What To Do With Gio Urshela?

[dogsday]

Hmm. An infielder who batted .280 with 10 HR, 60 RBI and a .760 OPS who is an average-ish fielder and will cost $10 million, and the question is what to do with him? Oh, wait--is that a Twins Daily-style rhetorical question?

[Jeff D.]

Keep him, sign him, play him daily. Solid as a rock. Low key. Durable. Proven. Kirillof is too fragile. It would be great to see Correa stay, but that is questionable. Gordon and Royce Lewis upon return can cover many positions. Play Arraez at second and spelling at first. Miranda can DH and alternate at 3rd with Urshela. The OF has plenty of capable players with Larnach, Garlick, Celestino, Cave, Contreras. I don't mention Kepler or Buxton. I would trade them for pitching. Buxton has the long contract but has teams he would allow to go to. Kepler probably has some value, as he is a great defensive fielder but the bat is soft. No shifts will help his average. Buxton is just a mess physically and could DH and play limited games for teams in the field but would allow the Twins to get a top flight starter or starter and relief. 

Only my thoughts. Above all this, I would clean house in the coaching ranks starting with the esteemed Mr. Baldelli. It matters not who we have or where we play them, he will not inspire this team to win. It's funny that once we crumble into third place this guy starts sacrificing, bunting, stealing and letting pitchers actually get into the 6th and 7th innings. Ughhhh. GO TWINS!

Twins geezer............out!

[Minny505]

10 hours ago, Beast said:

He’s just not that good.  But, in true Twins style, he’ll be a probably centerpiece/fixture here for the next 5 years.  Batting third.  This is why there’s no hope.

Hes expendable on a legit contender.  He’s a serviceable starter on a bad team.  That’s just all there is to it.  I couldn’t care less whether he’s on the roster or not.  It means nothing.

If he’s a bench/utility guy, or bottom of roster filler, then I’m listening.

Is the “roster crunch” people are referring to sarcasm?  Or are we referring a crunch in regard to who to send packing first?  

Luis Arraez is OPSing less than .800 this year and for his career, and people talk about him as if he’s an HOFer, transcendent talent. The same “analytics” guys telling you BA doesn’t mean squat, will treat powerless Arraez as if he’s playing the same game as Gwynn in the 80s.  That’s basically our centerpiece going forward. Just one example of delusion.  

Im starting to wonder if it’s just time to just fold this tent and move it to whichever obscure southern city will take it.  Is there even a realistic scenario where we’re even remotely competitive in the next century?  Gio freaking Urshela?

Maybe a little hyperbole, here, but my God is this frustrating.  What an absolute disaster in all facets.  From ownership, to administration, to the players, to the media, to the fans.  It’s literally the meme with the dog sitting at kitchen table with the house on fire sipping his coffee.

This is an epic rant that I laughed at the whole way thru.

And it wouldn't be funny if you were wrong. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I was a big supporter of the trade for Urshela and loved having him on the team.  However, this discussion sounds a lot like last year when the majority thought we should keep Donaldson.  Some absolutely insisted the FO must be incompetent because we had obviously gotten worse at 3B and catcher.  The trade worked out great for 22 and it's likely Donaldson will continue to decline making it an even better trade going forward.   

Going forward Urshela's relative importance to 2023 depends on Kirilloff's health.  If Kirilloff is healthy we have Urshela / Arraez / Miranda, Polanco and Kirilloff for 3 positions with Gordon also able to play 2B.  He is not part of the solution beyond 2023 so I would not be too disappointed if they could get something back and invest the $10M saved elsewhere.  The team is at least at good with Miranda at 3B and they could go get a RH DH/1B with that 10M to complement Arraez and that player would be around longer than 1 year. 

[jorgenswest]

I think I would let him go. He probably has another similar year left but he has little space to decline. I also don’t think he benefits at all with the larger bases or shifting restrictions. Start Miranda at third and Arraez at first. Maybe look to shift some of that money towards catcher. Sanchez has an average to above average arm (14/49) but he will be a free agent. The others with the same pitchers holding runners on threw out 8/62. Base stealing will likely be a larger factor next year.

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, Mark G said:

I am a little confused on one or two things.  You say you want to keep Gio, but not long term, because Miranda has the better bat, can improve his defense over time, and is part of the future core.  On the other hand you say Miranda is likely not the 3rd baseman of the future with all the prospects we have coming up, and if AK does get well and takes on 1st base as a primary position, where does that leave Miranda?  

If Miranda has been groomed to be our 3rd baseman of the future, then Gio is only going to warrant the one year arbitration offer; there is no room for both at one position longer term.  But if Miranda is only holding down the position until one of the prospects shows up and takes over, I will go back to the bird in the hand argument.  Gio is a proven commodity, and I will take that over potential prospects coming up in '24 or beyond, because they not only have to develop thoroughly, they have to stay healthy and that is a real trick in this organization.  Miranda can play both 3rd and 1st, and can DH on other days.  And even if AK comes back next year and plays up to his potential, that injury is always one swing away from derailing the whole plan; and he can play the OF as well.  We took a gamble on a 33 year old Donaldson, knowing Miranda was in the wings, but won't take a chance on a 30-31 year old Gio?  I don't think it would take 4 years, but 2 or 3 with an option would be appropriate, at least in this extremely humble observers opinion.  But I will add the price has to be right; no Donaldson esq contract.  

In a different post I threw out the idea that it might be time to trade Polanco while he still has a decent return value.  That opens up a spot for Arraez, and breaks the logjam of 1st and 3rd base players somewhat.  Right now, from what I have seen this year, Urshella is healthier than Polanco and can match his bat.  We have trade value for Palanco, and virtually none for Urshella, with no team control after '23.  Might be a better plan for the immediate future while we wait for the long term future to prove itself.  Just one man's thought process at 2:20 in the morning.    

I could have been a little more clear in some of what I said. Too many thoughts all at once. I'll try to sort it with a little more clarity and brevity.

Yes to keeping Urshela. No to an extension as he's not part of the future. Yes, I think Miranda is OK at 3B and will get better, hence, younger and the better bat, he's clearly the better overall player and part of the future, or the "new core". 

Maybe, that Miranda is the full time future 3B. He can be! But Lee just might end up an even better fit there, or possibly Lewis depending on how SS turns out. (Which is still obviously a mystery). AK is also in the mix at 1B and could be outstanding there and at the plate. He might take a while after this surgery to get back, he might be 100% right away, and it might not work. So Miranda could end up at 3B or 1B or do what he's doing now and play both. My whole was an attempt to say good players and depth is needed, wanted, and a good thing. That's why having Urshela back is smart. It's why Miraanda's flexibility is a good thing.

In an ideal world, at this point next year, we'll have Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Lee, and Gordon all ready to be part of 2024 is some configuration. You can never have enough good players. 

I'm not with you on moving Polanco. He was great last year and good again this year until injured. I want to say he was leading the team in RBI and 2nd or 3rd in OPS before he went down. Anyway, I'm not sure yet when Julien is going to be ready, and is he sticking at 2B? I think Martin is headed to the OF and will cover some INF, but not be a fixture there. (A hunch). And while Lee or Lewis could also be excellent 2B, until we see how the rest of the INF shakes out, the last thing I want to do is create another potential hole. 

Besides, a healthy Polanco is just damn good and I'm not ready to move on at this time. But, I'd be willing to re-visit your idea next offseason, if not the trade deadline this upcoming season.

[Mark G]

59 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think I would let him go. He probably has another similar year left but he has little space to decline. I also don’t think he benefits at all with the larger bases or shifting restrictions. Start Miranda at third and Arraez at first. Maybe look to shift some of that money towards catcher. Sanchez has an average to above average arm (14/49) but he will be a free agent. The others with the same pitchers holding runners on threw out 8/62. Base stealing will likely be a larger factor next year.

Totally agree on the catching situation.  In the opinion of this extremely humble observer it is as dire as any position we have right now.

But I will continue to submit we get nothing for Urshela by just not tendering him and letting him go.  I would submit that we trade Polanco while he does have value, and move Arraez to 2nd, breaking up that logjam somewhat.  Polanco reminds me a lot of Rasario; once he started to fall, he fell quite a bit.  Polanco is starting to get hurt more, and his production shows.  Trade him while he has value, hold onto Urshela while he is playing well, and keep Miranda free to play both corners.  I just don't trust the health of Polanco and Kirilloff.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 9/30/2022 at 11:05 AM, Mark G said:

I know this is probably shouting from the bleachers, so to speak, a minority of one, probably.  What if we were to sign Urshela, leaving him at 3rd, trade Polanco while he still has decent value, put Arraez at 2nd primarily with Gordon as the utility guy filling in, use Miranda and Kirilloff at 1st with the other DHing when not in the field.  That is one medium priced IF guy and 4 pretty cheap ones, and a pretty decent batting order.  It leaves money to sign Correa, or pitching if Carlos leaves, and the outfield has more than enough guys to fight it out for 4 spots.  And find a catcher!!  

Now, if Carlos does leave, we may have to live with a stop gap FA for a year until one of our guys are ready, but we could fit one into the budget.  

I will try not to read the responses; I get scolded enough at home.    

Mark, What is Urshela plays SS until Lewis or Miller or Lee can prove that he (1 of the 3) is ready to play world class SS for the Twinkies? I really think Gio can do it. OK all you fielding stat experts, prove me wrong. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, Jeff D. said:

 It's funny that once we crumble into third place this guy starts sacrificing, bunting, stealing and letting pitchers actually get into the 6th and 7th innings. Ughhhh. GO TWINS!

Twins geezer............out!

Interesting points here. Why is this? Is it because  it is easier for Rocco to tell a guy who is not a multimillionaire to bunt or hit and run or hit against the shift?

[ashbury]

17 hours ago, gman said:

If he's the worst player on your roster then you're in good shape.

Great way of looking at it.  In an injury-riddled year, he provided above-average play (disguised for many by a league-wide decline in offense), and did it by appearing in the second most games on the team, barely behind Arraez, which made him a relative beacon of stability.  Fix other problems first. 

$10M will make him only the third highest paid player, behind Buxton and Gray, and it's the cost of doing business unless you are so confident in the younger low-paid players (and their return to health) that you can afford to jettison the guy who ranks fourth in Runs and third in RBIs. 

No such thing as a bad one-year contract, and if he does turn out to be the worst player on your roster in 2023, then barring injury it means some things have gone very, very well and thus becomes the proverbial "nice problem to have."

[Mortimerkenny21]

I'd say keep him for a few more year's, he has proven himself. Don't have to worry about his defense at 3rd. He is stability to a team full of instability and injuries.

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/30/2022 at 8:08 AM, Mark G said:

No brainer.  He is your starting 3rd baseman.  His numbers match up with virtually anyone on the team all told, less power than Buck but hits for a much better average, has numbers overall that match pretty well with Correa and Miranda, and doesn't hit as much for average as Arraez, but has more power.  Absolutely a better defensive 3rd baseman than Miranda, and I am SO sick and tired of saying 10M is too much to pay for a player with his overall performance.  

I would sign him to an extension, maybe 2 years with a team option for a 3rd, and if the team goes south you could trade him with his contract control being a good bargaining chip.  He is a good all around player and not a problem child as far as I have ever read.  Sign him!  

Great plan!! ……I was going to suggest, if Correa leaves, we trade Urshella straight up for Red’s SS Farmer. Similar bat & we will need  a SS. I like committing to Urshella though and trying to stretch to June/July with someone else at short until Lewis is strong enough to play every day. Urshella is consistency we need - not flashy - but solid.

[Mark G]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Mark, What is Urshela plays SS until Lewis or Miller or Lee can prove that he (1 of the 3) is ready to play world class SS for the Twinkies? I really think Gio can do it. OK all you fielding stat experts, prove me wrong. 

A while back (not sure exactly how far, but not too far) I floated the idea of putting Gio at short if Correa left, and I was scolded for that, too.    That's why I didn't do it this time, but I agree with you that it is not a bad short term solution.  He has played it before, and it wouldn't be long term.  And look at it this way:  with all the major shifts we put on left handed pitchers, he has moved over into the traditional SS position so many times he is probably used to it.     

Overall, I like the guy and he isn't that expensive in todays baseball dollars.  Give him an extension.  

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if the reduction in shifts and larger bases will result in a shift in relative defensive value. Will defense up the middle be more valuable and the corners less? 

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Mark G said:

A while back (not sure exactly how far, but not too far) I floated the idea of putting Gio at short if Correa left, and I was scolded for that, too.    That's why I didn't do it this time, but I agree with you that it is not a bad short term solution.  He has played it before, and it wouldn't be long term.  And look at it this way:  with all the major shifts we put on left handed pitchers, he has moved over into the traditional SS position so many times he is probably used to it.     

Overall, I like the guy and he isn't that expensive in todays baseball dollars.  Give him an extension.  

An extension makes little sense.  Miranda is already the better overall player with a good chance of getting better.  The money would be much better spent on 1B if Kirilloff does not return to health.  That position is easier to fill through free agency or trade.  If Kirilloff is healthy, by mid 23 you have Kirilloff / Polanco / Arraez / Miranda / Gordon / Lewis and Urshela for 3 positions and by 24 you probably add Martin and Lee.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I wonder if the reduction in shifts and larger bases will result in a shift in relative defensive value. Will defense up the middle be more valuable and the corners less? 

Defensive value has been "shifting" from 2B to 3B. With the new anti-shift rules you will see range at 2B become more important and 3B less important. That would be good news for Jose Miranda.

I don't have much confidence that Miranda will become a better defender. Players are mostly finished products at age 24 defensively. If they can't handle a position by age 25 they get moved to one that is more suited to their athletic ability.

[The Mad King]

Sign him for the year. Until Kiriloff proves he can stay healthy you can't count on him. 

[tonderk]

Keep him for next year. He’s dependable, fun to watch, a crowd favorite and one of the few that managed to stay healthy this year. Seems to be a great teammate and veteran for young players to look to. Hopefully by the end of next season some of the young guys are healthy and ready to take over, but I don’t count on it for Opening Day. 

[William K Johnson]

On 9/30/2022 at 8:48 AM, AlGoreRythm said:

His defense has been decent but certainly not incredible. He's had some very good plays, some that looked better than they were due to his lack of range, and quite a few plays that should've been made but we're either outside his limited range or just bobbled/dropped/knocked down.

He's far from a butcher, but certainly not anywhere near incredible or gold glove status.

For reference, Baseball Savant had his ’22 Outs Above Average as -5 at 3rd this year

 

Well let's put Miranda there next season and see how that works how for you.

[Mike Sixel]

I think I keep him. But I wouldn't be angry if they didn't. I think either decision is defensible. He's Kepler, but at third. Interestingly, everyone seems to want to do the opposite with those two. 

[William K Johnson]

On 9/30/2022 at 8:48 AM, AlGoreRythm said:

His defense has been decent but certainly not incredible. He's had some very good plays, some that looked better than they were due to his lack of range, and quite a few plays that should've been made but we're either outside his limited range or just bobbled/dropped/knocked down.

He's far from a butcher, but certainly not anywhere near incredible or gold glove status.

For reference, Baseball Savant had his ’22 Outs Above Average as -5 at 3rd this year

 

Rocco, is that you?   Put those stats down and watch the game.

[Mike Sixel]

59 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Rocco, is that you?   Put those stats down and watch the game.

You watch every game in all of baseball? Write down every play, and compare every player?

[William K Johnson]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You watch every game in all of baseball? Write down every play, and compare every player?

Of course not, but have watched enough Twins games to know that we have something good at third base after watching the way the position has been butchered over the last several years.