roster spot is that valuable to them, they can get something in trade (part of a package perhaps).  Opinions will vary as to whether they sold low if they do that, with proof either way coming in two years or under.

My inclination is to keep him on the 40, but it comes down to who gets left off as the 41st guy.

[LastOnePicked]

I just really, really, really want a pitcher with the nickname "Jordy Blaze" to have a successful career here. It takes too much hope to be a Twins fan these days, but I've still got some left in the tank for both Martin and Balazovic.

[DocBauer]

No question he's a keeper. Too talented for anyone to give up on after a bad year. He's got a great frame, velocity and some solid secondaries. His 2021 was solid, but a mixed bag. He was dominate at times, pretty average at times, but had a decent year overall. A few bumps in the road, especially if he's working on things or trying something different, aren't unexpected.

I was thinking his early setback in 2022 was a knee. The bad back makes more sense. He started late, may have been stiff, hard to know, and I've been of the belief that his mechanics were just really screwed up. If he was actually still injured, he would have been put on the IL. I've said before and say again, I think his biggest problem was between the ears. Mechanics are out of whack, you fight to get them right, all the while you're frustrated because nothing seems to work right.

But no question 2023 will be big for his future. He's talented enough and young enough a little time at St Paul won't be a bad thing. But we do need to see the Jordy Blaze of old and maybe some ML time, even at the end of the year, to see that he's still got the future envisioned for him.

[tony&rodney]

JB has some decent movement and a good arm. He totally lacks command and control and often looked unstable in his approach to pitching. He is quite raw, which seems surprising after several years of minor league ball. The Twins are likely to keep him on the 40 person roster because they may be afraid of a black eye if another organization polishes JB up and has him gain success in MLB.

[awmonahan]

You've got to hold onto him. He had some very strong stretches. I'd cut a young, reasonably talented pitcher a break for not performing with a bad back. Surely there's a spot on the 40 considering how many bullpen arms should be jettisoned. 

[Taildragger8791]

Wait…so in his best stretch he still gave up a 247/.330/.469 (.799) batting line and that’s encouraging? He gives up far too many walks at this point. Kid has talent but I’m always highly skeptical of control-issue guys because it rarely improves significantly going from AAA to MLB. 

[nclahammer]

Saw him pitch in Cedar Rapids and he looked downright nasty at times.  Saw him in St. Paul in July of this year and he was atrocious.  That being said, he seemed to figure some things out at the end of the season.  I'd lean toward keeping him on the 40 man because of his upside.

[Jham]

Never give up on a prospect until you try them in the bull pen. Focus on max effort and top 2 pitches. 

[jjswol]

I sure am glad I don't have to make a decision on him. The man threw only 5 innings twice this year, both happened in September. In 21 starts he never hit the 80 pitch mark. His stats for this year are dismal. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=balazo000jor. Still very young but being young doesn't make you a pitcher. I would try to move him before his so called potential disappears totally.

[Rosterman]

6 hours ago, awmonahan said:

You've got to hold onto him. He had some very strong stretches. I'd cut a young, reasonably talented pitcher a break for not performing with a bad back. Surely there's a spot on the 40 considering how many bullpen arms should be jettisoned. 

You pretty much can live without Stashak, Coulombe, Pagan, Megill - all on the 40-man. And Fulmer will leave. I would think all but Pagan could come back on a minor league contract if you truly wish to keep them. 

[Linus]

You have to keep him on the 40 man just to see what’s on the other side but he’s way more of a suspect than prospect at this point.