Could Bailey Ober Move to the Bullpen?

[Cody Pirkl]

Bailey Ober has missed plenty of time due to injury in his professional career, including the majority of 2022. He’s finally made it back just a bit too late. He’ll finish the year in the Twins rotation, but perhaps we could ask, should he stay there long term?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins have a lot of returning starting pitching going into 2023, though none of their arms carry too much confidence to be leaned on. Keep your fingers crossed that they bring in a new name that isn’t another Bundy or Archer type, but doing so will push some arms out of the Opening Day rotation. Bailey Ober may be the top candidate to be bumped from a starting role.

Injury Concerns
Bailey Ober has missed tremendous time in his career due to injury. In 2021, he blew his previous career high in Innings Pitched out of the water with 108. After looking like he had built a foundation to push off of, he followed it up with just 60 innings to date so far in 2022. The fallout from his lost season is that even if healthy in 2023, the Twins will have to handle him with kid gloves yet again. A jump in innings from 60ish to the mid-100s seems like a bit of a stretch.

Also worth considering is that the likelihood that he’ll get healthier with age after having such a colorful injury history is incredibly low. Moving into a bullpen role where inning count won’t be an issue may be advantageous.

Maximizing Pitch Mix
Ober has a pitch mix that’s begging to be simplified, particularly in regard to his changeup. Each of his pitches gets a modest amount of whiffs, but the changeup is the one that has been crushed so far this season. The pitch has allowed a .391 BA and .522 SLG with expected numbers backing up these results. A move to the bullpen could mean he drops this pitch altogether.

Plenty of pitchers go this route, and in Ober’s case with two definitive breaking balls, his splits in short stints against lefties shouldn’t be a disaster. His fastball may also play up higher, as we often already see awkward swings due to his size and extension on the pitch. Adding any more velocity in a transition could turn it into a legitimate weapon.

The Clock is Ticking
It may be a surprise to some, but Ober is already 27 years old. Look no further than top prospect Matt Canterino for an example of how time can catch up. The Twins toyed with Canterino as a starting pitcher through recurring injuries until his elbow finally fully gave way. He’ll now miss much of the 2023 season and will return at nearly 26 years of age having never established an innings floor or reached the majors.

Ober is a less extreme example. He’s surpassed 100 innings in a season and made the majors, but it still seems like expecting a full starter's workload could become a futile effort very soon. He could similarly pull up with a significant injury one of these days if he continues to be pushed. A move to the bullpen doesn’t negate that chance, but it may pay off to change up what hasn’t worked to this point in his career while still providing value to the Twins. It also may take until 2024 if everything goes well for him to build up to even 150ish innings to be a starting pitcher, at which point he’ll be 29 years old. If he keeps losing seasons to injury as he nears his 30s, time is bound to eventually run out.

 Should the Twins actively look to move Ober to the bullpen next season? Not necessarily. He’s been relatively effective as a #3 or #4 starter and even that caliber of pitcher has been hard for the Twins to develop. That being said, in theory, the Twins have a returning staff of Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and eventually Chris Paddack with several younger pitchers from AAA in the mix. If the Twins can bring in another quality starting pitcher, somebody is going to lose out. There’s a case to be made that Ober is the prime option.

Would you agree with a move to the bullpen for Ober? Has he shown enough to get one last shot in the rotation?

 

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[mikelink45]

Not yet - Ober has come back and been efficient.  I would keep him as a started until he stops being effective.  

[DKrz56]

Hard no and I'd argue that his age makes the argument for not worrying jumping to 150 innings next year. He is a professional athlete with an offseason to prepare....IF he ends up having a healthy season next year just let him throw. 

[gman]

I believe Ober needs to stay in the rotation. His injury this year was not arm related. The Twins currently have 3-4 starters who may not be back in 2024. They need to add long term starting pitching depth to their team.

[RJA]

I think the Twins should leave him where he is until we see how the rotation turns out next year.  In the best case scenario, if Mahle, Gray, Maeda and Ryan are all healthy and looking sharp, and if they bring another starter (preferably left handed), and if Varland, Winder, and/or SWR are ready (notice all the ifs), then I might move him to the bullpen, but I would only do it if I felt he would be an asset to the bullpen, not due to injury history.  Frankly, there are so many uncertainties related to the whole pitching staff, that it is almost impossible to project anything.  Another interesting off season coming I think.

 

[Game7-91]

How to figure out Twins pitching staff 2023:

 

[roger]

Interesting.  Hopefully, the Twins realize that how they use starters means they must have at least two relievers who can throw 2 to 3 innings every third or fourth day.  Can Ober become a top member of the bullpen in this role?  I would think the answer is yes, but is this the best use of his arm?

[Doctor Gast]

Looking at 2023 rotation. 1st Mahle, we need to discover where his shoulder is at. If all he needs is rest, then all we need to do is dial him back from where he pitched fron CIN & hopefully he'll resemble a work horse. 2nd Gray, although Gray is a very good pitcher & was a work horse in his early days in his early OAK days, His yearly quality innings totals have steadily dropped since then. 3rd Ryan, a year after his rookie season I expect an up tick on his quality innings. 4th Maeda, he has never resembled a work horse &  has been on the IL for a while  so I expect Archer type innings from him & a lot of blow back from some fans. Where things sit right now Ober is #5

I really think we could really use a frontline  SP (Lopez-MIA or Marquez-CO) if they could be had. I've recommended that Ober could be used as long relief along with Winder, Varland, Sands or SWR. But if that happens, they'll disappear in the "Twilight Zone" & won't be hear of again until they really need a starter which will definitely happen as they'll continue to lose their SPs to injuries & ineffectiveness. And as you notice I didn't mention Paddack because he's a lost cause.

[TwinsDr2021]

He will be 28 years old on July 12th, if the Twins are still using kid gloves on him that is ridiculous. I hate to be cancelous but he is at the age they should use him until his arm falls off or he establishes that he is more than a 5 inning pitcher.

Would anybody really care if the Twins "abused" him ( you know pitched his average inning up a whole inning or let him pitch to dare I say 100 pitchers?) and he ended up with TJ surgery or hurt? I wouldn't, it would prove his body can't handle being a starting pitcher.

Sure they could move him to the pen, but it better be a role that is pitching 2 to 3 innings, he has proven he can dominate a lineup one time though.

[Brandon]

They could reverse Maeda him.  Have him piggyback off Maeda to start the season then around the all star break flip them and let Ober start and Maeda relieve.  This helps manage both pitchers innings as they come back from lost seasons.

[HerbieFan]

I think it depends on what you think of Winder and Varland.  I'd guess one of the three is the #5 starter, one is in the 'pen and one is at AAA as a starter.

[rwilfong86]

9 hours ago, gman said:

I believe Ober needs to stay in the rotation. His injury this year was not arm related. The Twins currently have 3-4 starters who may not be back in 2024. They need to add long term starting pitching depth to their team.

 

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Looking at 2023 rotation. 1st Mahle, we need to discover where his shoulder is at. If all he needs is rest, then all we need to do is dial him back from where he pitched fron CIN & hopefully he'll resemble a work horse. 2nd Gray, although Gray is a very good pitcher & was a work horse in his early days in his early OAK days, His yearly quality innings totals have steadily dropped since then. 3rd Ryan, a year after his rookie season I expect an up tick on his quality innings. 4th Maeda, he has never resembled a work horse &  has been on the IL for a while  so I expect Archer type innings from him & a lot of blow back from some fans. Where things sit right now Ober is #5

I really think we could really use a frontline  SP (Lopez-MIA or Marquez-CO) if they could be had. I've recommended that Ober could be used as long relief along with Winder, Varland, Sands or SWR. But if that happens, they'll disappear in the "Twilight Zone" & won't be hear of again until they really need a starter which will definitely happen as they'll continue to lose their SPs to injuries & ineffectiveness. And as you notice I didn't mention Paddack because he's a lost cause.

I fear Mahle may end up being injury prone as well. The fact the Twins still made the deal for him knowing he was damaged is still quite infuriating. Hopefully he can give them 30 starts next season and 150+ innings. Ober should definitely get a shot at a rotation spot.

[tony&rodney]

Let him loose with no pitch or inning limits. Ober will tell everyone what is possible through  his performance.

[Rosterman]

Spring training will be interesting. Both Ober and WInder will be on a rebuild (not to mention Maeda and Paddack). So someone being long relief may be a possibility.

The Twins could still try and get a #1 starter!

[dxpavelka]

And move Duran to the rotation....

[Karbo]

Depending on if Paddack can pitch I'd say move him to the pen. He should be able to pitch 2-3 innings and I think his "stuff" will play better there. Otherwise there are Winder (who IMO should be used in the pen), Varland, and possibly SWR. All would probably be better options than Bundy and Archer.

[Reptevia]

I notice no one is mentioning Dobnak or Smeltzer for rotation or bullpen. Are the Twins just going to release those two?

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

I notice no one is mentioning Dobnak or Smeltzer for rotation or bullpen. Are the Twins just going to release those two?

There is no reason to release Dobber.  He's got a guaranteed contract, and he's off the 40-man, so the Twins may as well pay the man, and if by some chance he returns to form, they can benefit.  If they release him and he bounces back, they're paying for some other team to reap the benefit.  (Other teams had the opportunity to assume the remainder of his multi-year contract, when he passed through waivers a week or so ago.)

[Cody Pirkl]

On 9/24/2022 at 8:00 AM, mikelink45 said:

Not yet - Ober has come back and been efficient.  I would keep him as a started until he stops being effective.  

He's probably currently slotted in at the #5 spot for next season. Let's say they bring in another legit starting pitcher for next season. Who should go to the pen instead of Ober from the group of Mahle, Maeda, Gray and Ryan?

[mikelink45]

18 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

He's probably currently slotted in at the #5 spot for next season. Let's say they bring in another legit starting pitcher for next season. Who should go to the pen instead of Ober from the group of Mahle, Maeda, Gray and Ryan?

I would guess that Ober would be the one to drop out, although so much depends on a questionable set of arms.  Maeda or Mahle could go to the pen if their recurring arm issues show up in the spring and Paddock when he comes back should at least start in the pen,  Some pitchers are more effective in the SP routine and it feels to me like that would be Ober.   I actually like Winder's potential more than Ober so the first question might be what if Winder pitches lights out and takes the rotation spot or do we go with a six man rotation again?  And where does Varland stand?  

At least this is an interesting question from some abundance while the BP still has Lopez and Pagan as twin pillars of frustration.  Who supports Duran?  Can Jax continue?  Does Thielbar have another year?  Does Alcala come back strong? This issue is where our extra SP have to fit in.  Is the team enamored with Hennriquez?  Will Moran continue to improve?  Does bringing in a FA RP work?  

RP is so sporadic that the Dodgers - the most complete team have now removed their closer - Kimbrel as the enter the playoffs.   Then the question has to be - if all 30 teams are struggling to get a good starting rotation how can they expect to find 10 (300) good RP?  This is the question of our current era.  Hader was traded and looked normal, Rogers has not settled in with either of his new teams to be the player we knew.  This FO has not shown an ability to hit on trade or FA RP - can that change?  Because they are not the only ones struggling with this.

The answer to me is more starter innings or piggy backing starters to fill the innings. 

[Minny505]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:21 AM, Cody Pirkl said:

He's probably currently slotted in at the #5 spot for next season. Let's say they bring in another legit starting pitcher for next season. Who should go to the pen instead of Ober from the group of Mahle, Maeda, Gray and Ryan?

I suspect the answer is none of them as one of the six SP (five under contract plus Rodon) will get injured in spring training and need a month or two for recovery.

Then another one goes down in week two.

Winder is already slotted in for a few starts by the fourth turn thru the rotation and Ober becomes a vital rotation cog at that point.