Reevaluating Minnesota’s 3 Young Outfielders

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Well sure, but no such offers are going to be forthcoming from another front office, not even if we throw in Brian Duensing as a sweetener.

Turn the perspective around: would you have traded 2004 Johan Santana for, um, Marcus Giles, who hit .311 that year?

Stars for stars trades are pretty rare in baseball. It's usually expensive vets for prospects.

They won't get Cease for Arraez but the Brewers have holes at 1B and 2B and could use a bat. Would they deal Freddy Peralta for Arraez?

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Ummm..... Sample Size anyone?

Mike Trout, Lance Berkman, Bernie Williams, Mike Schmidt...  How about a little closer to home:  Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau, Harmon Killebrew

I could go on and on.  All had slow starts to their career.   Good thing no one wrote them off so early.  30-40 games is not enough time to make a decision either way.  Factor in the injuries and it makes it even harder.

Killebrew was an established All Star at age 23. Schmidt had MVP votes at 24. Berkman won Rookie of the Year at age 24. Trout was the best player on the planet at age 20. None of them are good comps for Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner.

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Stars for stars trades are pretty rare in baseball. It's usually expensive vets for prospects.

They won't get Cease for Arraez but the Brewers have holes at 1B and 2B and could use a bat. Would they deal Freddy Peralta for Arraez?

They just might. 

Is our FO interested in acquiring Tyler Mahle 2.0, with shoulder IL time in both 2021 and 2022 plus a 60-day stint for a lat ailment?  Sound like just the sort of sweet opportunity our guys would jump at.

[Steve71]

I want the Twins to play Kepler in CF next year and have Buxton DH.  Buxton is too darn fragile.  If you want to spot start him against lefties, fine, but Kepler should play CF.

Gordon has earned a roster spot by playing handsomely and can cover multiple positions.

Kiriloff is a complete unknown, can't realistically count on him for anything in planning for 2023.

Larnach, to me, is now in prove it mode.  I would start him in AAA unless he tears it up in spring training.

Celestino seems limited to a defensive replacement, as he is just not hitting.

As an aside, the Twins need catching help in the worst way.  Is there any hope that someone like Camargo can play at the MLB level?

[Blyleven2011]

Is wallner ahead of kiriloff and larnach  ...

The only thing right now that Wallner  is ahead of  is his exist velocity  , man does he swing hard  ...

He will start the season at AAA in 2023 , unless the are casualties  in spring training that are still injured and can't go ...

[gman]

I wouldn't expect to see Kirilloff before mid June. They don't need him to start the year, but when he shows up they do need him to be healthy. Wallner I think will start in St Paul and probably go back and forth all year. They do need Larnach to be healthy and hitting from the word go. They do need some power in that lineup. Can't plan on Buxton for more than 3-4 games a week. Celestino needs to develop at triple A, maybe Gordon can play center 2-3 games a week.

[Jim wyllie]

Something no one seems to consider is where will royce Lewis be playing next year when he gets healthy.  I know Correa is not likely coming back, but if they do bring him back and retain urshela the twins end up with massive log jam in the outfield and my thoughts fir it are lewis Buxton and waller starting and larnach as of/dh with kirilloff the odd man out at this point considering his wrist issue may be career threatening 

[Finlander]

To continue the armchair GM thread....I think Minnesota and Toronto could match up well in swapping outfielders. The Jays are extremely right-handed, while the Twins have so many lefty OF bats. Might Gurriel or Hernandez be available? We could send, say, Larnach, and maybe add Kepler as a sweetener to help balance laterality of the corner OFs for both teams...

I like Wallner, but his K rate approaches Sano territory. 128 games, 170 Ks in AA/AAA. Ouch. Rate is pretty high so far with the Twins. It's fun when he does make contact, and he is pretty fast for a tall guy. Hopefully his Ks come down. Kirilloff is probably the most talented hitter of the three lefty swinging corners, but we'll have to wait until spring to see where he's at with his swing. I think Larnach still has plenty of upside he hasn't touched yet. A previous post mentioned his improvement against lefty pitching. I agree, he was hanging in there nicely. He sure has a love affair with left-center though; hope he learns to pull a bit. Could come in handy during the next playoff series against the Yankees in a year or three.

It all comes down to health for these guys. I'd like to see one of them moved in a package for an established righty corner OF. A starter, not a backup. Outrageous ask? Hope not..

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

They just might. 

Is our FO interested in acquiring Tyler Mahle 2.0, with shoulder IL time in both 2021 and 2022 plus a 60-day stint for a lat ailment?  Sound like just the sort of sweet opportunity our guys would jump at.

Hopefully they do more due diligence than the 10 minutes I spent avoiding work this afternoon.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 9/30/2022 at 2:26 PM, DJL44 said:

Killebrew was an established All Star at age 23. Schmidt had MVP votes at 24. Berkman won Rookie of the Year at age 24. Trout was the best player on the planet at age 20. None of them are good comps for Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner.

Look again... All of these examples had a very slow start their first and/or second year, most of which was 150 AB or less.

I am not saying that Larnach or Wallner will rise to those levels.  I am saying that you can't always judge a player based on early returns.

[Riverbrian]

On 9/30/2022 at 6:56 PM, Jim wyllie said:

the twins end up with massive log jam in the outfield

We were supposed to have a massive log jam in the outfield this year. Finished the year. Didn't finish the season with a log jam. 

I am personally hoping for an actual massive log jam. ? 

 

 

[Spth]

On 9/30/2022 at 8:51 AM, roger said:

I continue to be amazed when I read comments suggesting the Twins trade Arraez.  He is the best hitter the Twins have had since Joe Mauer.  Many from the organization compare him to Carew.  A generational talent, yet move him out for a catcher, or whomever. 

He’s a good player, but Rod Carew he is not. People compare his ability to make contact to Rod Carew. But not much else. He has below average speed and defense with little power.  I’d much rather have an improving and versatile Nick Gordon than a singles hitter without a position. Especially if a team is willing to buy high on said singles hitter.  

[roger]

10 hours ago, Spth said:

He’s a good player, but Rod Carew he is not. People compare his ability to make contact to Rod Carew. But not much else. He has below average speed and defense with little power.  I’d much rather have an improving and versatile Nick Gordon than a singles hitter without a position. Especially if a team is willing to buy high on said singles hitter.  

Didn't say he was as good as Rod Carew.  Said many compare him to Carew.  My memory isn't always 100% anymore, but didn't Carew himself make that comparison?

In my opinion, there is no comparison between Arraez and Gordon.  Yes, Gordon is faster and more versatile defensively.  Personally see Arraez as improving defensively this year by playing only two positions.  Also believe that what Arraez did this year will be repeated year after year.  Not all that certain that Gordon just may have had a career year.  Will be interesting to see how he does in 2023.  Hopefully, he will repeat and who knows...he may be their starting shortstop.

[Major League Ready]

On 9/29/2022 at 6:49 PM, roger said:

I see too many comments declaring the likelihood that AK may never play again.  It is true that his surgery isn’t common for baseball players.  But that doesn’t mean it can’t work.  Don’t know how many doctors we have here today, but maybe one can offer some insight.  The truth is WE don’t know anything  about this surgery.  But we aren’t the patient or the Twins.

what is fact is that many people believed AK to be one of the best hitters in all of the minor leagues before his injury.  Didn’t he have the second best stats to that superstar now playing for Toronto?  So what we do know is this kid was a very special talent.  I am willing to wait until spring training when we will know how he is doing before declaring his career is over.

I heard on one of the MLB radio shows that Kirk Gibson had the same surgery early in his career.  He did OK!