Week in Review: The Walking Dead

[Nick Nelson]

The book is closed on Minnesota's 2022 postseason chances, and the Twins are sure playing like it. This past week saw an injury-ravaged, undermanned, seemingly disinterested team going through the motions to play out a soul-crushing second half of a sunken season.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/19 through Sun, 9/25
***
Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 74-79)
Run Differential Last Week: -19 (Overall: -1)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (12.0 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 147 | CLE 11, MIN 4: Guardians Humiliate Twins in Final Match-up
Game 148 | KC 5, MIN 4: Bundy Bad, Bats Fizzle After Strong Start
Game 149 | KC 5, MIN 2: Offense Lifeless Outside of Wallner's 2 RBIs
Game 150 | KC 4, MIN 1: Lifeless Twins Swept by Lowly Royals
Game 151 | LAA 4, MIN 2: Twins Can't Overcome Ohtani, Fall to Angels
Game 152 | MIN 8, LAA 4: Losing Streak Snapped Behind Bats, Bullpen
Game 153 | LAA 10, MiN 3: Halos Pull Away Late to Take Series

NEWS & NOTES

With contention now firmly out of the picture following a dozen-game slide in the standings over the past three weeks – from tied for first on September 4th to 12 games out on September 25th – the Twins are starting to pack it in and make preparations for the offseason and beyond. Step 1: taking action on Byron Buxton's broken-down body.

The team announced on Friday that Buxton will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean up scar tissue in the right knee that's bothered him for nearly the entire season. The hope is that this procedure, along with several months to rest his ailing hip, will put Buxton in a solid place physically heading into next spring, so he can take another shot at getting through a full season. 

He finishes 2022 with 92 games played and 382 plate appearances, both the second-highest totals of his career. He also posted 4+ Wins Above Replacement for a second straight year. Another solid yet ultimately unfulfilling campaign.

Elsewhere...

• Sonny Gray went on the injured list with a hamstring strain, which drained his velocity in a brutal Monday start against Cleveland where he allowed four runs in two innings. Very reminiscent to the final start in Chicago from Tyler Mahle (also now confirmed out for the season).
• Louie Varland was recalled to join the rotation again, probably for the rest of the year. Trevor Megill was activated from COVID IL. 
• Drew Strotman, designated for assignment last weekend, was claimed off waivers by the Texas Rangers. Dereck Rodriguez was outrighted to the Saints. Aaron Sanchez was also DFA'ed.

HIGHLIGHTS

The only real highlight of this miserable stretch of play was Matt Wallner, who is taking advantage of his late-season audition by showing what he can do with the stick. The 24-year-old found himself in the starting lineup for five of six games and delivered four hits with two doubles, two RBIs, and two walks.

On Tuesday in Kansas City, Wallner provided the totality of Minnesota's meager offensive output, driving in two runs with three hits on the way to a 5-2 loss. He's making hard contact and showing the pop that helped produce 27 homers and a .542 slugging percentage between Double-A and Triple-A this season. 

An especially impressive aspect of Wallner's initial play was how he was keeping the whiffs in check, with only eight strikeouts in his first seven games, but on Friday and Saturday against Los Angeles he went 0-for-7 with six Ks. Growing pains for the young lefty slugger – but that's what these meaningless final games are for.

LOWLIGHTS

No, the pitching has not been especially good. Losing Gray from an already depleted staff only further diminishes a group that's been doing little to help the cause. Jorge López's complete meltdown on Monday (0.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 ER) was beyond discouraging and concerning.

But let's be real: the offense is primarily responsible for dragging this team into a humiliating abyss. They scored more than four runs in a game just once all all week, and have done so five times in the entire month of September. 

Yeah, it hurts to be forced to use Jermaine Palacios – who is 0-for-33 with 15 strikeouts in the month of September – semi-regularly. And obviously it hurts to be without the likes of Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. But there are also key players who had been productive and now are just fading away completely.

José Miranda went 6-for-25, all of his hits singles, with no RBIs. He is slashing just .261/.328/.384 with five homers in 52 games since the start of August. When Miranda first arrived on the scene, he was an ignitor and catalyst for the Twins offense, mashing homers with frequency and driving in runs reliably. That has since gone completely amiss, though he's continued to bat third or fourth almost everyday (and leadoff on Sunday!). 

Another underrated culprit in the team's demise, unfortunately: Luis Arraez. His once-firm grasp on the AL batting race has given way and he's now fallen to third, paving way for an Aaron Judge triple crown bid. The hits just continue to not fall for Arraez, who has only two multi-hit games in his past 12 and is batting .237/.256/.237 during this span.

That can be how it goes when you don't have any power – his hard-hit rate ranks in the bottom 7% of all MLB hitters – and, as of late, no patience. Arraez has drawn only one walk in the entire month of September, where he has a .302 on-base percentage. 

His All-Star first half has been followed by a sub-mediocre second half – since the break, Arraez has been worth 0.3 fWAR in 54 games. Although, again, it should be noted that he's clearly playing nowhere near 100% as a hamstring issue hobbles him continuously. He has the second-worst WPA on the team since the start of August. (Miranda is fourth-worst, with Palacios and Mark Contreras occupying the other two spots. Two of those names you'd probably expect.)

TRENDING STORYLINE

With several players in the late stages of rehab here as this lost season draws to a close, the team must try to balance the value of getting them back on the field to finish on a positive note, versus the value of simply shutting them down and letting them get early starts on their offseasons.

They've already chosen the latter path with Buxton and it seems they're inclined to take the same route with Polanco, although he hasn't officially been ruled out. Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach all have a decent chance to return in the coming week, for whatever that is worth. 

LOOKING AHEAD

There is not an ounce of competitive drama left to extract from this season – even the White Sox, who Twins might have been motivated to spoil in six remaining match-ups, have already taken themselves out of contention. 

With that said, this is our last full week of Twins baseball until 2023, so try to enjoy these remaining moments. I know I'll be getting out to Target Field one last time for during the final home series against the White Sox, which will feature a trio of internally developed Twins starters who figure to be key parts of next year's plan. 

TUESDAY, 9/27: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Bailey Ober
WEDNESDAY, 9/28: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Johnny Cueto v. RHP Josh Winder
THURSDAY, 9/29: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito vs RHP Louie Varland
FRIDAY, 9/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Drew Hutchison
SATURDAY, 10/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Tyler Alexander
SUNDAY, 10/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Joey Wentz

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

Accurate but very sad.  Has Arraez peaked.  Has he adjusted his hitting?  Is Miranda just tired?  Who wants to see Pagan and Lopez anymore - this season or next? 

Has Wallner taken the lead for RF in 23?  

So many questions about the pitchers. 

What is the good news?

[Game7-91]

26 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

What is the good news?

There are only 9 games left?

[tony&rodney]

The Walking Dead. What a great lead and so true. I'm a little surprised that the younger players aren't making a better impression. It almost looks like the missing (Jeffers, Kirilloff, Polanco, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, maybe Garlick and Lewis) can count on being penciled in upon return in 2023. 

[Einheri]

Such a sad ending to what had been a pretty average season.

[Aerodeliria]

I finally had a chance to watch the Twins. Way back in June/July, I was kind of hoping to be able to watch them in their "clinching the division" mode when the Angels came to town. Unfortunately, only games 1 and 3 were on J-Sports 3. Game two was on a different J-Sports channel. Not that it really matters but here are my impressions of players who I haven't seen or haven't seen much:

Player impressions:

Megill: He pitched well in game 1 and terribly in game 3, but even in game one, I told my wife that despite his ability to throw +100 (he did it on several occasions according the Angels announcers...who I like BTW), his fastball has very little movement. I was not impressed in either of the games.

Henriquez: I liked him a lot. He moved the ball around and his pitches had very good movement. I think he's legit.

Varland: So-so. He has potential, but he looked like a AAA pitcher to me. He made critical mistakes to dangerous hitters.

Pagan: He pitched well. I think when he can find the strike zone early in the counts, he can be a decent pitcher.

Miranda: He's a pretty good hitter and he'll get better. I like his approach.

Gordon: He's a hacker, but I like him. He's hard not to like. He's not an outfielder though--not yet anyway, but who knows. He could become great as he has the speed.

Contreras: Send him back to AAA. He's has a long way to go. He made the pitchers look good. He looked decent in centerfield.

Celestino: He could be a decent hitter, but when runners were in scoring position, he became very impatient (every time) and swung at the pitcher's pitch. He is a competent fielder.

Wallner: He already looks very polished at the plate, and he played very well in the field in game 1. I like him a lot.

Hamilton: He hit a homerun when game 3 was out of reach, but he appeared completely overmatched in every other at bat. I don't know very much about him, but he looks like a minor-leaguer to be honest.

Urshela: He looked like a professional both at the plate and in the field. 

Palacios: Sorry, but he doesn't seem to have a clue. He made a few bad decisions in the games that I watched, including the "'no-look" throw into left field, but even on the routine plays, he made mistakes, such as letting the runner on second go to 3rd on a groundout hit directly at him. That's a high school-level mistake. His plate appearances were brutal. In game 1, he never was offered an actual strike from the pitchers but he still struck out. He offered at pitches that were a foot off of the plate early in the count. In game 3, he wasn't much better. I doubt he'll be ready for primetime anytime soon.

General impressions:

The Twins are a very sedentary team on the bases. The Angels announcers referred to this quite often, noting that if you don't have to throw over to first because you know the Twins aren't going to run, it helps you as a pitcher to 1) relax and 2) save your arm for pitching. (Despite all of the baserunners that Twins had in the two games that I watched, the Angels pitchers NEVER threw over to 1st base--not once!!)

Twins hitters constantly expanded the strike zone when runners were in scoring position. Perhaps this explains why they have such abysmal stats with runners in scoring position. They seemed to be thinking launch angle and were very impatient in general.

The Twins made a number of mental errors in the field. Of course, this resulted in runs. I mentioned Palacios, but Bundy failing to back up the catcher on a throw home? Those kinds of defensive tactics should be instinctive, but they need to be practiced...I wonder how often they are practiced...

OK! Let the poison arrows fall from the skies.

 

[Blyleven2011]

The walking dead  ...

Minnesota twins  ...

Minnesota twinkies ....

How about the Minnesota possums  , they play dead at home and then get killed on the road  ...

I do love my twins baseball  ....

[wsnydes]

This seems like a pretty good summation for not just the past week, but the bulk of the second half.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

Fair enough and not totally unwarranted critiques of Miranda and Arraez. While you do back it with some numbers, it just seems odd to point the finger or even mention those two as any part of the problem. 

[bighat]

Absolute embarrassment the way they are finishing this season. Shoved into a locker by Cleveland and then they refuse to even try the rest of the way. It's truly evident the Twins don't care whether they win or lose a game at this point. No pride, no competitiveness, just going through the motions until they can all get the hell out of the clubhouse.

Not saying I wouldn't do the same, but as a fan it's really disappointing to watch your favorite team become so disinterested in playing baseball. 

[HokieRif]

2 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Fair enough and not totally unwarranted critiques of Miranda and Arraez. While you do back it with some numbers, it just seems odd to point the finger or even mention those two as any part of the problem. 

On a competitive ball club these two have the traits of guys that help make a good team great, and make the lineup great from 1-9 in the order.  On the Twins though, they are the marquee players.

But just imagine for a moment where the entirety of the Twins stayed healthy this season*.  I think we stay a lot more competitive throughout the year, and given the strength of the central we probably win it by 10-15 games, easy.  Guys like Arraez and Miranda become the anecdotes in the season that help push this team to the division championship, and not the reason we hope to stay competitive...

If I'm in the front office there are of course things I'm looking to change / pick-up in the off season to re-tool the pitching staff.  But I'm also taking a very hard look at the strength, conditioning, and the medical staff.  The amount of injuries that happened this year, and the way many continued to find themselves hampered by those injuries (not playing up to expectations, heading back to the IL, etc) tells me that something is really not right with the way the players are being handled.  I'm also focusing on off-season conditioning so that these scheduled rest days that Rocco loves so much don't have to happen in the first place. 

* Except for Buxton.  I honestly believe he's always going to find a way to get injured and miss extended playing time every season.  At some point you have to look at the history and know that this is a predictable pattern and not some unlucky trend.  In 8 season, he's only managed to play more than 92 games ONCE, and that was 5 years ago.  If he can just get to the first tier of his plate appearance bonus next year I'll take that as significant progress.

[LA VIkes Fan]

13 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I finally had a chance to watch the Twins. Way back in June/July, I was kind of hoping to be able to watch them in their "clinching the division" mode when the Angels came to town. Unfortunately, only games 1 and 3 were on J-Sports 3. Game two was on a different J-Sports channel. Not that it really matters but here are my impressions of players who I haven't seen or haven't seen much:

Player impressions:

Megill: He pitched well in game 1 and terrible in game 3, but even in game one, I told my wife that despite his ability to throw +100 (he did it on several occasions according the Angels announcers...who I like BTW), his fastball has very little movement. I was not impressed in either of the games.

Henriquez: I liked him a lot. He moved the ball around and his pitches had very good movement. I think he's legit.

Varland: So-so. He has potential, but he looked like a AAA pitcher to me. He made critical mistakes to dangerous hitters.

Pagan: He pitched well. I think when he can find the strike zone early in the counts, he can be a decent pitcher.

Miranda: He's a pretty good hitter and he'll get better. I like his approach.

Gordon: He's a hacker, but I like him. He's hard not to like. He's not an outfielder though--not yet anyway, but who knows. He could become great as he has the speed.

Contreras: Send him back to AAA. He's has a long way to go. He made the pitchers look good. He looked decent in centerfield.

Celestino: He could be a decent hitter, but when runners were in scoring position, he became very impatient (every time) and swung at the pitcher's pitch. He is a competent fielder.

Wallner: He already looks very polished at the plate, and he played very well in the field in game 1. I like him a lot.

Hamilton: He hit a homerun when game 3 was out of reach, but he appeared completely overmatched in every other at bat. I don't know very much about him, but he looks like a minor-leaguer to be honest.

Urshela: He looked like a professional both at the plate and in the field. 

Palacios: Sorry, but he doesn't seem to have a clue. He made a few bad decisions in the games that I watched, including the "'no-look" throw into left field, but even on the routine plays, he made mistakes, such as letting the runner on second go to 3rd on a groundout hit directly at him. That's a high school-level mistake. His plate appearances were brutal. In game 1, he never was offered an actual strike from the pitchers but he still struck out. He offered at pitches that were a foot off of the plate early in the count. In game 3, he wasn't much better. I doubt he'll be ready for primetime anytime soon.

General impressions:

The Twins are a very sedentary team on the bases. The Angels announcers referred to this quite often, noting that if you don't have to throw over to first because you know the Twins aren't going to run, it helps you as a pitcher to 1) relax and 2) save your arm for pitching. (Despite all of the baserunners that Twins had in the two games that I watched, the Angels pitchers NEVER threw over to 1st base--not once!!)

Twins hitters constantly expanded the strike zone when runners were in scoring position. Perhaps this explains why they have such abysmal stats with runners in scoring position. They seemed to be thinking launch angle and were very impatient in general.

The Twins made a number of mental errors in the field. Of course, this resulted in runs. I mentioned Palacios, but Bundy failing to back up the catcher on a throw home? Those kinds of defensive tactics should be instinctive, but they need to be practiced...I wonder how often they are practiced...

OK! Let the poison arrows fall from the skies.

 

Agree almost entirely with your analysis of the players. I think we all may be falling victim to overestimating Waller as the new guy in town. To me, looks like he needs a season AAA with the possibility of a midseason call up. Gordon looks real. I hope we find him an everyday spot next year in LF or RF; he's athletic and can learn to play OF.  On the other side of the coin, Palacios is completely overmatched. This hopefully eliminates the thought that he could be the replacement for Correa while we wait for Royce Lewis next year. We have to find someone else, even if it means putting Polanco back in short for half a season with Arraez or Gordon playing second.

I also agree with you and the Angels announcers on how sedentary the Twins look on the bases. No stolen bases and no even attempt to hit and run. We got to do something about that because with the change in base size next year and limits on throwing over its quite possible there's really be a lot more base stealing and a lot more running in general. I'm a little surprised that we aren't running guys like Jake Cave on those rare occasions he gets on base, but the real problem is outside of Gordon you just don't see anyone likely to be in the starting lineup next year that brings much speed other than Buxton. That is going to be a real problem if it is not addressed. We have spots open in the lineup is at least one corner outfield spot and backup CF (plays there 40-50% of the time). I've been advocating for really looking for impact bat in the off-season but maybe needs to be an impact bat with speed. 

[RpR]

Wallner on the field is a bull in a china shop

Two games in a row he nearly plowed into the another fielder and twice in one game.

I can still the the,  -what the hell are you doing-,   look Miranda gave him after the second one.

[TwinsChupacabra]

The Twins organization as currently constructed does more wrong than right.  This is a direct reflection of the management and front office (who are so tied together, they can't be separated). 

It is super sad that next season will be more of the same.

Without change in the near future, only the most diehard fans will continue to enjoy this site or bother to go to a game.

Hope is the most important thing for a Twins fan.  Change is the only way to get it back.  

[dex8425]

On 9/26/2022 at 8:03 AM, bighat said:

It's truly evident the Twins don't care whether they win or lose a game at this point. No pride, no competitiveness, just going through the motions until they can all get the hell out of the clubhouse.

 

Except for Correa, who is playing himself into a huge payday next year with some big market team. 

[Minny505]

On 9/26/2022 at 5:51 AM, theBOMisthebomb said:

Fair enough and not totally unwarranted critiques of Miranda and Arraez. While you do back it with some numbers, it just seems odd to point the finger or even mention those two as any part of the problem. 

It was interesting that those were the primary lowlights in the summary.

A "slumping" rookie having "only" a 110 OPS+ since August 1? That's the lowlight on a team clicking on all cylinders, not a team that is on a major skid.

With the state of the team at the moment, Miranda being in a slump that still has him at a 110 OPS+ deserves to be a highlight!

Even rookies like Lars Newtbar and Jose Rodriguez have had 6-8 week slumps that saw them hitting worse than Miranda is now. 

Palacios, Lopez, catcher hitting, the outfield trainwreck-in-motion, and the generally poor defensive play, all seem more fitting for that section.

[Minny505]

It is a silver lining that we get to see Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland, and their 72 combined MLB starts, pitch this week. 

I feel like an earlier era of the Twins would have seen the equivalency of Archer, Bundy, Aaron Sanchez, and Derrick Rodriguez out there in this situation. 

[Blyleven2011]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:34 PM, RpR said:

Wallner on the field is a bull in a china shop

Two games in a row he nearly plowed into the another fielder and twice in one game.

I can still the the,  -what the hell are you doing-,   look Miranda gave him after the second one.

He has come as advertised , bat first , not a good defender  ...

Now it's up to coaching to make him better defensively  ..