Baldelli will be back in 2023

[Nine of twelve]

49 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

 

I can agree the injuries make things more difficult but it isn’t a valid excuse for the inconsistency in the lineups we are seeing. 

Yes, it is.

[rwilfong86]

3 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Yes, it is.

Not really. When you know who you have, you can see who fits where. I can see some variation with players who are new, but everyone currently on the roster has been around for a bit now. 

[Nine of twelve]

44 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I’ve actually been told in this forum by someone liking your posts that, yes, there are games the Twins don’t care if they win or not. Because by not putting your best team on the field in some games gives you a better chance in other future games.

I don't know if it's me to whom you are referring, but I have said more than once that a team's objective for the regular season is to win as many games as possible, or at least to win as many games as necessary to qualify for the postseason.

No team will win every game. In fact, few teams win 60% of their games. But one of the keys to winning as many games as possible is to use your resources wisely. It's a bad idea to reduce the likelihood of future wins by overusing your best players in a blowout game that is very unlikely to be won. (Or, for that matter, in a blowout game that is very unlikely to be lost.)

So, yes, there are individual games where a team doesn't care if they lose because one step back can result in two steps forward.

By the way, this is one of the issues that surfaced regarding Pete Rose's gambling. If he had a significant amount of money riding on an individual game he would be more likely to harm the team's chances in future games by pulling out all the stops for that game. This works out to be the exact opposite of how a team should be run. Instead of managing for the best overall record he would be managing for a single game only.

[David Maro]

With this terrible news we were just told zero chance of signing a top line pitcher. Who would sign here with zero opportunity to get wins or a chance to win a Cy Young. Just like last night Ryan pulled ahead 4-3. Baseball is going to be a different game in 23 this FO and manager aren't up for the job.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, David Maro said:

With this terrible news we were just told zero chance of signing a top line pitcher. Who would sign here with zero opportunity to get wins or a chance to win a Cy Young. Just like last night Ryan pulled ahead 4-3. Baseball is going to be a different game in 23 this FO and manager aren't up for the job.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't know if it's me to whom you are referring, but I have said more than once that a team's objective for the regular season is to win as many games as possible, or at least to win as many games as necessary to qualify for the postseason.

No team will win every game. In fact, few teams win 60% of their games. But one of the keys to winning as many games as possible is to use your resources wisely. It's a bad idea to reduce the likelihood of future wins by overusing your best players in a blowout game that is very unlikely to be won. (Or, for that matter, in a blowout game that is very unlikely to be lost.)

So, yes, there are individual games where a team doesn't care if they lose because one step back can result in two steps forward.

By the way, this is one of the issues that surfaced regarding Pete Rose's gambling. If he had a significant amount of money riding on an individual game he would be more likely to harm the team's chances in future games by pulling out all the stops for that game. This works out to be the exact opposite of how a team should be run. Instead of managing for the best overall record he would be managing for a single game only.

There are a few angles to this. 

First, yes I agree, if a game is a real blowout early, go ahead and pull a few guys. I understand win probability of a seven run lead in the 5th inning, but I do not agree that that’s the time to remove your best players. Maybe wait until the 7th or 8th and another turn through the order? 

Then we can talk about platoon splits and rest days and those types of things. Larnach and Garlick might be a good platoon in left. Arraez needs to be an everyday leadoff hitter despite his platoon split. Sometimes your hitters are going to be at a disadvantage; that’s why winning low scoring games is important. But I won’t launch into a discussion about pitching here.

Start managing Buxton’s rest days the way it would have been in the past, with afternoon games and those getaway days. Same with catchers.

I don’t see that the Twins have improved on these things since the days TK managed. I recommend if this front office wants to get better, they get back to basics. 

[LastOnePicked]

23 hours ago, wabene said:

I like Rocco Baldelli and am glad he is returning. The team needs to improve in many of the areas mentioned such as the mental errors

Hey, if you like Baldelli as the Twins manager, good for you. I just cannot square these two statements.  To me, this is like saying, "I tore the airbags out of my car. I just wish the car was a little more safe to drive." 

[LastOnePicked]

We're keeping Baldelli because of past performance and the hope he'll return to form? This is the exact same mistake this organization made with Pagan, and it will have the exact same consequences.

Baldelli doesn't have it. There's just no getting around the sloppy play, the total lack of guts and the culture of excuses he's fostered here. If you've ever wondered if this organization prioritizes its "insider society" over winning championships, this decision should make this issue crystal clear.

Terrible decision. I predict 2023 will be another trainwreck season for this club.

[LastOnePicked]

20 hours ago, Squirrel said:

You should apply for the GM job so we will for sure win it all

Maybe we can put this playground logic to rest once and for all. No one expects any fan to fill these shoes. But fans are not in any way wrong to call for change, particularly after zero postseason success and two disastrous seasons. Many of the folks who are upset about this also predicted a rough season in 2022. And they've been proven absolutely right. The Rocco/FO defenders? Not so much.

[rwilfong86]

9 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

We're keeping Baldelli because of past performance and the hope he'll return to form? This is the exact same mistake this organization made with Pagan, and it will have the exact same consequences.

Baldelli doesn't have it. There's just no getting around the sloppy play, the total lack of guts and the culture of excuses he's fostered here. If you've ever wondered if this organization prioritizes its "insider society" over winning championships, this decision should make this issue crystal clear.

Terrible decision. I predict 2023 will be another trainwreck season for this club.

I wouldn't be surprised if 2023 brings 100 losses

[Rosterman]

Rocco is part of the team.

Be interesting to see if adjustments are made in coaching. Remember we had new guys on the bench and as the primary hitting coach. We lsot as many games because of hitting as pitching.

Medical staff is an organizational thing, from the staff down in Florida to the major league staff and everyone at all the minor league outlets. Right now, all minor league players are getting off-season guides. Soon the major league guys, too. Strength and conditioning ahs become a major part of each organization, compared to players seeking out that help individually in the distant past.

I was frustrated by the lack of letting rotation arms go further. Even yesterday, Ryan leaving after 69 pitches and cour innings in one of his final sarts of the season. A rotation arm is going to give up runs. They need to adjust to that next time thru the order. They need to face hitters who have gotten hits off of them in the game, again. We saw the weakness. No innings eater in the rotation. ALl starters frontline got a decent number of starts and our secondary starters got oppotunities that will set them towards a career path next season. Duran is getting to close. Will he be durable?

It's hard to think that the Twins for the majority of the season were where Cleveland is now, a comfortable lead in a division in which the first place team might be the only one with a winning record. The collapse was hard. To go from such high hopes to basically seeing a St. Paul Saints line-up at Target Field in the last few games of the season was...sad.

Bundy, Archer, Sanchez, Fulmer, Leon, Correa will free up a lot of payroll. Not much in the arbitration class. They need a #1 starter, a right-handed bench bat, a catcher better than what they fielded this year to supplement Jeffers, and have to answer questions about the future at shoprtstop (Lee? Lewis?) and sort out the outfield.

Of course, Baldelli will have lots of paperwork to review.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Not really. When you know who you have, you can see who fits where. I can see some variation with players who are new, but everyone currently on the roster has been around for a bit now. 

So, wait, you didn't include the Yankees in your post about consistent lineups because they have injuries, but the Twins having injuries isn't an excuse for Rocco. So it's an excuse for the Yankees, but not for Rocco? I fail to follow that logic.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Maybe we can put this playground logic to rest once and for all. No one expects any fan to fill these shoes. But fans are not in any way wrong to call for change, particularly after zero postseason success and two disastrous seasons. Many of the folks who are upset about this also predicted a rough season in 2022. And they've been proven absolutely right. The Rocco/FO defenders? Not so much.

Except the "Rocco/FO defenders" also predicted a rough season in 2022. Pretty much everyone did. Weird agrument here. "Hey, we all expected this to be a rough year, but those who don't like the FO and/or Rocco are clearly right even though they said the same thing as the people who aren't calling for firings." And I'm no longer a Rocco/FO defender. The lack of adaption with the pitching strategy as we got late into the year would've been enough for me to fire them if I were the team owner. But there weren't many people anywhere predicting great success for this team. So just about everyone was right there.

[rwilfong86]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

So, wait, you didn't include the Yankees in your post about consistent lineups because they have injuries, but the Twins having injuries isn't an excuse for Rocco. So it's an excuse for the Yankees, but not for Rocco? I fail to follow that logic.

They're an exception, because even with their injuries, their best player has played pretty much every game. They've built the lineup around Judge. The Twins best player, Buxton, has been playing injured or on the IL pretty much the whole season. Even with injuries, it isn't impossible for the Twins to keep a consistent regular lineup with who they have rather than mixing and matching or Rocco pulling names out of a hat. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, rwilfong86 said:

They're an exception, because even with their injuries, their best player has played pretty much every game. They've built the lineup around Judge. The Twins best player, Buxton, has been playing injured or on the IL pretty much the whole season. Even with injuries, it isn't impossible for the Twins to keep a consistent regular lineup with who they have rather than mixing and matching or Rocco pulling names out of a hat. 

Yeah, to me that just says "they're an exception because they don't fit my narrative. Sorry.

[rwilfong86]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Except the "Rocco/FO defenders" also predicted a rough season in 2022. Pretty much everyone did. Weird agrument here. "Hey, we all expected this to be a rough year, but those who don't like the FO and/or Rocco are clearly right even thought they said the same thing as the people who aren't calling for firings." And I'm not longer a Rocco/FO defender. The lack of adaption with the pitching strategy as we got late into the year would've been enough for me to fire them if I were the team owner. But there weren't many people anywhere predicting great success for this team. So just about everyone was right there.

I think you're right that no one expected them to be a contender, but the hot start to the season was a mirage that led many to believe the team was better than what they are. I remember after they went on their first hot stretch several media outlets picked them to run away with the Central. 

[rwilfong86]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, to me that just says "they're an exception because they don't fit my narrative. Sorry.

If the Yankees didn't get such a huge lead in their division before their team got the injury bug they could very well be in the same spot the Twins are, that and the fact that Judge is single handed pulling them to the finish line. 

[Jester]

Baldelli will be back in 2023........

BARF.  Looks like I'll be spending my money elsewhere again next year......

 

 

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, rwilfong86 said:

If the Yankees didn't get such a huge lead in their division before their team got the injury bug they could very well be in the same spot the Twins are, that and the fact that Judge is single handed pulling them to the finish line. 

That's all fine and well, but doesn't at all explain why you state that having injuries isn't an excuse for inconsistent lineups now for the Twins, but it is an excuse for the Yankees. You can't have it both ways. You've said the injuries aren't an excuse for Rocco and the lineup should be consistent everyday. Then you say the Yankees can't have the same lineup everyday because they have injuries. You can't have it both ways. Comparing the Twins to a fully healthy Dodgers lineup that features 8 current or former all stars but refusing to compare them to a similarly injured Yankee lineup is simply trying to force things into your narrative.

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Except the "Rocco/FO defenders" also predicted a rough season in 2022. Pretty much everyone did. Weird agrument here. "Hey, we all expected this to be a rough year, but those who don't like the FO and/or Rocco are clearly right even though they said the same thing as the people who aren't calling for firings." And I'm no longer a Rocco/FO defender. The lack of adaption with the pitching strategy as we got late into the year would've been enough for me to fire them if I were the team owner. But there weren't many people anywhere predicting great success for this team. So just about everyone was right there.

Then what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks are we all arguing about here? ?

Based on your read of the predictions, shouldn't we all be ready for a change? I mean, if the consensus was that this team would not contend, and they are not contenders, why is the fanbase split?

Or let me put it more honestly: I simply don't understand what happened this season that would warrant Rocco's return in 2023. Maybe that's just what I need to admit. What are some of you seeing that I can't see? What about this team seems improved? What has Rocco helped to develop here that gets us closer to a title? Or is it just fear of change that makes firing the manager seem scary?

[chpettit19]

@rwilfong86

Here's the Mets and Twins lineups for the last 2 weeks. The Mets have had the same hitters available during that time so that's why I chose that stretch.

You named the Mets as a super consistent lineup that the Twins should emulate. I'm not seeing it. They have 7 guys who basically play everyday. 2 of them are always in the same spot in the order. McNeil has hit in 5 different lineup spots in that time period. The Twins have basically 9 guys who play almost every day. I'm not seeing your point come to life in the actual data here.

[rwilfong86]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

That's all fine and well, but doesn't at all explain why you state that having injuries isn't an excuse for inconsistent lineups now for the Twins, but it is an excuse for the Yankees. You can't have it both ways. You've said the injuries aren't an excuse for Rocco and the lineup should be consistent everyday. Then you say the Yankees can't have the same lineup everyday because they have injuries. You can't have it both ways. Comparing the Twins to a fully healthy Dodgers lineup that features 8 current or former all stars but refusing to compare them to a similarly injured Yankee lineup is simply trying to force things into your narrative.

The Yankees aren't inconsistent with their lineup the way the Twins are. They typically have the same guys at the top of the order and bottom of the order and play the same guys in the same defensive positions. Look at their box scores for the last week for example. Their lineup for 5 of their past 7 games is as follows:

1- Judge, rf

2- Rizzo, 1b

3- Torres, 2b

4- Donaldson, 3b

5- Stanton DH

The other 2 games put Stanton batting 2nd. 

 

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Then what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks are we all arguing about here? ?

Based on your read of the predictions, shouldn't we all be ready for a change? I mean, if the consensus was that this team would not contend, and they are not contenders, why is the fanbase split?

Or let me put it more honestly: I simply don't understand what happened this season that would warrant Rocco's return in 2023. Maybe that's just what I need to admit. What are some of you seeing that I can't see? What about this team seems improved? What has Rocco helped to develop here that gets us closer to a title? Or is it just fear of change that makes firing the manager seem scary?

At the end of the day we don’t make the call so people are going to side with whatever decision is made. There’s been a lot of revisionist history being written on this site lately. The biggest culprit being Royce Lewis was projected to be a major impact player this year. 

I don’t know if deferring back to FanGraphs projections in March is some sort of defense mechanism to make people feel better that the Twins are living up to an 82 win season? And casually ignoring that they were a 10 game over .500 team in late May, leading the division until a few weeks ago. 

[rwilfong86]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

@rwilfong86

Here's the Mets and Twins lineups for the last 2 weeks. The Mets have had the same hitters available during that time so that's why I chose that stretch.

You named the Mets as a super consistent lineup that the Twins should emulate. I'm not seeing it. They have 7 guys who basically play everyday. 2 of them are always in the same spot in the order. McNeil has hit in 5 different lineup spots in that time period. The Twins have basically 9 guys who play almost every day. I'm not seeing your point come to life in the actual data here.

The data shows Mets 1-4 are practically always the same and it has been that way almost all season. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Then what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks are we all arguing about here? ?

Based on your read of the predictions, shouldn't we all be ready for a change? I mean, if the consensus was that this team would not contend, and they are not contenders, why is the fanbase split?

Or let me put it more honestly: I simply don't understand what happened this season that would warrant Rocco's return in 2023. Maybe that's just what I need to admit. What are some of you seeing that I can't see? What about this team seems improved? What has Rocco helped to develop here that gets us closer to a title? Or is it just fear of change that makes firing the manager seem scary?

When it comes to just Rocco, I think the argument can be made that he wasn't given talented enough players to get much more out of them than this. The reason I think most of us didn't expect great things was because we didn't think the team was that talented. To then turn around and blame Rocco for not getting more out of a not very talented team doesn't totally compute. 

Further developing untalented players is an interesting manager grading point. I mean are there a lot of managers out there that have taken bad prospects throughout their minor league careers and turned them into highly successful major leaguers when they were forced into big league action? A lot of managers out there turning Dobnak and Smeltzer types into Maddux and Kofax? It's part of why I don't think managers have a huge effect on things.

I think Rocco is just another manager. And the guy who replaces him will far more than likely be just another manager. And the guy who replaces him will also very likely be just another manager. I think there's a tendency to get too caught up on managers. There's very few great ones, and very few terrible ones. It's why we see managers go from "manager of the year" to managing a sub .500 team all the time. Dave Roberts manages pretty darn similarly to Rocco. Both heavily weigh analytics in their decisions. Is Roberts why the Dodgers win so many games? Or is he just another manager, but happens to have a roster full of all stars, MVPs, and Cy Young winners?

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

The data shows Mets 1-4 are practically always the same and it has been that way almost all season. 

It doesn't show that about the Mets, actually. Maybe you're not reading the data correctly.

It does show the Twins 1-4 are practically always the same and it has been that way almost all season. You can see why I'm confused here, right? When the team was healthy playing against right handed pitchers the top 5 was almost always some form of Arraez-Buxton-Correa-Polanco-Kepler. So, again, I'm just not seeing your argument play out in the reality of things.

And, no the Mets 1-4 wasn't almost always the same as I already mention Jeff McNeil, who is listed in the 4 spot there, hit in 5(!) different lineup spots in just those 13 games. I mean you're provably wrong here, yet still trying to force this into your narrative. 

I provided you 13 Mets games. They used 13 different lineups in those games. They didn't use the same lineup twice at any point in those 13 games. There is no repeat lineup in 13 games and you're still trying to argue they're consistent. It blows my mind.

Oh, and the Mets manager is Buck Showalter. I think most people would put him in the "old school" segment of managers. It's almost like this isn't really a Rocco problem, but it makes people feel better to blame him for the Twins just not being very talented right now.

[rwilfong86]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

It also shows the Twins 1-4 are practically always the same and it has been that way almost all season. You can see why I'm confused here, right? When the team was healthy playing against right handed pitchers the top 5 was almost always some form of Arraez-Buxton-Correa-Polanco-Kepler. So, again, I'm just not seeing your argument play out in the reality of things.

And, no the Mets 1-4 wasn't almost always the same as I already mention Jeff McNeil, who is listed in the 4 spot there, hit in 5(!) different lineup spots in just those 13 games. I mean you're provably wrong here, yet still trying to force this into your narrative. 

With the exception of McNeil, 1,2 and 4 are pretty much the same order as they've been all season. Have you watched many Mets games this season? I'm guessing not. Go look at a random box score from any game earlier this season and you will see the Mets lineup is pretty much the same. Nimmo is gonna be hitting leadoff, Lindor will be 2nd and Alonso is cleanup. They don't randomly throw Alonso leadoff, bat Escobar 2nd, Marte third and Lindor cleanup.  Debating this further is is pointless. You say my data doesn't fit the narrative and I am saying the same about yours. So I'm done. Have a wonderful afternoon.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

With the exception of McNeil, 1,2 and 4 are pretty much the same order as they've been all season. Have you watched many Mets games this season? I'm guessing not. Go look at a random box score from any game earlier this season and you will see the Mets lineup is pretty much the same. Nimmo is gonna be hitting leadoff, Lindor will be 2nd and Alonso is cleanup. They don't randomly throw Alonso leadoff, bat Escobar 2nd, Marte third and Lindor cleanup.  Debating this further is is pointless. You say my data doesn't fit the narrative and I am saying the same about yours. So I'm done. Have a wonderful afternoon.

Like this literally blows my mind. 13 different lineups in 13 games and you want to tell me they're consistent. Like you literally couldn't be more wrong about the last 2 weeks. When they're fighting for a division title, no less. Like they're doing everything they can to win as many games down the stretch as possible, they have an old school manager in Buck Showalter, and they still had 13 different lineups in 13 super important games. You're flat out, provably wrong.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

With the exception of McNeil, 1,2 and 4 are pretty much the same order as they've been all season. Have you watched many Mets games this season? I'm guessing not. Go look at a random box score from any game earlier this season and you will see the Mets lineup is pretty much the same. Nimmo is gonna be hitting leadoff, Lindor will be 2nd and Alonso is cleanup. They don't randomly throw Alonso leadoff, bat Escobar 2nd, Marte third and Lindor cleanup.  Debating this further is is pointless. You say my data doesn't fit the narrative and I am saying the same about yours. So I'm done. Have a wonderful afternoon.

Lindor has hit either 2nd or 3rd all year.
Nimmo has hit 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 9th.
McNeil has hit in literally every lineup spot this season.
Alonso has hit 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
Marte has hit 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 9.

I mean come on. Maybe you haven't watched quite as many Mets games as you think you have...

[rwilfong86]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Like this literally blows my mind. 13 different lineups in 13 games and you want to tell me they're consistent. Like you literally couldn't be more wrong about the last 2 weeks. When they're fighting for a division title, no less. Like they're doing everything they can to win as many games down the stretch as possible, they have an old school manager in Buck Showalter, and they still had 13 different lineups in 13 super important games. You're flat out, provably wrong.

See previous post. 1,2 and 4 are nearly always the same. I'm not sure what is so hard to see about that or how that is "provably wrong". They aren't 100% the same, but the no team will run the same lineup on the field 162 games. And nice job editing your previous post.