Reasons for hope in 2023

[ScottyB]

Even at a $120M base for payroll, we will still have a huge amount of money.  This year’s payroll was in the ballpark of $160M.  Take away $35M for Correa, $9M for Sanchez, $10M for Sano, $8M if we trade Kepler,  and the $6M we sent to SD in the Rogers trade and that takes $68M off the books, bringing us under the $100M mark. We have lots of young players making well under $1M on the roster. (off the top of my head - Miranda, Gordon, Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Celestino, Ober, Ryan, Winder, Varland, Duran, Moran, Megill, Jax, and Wallner and probably others that I’m not thinking of). So we still have plenty of money to play with.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, Irishman said:

Minnesota Twins - avg 22,222 fans per game, and ranking 20th in MLB in total attendance.

These players need to stay healthy.

If FO want fans to come watch more Twins games, then they need to start winning games.  

 

 

Should it be a surprise that the Twins are trying to run their team like Tampa(28th), Oakland (30) or Cleveland (25) and they end up with the same type of attendance issues?

First fans want wins, but they also want to watch a good product of baseball and guys they know. The Twins were terrible in 21 (strike against), they play a terrible game of baseball to watch (strike against), the biggest names this year were a guy leaving after the year and a guy that has been hurt most of his career(strike against). Also it tough to get to know the young guys if you don't have cable tv.

So my assumption is attendance will not improve next year, coming off an epic collapse, Correa leaving, manager coming back, and no streaming deal that I know of. Selling hope with no get to know them advertising.

[FrankQuilicy]

On 9/22/2022 at 10:12 AM, Cap'n Piranha said:

As we tick off the last few meaningless games of the 2022 season, attention turns to 2023.  With a little bit of Falvinelli self-reflection, I think a very successful 2023 is well within the realm of possibility.  Here are 6 reasons why.

1. The starting rotation should (hopefully) be at worst solid, if not a strength.  With Gray and Ryan returning, the Twins have 2 starters with sub 4 ERAs--while advanced stats are a little more cautious, both are still seen as solid options.  Add in the expected return of Maeda, who when last healthy pitched like a borderline ace, reasonable progression from Varland, Winder, and Ober, the potential emergence of SWR, and a potential return from injury for Mahle and Paddack, and the Twins have 9 options who profile as legitimate MLB starters.  That is more depth than the Twins have had in the rotation in a long time; are there still questions, particularly around health?  Absolutely.  But there is also hope.
2. The starting lineup should (hopefully) be filled with above average hitters from just about top to bottom. Jeffers at C, Kiriloff at 1B, Polanco at 2B, Lewis at SS, Miranda at 3B, Buxton at CF, Wallner/Larnach at the corners, and Arraez at DH; that's a very solid lineup that should be able to put up some runs.  Add in Gordon as depth, and the top 10 for the Twins, on paper, looks like a first division outfit.  Everyone will need to stay healthy, which is a very big ask, but if that happens, the Twins should score runs in bunches.
3. The bullpen has (hopefully) a very solid foundation.  Duran is all-world; 1st in velo, 13th in ERA, 3rd in xFIP.  Theilbar and Jax have been very solid contributors, and Alcala should hopefully be back, bringing yet more velo to the pen, Moran has shown some flashes, and if he can get the walks under control, he'll be a real weapon.  Lopez is unfortunately a major question mark, and potential liability, but there is reason to hope that the Twins already have 4-5 solid options in the pen, 3 of whom have average velo above 95.  That's the best talent base for a pen the Twins have had in quite some time.
4. Falvine should (hopefully) avoid some of the bad decisions that have plagued the last 2 seasons.  For two years in a row, Falvine have acquired a bullpen arm, installed that arm as closer, and watched said pitcher absolutely torpedo the season.  If they didn't know before, they should know now; the bullpen cannot be allowed to sink the season through lack of options, especially if starters are going to be inning restricted.  I think Falvey and Levine are both intelligent, and if they're humble enough to admit mistakes, I have every confidence they will avoid repeating them.
5. The injury luck should (hopefully) be better.  I mean, it can't be worse, right?  Right?
6. The payroll should (hopefully) allow the Twins to make one, or maybe even two big moves in FA.  According to Spotrac, the Twins have $118M on the books for next year; however, that includes Correa, Bundy, Archer, and Sano.  If none of those players return, that $118M drops precipitously, to $48M; if the Twins are also able to move Kepler's contract, that drops below $40M.  Between arb raises and rookie-scale deals, the Twins should easily be able to keep the payroll below $100M (this all changes if Correa opts in, of course).  That's plenty of room to make a big move.

I can tell you gave this some very deep, optimistic thought props to you.  on point #1, before i say the rotation is solid i need to see if and when Maeda is coming back. Paddack...is cooked. Mahle, may be cooked too, we need more info. that leaves Gray, Ryan, Ober, (if he can stay on the field) and either Winder, Varland, A.Sanchez, or somebody yet to make a major League appearance. ...This is not a good rotation. The league figured out Winder in a month and they will with Varland too. If i am Mr Fantastic Falvine, i STILL need a front line starter.

on your point #2 are you serious? the lineup? let's go through this point by point. 2- Catcher.....Jeffers has to be the #1 guy...after that..theres NOTHING. If they are smart they jump after Sean Murphy of the A's. Let jeffers back him up and learn how to catch 100-110 games a year. 3- 1st base Kiriloff is on the roster until he has another wrist surgery but Arraez starts. 4- 2nd base is of course Polanco until he needs another ankle surgery, then some combo of Gordon, Arraez and god i hope we dont have to see another minor leaguer. 5-3rd base Urshela...unless he's hurt and that doesnt happen often, why mess with him? 6 shortstop. IMHO Do what it takes to bring CC back. There is NOBODY in this organization coming any time soon. an 8 year deal is reasonable at whatever cost. Lewis will not be healthy for opening day and when he is he wont be playing much shortstop. The depth of this team will have to come from the flexibility of Gordon, Arraez, Lewis, and Miranda. I will jump ahead and say an outfield of Buxton, Kepler, and some combo of Celestino, Cave, Larnack, and Garlick could maybe okay providing Buxton stays healthy (NOT). i am anxious to see how Kepler does with no shifting allowed. DH- is Miranda every day unless hes in at 3rd or 1st. his defense blows.

So that said Falvey get busy after a front line starter, a catcher, and if not Correa, then some shortstop better than  Palacios. Jus

[FrankQuilicy]

Just now, FrankQuilicy said:

I can tell you gave this some very deep, optimistic thought props to you.  on point #1, before i say the rotation is solid i need to see if and when Maeda is coming back. Paddack...is cooked. Mahle, may be cooked too, we need more info. that leaves Gray, Ryan, Ober, (if he can stay on the field) and either Winder, Varland, A.Sanchez, or somebody yet to make a major League appearance. ...This is not a good rotation. The league figured out Winder in a month and they will with Varland too. If i am Mr Fantastic Falvine, i STILL need a front line starter.

on your point #2 are you serious? the lineup? let's go through this point by point. 2- Catcher.....Jeffers has to be the #1 guy...after that..theres NOTHING. If they are smart they jump after Sean Murphy of the A's. Let jeffers back him up and learn how to catch 100-110 games a year. 3- 1st base Kiriloff is on the roster until he has another wrist surgery but Arraez starts. 4- 2nd base is of course Polanco until he needs another ankle surgery, then some combo of Gordon, Arraez and god i hope we dont have to see another minor leaguer. 5-3rd base Urshela...unless he's hurt and that doesnt happen often, why mess with him? 6 shortstop. IMHO Do what it takes to bring CC back. There is NOBODY in this organization coming any time soon. an 8 year deal is reasonable at whatever cost. Lewis will not be healthy for opening day and when he is he wont be playing much shortstop. The depth of this team will have to come from the flexibility of Gordon, Arraez, Lewis, and Miranda. I will jump ahead and say an outfield of Buxton, Kepler, and some combo of Celestino, Cave, Larnack, and Garlick could maybe okay providing Buxton stays healthy (NOT). i am anxious to see how Kepler does with no shifting allowed. DH- is Miranda every day unless hes in at 3rd or 1st. his defense blows.

So that said Falvey get busy after a front line starter, a catcher, and if not Correa, then some shortstop better than  Palacios. Jus

just kidding.  

Unless someone sees the obvious and overhauls the training staff the injuries will continue to embarrass us. Hi Falvey!

And lastly the payroll. Is not an issue because i do not trust Derek Falvey and I am convinced he has an open checkbook and is scrimping the budget to make his Christmas bonus fatter. I hope he blows royally and gets fired before the all star break 

[FrankQuilicy]

On 9/23/2022 at 4:40 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Great comments on this thread - both pro and con re optimism for next season. Here’s another two cents if the Pohlads truly want to contend next season: 

1. The starting staff will need at least one solid (i.e. reliable #3 type - sorry we don’t get #1’s or #2’s) FA addition. Not sure who that will be, but there are too many ifs among the nine players mentioned to be comfortable. Mahle and/or Maeda were/was supposed to be that guy, but both should only be looked at as pleasant upside at this point until proven otherwise. FA Budget: $15MM if they go with one addition, $20-25MM if two additions.

2. Same essentially with the relief staff, where I expect at least two, hopefully three, additions to the core of Duran, Jax and Thielbar. Lopez was supposed to be in that group, but obviously cannot be included. This is the most important area for additions: a deep shutdown pen given the way the starting staff is built is a must. FA Budget: $15-20MM. No reason to layup here.

3. Re position players, expect Correa, Sanchez, Urshela, Kepler, and Sano not to be back, leaving us with three holes: SS, C, and RH OF.  Don’t expect big bucks to be spent on any of the three as SS is a one year hole at most with Lewis and Lee in the wings and Polacios a cheap stopgap option, C is viewed, rightly or wrongly, as a 40-50% job, and the overall OF depth (even with Kepler gone) is solid. Of the three, the biggest need, and where the most money could be spent, is probably C and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Sanchez is brought back. FA Budget: $10MM - $25MM depending on the SS approach and the depth of the C market.

4. With the lineup described above and a mid-market budget of $125MM give or take, significant improvement in four areas will be required to contend: playing consistent strong fundamental baseball, young players continuing to improve, health, and above average in-game coaching (i.e. managerial decisions lead to net more wins than losses). Any objective assessment of our current coaching staff would lead to the conclusion that substantive, wholesale changes need to be made. Of all the moves ownership could make, this is the most important - if the current staff starting with Rocco is left in place, expectations should be tempered significantly. 

So, in sum, there is certainly reason for optimism given our current core players and available FA budget. A handful of key additions and a new coaching staff could make this team fun to watch into October next season.

 

they ain't going to contend man....come on!

[Old fox]

There are very few teams that play above the level of expectations of the manager! Rocco needs to get above the level of ho-hum expectations. His post game interviews are atrocious bad “Rocco reports only on things about past events of games” and never about leadership expectations or changes for future games. 

[stringer bell]

While I am disappointed with the finish of 2022, I don't think the Twins were that far from being a playoff team. They are the only team in MLB with a positive run differential and a losing record. They wore down and were using a majority of Triple A players in their lineups in the second half of September and the five days of October. 

The Twins allowed fewer runs than the mean in 2022 despite having two of their three most frequent starters being Archer and Bundy. Next season Bailey Ober will come back after a strong close of his season, Mahle and Mahle figure to return along with Gray and Ryan, so the rotation should be better. The bullpen at the start of the season included Joe Smith, Tyler Duffey and Pagan. They figure to be far better in the 'pen with Duran established, Jax, Thielbar, Lopez and with Alcala returning. In summary, I think the pitching will be competitive.

Some time around the All-Star game, I was wondering how the Twins would be able to fit all the quality major league position players on their roster. That included Jeffers, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, Correa, Urshela, Gordon, Larnach, Buxton, Celestino, Garlick and Kepler. Most likely Sanchez and Correa will leave as free agents and they'll have to be replaced. While that offense never performed up to reasonable expectations, there is talent there. IMHO enough talent to win a majority of games with average to above average pitching. Defensively, the team is mostly pretty good with its front-line players and less so with the next wave. I think that Miranda can be adequate at third or first, Arraez is decent at second base and acceptable at first and that Nick Gordon is a better defender in the outfield than he is in the infield.

Injuries hurt the Twins in 2022, without question. Some of their best talent comes saddled with the term "injury prone" or having a chronic injury. I guess I respect medical professionals enough to believe their opinions on recovery and ability to perform and that information will be available to the front office. Continuing to believe guys will be available over the course of a full season when they haven't been able to do that is a recipe for continuing disappointment. A change in philosophy has to be part of the front office's plan from now on. I know this is easier said than done. A magic wand can't be waved to make Buxton, Kirilloff and a host of pitchers durable, but the risk/reward on acquiring players needs to be reevaluated. Some of this blight of injuries is bad luck and if that continues, Falvey, Levine and Baldelli may well find themselves looking for work somewhere else. In the scope of this topic, I'll say, probably without any real reason to believe it, that the Twins injuries will not be as pervasive as in 2021 or 2022. 

Finally, concerning the front office and the manager. These are smart youngish guys who had a blush of success in 2019 and 2020 (if you want to count the shortened pandemic season), but two years of losing baseball puts them all on the spot. They need to improve the product on the field and adjust some of their policies, particularly on the medical side. On the field, I think they need more speed and more bat-to-ball skills. In this era, strikeouts will continue to happen and every fan base will continue to be frustrated about their inability to advance runners and hit with runners in scoring position, having better bat-to-ball skills will help. They will need to figure out shortstop and probably acquire a catcher to share time with Ryan Jeffers. I also think that adding another starter better than Gray and Ryan should be done, but it seems the front office isn't convinced of that. The brain trust is smart enough to make good moves to improve this team. I'll add one specific comment about Rocco--I don't think he's the primary reason the club has had a losing record the last two years, but I don't think he's the primary reason they won over 100 in '19.

[Blyleven2011]

On 9/30/2022 at 7:13 AM, FrankQuilicy said:

they ain't going to contend man....come on!

Contend hasn't ever been used in the FO's , Rocco or owners vocabulary ...

Their choice of word is competitive  ...

Until they choose to change their philosophy from owner on down we will always be just competitive ...

Do I have hope for 2023 , I always have hope  as I live for opening day and the world series  and everything in-between  ...

It's not whether you win the game  , it's about how you play the game  ...