If You Want Bold and Aggressive Moves, You've Got to Live with the Risk

[frightwig]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Imagine if they had done nothing! 

Paddock is different than Mahle, as they paid very little for him because of the risk. People seem to forget that

 

I think they also were able to get Mahle without giving up any top prospects (just former 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks, and only Encarnacion-Strand is having a really solid year, in AA) because they were aware that he'd been having shoulder problems. The Twins evidently like to target pitchers with questionable health, either recent injuries or surgeries, because they can get talent at a discount, hoping that the pitcher can avoid a more serious injury in the near future or they can catch the guy on the rebound. They see it as a market inefficiency. It's a risk, but a deliberate part of the plan.

I get why that would be appealing to a front office that is trying to build a rotation on a mid-level budget, and hasn't had great pitching prospects ready to come up from the farm, but going after a Mahle like that isn't bold and aggressive. Getting Jorge Lopez, a failed SP who had 3 big months in the pen, but had been getting hammered in July, by trading last year's 3rd round pick and a teenage lottery ticket, isn't really so bold, either. That's taking a flyer on a couple of guys with red flags and hoping for the best.

I'd like to see the Twins make a bold and aggressive move to improve the rotation next year. But that would mean spending more money, or trading top prospects or a player in the lineup with real value. They usually shy away from big longterm FA deals (the Correa deal essentially ensured that he could stay for one year if he delivered value, or might stay for 2-3 years if he fell short), and it's hard to see them trading top prospects or a good veteran like Polanco, either.

 

 

[SwainZag]

18 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

18 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

They had the 23rd ranked farm system on mlb.com at the mid season mark. Then traded away 4 of their top 5 draft selections in the 2021 draft in the last calendar year. Not even a little gutted? 

I’d bet they’re no more than 20th in 2023 preseason rankings. 

The only prospect they traded in their Top 20 from 2021 was Petty.  Ryan, Duran, Miranda, and Winder all graduated off the Top 10.  Martin and Balazovic both dropped pretty considerably in their rankings.  

Trades did not gut their farm system.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

They had the 23rd ranked farm system on mlb.com at the mid season mark. Then traded away 4 of their top 5 draft selections in the 2021 draft in the last calendar year. Not even a little gutted? 

I’d bet they’re no more than 20th in 2023 preseason rankings. 

So, higher than before the trade? 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The farm system isn't close to gutted. Not even a little.

I think that last sentence indicates that you don't agree that risk is real, frankly. Of course the fans want a good team, so does the FO and ownership. Sometimes you take chances and they don't work. 

They spent weeks/months playing their 5-9th best OFers, often all three at once. 

The farm system will be one of the worst ranked in baseball. It's gutted.

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

The only prospect they traded in their Top 20 from 2021 was Petty.  Ryan, Duran, Miranda, and Winder all graduated off the Top 10.  Martin and Balazovic both dropped pretty considerably in their rankings.  

Trades did not gut their farm system.

Farm systems are expected to graduate guys. That's why farms exist. The farm was "okay" before Balazovic dropped off a cliff and Martin took another step back. Once the Twins got to the trade deadline they had exactly zero elite prospects to bargain with, other than perhaps Brooks Lee, who went 8th overall (which would normally be out of the top 100) and had yet to play a single game in the minors. The Twins traded away what looked like some of their strongest assets (because they had to) at the deadline.

The Twins had some guys take big steps forward since, but there's still a chasm between the elites and the C level prospects in the system.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

All with a season left. That is the reasoning they expressed when they ‘had’ to trade Berrios and Rodgers. One season left of contract/control. Exactly. We will see. Consistent or not?

I see the Braves didn’t trade Freeman last year and are doing just fine. He helped them win a World Series and the Braves moved on. I see the Yankees didn’t have to trade Judge this year. Hmmmmm.  

Ignoring some context here, aren't we? The Braves weren't in the middle of a last place season when they didn't trade Freeman. And when they weren't able to bring him back they instead traded multiple top prospects to pay Matt Olsen instead. Is that the route you'd like the Twins to take instead? Don't trade Berrios during a lost season then let him walk and trade Royce Lewis for a lesser version of Berrios? Not exactly a strategy I'd say would be likely to turn out well for the Twins. Hmmmmm

And comparing the Yankees to the Twins when it comes to trading guys they can't afford is just completely and utterly disingenuous. The Twins offered Berrios what they thought he was worth. He said no and they knew they couldn't afford him so they traded him. The Yankees know they can afford Judge, but they made a bet that he'd be hurt again, or at least not perform at an MVP level, so they could get him for cheaper. Judge won that bet and now they'll have to pay him an insane amount. 

Not to mention that comparing Berrios and Rogers to 2 MVPs is a little ridiculous to start with.

[Vanimal46]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, higher than before the trade? 

I was trying to be nice… And perhaps Brooks Lee gets a bump to raise the ranking. Still, not even a little gutted?

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I was trying to be nice… And perhaps Brooks Lee gets a bump to raise the ranking. Still, not even a little gutted?

By graduation almost entirely. But not gutted, no. If they wanted, their entire infield could be rookies or second year players next year. Plus Wallner and Larnach in the outfield. The pitching staff could be sixty percent second year players in the starters. I think it's graduation that is effecting the ranking.

[MABB1959]

How do you stay so positive and hopeful for the future?

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I would invest in rodon  as he is a needed left handed starter the rotation needs , did he land on the IL list this year with San Francisco  ???

This kind of proves the axiom "every pitcher is injury prone until he isn't." 

With one healthy season on the heels of seven seasons with at least one trip to the MLB IL/DL, I'm not willing to bet that he will be available for more games than Mahle, Gray, Castillo, Montas, Ober, Kershaw, or just about any other pitcher in MLB.

In fact, according to research by people much smarter than you or I, he is a higher injury risk than most pitchers as he has thrown more high velocity pitches this season than most other pitchers.

That said, I am will to bet that, when he is on the mound, he will be better than almost all other SP per IP.

There are players who truly do have some sort of genetic inferiority regarding soft-tissue injuries, but identifying that data in the course of a career can be almost impossible.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

This kind of proves the axiom "every pitcher is injury prone until he isn't."

Either it will rain tomorrow, or it won't.  Everything's 50/50.

I continue to believe that some teams have better analytics than 50/50, where it comes to projecting player durability, and that our Twins lag the field in it.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

 If they wanted, their entire infield could be rookies or second year players next year. Plus Wallner and Larnach in the outfield. The pitching staff could be sixty percent second year players in the starters. I think it's graduation that is effecting the ranking.

Every team in baseball could make the same claim. Every team has an entire infield (2 even!) at AA and AAA.

There's no trick to playing rookies. The trick is playing rookies who are better than other MLB players. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Not to mention that comparing Berrios and Rogers to 2 MVPs is a little ridiculous to start with.

Nobody is comparing those players.

It’s that the winning organizations are willing to live with the risk of the player walking away at the end of the season without feeling the need to get something for them. In exchange for not trading the player, the team competes for a World Series. 

 

[tony&rodney]

The post discusses the risk inherent in bold and aggressive moves.

Is there a consensus that the Twins have made any bold and aggressive moves?

FWIW, I do agree with the title. Seattle does too.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Nobody is comparing those players.

It’s that the winning organizations are willing to live with the risk of the player walking away at the end of the season without feeling the need to get something for them. In exchange for not trading the player, the team competes for a World Series. 

 

Were the Twins competing for World Series titles last year or this year? If they had both Berrios and Rogers this year would they be at 100 wins? Did the Twins trade away guys in 2019 or 2020 when they were winning? 

It's a bad comparison in basically everyway, and I pointed out multiple of the reasons it's a bad comparison in that post. The context of those 4 player's situations is completely ignored in that post. And now you're actively ignoring the same context. The Twins were the last place team in the worst division in baseball last year. Ignoring that and pretending they should've held onto Berrios because that's what "winning organizations" do feels quite disingenuous to me.

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, h2oface said:

Still ignoring you…….. especially since you think Judge has won an MVP.

What would you like to bet that Aaron Judge wins the MVP award in 2022? I'll take any bet you want. You suggested it makes sense to compare the Yankees not trading Aaron Judge in the middle of a division winning season while he's literally playing like the MVP and very well might win the triple crown in the AL and the Twins trading Berrios during a completely and totally lost season with another one on the horizon that was likely also going to be a massive struggle with or without him. It's a bad analogy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

12 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 

Were the Twins competing for World Series titles last year or this year?

I assume so? Why wouldn't you assume so?

But it's not just the two moves of trading Berrios and Rogers - it's a pattern of moves, it's a philosophy of moves.

I don't know why people spend so much time pushing back at readership. If people spent more time trying to unpack the philosophy, maybe we could figure out what's going on, and get somewhere.  

Phrases like "changes in the organization are needed" or "this front office is not beyond criticism" are not actually criticisms. 

[Mike Sixel]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Every team in baseball could make the same claim. Every team has an entire infield (2 even!) at AA and AAA.

There's no trick to playing rookies. The trick is playing rookies who are better than other MLB players. 

Perhaps that was my point. Kiriloff if healthy. Arraez ( not that young) or Martin or Gordon at second. Lewis at short. Miranda at third. Wallner and Larnach have looked legit. I'm not sure your point at all, frankly. What was your point? Mine was they have graduated a lot of top ranked rookies lately, which is why the farm ranking is dropping. What was your point?

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I assume so? Why wouldn't you assume so?

But it's not just the two moves of trading Berrios and Rogers - it's a pattern of moves, it's a philosophy of moves.

I don't know why people spend so much time pushing back at readership. If people spent more time trying to unpack the philosophy, maybe we could figure out what's going on, and get somewhere.  

Phrases like "changes in the organization are needed" or "this front office is not beyond criticism" are not actually criticisms. 

I'm not telling anyone not to push back on the front office or suggesting changes aren't needed. I'm pointing out that the 4 players/moves that you and h2o are/were comparing have far more context than either of you are willing to acknowledge.

When the Twins traded Jose Berrios were they in legitimate contention for the 2021 World Series title? Not asking if they went into the season trying to contend, but on the day he was traded did they have a legitimate chance of winning the 2021 World series? They were 43-61 and in last place in the central. Trying to compare that to not trading Aaron Judge in a season where he's going to win the MVP when the Yankees were 70-35 at the deadline and 11 games up in their division is disingenuous. Those are not comparable situations. Then, forecasting ahead, did it look like they had a reasonable chance to fill their many, many roster holes for 2022 and have a legitimate chance at contending for the 2022 World Series?

What are the other moves beyond those 2 that create this pattern and philosophy of moves? Trading away vets you aren't going to be able to afford to resign during seasons when you aren't a good team isn't unique to the Twins, or a bad strategy. It's actually pretty global, especially amongst teams that can't/won't spend $200+ million on payroll. But back on July 25th, 2016, when the Yankees were 51-48 and in 4th place in their division, they traded away Aroldis Chapman. Why would they do that when winning organizations are willing to hold onto their players because it gives them a chance to win the World Series? Or is it that the strategy of trading players in a season you're not competing is actually the right strategy? 

I'm pushing back on you 2 because I believe you've failed in your attempt to unpack the philosophy and are ignoring all context in trying to compare things so they fit your narrative. Provide actually comparable situations and I won't push back. These are simply bad comparisons you 2 are attempting to make.

[Mike Sixel]

13 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Nobody is comparing those players.

It’s that the winning organizations are willing to live with the risk of the player walking away at the end of the season without feeling the need to get something for them. In exchange for not trading the player, the team competes for a World Series. 

 

The Yankees can also just buy great players if needed. That context seems important. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not telling anyone not to push back on the front office or suggesting changes aren't needed. I'm pointing out that the 4 players/moves that you and h2o are/were comparing have far more context than either of you are willing to acknowledge.

When the Twins traded Jose Berrios were they in legitimate contention for the 2021 World Series title? Not asking if they went into the season trying to contend, but on the day he was traded did they have a legitimate chance of winning the 2021 World series? They were 43-61 and in last place in the central. Trying to compare that to not trading Aaron Judge in a season where he's going to win the MVP when the Yankees were 70-35 at the deadline and 11 games up in their division is disingenuous. Those are not comparable situations. Then, forecasting ahead, did it look like they had a reasonable chance to fill their many, many roster holes for 2022 and have a legitimate chance at contending for the 2022 World Series?

What are the other moves beyond those 2 that create this pattern and philosophy of moves? Trading away vets you aren't going to be able to afford to resign during seasons when you aren't a good team isn't unique to the Twins, or a bad strategy. It's actually pretty global, especially amongst teams that can't/won't spend $200+ million on payroll. But back on July 25th, 2016, when the Yankees were 51-48 and in 4th place in their division, they traded away Aroldis Chapman. Why would they do that when winning organizations are willing to hold onto their players because it gives them a chance to win the World Series? Or is it that the strategy of trading players in a season you're not competing is actually the right strategy? 

I'm pushing back on you 2 because I believe you've failed in your attempt to unpack the philosophy and are ignoring all context in trying to compare things so they fit your narrative. Provide actually comparable situations and I won't push back. These are simply bad comparisons you 2 are attempting to make.

Because your line of thinking raises more questions than it answers. 

How could the Twins not think they could win in 2021 after winning the division in 2019 and 2020?

If the Twins were not planning to win in 2022, and that’s why they traded Berrios and Rogers, then… why sign Correa? Why trade away prospects at the deadline? Why trade Chase Petty for Sonny Gray if they were never planning to make a run in 2022?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Because your line of thinking raises more questions than it answers. 

How could the Twins not think they could win in 2021 after winning the division in 2019 and 2020?

If the Twins were not planning to win in 2022, and that’s why they traded Berrios and Rogers, then… why sign Correa? Why trade away good prospects? Why trade Chase Petty for Sonny Gray if they were never planning to make a run in 2022?

You don't seem to be arguing the point at all. They didn't trade berrios until they were out of it in 21. Who says they weren't trying to be competitive this year? They didn't trade any veterans away at the deadline, which is the point. I am baffled at this reply.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Because your line of thinking raises more questions than it answers. 

How could the Twins not think they could win in 2021 after winning the division in 2019 and 2020?

If the Twins were not planning to win in 2022, and that’s why they traded Berrios and Rogers, then… why sign Correa? Why trade away good prospects? Why trade Chase Petty for Sonny Gray if they were never planning to make a run in 2022?

Again, I'm not talking about going into the 2021 season, I'm talking about the day they traded Berrios. I don't know how more plainly to state that. I mean I literally gave you their record on the day they traded him. At that point in the season did you think they should be acting as if they were going to win the 2021 World Series? Because that's the argument you're making when you compare that trade to not trading Judge this year.

Did you notice that everyone the Twins traded for since 2021, outside of Fulmer, are also under control for 2023? Correa fell in their lap and allowed them to appease fans by spending to their budget, and gave them a season to sell him on the Twins organization and perhaps sign him long-term. They traded Rogers for a starter. Drastically underestimated the injury risk of that starter, but they were attempting to fill a bigger need by adding a guy who would throw 150+ innings for a guy who would throw half that. And they apparently think Pagan is actually good, which is clearly a miss on their part.

Not finding any difficult questions to answer here.

[Karbo]

23 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Seems doubtful since they weren't really doing it before this year (and seemingly turned to it as a response to nobody wanting to come here).

Starting pitchers have averaged more innings per start under Rocco than the typical MLB SP during his tenure. 

And yet not a single starting pitcher on this staff will have enough innings to qualify for "the leaders board"

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Again, I'm not talking about going into the 2021 season, I'm talking about the day they traded Berrios. I don't know how more plainly to state that. I mean I literally gave you their record on the day they traded him. At that point in the season did you think they should be acting as if they were going to win the 2021 World Series? Because that's the argument you're making when you compare that trade to not trading Judge this year.

Did you notice that everyone the Twins traded for since 2021, outside of Fulmer, are also under control for 2023? Correa fell in their lap and allowed them to appease fans by spending to their budget, and gave them a season to sell him on the Twins organization and perhaps sign him long-term. They traded Rogers for a starter. Drastically underestimated the injury risk of that starter, but they were attempting to fill a bigger need by adding a guy who would throw 150+ innings for a guy who would throw half that. And they apparently think Pagan is actually good, which is clearly a miss on their part.

Not finding any difficult questions to answer here.

Good teams don’t trade their best players. 

That’s about as clear and concise as I can make it. The rest is just lawyering. 

 

 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Good teams don’t trade their best players. 

That’s about as clear and concise as I can make it. The rest is just lawyering. 

 

 

The Twins haven't been a good team in the last 2 years! I don't know how to make it more clear and concise. That's the entire point here. You're suggesting they should be acting like last year's World Series winner and one of the top 3 or 4 World Series favorites this year when they were 73-89 last year and on their way to another under .500 record this year. They aren't a good team! I don't understand what you're suggesting. The Twins haven't been a good team for 2 years now. 

The Yankees traded Chapman (the best closer in the game at the time). The Red Sox traded Mookie Betts. The Rays trade basically everybody. Those are some pretty solid teams from the last half decade plus. Context matters. Pretending a 73-89 team should be acting like a good team is ignoring all context. That's not "lawyering," it's being realistic. Putting your head in the sand and pretending you aren't a bad team is not how you become a good team, it's how you stay a bad team. Look at Colorado.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins haven't been a good team in the last 2 years! … Putting your head in the sand and pretending you aren't a bad team is not how you become a good team, it's how you stay a bad team. 

Ok well the front office also thinks they are a good team, or else they wouldn’t have traded away all these prospects. So, their heads must be in the sand too. Maybe we should direct more of our ire at them. 

[insagt1]

Wow--this subject has resulted in a lot of posts--lots of opinions and thoughts and analyses. And thats good. Gotta find something provocative to discuss as the season ends. I'm a big fan of this.

You never know how a trade will work out. No one has that crystal ball. You never know how prospects will pan out, until they hit the field of battle. In April (as a fan of both Twins and O's) I don't think I would have guessed that in September Rutchman, Henderson and Stowers would be making such a huge impact on the O's revival (52-110 last year to a probable .500 or better team this year) Meanwhile down on the farm for the Twins we have had Curly Larry and Moe...making zero impact on the Twins success this season, when injuries ripped the team apart. We had to wait and see how this played out.

The trades the Twins made to try and improve could have worked. but injuries reared their heads on too many of them. then incredible poor performances on others just sank the team. Then the guys who were left to pick up the pieces for the most part have run out of gas. Arraez and Miranda have slowed to a crawl, with nobody to pick them up except perhaps Correa and Gordon. The bullpen acquisitions have not worked out as hoped...Pagan, Fulmer, Lopez...haven't done the job, just to name 3.  Its easy to Monday Morning Quarterback especially when things haven't worked out, but who knew?

I think the Twins did try, but this season has been IMO, a perfect storm of horrendous injuries and players having miserable seasons. Somehow they stayed afloat longer than most expected, but eventually Cleveland figured it out and in head to head play, they schooled  us when it counted. For the last month you could take hitters 5-9 and they wouldn't win many games playing for the Saints.  The risks the FO took this season I guess you could say didn't grab the brass ring, but I hope they aren't shy going into the off season when trying to figure out all the tea leaves. Also, what to do with several chronically injured players who may never really make it back.

tough season.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

And yet not a single starting pitcher on this staff will have enough innings to qualify for "the leaders board"

All of 46 are sitting on that mark across MLB right now. That stat clearly isn't useful at this point. 

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Ok well the front office also thinks they are a good team, or else they wouldn’t have traded away all these prospects. So, their heads must be in the sand too. Maybe we should direct more of our ire at them. 

I think this is a really bad take on things. I'm not absolving the FO of anything, and I hope I see better this coming off-season. The one thing they could have (should have) done differently was to build a better BP from the start. And I think their evaluation of injury risk needs better scrutiny. And I'm not sure they will ever sign a contract for the best pitcher in FA, so, I wouldn't expect much ever in that market. I don't know how good they thought we were, but I think the trades did shore up issues, or should have. I'm not sure why you are still so upset with the Berrios trade, other than he was one of your favorite players, but that was exactly the right move at the right time. Having Berrios this season wouldn't have made us better, imo, and time will tell if the players we received in return will, eventually, make a good team better. Over all, I think in a lost season, you trade vets for prospects for the future; in a season where you are competing (at the deadline), you trade prospects for proven players who will help now. I think they did that last year and this. That it hasn't worked out better I don't think is reliant on how good they thought we were, but more in their evaluations.